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Old 12-08-2013   #1
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Default Doppelalysis Part 2

Thanks for reading!

In a previous Post I layed out the question of whether I thought Teddy Bridgewater had the makings of a potential Franchise Quarterback. Here is the link: http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/sho...31#post2265331

In this post , I am going to explore whether it is worth it to trade down if you think the man is a franchise QB.

In order to test this out, I propose we recreate the RGIII trade. To refresh, the RGIII trade meant a swap of 1st round picks(2->6) in 20912, an additional second rounder in 2012, first rounder in 2013, and first in 2014. So, we will recreate this using known franchise QBs in order to see if the haul was better than the franchise QB. I am going to test this theory using Peyton Manning, Aaron Rogers, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, and Tom Brady. I am not including QBs taken after 2009 simply because we need time to see the drafted players actually play in the NFL and need data. Thus Luck, Newton, Bradford, Griffin, Russell, or Kaepernick were not considered for the analysis.

Now, clearly not all the QBs in this analysis were the #1 overall pick. However, for the sake of clarity, we are going to pretend that they could have been. We will then make the trade from #1 to #5. We will then take the team in that #5 spot to see who else was taken in the following spots. Of course it’s not perfect, but its give you a more realistic window into time rather than trying to do a best case scenario cherry pick.

And now, as Bugs Bunny would say “This is it, you'll hit the heights , And oh what heights we'll hit, On with the show this is it!”

Peyton Manning:
Originally Drafted 1998, pick 1, round 1.
New picks: 1998: 1st: Curtis Enis rb, 2nd: Tony Parish SS
1999: 1st: Cade McNown, QB
2000: 1st Brian Urlacher: LB

Analysis: Clearly it was better to stick with Peyton. As good as Urlacher was, its better to have a HOF QB than a HOF LB.

Tom Brady:
Originally drafted 2000: pick 199, round 6. New Selection: pick 1, round 1.
New Picks: 2000 1st Corey Simon DT, 2nd Todd Pinkson WR.
2001: 1st: Freddy Mitchell, WR
2002: 1st Lito Shepherd, CB

Analysis: Corey Simon and Lito Shepherd both became probowlers. Simon went to 1 probowl and Shepherd went to 2. Shepherd was also a 4 time All Pro. A fine career. But, he isn’t Tom Brady. And wouldn’t you prefer Tom Brady over the combination of Corey Simon and Lito Shepherd? I would.


Drew Brees:
Originally Drafted 2001, pick 32, round 2. New Selection: pick 1, round 1.
New picks: 2001: 1st: LaDainian Tomlinson rb, 2nd: Algae Crumpler, TE
2002: 1st: TJ Duckett: RB
2003: 1st Willis McGahee, RB

Analysis: This is a tougher one, because you end up with possible HOF Tomlinson as well as probowlers McGahee and Crumpler. That is a very impressive hall and probably about as well as you can hope for. Yet, in a QB driven league, the franchise QB is still more important. Franchise QB is still going strong, are the others? Not exactly.

Aaron Rogers:
Originally Drafted 2005, pick 24, round 1. New Selection: pick 1, round 1.
New picks: 2005: 1st: Carnell “Cadillac” Williams rb, 2nd: Barrett Rudd LB
2006: 1st: Davin Jospeh OG
2007: 1st Gaines Adam DE

Analysis: Quite honestly, any way you look at it, this was a fairly piss poor return for Aaron Rogers. Cadillac never materialized, Rudd was a good not great LB, and Adams had an unspectacular career before an unfortunately untimely death . Joseph has had 1 probowl season, despite being one the highest paid OGs in the league. Easily the edge goes to the Discount Double Check guy.

Matt Ryan:
Originally Drafted 2008, pick 3, round 1. New Selection: pick 1, round 1.
New picks: 2008: 1st: Glenn Dorsey DT, 2nd: Brandon Flowers CB
2009: 1st: Tyson Jackson DE
2010: 1st Gerald McCoy DT

Analysis: It’s actually kind of funny to see that many selections on the DL yet none of them really panned out. McCoy has been to one Probowl but none of them really became the dominant DL players they were supposed to be. While he has had difficulty in the playoffs, I’d still take Matty Ice over this group any day and twice on Sunday.

Matthew Stafford: Originally Drafted 2009, pick 1, round 1.
New picks: 2009: 1st Mark Sanchez QB, 2nd: Brian Robiskie
2010: 1st: Joe Haden CB
2011: Julio Jones WR

Analysis: This is probably the toughest one. Joe Haden and Julio Jones are both young stars and can certainly help your football team. You could even go so far as to say that Haden may be a cornerstone of the Defense and Julio Jones a building block on the WR corp. Yet, as good as Haden is, he can only do so much from the corner. Jones is a great WR, but he needs a QB to throw him the ball. Even if he becomes as great as an Andre Johnson, the question still becomes: would you rather have a potential HOF WR or Franchise QB. I think i have to go franchise QB. AJ has been beyond great, but as great as he has been, in the 11 years he has been in town, the team has been to the playoffs in 2 years and has never gotten back the 2nd round.
At the end, I still take the franchise QB over the pieces picked up in trade.

So, what have we learned. Based on this, it clearly tells me that if you think a guy is a franchise QB you must take him. While you may get a probowler or possibly even a HOF player, it is unlikely you will find enough pieces to overcome the value of the franchise QB.

So, if you view Teddy Bridgewater as a franchise QB, it’s a no-brainer, you absolutely must take him.
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Old 12-08-2013   #2
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Default Re: Doppelalysis Part 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by Doppelganger View Post
Thanks for reading!

In a previous Post I layed out the question of whether I thought Teddy Bridgewater had the makings of a potential Franchise Quarterback. Here is the link: http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/sho...31#post2265331

In this post , I am going to explore whether it is worth it to trade down if you think the man is a franchise QB.

In order to test this out, I propose we recreate the RGIII trade. To refresh, the RGIII trade meant a swap of 1st round picks(2->6) in 20912, an additional second rounder in 2012, first rounder in 2013, and first in 2014. So, we will recreate this using known franchise QBs in order to see if the haul was better than the franchise QB. I am going to test this theory using Peyton Manning, Aaron Rogers, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, and Tom Brady. I am not including QBs taken after 2009 simply because we need time to see the drafted players actually play in the NFL and need data. Thus Luck, Newton, Bradford, Griffin, Russell, or Kaepernick were not considered for the analysis.

Now, clearly not all the QBs in this analysis were the #1 overall pick. However, for the sake of clarity, we are going to pretend that they could have been. We will then make the trade from #1 to #5. We will then take the team in that #5 spot to see who else was taken in the following spots. Of course it’s not perfect, but its give you a more realistic window into time rather than trying to do a best case scenario cherry pick.

And now, as Bugs Bunny would say “This is it, you'll hit the heights , And oh what heights we'll hit, On with the show this is it!”

Peyton Manning:
Originally Drafted 1998, pick 1, round 1.
New picks: 1998: 1st: Curtis Enis rb, 2nd: Tony Parish SS
1999: 1st: Cade McNown, QB
2000: 1st Brian Urlacher: LB

Analysis: Clearly it was better to stick with Peyton. As good as Urlacher was, its better to have a HOF QB than a HOF LB.

Tom Brady:
Originally drafted 2000: pick 199, round 6. New Selection: pick 1, round 1.
New Picks: 2000 1st Corey Simon DT, 2nd Todd Pinkson WR.
2001: 1st: Freddy Mitchell, WR
2002: 1st Lito Shepherd, CB

Analysis: Corey Simon and Lito Shepherd both became probowlers. Simon went to 1 probowl and Shepherd went to 2. Shepherd was also a 4 time All Pro. A fine career. But, he isn’t Tom Brady. And wouldn’t you prefer Tom Brady over the combination of Corey Simon and Lito Shepherd? I would.


Drew Brees:
Originally Drafted 2001, pick 32, round 2. New Selection: pick 1, round 1.
New picks: 2001: 1st: LaDainian Tomlinson rb, 2nd: Algae Crumpler, TE
2002: 1st: TJ Duckett: RB
2003: 1st Willis McGahee, RB

Analysis: This is a tougher one, because you end up with possible HOF Tomlinson as well as probowlers McGahee and Crumpler. That is a very impressive hall and probably about as well as you can hope for. Yet, in a QB driven league, the franchise QB is still more important. Franchise QB is still going strong, are the others? Not exactly.

Aaron Rogers:
Originally Drafted 2005, pick 24, round 1. New Selection: pick 1, round 1.
New picks: 2005: 1st: Carnell “Cadillac” Williams rb, 2nd: Barrett Rudd LB
2006: 1st: Davin Jospeh OG
2007: 1st Gaines Adam DE

Analysis: Quite honestly, any way you look at it, this was a fairly piss poor return for Aaron Rogers. Cadillac never materialized, Rudd was a good not great LB, and Adams had an unspectacular career before an unfortunately untimely death . Joseph has had 1 probowl season, despite being one the highest paid OGs in the league. Easily the edge goes to the Discount Double Check guy.

Matt Ryan:
Originally Drafted 2008, pick 3, round 1. New Selection: pick 1, round 1.
New picks: 2008: 1st: Glenn Dorsey DT, 2nd: Brandon Flowers CB
2009: 1st: Tyson Jackson DE
2010: 1st Gerald McCoy DT

Analysis: It’s actually kind of funny to see that many selections on the DL yet none of them really panned out. McCoy has been to one Probowl but none of them really became the dominant DL players they were supposed to be. While he has had difficulty in the playoffs, I’d still take Matty Ice over this group any day and twice on Sunday.

Matthew Stafford: Originally Drafted 2009, pick 1, round 1.
New picks: 2009: 1st Mark Sanchez QB, 2nd: Brian Robiskie
2010: 1st: Joe Haden CB
2011: Julio Jones WR

Analysis: This is probably the toughest one. Joe Haden and Julio Jones are both young stars and can certainly help your football team. You could even go so far as to say that Haden may be a cornerstone of the Defense and Julio Jones a building block on the WR corp. Yet, as good as Haden is, he can only do so much from the corner. Jones is a great WR, but he needs a QB to throw him the ball. Even if he becomes as great as an Andre Johnson, the question still becomes: would you rather have a potential HOF WR or Franchise QB. I think i have to go franchise QB. AJ has been beyond great, but as great as he has been, in the 11 years he has been in town, the team has been to the playoffs in 2 years and has never gotten back the 2nd round.
At the end, I still take the franchise QB over the pieces picked up in trade.

So, what have we learned. Based on this, it clearly tells me that if you think a guy is a franchise QB you must take him. While you may get a probowler or possibly even a HOF player, it is unlikely you will find enough pieces to overcome the value of the franchise QB.

So, if you view Teddy Bridgewater as a franchise QB, it’s a no-brainer, you absolutely must take him.
It's been said over and over that if you have a chance at drafting a franchise QB and you don't have one, you do it. The question is, is he a franchise QB? I can't wait to see who will be making that decision.
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Old 12-08-2013   #3
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Default Re: Doppelalysis Part 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by Doppelganger View Post

So, if you view Teddy Bridgewater as a franchise QB, it’s a no-brainer, you absolutely must take him.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mussop View Post
It's been said over and over that if you have a chance at drafting a franchise QB and you don't have one, you do it. The question is, is he a franchise QB? I can't wait to see who will be making that decision.
Cant disagree with the thought process .... I just don't know if Teddy Bridgewater or any of the other QB's in this draft are "Franchise QB's."


I don't see the traits that make one a franchise QB from any of them.
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Old 12-08-2013   #4
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Default Re: Doppelalysis Part 2

Of the biggest issue with this analysis is that the team that drafted LT2 would not have kept drafting RBs, but to point of whether or not the relative value I think it a worthwhile exercise.
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Old 12-08-2013   #5
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Default Re: Doppelalysis Part 2

Excellent work as always Doppelbockster

Fully endorse your conclusion based off exercise, my own evaluation as well as the obvious fact Texan Fans deserve better play from QB position. Teddy is a bright, young man full of potential. If Texans do select him #1 overall that will validate his franchise status.
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Old 12-08-2013   #6
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Default Re: Doppelalysis Part 2

Good work. Compelling analysis.

An FYI, probably a typo - Lito Sheppard was all pro once not four times.
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Old 12-08-2013   #7
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Default Re: Doppelalysis Part 2

Very good read. MSR. I'm all for Teddy as well. I think a lot of people think too much on the pick because they know we can't screw this one up. I believe because he's not the unanimous #1 pick like Luck, they think the chances of him being a franchise QB are slim. This guy isn't placed in the top 5 of mock drafts for nothing, though. And it's not like he came out of no where. He's improved well over his Sophmore year which was a pretty darn good year. I believe he has all the make up to be a franchise QB. Just gotta roll the dice.

And maybe get our version of T.Y. Hilton for him. We definitely need speed.
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Old 12-10-2013   #8
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Default Re: Doppelalysis Part 2

Nice doppeljob. You put a lot of doppelwork into this. Good read.
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Old 12-11-2013   #9
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Default Re: Doppelalysis Part 2

Great work! The biggest discussion is how posters/people feel about him. I for one think he's franchise qb material. Also ,let's not forget even luck and peyton weren't unified #1 picks. Aside from irsay and a few others,a lot of people thought rg3 could become a better pro because he had more tools. Peyton was heavily challenged by ryan leaf. Until the personal interviews,many thought leaf had a bigger upside.

The closest I think we can use as an example is the dolphins in the matt ryan draft. Many people on here wat to take matthews and solidify the line then draft a qb in the 2nd or 3rd rd. Well, parcells,the great builder of teams tried this. He drafted the lt(long) and in the 2nd rd drafted henne,who had more talent than matt ryan. Well,it didn't take long to see parcells and ireland missed big time. Long was a all pro gtackle when healthy,but henne is a journeyman. Meanwhile,aside from this season,ryan has like the 4th most wins of any qb.
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Old 12-13-2013   #10
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Default Re: Doppelalysis Part 2

I like Matt Ryan, and would have take him.
But did he carry the team this year?
No, LOL
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Old 12-13-2013   #11
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Default Re: Doppelalysis Part 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by Doppelganger View Post
Drew Brees:
Originally Drafted 2001, pick 32, round 2. New Selection: pick 1, round 1.
New picks: 2001: 1st: LaDainian Tomlinson rb, 2nd: Algae Crumpler, TE
2002: 1st: TJ Duckett: RB
2003: 1st Willis McGahee, RB

Analysis: This is a tougher one, because you end up with possible HOF Tomlinson as well as probowlers McGahee and Crumpler. That is a very impressive hall and probably about as well as you can hope for. Yet, in a QB driven league, the franchise QB is still more important. Franchise QB is still going strong, are the others? Not exactly.
I'm not sure I get what you're saying here. The #1 overall pick in the 2001 draft was held by the Chargers, but they traded it off to the Falcons, who grabbed Vick. Clearly, the Chargers didn't value Vick as a franchise QB, and they were correct. They picked up LT with their new first rounder (5th overall) and got Tay Cody with the extra pick (wasted). But they grabbed Brees with their 2nd rounder. So not only were they able to pick up a franchise QB, they still got a HOF player in LT and a 3rd round pick additional. The fact that they wasted the 3rd rounder and gave up prematurely on Brees has no bearing on the initial decision to draft them. Trading down was the correct move.

I'd also be curious to see this exercise with all the "franchise" QBs that have busted. The Texans were convinced Carr was going to be a franchise QB. Would be willing to bet they'd prefer a trade down in hindsight, right? And what about the Rivers-Manning trade in 2004?
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Old 12-13-2013   #12
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Default Re: Doppelalysis Part 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
I'm not sure I get what you're saying here. The #1 overall pick in the 2001 draft was held by the Chargers, but they traded it off to the Falcons, who grabbed Vick. Clearly, the Chargers didn't value Vick as a franchise QB, and they were correct. They picked up LT with their new first rounder (5th overall) and got Tay Cody with the extra pick (wasted). But they grabbed Brees with their 2nd rounder. So not only were they able to pick up a franchise QB, they still got a HOF player in LT and a 3rd round pick additional. The fact that they wasted the 3rd rounder and gave up prematurely on Brees has no bearing on the initial decision to draft them. Trading down was the correct move.

I'd also be curious to see this exercise with all the "franchise" QBs that have busted. The Texans were convinced Carr was going to be a franchise QB. Would be willing to bet they'd prefer a trade down in hindsight, right?
Kiper said before the 2002 draft that if Brees was there , he'd be the 1st pick . I wouldn't touch a guy with bad mechanics that early but I think it was the hair they were after .

SI had a diary and write up about Carr at the Senior Bowl . It was an omen .
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Old 12-16-2013   #13
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Default Re: Doppelalysis Part 2

Thanks for putting the work into this. It's caused me to reconsider my draft preferences.
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Old 12-16-2013   #14
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Default Re: Doppelalysis Part 2

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
I like Matt Ryan, and would have take him.
But did he carry the team this year?
No, LOL
Well, their defense was terrible. Their best player on that bad defense is Weatherspoon and he was out for an extended period of time.
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Old 12-20-2013   #15
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Default Re: Doppelalysis Part 2

Do a follow up poll for this Doppelganger. One that asks "Is Teddy Bridgewater a Franchise QB?"

The choices should be something like

1> Yes, I am certain that Teddy Bridgewater is a Franchise QB.
2> I'm not positive but I believe Teddy Bridgewater is a Franchise QB.
3> I have no idea whether Teddy Bridgewater is a Franchise QB.
4> I'm not positive but I don't believe that Teddy Bridgewater is a Franchise QB.
5> No, I am certain that Teddy Bridgewater is not a Franchise QB.

Just something I'd be curious to see.
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Old 12-20-2013   #16
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Default Re: Doppelalysis Part 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hervoyel View Post
Do a follow up poll for this Doppelganger. One that asks "Is Teddy Bridgewater a Franchise QB?"

The choices should be something like

1> Yes, I am certain that Teddy Bridgewater is a Franchise QB.
2> I'm not positive but I believe Teddy Bridgewater is a Franchise QB.
3> I have no idea whether Teddy Bridgewater is a Franchise QB.
4> I'm not positive but I don't believe that Teddy Bridgewater is a Franchise QB.
5> No, I am certain that Teddy Bridgewater is not a Franchise QB.

Just something I'd be curious to see.
I think TB may play a long time but that is not my definition of "franchise" so I go #5
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Old 12-20-2013   #17
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Default Re: Doppelalysis Part 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hervoyel View Post
Do a follow up poll for this Doppelganger. One that asks "Is Teddy Bridgewater a Franchise QB?"

The choices should be something like

1> Yes, I am certain that Teddy Bridgewater is a Franchise QB.
2> I'm not positive but I believe Teddy Bridgewater is a Franchise QB.
3> I have no idea whether Teddy Bridgewater is a Franchise QB.
4> I'm not positive but I don't believe that Teddy Bridgewater is a Franchise QB.
5> No, I am certain that Teddy Bridgewater is not a Franchise QB.

Just something I'd be curious to see.
I would think you would have to define what franchise guy means exactly, but I like that idea.
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Old 12-20-2013   #18
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Default Re: Doppelalysis Part 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hervoyel View Post
Do a follow up poll for this Doppelganger. One that asks "Is Teddy Bridgewater a Franchise QB?"

The choices should be something like

1> Yes, I am certain that Teddy Bridgewater is a Franchise QB.
2> I'm not positive but I believe Teddy Bridgewater is a Franchise QB.
3> I have no idea whether Teddy Bridgewater is a Franchise QB.
4> I'm not positive but I don't believe that Teddy Bridgewater is a Franchise QB.
5> No, I am certain that Teddy Bridgewater is not a Franchise QB.

Just something I'd be curious to see.
1> Yes, I am certain that Teddy Bridgewater is a Franchise QB.

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