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Old 12-18-2013   #41
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
Anyone advocating a RT in the 1st round should be fired from their pretend-GM job...
Just chewing the fat until we get some clarity, here. Who's the Head Coach? Who's the new Offensive Coordinator? Who's the Defensive Coordinator? Are we running ZBS or Power or some hybrid? Dink & dunk or downfield passing. 3-4, 4-3, 5-2?

I can't fit a QB into an unknown system, and I want to draft/prioritize front seven into a scheme. And what are we hearing from the "draft bowls", underwear Olympics, and especially the interviews & pro days?

So the clock isn't ticking yet on my pretend GM card. Waiting for Rick's phone call...
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Old 12-18-2013   #42
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by Playoffs View Post
Just chewing the fat until we get some clarity, here. Who's the Head Coach? Who's the new Offensive Coordinator? Who's the Defensive Coordinator? Are we running ZBS or Power or some hybrid? Dink & dunk or downfield passing. 3-4, 4-3, 5-2?

I can't fit a QB into an unknown system, and I want to draft/prioritize front seven into a scheme. And what are we hearing from the "draft bowls", underwear Olympics, and especially the interviews & pro days?

So the clock isn't ticking yet on my pretend GM card. Waiting for Rick's phone call...
I don't care what the scheme is, you don't take a RT at 1-1, unless you plan on losing your LT in the near future. Duane Brown's contract is not tradeable for several years, so he's not going anywhere. And again, if you have a GM that isn't capable of finding at least an average RT in rounds 3-7, then you need a new GM. It really shouldn't require so much of our draft ammo to fill the RT position.
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Old 12-18-2013   #43
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
And just where is written in stone somewhere that "franchise" QBs could only be gotten in the top of the first round? Was Tom Brady drafted in the first round? Was Drew Brees drafted in the 1st. What about Colin Kaepernick, or Russell Wilson?
It's not written anywhere. However, 75% of the starting QB's in the league were drafted in the 1st round. Now, can you find guys in other rounds? Sure. But the odds are against you.

I went through the numbers in a different thread last week. The odds of finding a franchise QB are astronomically higher in the 1st round and they get even better the higher you go up the draft order. Despite the bust rate being very high, it's still much lower than the bust rate for QB's drafted outside the 1st.

People love to point out Brees or Wilson, which is fine, but let's not act like that's the norm. It is a rare occurrence. For the most part, if you want a starting QB, you're using your 1st round pick to get him.

With all that said, I do agree with you about BPA. We should not take a QB just because he's a QB. He should be the best player. Taking a QB just because he's a QB will only add to that bust rate.
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Old 12-18-2013   #44
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
I would be OK with

Rd.1 Clowney/Barr
Rd.2 Bortles/Manziel/Mettenberger
Rd.3 Morgan Moses/James/Mewhort

That's value picks.
Mettenberger is the only guy that has a chance to last until #33. In that scenario, you're picking between Mettenberger, McCarron, Murray, etc.
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Old 12-18-2013   #45
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by WolverineFan View Post
Mettenberger is the only guy that has a chance to last until #33. In that scenario, you're picking between Mettenberger, McCarron, Murray, etc.
If you feel one of those guys are your guys then you could trade up using 2-1 and your 2015 1st depending on how far you wanted to trade up. For instance if Borltes fell to 15 would you trade a 2014 2nd/4th and a 2015 1st to pick Bortles? If you truly think Bortles is a franchise QB you do the trade.

Right now I just dont see a QB that's worth 1-1.
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Old 12-18-2013   #46
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by steelbtexan View Post
If you feel one of those guys are your guys then you could trade up using 2-1 and your 2015 1st depending on how far you wanted to trade up. For instance if Borltes fell to 15 would you trade a 2014 2nd/4th and a 2015 1st to pick Bortles? If you truly think Bortles is a franchise QB you do the trade.

Right now I just dont see a QB that's worth 1-1.
If I truly think Bortles is a franchise guy then I take him #1. Why would you trade picks this year and your 1st next year for a guy that you could just take #1?

I still don't understand that scenario and you've laid it out many times before. You can use your 1st this year on a QB or you can use your 2nd this year and 1st next year on a QB. Why would you choose the 2nd option?
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Old 12-18-2013   #47
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by Corrosion View Post
You are entitled to your opinion .... and in theory I don't disagree.


But QB being the greatest position of need .... Either there is one you feel is a franchise QB or not. If you feel he is the real deal you draft him.

If not .... then you have the #1 pick in the wrong damn year , tough luck.

I'd prefer to trade down because I don't believe there is a franchise QB in this draft and that none of the other players are worth taking (For this team) at #1 overall. I wouldn't touch Clowney in the first round , Barr is good player ... but over rated.

But .... to move down you have to have someone willing to move up.

If you cant move down and aren't taking Bridgewater .... Matthews is probably the safest pick in this draft. He fills a dire need and can eventually replace your franchise LT when he is cut , traded or retires.
Best player available. If that's a tackle, so be it. It's not like the team doesn't need a tackle as well. So you can pair need and BPA. That's a win-win scenario.

Oh yeah, people want to force the QB pick. The only way I buy the argument that you have to draft a QB high if you have that pick is if you are willing to give up on him after one season. Because the next year, you might have a high draft pick and a better QB might be available. I mean, we're all about getting a great QB, right? Or did we want to set the franchise back 2-4 years while they figure out if the last #1 guy was the right pick?

How long do you give a new QB? 6 games? 10 games? 2 years? 4 years? Or does it just depend on if the QB was someone you touted and wanted brought in?

:smfh:
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Old 12-18-2013   #48
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
Oh yeah, people want to force the QB pick. The only way I buy the argument that you have to draft a QB high if you have that pick is if you are willing to give up on him after one season. Because the next year, you might have a high draft pick and a better QB might be available. I mean, we're all about getting a great QB, right? Or did we want to set the franchise back 2-4 years while they figure out if the last #1 guy was the right pick?

How long do you give a new QB? 6 games? 10 games? 2 years? 4 years? Or does it just depend on if the QB was someone you touted and wanted brought in?

:smfh:
We all know this is about Keenum. Please take that to the Keenum threads.

And I mean that with no offense and please don't take it personally. But the guys here talking about drafting QB's have either a) given up on Keenum a while ago or 2) never thought he was the guy. The majority of the guys here probably think a 1st or 2nd round draft pick is more talented than Keenum and deserve more time to start and prove himself than an UDFA to so it's pointless to start all that.

FWIW, I agree about BPA and not forcing a QB. I do not think Matthews is BPA however.
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Old 12-18-2013   #49
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

I can tell already that come draft day the fur is going fly around here. It'll be hilarious.
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Old 12-18-2013   #50
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by WolverineFan View Post
If I truly think Bortles is a franchise guy then I take him #1. Why would you trade picks this year and your 1st next year for a guy that you could just take #1?

I still don't understand that scenario and you've laid it out many times before. You can use your 1st this year on a QB or you can use your 2nd this year and 1st next year on a QB. Why would you choose the 2nd option?
This is such a great post, it hits the nail on the head.

BPA for Texans has to be a QB they can insert into starting role & become face of the franchise. I get the whole maximize your pick leverage argument but if TB or Bortles is your guy, sign him & let's move this franchise forward.

First thing is finding a new coach then both underclassman have to declare bypassing Senior season for NFL.
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Old 12-18-2013   #51
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

Besides his last name the greatest thing about Jake is his versatility, both tackle positions & a knockout LG. So for his specific positions his skill set may be graded out as tops among all prospects but we all know which position can raise & lower a franchise quicker than any, lol.
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Old 12-18-2013   #52
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by WolverineFan View Post
We all know this is about Keenum. Please take that to the Keenum threads.
Actually, it's more about Carr than Keenum. Team gave the man 5 years to prove he wasn't it. And while fans largely agreed with each other that the last year was stupid, they didn't seem to mind giving him the first 3 at a minimum (myself included). I would hope we've learned from that.

This draft gives me a 2002 vibe where a bunch of QBs will be taken and they might all end up sucking. So if they take a QB in this draft, I want them to be willing to take another in 2015 if the need is there. Personally, I want them to take the best player available, whoever that is. If Bridgewater is at the top of everyone's board, then take Bridgewater. Don't force the pick, though. And recognize that the best rated QB of 2014 may not even be close to the best rated QB of 2015.
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Old 12-18-2013   #53
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by WolverineFan View Post
It's not written anywhere. However, 75% of the starting QB's in the league were drafted in the 1st round. Now, can you find guys in other rounds? Sure. But the odds are against you.

I went through the numbers in a different thread last week. The odds of finding a franchise QB are astronomically higher in the 1st round and they get even better the higher you go up the draft order. Despite the bust rate being very high, it's still much lower than the bust rate for QB's drafted outside the 1st.

People love to point out Brees or Wilson, which is fine, but let's not act like that's the norm. It is a rare occurrence. For the most part, if you want a starting QB, you're using your 1st round pick to get him.

With all that said, I do agree with you about BPA. We should not take a QB just because he's a QB. He should be the best player. Taking a QB just because he's a QB will only add to that bust rate.
Guys like Kaepernick and Wilson were taken later, but were seen as developmental prospects at the time. Kaep sat on the bench his first year, as Wilson was supposed to do, before it turned out Flynn sucked.

Romo was undrafted, Brady was a 6th rounder. Both were expected to ride the bench, maybe develop, maybe not. But history dictates that a good QB has to come in the first round, usually high.

There isn't an NFL starting QB on the roster right now. Does the fanbase really want to ride out 2014 with two great OTs and Josh Freeman, Mark Sanchez, McCown, or Sam Bradford at QB?
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Old 12-18-2013   #54
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by Marshall View Post
This is where trade scenarios come in. A QB centric team who has zeroed in on TB (say Cleveland) who fears that the the top 3 QBs will be off the board by it's 5th pick might be willing to pay dearly to move up to 1 or 2. They have 5,24,37,69,76,101,120,133,165 and 197. While there might be some risk moving back to 5, there would be an outstanding player there and more picks, particularly high ones, increase our chances of filling more gaps with quality prospects.

I'm of the opinion that TB may be the best of this years deep crop of good QBs, but I don't think any have GREAT or ELITE expectations. We have good QBs who can't overcome poor line play and better players on IR. Between IR players returning and four top draft choices, I think we can return to the exciting team we were expecting.

Think about it. Would you rather have TB or Matthews AND Bortles AND a top CB or DE in addition to our 33 pick (S?)?

ps the old trade value book says #1-1=3000; #1-5=1700, #1-24=740, #2-5=530, #3-5=245, #3-12=210,#4-5=96... Two first and a fifth would balance plus a premium to jump QB hungry teams like Houston, Jacksonville, Oakland, or a possible trade with St. Louis by Minnesota or Tennessee.
yep see my mock with a trade to Cleveland. The value has even become greater since we now have #1 pick. Even if no trade we should get a very high quality starter.
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Old 12-18-2013   #55
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Your first sentence is the issue Badboy as you think using a sports website big board in December is a legitimate Guide to making a viable decision on draft strategy. That is something I would expect from Texian.
You seriously do not think we can project a QB at #34 based on known info? If not, why are you even in this forum? Of course players move up and down but that is the beauty of this thing.

Also you stated no one would be there in second to protect so how did you arrive at that decision?
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Old 12-18-2013   #56
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by The1ApplePie View Post
MSR

Clowney, Barr, or Bridgewater are the only picks to make in that position. Even with the mythical trade down, taking a RT in the first simply makes no sense. Pass rusher and QB are the two most important positions on the team, the Texans have one pass rusher and no QB. Take a RT at the top of the 3rd, problem solved.The Texans need a starting QB, not a 3rd round project or "Less Talented Mark Sanchez" AJ McCarrin
Based on your hours of watching college tackles and research please identify the right tackle you would so easily find available at top of third that starts.
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Old 12-18-2013   #57
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by beerlover View Post
This is such a great post, it hits the nail on the head.

BPA for Texans has to be a QB they can insert into starting role & become face of the franchise. I get the whole maximize your pick leverage argument but if TB or Bortles is your guy, sign him & let's move this franchise forward.

First thing is finding a new coach then both underclassman have to declare bypassing Senior season for NFL.
Then that is not a true BPA selection but based upon need.
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Old 12-18-2013   #58
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
I don't care what the scheme is, you don't take a RT at 1-1..
Can you guarantee Teddy & Clowney won't be busts? At this early point, I'd gauge that both have a significant bust potential compared to Matthews. I'd rather have the guy who's filling his spot nicely in 3 years versus a guy like Sam Bradford who I was "supposed" to draft in that slot but has you thinking about replacing him 3/4 years later.

If you don't think RT was important to Kubiak's offense this year you weren't watching Derek Newton*. Maybe RT will be less important in the new OC's offense, but I doubt it...

Examining Pressure: Are Left Tackles Overvalued?
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...
Final Word

There’s a lot to digest here, but it can be summed up rather quickly. The right tackle should no longer be viewed as the athletic inferior to the left tackle and teams should change their team-building strategy to make this happen. Today’s passing NFL makes it a necessity to have two competent pass protectors on the edge and when scouting players, if a tackle is deemed to not be good enough to play left tackle, well you’re better off just putting him at guard rather than exploiting him at right tackle. There’s no hiding — defensive coordinators will find him.
* Derek Newton is rated 71st/78 OTs overall and 74th/78 in pass protection. (>25% snaps) by PFF.

I get the whole draft value argument, but I'd rather avoid Amobi Okoye over slot value. And I personally think RTs are pretty important pieces. At this point, though, it's all guesses on top of guesses imo.
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Old 12-18-2013   #59
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

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Originally Posted by The1ApplePie View Post
There isn't an NFL starting QB on the roster right now. Does the fanbase really want to ride out 2014 with two great OTs and Josh Freeman, Mark Sanchez, McCown, or Sam Bradford at QB?
No, but I'm perfectly happy riding out 2014 with 2 great OTs, and QBs they get in the 2nd round.

Does the fanbase really want to ride out 2014 with a QB reach with the 1st overall pick?

Not me.
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Old 12-18-2013   #60
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Default Re: Jake Matthews now #1

I really don't think the Browns are trading up for the #1 pick. From what I have read, Mike Lombardi really likes Derek Carr, and he could be their pick, which probably won't require them moving up at all.
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