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Old 12-18-2013   #61
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

This conversation probably fits better here:


Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
As WolverineFan said in another thread why not take Bridgewater or Bortles 1st and then a RT 2nd?

Bridgewater is not Luck but Matthews is not Pace or Boselli either.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hervoyel View Post
Which one is closer to that standard though? I think Matthews has a better chance of approaching Boselli than Bridgewater has of getting within spitting distance of Luck.

I'm hoping we get to deal out of the top spot and pick up a few extra picks along the way but if we don't then that's how I would do it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Well the real question isn't two unattainables, it is the drop off in what is attainable.

So we have no Luck or Boselli in this draft. What is the drop off from Bridgewater/Bortles to Mettenberger v. Matthews to an Erving or Richardson?

There are rare exceptions but usually the drop off on QBs is a cliff whereas the drop off on OT's is a relative gentle slope. We're talking about getting another guy akin to Duane Brown v. getting one like Brock Osweiller, Jimmy Clauson, Pat White, etc. Virtually every year there are OTs taken after the top of the 2nd who pan out while only once in a while do the QBs pan out.
The reason I am not including Clowney in the discussion is primarily because of injury concern.
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Old 12-18-2013   #62
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by badboy View Post
Based on your hours of watching college tackles and research please identify the right tackle you would so easily find available at top of third that starts.
Can you identify a first round RT that didn't start his career as a failed LT? Guys like Fisher and Jockel played RT, but with the intent of moving them to left the following year. Weren't drafted to move to the money position five years later when the current franchise tackle got old, which seems to be a justification for taking Matthews.

Again, this board wouldn't even be considering an RT first overall if this name wasn't Matthews.
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Old 12-18-2013   #63
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
No, but I'm perfectly happy riding out 2014 with 2 great OTs, and QBs they get in the 2nd round.

Does the fanbase really want to ride out 2014 with a QB reach with the 1st overall pick?

Not me.
A second round QB will most likely ride the bench for half a season, more if he is a raw developmental guy.

So, back to crappy veteran QB we go. If they do throw them in, we could have the next Clausen or Hennie.
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Old 12-18-2013   #64
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

IMHO I don't think Mettenberger gets past #18. And with Houston, Jacksonville, Oakland, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Tennessee all currently picking in the Top 10 I do doubt seriously if Mett gets out of the the Top 10.
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Old 12-18-2013   #65
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texian View Post
IMHO I don't think Mettenberger gets past #18. And with Houston, Jacksonville, Oakland, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Tennessee all currently picking in the Top 10 I do doubt seriously if Mett gets out of the the Top 10.
How many QBs are you projecting in the first half of the 1st? and in the 1st overall?
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Old 12-18-2013   #66
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by Playoffs View Post
At this early point, I'd gauge that both have a significant bust potential compared to Matthews. I'd rather have the guy who's filling his spot nicely in 3 years versus a guy like Sam Bradford who I was "supposed" to draft in that slot but has you thinking about replacing him 3/4 years later.
I get the whole draft value argument, but I'd rather avoid Amobi Okoye over slot value. And I personally think RTs are pretty important pieces. At this point, though, it's all guesses on top of guesses imo.
I remember the same things being said about Robert Gallery. There are no guarantees in life. Taking a tackle over a QB or DE (especially this team) doesnt make alot of sense unless you have a crystal ball and can see the future.
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Old 12-18-2013   #67
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

Quote:
Originally Posted by The1ApplePie View Post
A second round QB will most likely ride the bench for half a season, more if he is a raw developmental guy...
Or he could be like Russell Wilson?

It's a deep QB draft, you never know... Plus, whatever HC/OC we hire might be a guy who'll roll with a rookie.
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Old 12-18-2013   #68
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by Playoffs View Post
Can you guarantee Teddy & Clowney won't be busts? At this early point, I'd gauge that both have a significant bust potential compared to Matthews. I'd rather have the guy who's filling his spot nicely in 3 years versus a guy like Sam Bradford who I was "supposed" to draft in that slot but has you thinking about replacing him 3/4 years later.

If you don't think RT was important to Kubiak's offense this year you weren't watching Derek Newton*. Maybe RT will be less important in the new OC's offense, but I doubt it...

Examining Pressure: Are Left Tackles Overvalued?


* Derek Newton is rated 71st/78 OTs overall and 74th/78 in pass protection. (>25% snaps) by PFF.

I get the whole draft value argument, but I'd rather avoid Amobi Okoye over slot value. And I personally think RTs are pretty important pieces. At this point, though, it's all guesses on top of guesses imo.
I'm not saying RT isn't an important position, more that it's not worth a number 1 pick, or really a top 20 pick. If you guys want to spend a late 1st on it, I could go for that. But if we're talking about Matthews, then we are talking a top 5 pick at this point, and I think it's a waste to spend that kind of a pick on a guy who will be the de facto RT.

There's no question this organization has tried to address the RT position on the cheap. Derek Newton was a 7th round pick, Brenan Williams was a late 3rd with injury history, David Quessenberry (who may not be a OT in the NFL) was a 6th, Ryan Harris was a street FA that had a bad injury history, Rashad Butler was a late 3rd round pick FA that was OK, but not great.

But let's not get caught up in the fact that Smithiak couldn't fix the position, other teams address it without spending 1st round picks on it, and that's why I'm saying we should be able to do the same.

The Patriots current RT Marcus Cannon was a 5th round pick.
The Lions are tied this year for the least amount of sacks given up with 16 total, and their RT this year is UDFA LaAdrian Waddle from Texas Tech.
Up until last year, 4th round pick Jermon Bushrod was starting for the Saints. This week the Saints are starting rookie 2nd round pick Teron Armistead at LT, so we'll see how he does in action. Their current RT is 7th round pick Zach Strief.
The Bears have given up the 3rd least sacks this year, and they are starting rookie 5th round pick Jordan Mills at RT. Can you believe that? A team with Jay Cutler at QB is giving up the 3rd least sacks in the league. Crazy...

Other teams address RT on the cheap through Free Agency. The Colts got Gosder Cherilus, the Rams got Jake Long, the Ravens picked up Bryant McKinnie (2 years 7m) for their Super Bowl run last year. It's really not that uncommon, and teams do have success with it.

I could go on, but my point is that RT really shouldn't require a 1st round pick to be a competent player. If we can't do that with our 3-1 pick or later, then we need a new GM. If Duane Brown was in the last year of his deal, I would be much more open to the idea, but he's not. He's here for the next few years, so we don't need a LT in waiting.
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Last edited by Dutchrudder; 12-18-2013 at 01:53 PM. Reason: old pats depth chart :(
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Old 12-18-2013   #69
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
How many QBs are you projecting in the first half of the 1st? and in the 1st overall?
If Bortles and Bridgewater declare I expect there gone. Add Manziel, Carr and Mettenberger as possible 1st half and/or 1st rd QBs and Murray and McCarron as potential 1st RD QBs. With the exceptions of Newton in 2011 and Luck & Griffin in 2012 the 2014 is shaping up to be a better overall QB class than the 11 draft and as good as the 12 draft. In those drafts 4 QBs where selected in the first rd. Being that the 2013 was such a poor draft for QBs the 2014 shaping up as bigger than normal and a better than average class of QBs, this could be a catchup draft on QBs for teams needing a QB. 7 of the top 10 teams could use a QB so this could be a top heavy QB draft. and with that I think I have covered all the bases. I can see teams like Arizona, Chicago and Cleveland trading up in RD 1 for a QB. And the Jets having a do over.

Last edited by Texian; 12-18-2013 at 02:44 PM.
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Old 12-18-2013   #70
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
How many QBs are you projecting in the first half of the 1st? and in the 1st overall?
Question wasn't directed at me but I'll give my opinion. The ranges are very wide because all it takes is one team to fall in love and take a guy high.

Bridgewater - Top 3
Bortles - Between 3-15
Mettenberger - Between 10-25
Carr - Between 10-35
Manziel - Between 15-40
McCarron - Between 30-45
Hundley - I think he goes back to school. But I think he would go in the top half of the 2nd.
Boyd - 2nd round

Everyone else is 3rd round or later. Murray may sneak into the 2nd if Hundley goes back to school.

I could see a max of three QBs going in the top 15 and four going in the top 20. Four or five total going in the first round.

Bridgewater, Bortles, and Mettenberger all as first round locks. Carr a highly likely first rounder. That's four. So five if Manziel slides in.
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Old 12-18-2013   #71
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Blake View Post
I remember the same things being said about Robert Gallery. There are no guarantees in life. Taking a tackle over a QB or DE (especially this team) doesnt make alot of sense unless you have a crystal ball and can see the future.
The lesson to be learned about Robert Gallery is don't draft OL with little feet, they can't anchor.
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Old 12-18-2013   #72
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
What's the point of having a RT if he has no one worth protecting?

What's the point in having the first pick if you can't confidently draft an above average (at least) starter at multiple positions?

What's the point in drafting if you aren't willing to take a little risk?

We have been drafting ****ty in the later rounds for years. Most teams find their RT in free agency or later rounds of the draft. There's no reason why the Texans can't do that, or shouldn't try. You rarely see a team spend 2 first round picks on both tackle positions, because it's just too damn much to spend on a position that should be filled for less resources. If you can't find a competent RT in rounds 3-1 though 7 then you need a new GM (which I am in favor of!).

Think of it this way, how much does the average RT cost in the NFL? How much dose the average strong-side pass rusher cost? How much does the average QB cost?

Figure out where to spend picks based on scarcity and costs so you don't over-allocate resources to one position. Picking Matthews, IMO, is overallocating resources to the OT position. It would be a reactionary pick due to the poor play at RT, rather than a calculated pick based on salary-cap football.
You can get someone worth protecting in the second round. Your RT (and future LT) can protect that guy and guys who come in the years after (if that proves necessary) for years to come. This RT/LT comes from a family of NFL players with epic longevity and quality.

You insist on looking at Matthews at 1-1 as a pick for a RT and wasted opportunity right now when in reality it's an investment in two positions (one now and the other later). You still have three positions on the line that are filled with your late-round bargain guys. You will lose Duane Brown at some point and when you do you'll slide Matthews over to take his place.

It's the safe play and if the trade down isn't there (which I would very much like to see. This is a draft with no clear 1-1 player) then I think it's a good pick. By the time you're having to pay Matthews what he's worth you'll probably be seeing Duane Brown go out the door for more money or Duane Brown in decline and pointing him toward the door.

You want to gamble on the guy you take in the first round. I would prefer to gamble on the guy I take in the second round. Granted it's all a gamble to some degree and we both know that.
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Old 12-18-2013   #73
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
I'm not saying RT isn't an important position, more that it's not worth a number 1 pick, or really a top 20 pick. If you guys want to spend a late 1st on it, I could go for that. But if we're talking about Matthews, then we are talking a top 5 pick at this point, and I think it's a waste to spend that kind of a pick on a guy who will be the de facto RT.

There's no question this organization has tried to address the RT position on the cheap. Derek Newton was a 7th round pick, Brenan Williams was a late 3rd with injury history, David Quessenberry (who may not be a OT in the NFL) was a 6th, Ryan Harris was a street FA that had a bad injury history, Rashad Butler was a late 3rd round pick FA that was OK, but not great.

But let's not get caught up in the fact that Smithiak couldn't fix the position, other teams address it without spending 1st round picks on it, and that's why I'm saying we should be able to do the same.

The Patriots Matt Light and Sebastian Vollmer were both mid-2nd picks.
The Lions are tied this year for the least amount of sacks given up with 16 total, and their RT this year is UDFA LaAdrian Waddle from Texas Tech.
Up until last year, 4th round pick Jermon Bushrod was starting for the Saints. This week the Saints are starting rookie 2nd round pick Teron Armistead at LT, so we'll see how he does in action. Their current RT is 7th round pick Zach Strief.
The Bears have given up the 3rd least sacks this year, and they are starting rookie 5th round pick Jordan Mills at RT. Can you believe that? A team with Jay Cutler at QB is giving up the 3rd least sacks in the league. Crazy...

Other teams address RT on the cheap through Free Agency. The Colts got Gosder Cherilus, the Rams got Jake Long, the Ravens picked up Bryant McKinnie (2 years 7m) for their Super Bowl run last year. It's really not that uncommon, and teams do have success with it.

I could go on, but my point is that RT really shouldn't require a 1st round pick to be a competent player. If we can't do that with our 3-1 pick or later, then we need a new GM. If Duane Brown was in the last year of his deal, I would be much more open to the idea, but he's not. He's here for the next few years, so we don't need a LT in waiting.
I get all of that. Bet you seem to missing the point that you take the BPA on the board, no matter what the position is.

Answer me this. Why would you want to risk reaching for a QB with the 1st overall, if you think Rick Smith is as bad as you say he is? Why would you want to reach for a player at all with the 1st pick?
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Old 12-18-2013   #74
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

http://walterfootball.com/draft2014.php
Quote:
1. Houston Texans: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville

I wrote this in my NFL Power Rankings regarding the No. 1 pick: Mel Kiper appeared on Sunday NFL Countdown and said that the No. 1 overall pick will come down to three players: Jadeveon Clowney, Anthony Barr and Jake Matthews. If the 2014 NFL Draft were held today, Clowney would probably be the pick. But this reminds me of the 2011 NFL Draft. Both Kiper and Todd McShay thought a defensive lineman would be the top choice (Kiper said Nick Fairley, while McShay suggested Da'Quan Bowers), yet the Panthers ultimately fell in love with Cam Newton.

The same thing will probably happen to the Texans unless they sign Jay Cutler or trade for Kirk Cousins. Houston will have five months to become smitten with Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr (probably not because of David's failure), Johnny Manziel or even Brett Hundley. One of those signal-callers will probably be the No. 1 pick.

Given how important the quarterback position is, Teddy Bridgewater or another signal-caller will the No. 1 pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, barring an acquisition of Cutler or Cousins, or something like that. There's really no discussion. Clowney, Barr and Matthews wouldn't get Houston's franchise back into the playoffs. A franchise quarterback would. The Texans will talk themselves into drafting one of them.
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Old 12-18-2013   #75
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
I get all of that. Bet you seem to missing the point that you take the BPA on the board, no matter what the position is.

Answer me this. Why would you want to risk reaching for a QB with the 1st overall, if you think Rick Smith is as bad as you say he is? Why would you want to reach for a player at all with the 1st pick?
You seem to be missing the point where I never said you had to take BPA no matter what the position is. That may be your draft philosophy, but it's not mine and I wouldn't advocate it because no one would ever follow that 100% of the time anyways. You have to be able to weigh BPA vs Need and find a happy-medium.

Who said it had to be a QB at 1-1? I'd rather have Jadaveon Clowney, a top notch freak athlete pass-rushing prospect, than a RT (be it Matthews or Lewan or whomever). If Bridgewater grades out as a top 5 pick, and is expected to be a franchise NFL QB, then yeah, I'd take him. Why reach a few picks for a RT, when you can reach about the same relative amount of draft slots for a QB?

I don't really care if someone has the QB rated as a 92, but 4 other players are rated a 93-95. The QB position trumps all in this era of the NFL. If he's your guy, you take him, whether the draftniks think he should be the 1st pick, 10th pick, or 50th pick. It's only a "reach" based on a bunch of peoples projections at this point, but if the guy works out, then in retrospect it won't be a reach, and it won't really matter. It's even more of a gamble to trade back a few picks, expecting your guy to be there, only to have him taken a slot ahead of you because you got cute with the draft board projections.

We still have a lot of evaluating to go, but regardless of what these guys do in the combine, I think taking a RT in the top 20 is a waste. We need a QB or pass rusher with our first pick, there are plenty to grade and evaluate before we settle on one. Those are the two premium positions in this league, and what I think we should be spending our highest pick on.
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Old 12-18-2013   #76
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

Quote:
Originally Posted by bah007 View Post
Question wasn't directed at me but I'll give my opinion. The ranges are very wide because all it takes is one team to fall in love and take a guy high.

Bridgewater - Top 3
Bortles - Between 3-15
Mettenberger - Between 10-25
Carr - Between 10-35
Manziel - Between 15-40
McCarron - Between 30-45
Hundley - I think he goes back to school. But I think he would go in the top half of the 2nd.
Boyd - 2nd round

Everyone else is 3rd round or later. Murray may sneak into the 2nd if Hundley goes back to school.

I could see a max of three QBs going in the top 15 and four going in the top 20. Four or five total going in the first round.

Bridgewater, Bortles, and Mettenberger all as first round locks. Carr a highly likely first rounder. That's four. So five if Manziel slides in.
That looks far more likely to me. You have to go back 31 years to find a 6 QB 1st round and there has only been 1 5 QB draft since. The 6 QB draft wasn't one where there were questions whether any of them would be franchise QBs, it was an incredible talent draft with 3 future HOFers taken. That includes several years following QB poor drafts to where none were taken in the 1st. Four is a heavy QB draft.

IF all these QBs are taken then the talent at OT and elsewhere will get pushed down.
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Old 12-18-2013   #77
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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That looks far more likely to me. You have to go back 31 years to find a 6 QB 1st round and there has only been 1 5 QB draft since. The 6 QB draft wasn't one where there were questions whether any of them would be franchise QBs, it was an incredible talent draft with 3 future HOFers taken. That includes several years following QB poor drafts to where none were taken in the 1st. Four is a heavy QB draft.

IF all these QBs are taken then the talent at OT and elsewhere will get pushed down.
I think it's highly likely that Bridgewater and Bortles both go top 10. Mettenberger goes top 20. And Carr goes at the end of the 1st.

Once the top two guys are gone teams are going to be more likely to go BPA and wait it out and try for a QB in the 2nd unless they are just smitten with a certain prospect. Manziel is the wildcard. He could be the 3rd QB or the 6th QB off the board.
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Old 12-18-2013   #78
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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That just depresses the ever loving crap out of me, because I fear that is exactly what's gonna happen.
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Old 12-18-2013   #79
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
That looks far more likely to me. You have to go back 31 years to find a 6 QB 1st round and there has only been 1 5 QB draft since. The 6 QB draft wasn't one where there were questions whether any of them would be franchise QBs, it was an incredible talent draft with 3 future HOFers taken. That includes several years following QB poor drafts to where none were taken in the 1st. Four is a heavy QB draft.

IF all these QBs are taken then the talent at OT and elsewhere will get pushed down.
You have to take into account that QB contracts are extremely cheap in the draft now, thanks to the new CBA. They also include a team friendly 5th year option if they are drafted in the first round (I believe). I think this is going to lead to more questionable QB picks in the first round than previous years. Hell there were 4 QB's taken in 2010 (Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder) and for the most part, leading up to that draft most people figured that it might come down to Newton vs Gabbert but that it wasn't really that standout of a class.
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Old 12-18-2013   #80
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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You can get someone worth protecting in the second round.
Can you? Certainly. But the odds are not in your favor.


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You want to gamble on the guy you take in the first round. I would prefer to gamble on the guy I take in the second round. Granted it's all a gamble to some degree and we both know that.
Passing on Bridgewater in the 1st to take Mettenberger/McCarron/etc in the 2nd is just as much a gamble as just drafting Bridgewater.

Matthews seems to be the key here. Many people would like Matthews + another QB than Bridgewater + another OT. I don't see much difference between Matthews and the other OT's available.
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