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Old 12-22-2013   #1
dalemurphy
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Default Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

The 1st draft pick has never been as valuable as it is this year, IMO. Disregarding the talent pool, factoring all other known variables, this is a GREAT year to have the top pick. Here's why:

1. New CBA, which severely restrains rookie contracts... Not only will the Texans have an opportunity to grab the top talent entering the NFL, but they can control that player at a very reasonable cap hit for the next five years. Also, because of the lower contract, they may choose a player at any position (other than K,P, FB, or C) without overpaying for an NFL position... Before the new CBA, the amount of money given to the top pick limited the choice to: QB, LT, Pass rusher. No longer is that the case.

2. 3 Day Draft- Now that the draft is spread over 3 days, the Texans will be perched as the first pick, with 24 hours to field offers and review their board, not only for the 1st and 4th rounds, but also for the 1st pick of round two.

3. Quicker draft clock between picks- further makes the 1st pick of rounds 2 and 4 more valuable because of their opportunity to deliberate and also their opportunity to field potential trade offers.


** The Texans need to either lose at Tennessee next week or Washington must win at NYGiants for the Texans to get this scenario... However, even if the Redskins and Texans tie, the Texans will be in a great position. Though they will lose out on 1.1, they will still own picks 2.1 and probably 4.1 (depending on Atlanta) due to the manner by which the NFL rotates picks with teams with equal records.

I realize I am basically dressing up a terd in a tuxedo, but this is what I am left to be excited about as a Texan fan this year.
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Old 12-22-2013   #2
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
The 1st draft pick has never been as valuable as it is this year, IMO. Disregarding the talent pool, factoring all other known variables, this is a GREAT year to have the top pick.
I appreciate your enthusiasm about polishing a turd, but the old saying "Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?" comes to mind....
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Old 12-22-2013   #3
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

More proof that Smithiak are geniuses.
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Old 12-22-2013   #4
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

It's just our luck we'd pick the year when nobody is worth that first pick.

So, "disregarding the talent pool" is just about right
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Old 12-22-2013   #5
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

For the third time in franchise history, a new coach will be handed a #1 pick... hopefully 3rd time is the charm
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Old 12-22-2013   #6
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
It's just our luck we'd pick the year when nobody is worth that first pick.

So, "disregarding the talent pool" is just about right
Atleast there's more talent than last year, if only marginally.
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Old 12-22-2013   #7
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
I realize I am basically dressing up a terd in a tuxedo, but this is what I am left to be excited about as a Texan fan this year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
I appreciate your enthusiasm about polishing a turd, but the old saying "Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?" comes to mind....
nobody knows what ain't shinola better than dalemurphy
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Old 12-22-2013   #8
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by IDEXAN View Post
Atleast there's more talent than last year, if only marginally.
Clowney is definitely a freak.
The question is whether a team is willing to take the risk concerning his character.
Does playing along side JJ Watt and together with Cushing provide the motivation for him to fulfill his potential?

Or maybe there's a team out there willing to take that risk and trade the farm for him?
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Old 12-22-2013   #9
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

I am vey sure, that if we get the first pick we will either draft a QB or trade back. I can`t really see a scenario, in which we take Clowner, Barr or Matthews with the first pick.

You don`t have many options to get a franchise QB - so either you think that there is a QB that can be your franchise QB, then you take him. If you don`t, chances are high that someone else thinks, that Bridgewater is their guy - and they will pay a high price to get him.
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Old 12-22-2013   #10
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by LikeMike View Post
I am vey sure, that if we get the first pick we will either draft a QB or trade back. I can`t really see a scenario, in which we take Clowner, Barr or Matthews with the first pick.

You don`t have many options to get a franchise QB so either you think that there is a QB that can be your franchise QB, then you take him. If you don`t, chances are high that someone else thinks, that Bridgewater is their guy - and they will pay a high price to get him.
I keep hearing that term "franchise QB". What the hell is a 'franchise QB'? Whatever that definition is . . . certainly doesn't apply to this year's crop, I know that.

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Or maybe there's a team out there willing to take that risk and trade the farm for him?
Fingers crossed.
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Old 12-22-2013   #11
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
I keep hearing that term "franchise QB". What the hell is a 'franchise QB'? Whatever that definition is . . . certainly doesn't apply to this year's crop, I know that.



Fingers crossed.
I don't really think there is either, but espin and other media will be hyping someone so strong after the combine that some fool gm will buy in and there it is.... just home it's not ricky buying in
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Old 12-22-2013   #12
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by LikeMike View Post
I am vey sure, that if we get the first pick we will either draft a QB or trade back. I can`t really see a scenario, in which we take Clowner, Barr or Matthews with the first pick.

You don`t have many options to get a franchise QB - so either you think that there is a QB that can be your franchise QB, then you take him. If you don`t, chances are high that someone else thinks, that Bridgewater is their guy - and they will pay a high price to get him.
That is what many are hoping + Matthews could then fall to us. I also like Kouandijo who could develop into a very good LT just don't see him at RT starter next year as I can see Jake.
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Old 12-22-2013   #13
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

If there isn't a franchise QB in the draft, then get Matthews so we can protect whatever QB we do play with.
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Old 12-22-2013   #14
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
I keep hearing that term "franchise QB". What the hell is a 'franchise QB'? Whatever that definition is . . . certainly doesn't apply to this year's crop, I know that.



Fingers crossed.
Well, I don`t watch much college football, so I don`t know what Im talking about here - but Ive read some very high praise about Bridgewater. As high as "outside of Luck he is the best college QB prospect of the last 10 years."

The combine will tell a lot, but of course you don`t take him, if you are not convinced in his ability.

But when you like him you take him, even if you think Clowney or Matthews is the better player - simply because a QB is that much harder to get and more valuable. I am sure the Texans go in this draft wanting to get a QB and hoping, that there is one they feel good about.

And I am sure that there will be offers for the first pick - some team will love Bridgewater or Clowney and be ready to offer 2 firsts and a second for him at the least...
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Old 12-22-2013   #15
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
It's just our luck we'd pick the year when nobody is worth that first pick.

So, "disregarding the talent pool" is just about right
That is thinking based on the previous system. Until the 2011 CBA, the cost was so steep for a 1st round pick as the pick approached #1 overall that a top pick was only seen as a good thing to have in a year when there was one or two clear, top players... The difference between pick #1 and pick #10 might total $20-$25 million over the course of a 5 year deal (that's $4-$5million per season on the cap).. No longer... Now the difference between #1 overall and #31 equals about $4 million per years.

So, in any year, it is the team's advantage at pick #1 to weigh any possible option- trading down, drafting any player available, negotiating with players before the draft, etc... and there is zero penalty because the cap number is reasonable and only slightly more expensive than the subsequent picks.

If you are correct, and there is no clear top choice, the Texans still get the opportunity to grab whatever player they most covet without any other franchise dictating their options... Also, they can weigh their prospective selection against various trade down options (which they will certainly receive)... some teams will undoubtedly covet a player enough to offer significant compensation for that top choice.

Again, beyond 1.1, the Texans will also have further advantages in the draft with picks 2.1 and 4.1- beyond simply picking higher than everyone else, though it is not lost on me how much disappointment it took to get into this position... yet, here we are.
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Old 12-22-2013   #16
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by Thorn View Post
If there isn't a franchise QB in the draft, then get Matthews so we can protect whatever QB we do play with.
Possible this year, because the contract would be roughly 5 years/$25 million- a reasonable amount for a RT... However, in 2010, the contract would be more like 6 years/ $48 million- which is much more difficult to justify and manage in the cap era for a tackle- with Duane Brown already on the roster and under contract for 5 years.

Again, this is a much, much better situation than what the Texans had in either 2002 or 2006.
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Old 12-22-2013   #17
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
Possible this year, because the contract would be roughly 5 years/$25 million- a reasonable amount for a RT... However, in 2010, the contract would be more like 6 years/ $48 million- which is much more difficult to justify and manage in the cap era for a tackle- with Duane Brown already on the roster and under contract for 5 years.

Again, this is a much, much better situation than what the Texans had in either 2002 or 2006.
Assuming what you say is true, then taking Matthews is a no-brainer if they can't trade down a couple of spots.
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Old 12-22-2013   #18
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Originally Posted by LikeMike View Post
I am vey sure, that if we get the first pick we will either draft a QB or trade back. I can`t really see a scenario, in which we take Clowner, Barr or Matthews with the first pick.

You don`t have many options to get a franchise QB - so either you think that there is a QB that can be your franchise QB, then you take him. If you don`t, chances are high that someone else thinks, that Bridgewater is their guy - and they will pay a high price to get him.
The Texans must have a clear plan this off-season to address QB in the draft- And, they should necessarily plan and expect to overpay for him (in terms of where he is drafted)... BPA doesn't work when the team does not have a QB. Now, that doesn't mean they must take a QB with 1.1... Instead, they could trade down... Or, take someone else at 1.1 but have a clear plan and appealing plan B, to go get the guy they like later in the 1st round or in the 2nd...

Perhaps they love Mettenberger... And, in their mock drafts he went no higher than 23, as low as 67, with an average draft position of 40... On draft day, they need to have a plan that can get them into the early 20s, even if it is likely he falls to them at 33. That's what I mean by "overpaying". Fortunately, they have the power in the draft order and with a couple compensatory picks to execute any plan they would like without losing the opportunity to build talent and depth elsewhere on the roster.

Frankly, I am relieved that there is not a consensus #1... Sometimes, I think public opinion can have too much influence on a team that finds itself in a position like this... reassessing its organizational structure, its football philosophy, and also attempting to return excitement to the fan base... If there was ever a year for a non-activist owner like McNair to be tempted to make a force a draft pick for financial reasons, branding, etc... this would be that moment... Vince Young would be a Houston Texan this time around, I think.
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Old 12-22-2013   #19
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

We might have Matthews dad on the coaching staff or at least on the payroll by the time the draft rolls around.

I'm for taking him in the first round if we can't get some dumbass GM to give us more picks. I take him and then grab Mettenberger in the 2nd never looking back. Spend most of the rest of the draft trying to sort out the holes in the defense and then search out a reasonably priced veteran QB to compete with and mentor Mettenberger and either Keenum or Yates (new HC's preference).
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Old 12-22-2013   #20
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Default Re: Value of first pick in 2014 Draft for Texans

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Assuming what you say is true, then taking Matthews is a no-brainer if they can't trade down a couple of spots.
I'm not opposed to that at all... I don't watch a ton of college football, nor have I done much research on the talent entering the draft, so I don't have a strong opinion yet.

Still, I love the idea of knowing that both tackle positions will likely be a strength on this team for the next 5 years or more... I have liked what I have seen of Matthews this year... My bigger issue is that I am becoming sold on the pro-Bridgewater arguments and really like the little I have seen from him. I want nothing to do with Clowney (too big a risk, IMO, to take without addressing the central personnel issue in Houston- QB)... So, based on early draft discussions, if we don't trade down, I'd want Matthews or Bridgewater.
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