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Old 12-22-2013   #21
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
Assuming what you say is true, then taking Matthews is a no-brainer if they can't trade down a couple of spots.
Exactly but also with the new CBA, the team can franchise tag a player much more cheaply annually after the 5 year deal and keep costs down. I could see this with Watt in 2015. Another reason for Matthews over a QB is either a second contract or a franchise tag for a tackle much less than a QB.
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Old 12-22-2013   #22
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

Does the lack of mobility + injury of Mettenberger cause any of you doubt on drafting him?
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Old 12-22-2013   #23
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

Clowney or Matthews with the #1 pick. I prefer Clowney, because I think we are gong to be in a 4-3 next year and I could see him and Watt being unstoppable.
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Old 12-22-2013   #24
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Clowney at 1-1 and QB at 2-1. I also see us switching to a 4-3 next year.
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Old 12-22-2013   #25
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
The 1st draft pick has never been as valuable as it is this year, IMO. Disregarding the talent pool, factoring all other known variables, this is a GREAT year to have the top pick. Here's why:

1. New CBA, which severely restrains rookie contracts... Not only will the Texans have an opportunity to grab the top talent entering the NFL, but they can control that player at a very reasonable cap hit for the next five years. Also, because of the lower contract, they may choose a player at any position (other than K,P, FB, or C) without overpaying for an NFL position... Before the new CBA, the amount of money given to the top pick limited the choice to: QB, LT, Pass rusher. No longer is that the case.

2. 3 Day Draft- Now that the draft is spread over 3 days, the Texans will be perched as the first pick, with 24 hours to field offers and review their board, not only for the 1st and 4th rounds, but also for the 1st pick of round two.

3. Quicker draft clock between picks- further makes the 1st pick of rounds 2 and 4 more valuable because of their opportunity to deliberate and also their opportunity to field potential trade offers.


** The Texans need to either lose at Tennessee next week or Washington must win at NYGiants for the Texans to get this scenario... However, even if the Redskins and Texans tie, the Texans will be in a great position. Though they will lose out on 1.1, they will still own picks 2.1 and probably 4.1 (depending on Atlanta) due to the manner by which the NFL rotates picks with teams with equal records.

I realize I am basically dressing up a terd in a tuxedo, but this is what I am left to be excited about as a Texan fan this year.
Uuuumm no it isn't the most valuable than it's ever been before. That is something you made up because you are excited that the Texans have the first pick, but it's a ton of talented guys just like any season. I haven't heard hardly any experts describe this draft as one of the best ever either. They usually say that when there are two or three top QB's that could all be potential #1 types of picks.
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Old 12-22-2013   #26
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by kingtexan View Post
Clowney or Matthews with the #1 pick. I prefer Clowney, because I think we are gong to be in a 4-3 next year and I could see him and Watt being unstoppable.
The Texans aren't touching Clowney.
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Old 12-22-2013   #27
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by kingtexan View Post
Clowney or Matthews with the #1 pick. I prefer Clowney, because I think we are gong to be in a 4-3 next year and I could see him and Watt being unstoppable.
Clowney has character issues and Matthews would be a RT for us. I'm not sure a RT at 1.1 would be a good idea.
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Old 12-22-2013   #28
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

to address the OP.
the value of the first pick is solely with the talent at the spot.

The 3 points you mentioned equate to very little of why the 1st pick is more or less valuable.

I still think there are a number of players worthy of the number 1 pick.

There may not be a luck, manning etc but they are extremely rare
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Old 12-22-2013   #29
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by Texecutioner View Post
Uuuumm no it isn't the most valuable than it's ever been before. That is something you made up because you are excited that the Texans have the first pick, but it's a ton of talented guys just like any season. I haven't heard hardly any experts describe this draft as one of the best ever either. They usually say that when there are two or three top QB's that could all be potential #1 types of picks.
You are missing my point.

I am speaking of the institutional positioning of the first pick now vs. the institutional positioning prior to 2011. I realize that, at this point, there is no consensus #1 everyone is clamoring for.

I happen to think some of that is simply noise by the media to ramp up interest in coverage, etc... and the information often does not accurately reveal the subjective view of the real, NFL decision-makers that will actually determine the value of these draft choices. I think, with a few exceptions, NFL team draft grades are more varied and distinct from one another than we are led to believe... In other words, an honest poll of NFL GMs would indicate a large spread of draft grades and rankings, even among the top 10 players. From the Texan perspective in 2014, their only issue is whether there are a few NFL teams who covet that first pick (whatever their reasons may be)... and how much to the Texans, themselves, want the guy rated #1 on their list.

In the end, though, we do not (and will not) know how NFL teams value these players... We may have some idea, but those conclusions are based on conjecture, leaked information without a named source, and a lot of misinformation by those same, anonymous people...

So, dealing with what we know for certain regarding the value of the first pick:

1. it will be more valued than before 2011 because of the significantly lower financial commitment.

2. the lower financial commitment broadens the range of player positions that can be selected with that pick.

3. The extension of the draft weekend into 3 days will enable the Texans to field offers for pick #33 for almost 24 hours instead of only 10 minutes- also, they can reorder their board and build a 2nd day strategy around that, and around prospective trades... All of that is objectively true. And, as was true in previous years, they will have that opportunity on the final day of the draft (4th round pick), which is also a good thing.
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Old 12-22-2013   #30
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

IMHO, at this juncture, if Bortles goes back to school you try to trade back and if you can't trade back, you take Clowney and hope he doesn't turnout to be Aundray Bruce.
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Old 12-22-2013   #31
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by aussie_texan View Post
to address the OP.
the value of the first pick is solely with the talent at the spot.
That simply is not true in the salary cap era... You are saying, essentially, that a player with a contract which consumes 4% of a team's cap has the same value as an identical player which consumes 8% of a team's cap room... Of course that is not true. It is the reason why teams, during free agency, knowingly sign a lesser talent for less money- they view that decision to have better value. Before 2011, teams were trapped into a system that deemed that pick (regardless of the talent pool) worthy of a $50+ million financial commitment... Now, the system still determines the value of that pick, but the determined value is about 50% of what is was a few years ago... hence, it is much more valuable than it would have been prior to the new CBA.
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Old 12-22-2013   #32
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

dalemurphy does have a point about the CBA as it pertains to rookie contracts. I don't think it makes the pick more attractive per se but it certainly makes Clowney more attractive.

He is the surefire most talented player in the draft. In years past he would be a much larger financial risk than he is this year. That could possibly open the door for a trade.
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Old 12-22-2013   #33
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by badboy View Post
Does the lack of mobility + injury of Mettenberger cause any of you doubt on drafting him?
Myself I am not worried about it. ACL's get repaired and his season speaks for itself. I'm comfortable with what he's done this year as my basis for selecting him while at the same time I'd be stalking his doctors and making sure everything was on schedule. I know the Texans have a pretty sketchy history of handling injured players starting with 1-1 in the expansion draft all the way up to Ed Reed this season but sooner or later we're going to be on the right side of one of these things. They need to do everything possible to be certain he's coming along the way he should be. If he isn't then I'd start looking at another QB, most likely McCarron.

But if everything checks out with his rehab I'm fine with it. If I do the Matthews in the first round/Metternberger in the second round thing I'm planning on bringing in a veteran to mentor him anyway. He'll be someone I'm ok with starting early on if I have to (but I really don't want to have to).
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Old 12-22-2013   #34
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by kingtexan View Post
Clowney or Matthews with the #1 pick. I prefer Clowney, because I think we are gong to be in a 4-3 next year and I could see him and Watt being unstoppable.
I'm sure people following the Lions said something similar about how unstoppable Suh and Fairley were going to be. It hasn't worked out that way. They are at times everything you would expect and at other times less than the sum of their respective parts and it's not because they don't have enough athletic freaks in the bunch. It's because they have questionable motors.

Clowney is as likely to be a guy with a questionable motor as he is to be the other half of some unstoppable DL. We know what Watt's motor is like. Clowney has done nothing to show that he's that kind of player. Just that he has the ability to be that kind of player.

For all we know he's the second "Mario" we'll take 1-1 in less than a decade.
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Old 12-22-2013   #35
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

Look at this:

2009:
1.1 Matthew Stafford = 6yrs.- $72 million ($42 mil guaranteed)
1.15 Brian Cushing = 5yrs.- $18 million ($10.5 mil guaranteed)

2010
1.1 Sam Bradford = 6yrs.- $78 million ($50 mil guaranteed)
1.15 JPierre Paul = 5yrs. - $20 million ($11.5mil guaranteed)

** If you were a GM with the 15th pick in the draft, how much would you have to love Bradford or Stafford to be willing to trade pick #15 in a package and take on that monster of a contract- In years where there is no stud QB, the disparity is even more remarkable. Look at how much less the financial commitment is only 14 picks later- that ratio is so out of whack relative to the drop in talent that nobody wanted anything to do with the 1st pick.

Here was last season:
2013
1.1 Eric Fisher = 4 yrs (with club option 5th year)- $22 million
1.15 Vaccarro = 4 yrs -$10.5 million

** not only is the dollar figure much, much more reasonable, but the chasm difference between the cost of pick #1 and #15 is much smaller and more in line with likely talent disparity. How could this change not make a huge difference in the value of the 1st pick in the draft?
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Old 12-22-2013   #36
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by badboy View Post
Does the lack of mobility + injury of Mettenberger cause any of you doubt on drafting him?
Not anymore than the durability concerns I have for Bridgewater.
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Old 12-22-2013   #37
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Not anymore than the durability concerns I have for Bridgewater.
yeah, he's such a wuss
Quote:
Louisville junior quarterback Teddy Bridgewater said Monday that he has taken a $10 million insurance policy to protect himself against a career-ending injury.

Bridgewater is projected by many to be a top-five pick in next year's NFL draft. Last season, he attempted to play through several injuries, including to his ankle and thumb.

Bridgewater said he has a high tolerance for pain that came from watching his mother battle and overcome cancer.

"I saw my mom struggle to get out of bed," Bridgewater said. "I saw my mom's hair fall out. As far as I'm concerned, no pain is too tough to deal with."

Bridgewater also said he's been working on his stamina and footwork this offseason by training in the boxing ring in South Florida. Bridgewater said he's been watching video footage of legendary Mike Tyson fights on YouTube.
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Old 12-22-2013   #38
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
The 1st draft pick has never been as valuable as it is this year, IMO. Disregarding the talent pool, factoring all other known variables, this is a GREAT year to have the top pick. Here's why:

1. New CBA, which severely restrains rookie contracts... Not only will the Texans have an opportunity to grab the top talent entering the NFL, but they can control that player at a very reasonable cap hit for the next five years. Also, because of the lower contract, they may choose a player at any position (other than K,P, FB, or C) without overpaying for an NFL position... Before the new CBA, the amount of money given to the top pick limited the choice to: QB, LT, Pass rusher. No longer is that the case.

2. 3 Day Draft- Now that the draft is spread over 3 days, the Texans will be perched as the first pick, with 24 hours to field offers and review their board, not only for the 1st and 4th rounds, but also for the 1st pick of round two.

3. Quicker draft clock between picks- further makes the 1st pick of rounds 2 and 4 more valuable because of their opportunity to deliberate and also their opportunity to field potential trade offers.


** The Texans need to either lose at Tennessee next week or Washington must win at NYGiants for the Texans to get this scenario... However, even if the Redskins and Texans tie, the Texans will be in a great position. Though they will lose out on 1.1, they will still own picks 2.1 and probably 4.1 (depending on Atlanta) due to the manner by which the NFL rotates picks with teams with equal records.

I realize I am basically dressing up a terd in a tuxedo, but this is what I am left to be excited about as a Texan fan this year.
Atlanta already has four wins. We cannot finish with 4 wins. The "best" we can do is 3 wins and tie with one other team, Washington. In that scenario, Houston and Washington (St. Louis 1st round) will alternate the first pick in each successive round. So we would get 2.1, 4.1, & 6.1.

If we lose to Tenn next week, we will be the only 2-win team, so we will have the first pick in every round. So to boil that down, no matter what, we will select first in the second, fourth, and sixth rounds. We can also pick first in the first, third, fifth, and seventh rounds by losing, otherwise we will pick second in those four rounds.

Last edited by CharloTex; 12-23-2013 at 12:35 AM.
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Old 12-23-2013   #39
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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For the third time in franchise history, a new coach will be handed a #1 pick... hopefully 3rd time is the charm
With Rick Smith selecting that HC. Doubtful
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Old 12-23-2013   #40
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by PapaL View Post
Clowney at 1-1 and QB at 2-1. I also see us switching to a 4-3 next year.
Dunno why people think this. They're built as a 3-4. if they hire o'brien, rick wil suggest dc candidates. He might even bring crennell or pluck mangini.
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