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Old 11-22-2013   #1
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Default Explaining the Texans Breakdown

In the case of our current Texans, explanations that the coaching stinks as a reason for the Texans demise bother me for various reasons, foremost being that the causal connection between the Texans breakdown connected to coaching remains unestablished. Most complaints boil down to nothing more than question begging / circular arguments- (e.g. Why are the texans sucking? Because the coaching sucks. So why does the coaching suck? Because the Texans are sucking). And circular arguments only presume the truth of what they are trying to prove which means that they prove nothing whatsoever.

For me, the following is an insightful analysis of why the Texans are suffering a breakdown. To be sure, there may be other factors but starting with onfield reasons for the Texans' demise is always a good place to start.

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/11/...tt-gary-kubiak

Two observations I would make from the analysis:

(A) Many of the stats analyzed above relate back to the various things we've seen with our own eyes with the performance on the field so in that sense the observations aren't anything new. However what spoke more loudly to me regarding the analysis is how thoroughly across the board in position groups the Texans are struggling at the same time. In other words, the comprehensiveness of the performance decline is shocking.

(B) The broader conclusion I take from this analysis is that the major reason the Texans are crashing and burning is because on the whole we've made bad personnel decisions as a team on offense and defense despite some of the shining bright spots like Watt or Foster (and I have to say I'm questioning the wisdom of the investment we made in Foster).

What say you?
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Old 11-22-2013   #2
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Default Re: Explaining the Texans Breakdown

Good read.

Obviously there is a myriad of reasons why the Texans have only won 4 out of their last 16 games. A meltdown of this magnitude cannot be attributed to a single thing like coaching or QB. It is almost everything right now, with a handful of still great performances by individuals.

I always look at the line on both sides of the ball. Basic stuff like protecting the QB and opening holes for a run game, and getting pressure on the opposing QB and stopping the run on defense.

And both sides of the line have been way below average. Each side has an obvious superstar with Watt and Brown, but they cannot do it alone.

A lot of fans will point at Schaub as the biggest disappointment, but for me, the FO knew they had a very immobile QB. A line to consistently protect him should have been priority no. 1.

Newton has shown one of the worst performances as a lineman that I can remember. He's letting defenders get by and the results are obvious with both an immobile Schaub and a scrambling Keenum. And no matter who is under center, if the QB is going to get pressure up the middle, game over. They have got to beef up the offensive line to improve this team.

And on defense, it seems like Watt is the only one who really matters. Opponents double and triple team the guy, but hardly anyone else can beat their single blocker to take advantage of all the attention on one player. I like Wade in general, but I'm not a big fan of a 3-4 defense that does not have the big jumbo nose tackle. You need a dude that takes up space and consistently forces the run to the outside. And if you can get a tackle that demands a double team every once it awhile, it gives opportunity to a guy like Watt to break free.

I'm sure others will disagree or focus on skill positions, and that's fine. But for me, a team has to ensure that both sides of the trenches are well stocked to make anything else happen. It's old school football stuff, but it has proved itself to be true time and time again.
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Old 11-22-2013   #3
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Default Re: Explaining the Texans Breakdown

Wade Smith, Duane Newton, Schaub need to be replaced. Losing OD hurt more than I expected.

We need two new OLBs and one or two ILBs and one ot two CBs and one or two Ss and a NT.

And we need to invest the time & money to upgrade our STs from the top down.

So, just a few tweaks.
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Old 11-22-2013   #4
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Default Re: Explaining the Texans Breakdown

Good article to with stats to back up what we already knew, nothing really to see here..

- Matt Schaub doesn't push the ball down the field.
- our offensive line blows on the right side..
- our outside linebackers suck and don't ever pressure the QB.
- with no pressure our secondary has no chance, oh and Bryce McCain should never stop on the field again.
- our special teams suck..
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Old 11-22-2013   #5
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Default Re: Explaining the Texans Breakdown

The only problem I have is that coaching is supposed to at least marginalize a lot of these weaknesses.

Talent level certainly applies, but it's up to the coaching staff to make sure players are prepared and able to take advantage of the opposition.

You can spin it how you want, but game plans, in game and half time adjustments play a huge role in how games play out.

Coaches actually have even more affect on the outcome of games because they choose who plays and when.

Kubiak deserves to lose his job more than Derek Newton. He has more blame.
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Old 11-23-2013   #6
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Default Re: Explaining the Texans Breakdown

Shows _exactly_ what I've been seeing. The OL is a mess,
and I think that led to Schaub giving up on downfield routes.

Keenum buys more time with his legs, and that's why he
can pull a big play or two in each game.


4 out of 5 O linemen are average to below average. Why did
we let go of Winston and Brisel? Talk about pissing away a good
thing!

I think taking OL in round #1 is a MUST. QB can be round #2,
and a legit pass rushing LB has to be #3

Bottom line sums it up well:

"While Matt Schaub's disastrous penchant for throwing touchdowns to the other team has headlined the Texans' lost season, Schaub has been far from the Texans' only downfall. The good news in Houston is that Keenum is showing some promise (so stop yanking him after a tough half, OK?), strong performers like Watt and Kareem Jackson are in their prime and the return of players like Manning and Cushing will help to alleviate some trouble spots for 2014."

TJ
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Old 11-23-2013   #7
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Default Re: Explaining the Texans Breakdown

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tango View Post
(B) The broader conclusion I take from this analysis is that the major reason the Texans are crashing and burning is because on the whole we've made bad personnel decisions as a team on offense and defense despite some of the shining bright spots like Watt or Foster (and I have to say I'm questioning the wisdom of the investment we made in Foster).

What say you?
My opinion (I haven't read the article yet, but I'm going to) is that the Texans still do not believe they are as bad as they are. I believe they're going into every game thinking, "Surely we're not this bad." Then make excuses for what happened when the game is over. This was this, or that was that.... "We're not that bad."

& Gary's mantra is that if we worry about us, we'll win games.

However, San Diego & Tennessee approached our games as if we had targets on our backs. They came to those games thinking they had to play their best football to have a chance to win..... & they almost did.

Baltimore was going to pay us back for last season & it was just another game to us... & to Reed (who was probably still wearing purple at the time).

The Texans need to accept the fact that they aren't playing very good football right now. Even though it might look like one play here or there, it's the bunches of little plays that are killing this team. Jacksonville should look like the best team in the league to us & this should be our Super Bowl.

They need to approach this game & every game after as the most important game in Texans' history.
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Old 11-23-2013   #8
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Default Re: Explaining the Texans Breakdown

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Originally Posted by Double Barrel View Post
Newton has shown one of the worst performances as a lineman that I can remember. He's letting defenders get by and the results are obvious with both an immobile Schaub and a scrambling Keenum. And no matter who is under center, if the QB is going to get pressure up the middle, game over. They have got to beef up the offensive line to improve this team.
I honestly don't know if Newton is our biggest problem on the line. He's got tough competition from Wade Smith, Brandon Brooks took a big step backwards yesterday & Myers was shy of stellar.

I think as long as they "know" they've got a problem on the right side, we can make it work. But when it's the RT one play, The LG the next play, The Center the next, the RT.... then when you've got your third eye on all of them, the LT shts the bed.
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Old 11-23-2013   #9
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Default Re: Explaining the Texans Breakdown

This entire write up could be summed up to one problem which is leadership and coaching. Every single thing outlined in this thing all goes back to that.
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Old 11-23-2013   #10
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Default Re: Explaining the Texans Breakdown

My explanation .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CZIjY2irb8
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Old 11-23-2013   #11
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Default Re: Explaining the Texans Breakdown

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Originally Posted by Texecutioner View Post
This entire write up could be summed up to one problem which is leadership and coaching. Every single thing outlined in this thing all goes back to that.
As you know, I usually disagree with you about Kubiak... There is no denying, however, that the thing that has been exposed this season is the mindset and attitude of the team- which comes directly from Kubiak.

We have the 2nd ranked defense and 8th ranked offense, yet we are looking at a top five pick. Why? The coaches are too busy focused on simple execution and never engage in critically viewing one another and looking for ways to gain an edge. Kubiak knows how much easier for an offense to make a play in the passing game if he and his QB know they will face man coverage... Somehow, that info never makes it to wade. We will just keep banging our heads against the same wall...

On offense, the Tate run call last week at the goal line was a good example... We just do what we do, despite the fact that we were missing the personnel to do it.

So, for me, this season is the perfect storm- it is a picture of the downside risk with Kubiak in charge. Odds are good, that this wouldn't happen next year if he is around.... But, he will be gone. I will be hoping for a dynamic leader and not just something different.
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Old 11-23-2013   #12
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Default Re: Explaining the Texans Breakdown

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
As you know, I usually disagree with you about Kubiak... There is no denying, however, that the thing that has been exposed this season is the mindset and attitude of the team- which comes directly from Kubiak.

We have the 2nd ranked defense and 8th ranked offense, yet we are looking at a top five pick. Why? The coaches are too busy focused on simple execution and never engage in critically viewing one another and looking for ways to gain an edge. Kubiak knows how much easier for an offense to make a play in the passing game if he and his QB know they will face man coverage... Somehow, that info never makes it to wade. We will just keep banging our heads against the same wall...

On offense, the Tate run call last week at the goal line was a good example... We just do what we do, despite the fact that we were missing the personnel to do it.

So, for me, this season is the perfect storm- it is a picture of the downside risk with Kubiak in charge. Odds are good, that this wouldn't happen next year if he is around.... But, he will be gone. I will be hoping for a dynamic leader and not just something different.
I see it also as perfect storm with Schaub's mental snap from NE game, Kubiak's resisting change, injuries to key starters with no depth, forcing RT Newton to play hurt, having to settle for Ryan Harris as backup due to $, Ed Reed dud coupled with Manning's injury that did not allow Swearinger time to learn and forcing Keo to play more than spot play. Then we have Joseph's avg play (groin?), D. Brown's injuries and McCain's regression after a decent year earning the new deal.

I was hopeful that this next off season would allow Houston to start adding to depth and why I made the statement that I thought we were building a dynasty. I think Schaub is shell shocked and is gone. Kubiak is simply shocked and can only resort to what he thinks will work IF he had the personnel to do so. He is evidently not the coach to take average players and help them win ala Bum Phillips.

A good draft and a few other personnel decisions (decent nose tackle for one) and we could see this team rebuild in two years. I think fans will accept that. I doubt that we have management to do it.
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Old 11-23-2013   #13
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Default Re: Explaining the Texans Breakdown

we have very successful systems on offense and defense. we dont however have the personnel to run them. we can blame the players themselves, the front office for signing them (or more accurately paying other positions), or the coaches for all of the above as well as failing to adjust to what the options currently are. regardless of why, we need better talent at the positions that matter most.

on offense it's the line. we are a zone blocking, run first, play action offense. runningbacks are a dime a dozen. though it's nice to have a good one, we had ron dayne averaging more than 4ypc - our skill positions are a luxury. we can win 12 games with matt schaub, 1 wide receiver, and runningback by committee ... IF the line is working. when it's not it doesnt matter if we have all pros everywhere else, our system cannot work without great line play.

on defense it's linebackers. a good line is great, but a bunch of joes can work. a strong secondary is very important in today's game, but man corners is fine. all of it is dependent on the linebackers, they have to be your studs and we only have one (injured). mercilus has zero instincts, reed's just a guy, and our ILB's are horrid. we have spent some picks trying to address at least the OLB position, but we've missed badly and nothing's been done about the ILB's.

there's more that's gone into our epic collapse such as schaub going brad lidge after last year's pats game, foster being a flake, ed reed poisoning the lockerroom, special ed teams, kubiak and wade's calls, and more. all of it is survivable if we had those two areas working as they should however.
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Old 11-23-2013   #14
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Default Re: Explaining the Texans Breakdown

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Originally Posted by Scooter View Post
we have very successful systems on offense and defense. we dont however have the personnel to run them. we can blame the players themselves, the front office for signing them (or more accurately paying other positions), or the coaches for all of the above as well as failing to adjust to what the options currently are. regardless of why, we need better talent at the positions that matter most.

on offense it's the line. we are a zone blocking, run first, play action offense. runningbacks are a dime a dozen. though it's nice to have a good one, we had ron dayne averaging more than 4ypc - our skill positions are a luxury. we can win 12 games with matt schaub, 1 wide receiver, and runningback by committee ... IF the line is working. when it's not it doesnt matter if we have all pros everywhere else, our system cannot work without great line play.

on defense it's linebackers. a good line is great, but a bunch of joes can work. a strong secondary is very important in today's game, but man corners is fine. all of it is dependent on the linebackers, they have to be your studs and we only have one (injured). mercilus has zero instincts, reed's just a guy, and our ILB's are horrid. we have spent some picks trying to address at least the OLB position, but we've missed badly and nothing's been done about the ILB's.

there's more that's gone into our epic collapse such as schaub going brad lidge after last year's pats game, foster being a flake, ed reed poisoning the lockerroom, special ed teams, kubiak and wade's calls, and more. all of it is survivable if we had those two areas working as they should however.
First comparing MS to Brad Lidge is perfect! I agree with your points but if we had allowed Foster to go especially if we low balled him, fan base would have gone nuts. I admit I was glad we brought him back. We did put money into Cushing and then he goes out for year; cannot blame that on coaching or Ric Smth. Yeah some say we should have waited to sign him but that is a silly assumption that he would then sign without testing market. If we did that and Cushing did leave McNair would have gone nuts. RBs may be a dime a dozen but the ones we buy are pathetic.

Selecting player has got to be done better.
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Old 11-23-2013   #15
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Default Re: Explaining the Texans Breakdown

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... I doubt that we have management to do it.
YET. I think that's the operable word here Steve. I don't think Big Mac is still in the "We're on the right track" mode. I think/really hope he's reading the pulse of the failed organization that's in place now. I'll be pissturbed beyond belief if this coaching staff is retained post season. I will get flack here but I'm not so sure that Rick Smith is incapable of doing a better job if he's not curtailed in his personnel calls by the coaching staff. Some have leveled complaints about the scouting staff as well and my feelings are the same there as well. Just tell 'em what you're looking for and they'll show up with it. Just get them an accurate "grocery list".
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Old 11-23-2013   #16
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Default Re: Explaining the Texans Breakdown

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YET. I think that's the operable word here Steve. I don't think Big Mac is still in the "We're on the right track" mode. I think/really hope he's reading the pulse of the failed organization that's in place now. I'll be pissturbed beyond belief if this coaching staff is retained post season. I will get flack here but I'm not so sure that Rick Smith is incapable of doing a better job if he's not curtailed in his personnel calls by the coaching staff. Some have leveled complaints about the scouting staff as well and my feelings are the same there as well. Just tell 'em what you're looking for and they'll show up with it. Just get them an accurate "grocery list".
Why would you think that Smith could do a better job?
What has he done on his own personnel wise? Has he had any input other than DB's maybe? Our scouting dept has for the most part been a failure
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Old 11-23-2013   #17
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Default Re: Explaining the Texans Breakdown

I think that when the fans can see a problem the coaching staff should have seen it long before,we as average and sometimes idiot fans can see it> for instance.. Last year,we saw a potential problem with Schaub,granted,texans did draft Case,but after the first two pick six's,I was thinking that they would redo the offense,it was obvious that the defenses had caught onto the wide throw to OD,but it still went on and on..game after game.no changes.
Kubriak IS responsible for part of the problem just for that alone.Not taking any action in fixing the main problem at the time,cost them several more close games.He stood pat..saying he would help out Matt more..blah blah blah..whatever that meant.. nothing changed.maybe they can lure Gruden out of retirement?
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Old 11-23-2013   #18
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Default Re: Explaining the Texans Breakdown

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Originally Posted by silvrhand View Post
Good article to with stats to back up what we already knew, nothing really to see here..

- Matt Schaub doesn't push the ball down the field.
- our offensive line blows on the right side..
- our outside linebackers suck and don't ever pressure the QB.
- with no pressure our secondary has no chance, oh and Bryce McCain should never stop on the field again.
- our special teams suck..
actually i don't agree with the bolded.
We don't get the high stats for sacks but we are 3rd in the league in QB hits and 11th in sack percentage (amounts of sacks against opponent passing attempts).
Its not elite i agree but not has bad as some suggest. there are more glaring issues on defence

What is really a mind blowing stat is we are ranked 31st in tackles!
Our OLB are not playing at elite level but its not our problem on defence.
Our problem is not stopping in the run (1st in total defence, 20th in rushing yards allowed).

We need to get better at ILB and NT. Its pretty simple when i say the names of tarpinian, sharpton and mitchell are our current starters at those positions. Get better there and the defence will be much improved
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Old 11-23-2013   #19
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Default Re: Explaining the Texans Breakdown

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Originally Posted by Double Barrel View Post
Good read.

Obviously there is a myriad of reasons why the Texans have only won 4 out of their last 16 games. A meltdown of this magnitude cannot be attributed to a single thing like coaching or QB. It is almost everything right now, with a handful of still great performances by individuals.

I always look at the line on both sides of the ball. Basic stuff like protecting the QB and opening holes for a run game, and getting pressure on the opposing QB and stopping the run on defense.

And both sides of the line have been way below average. Each side has an obvious superstar with Watt and Brown, but they cannot do it alone.

A lot of fans will point at Schaub as the biggest disappointment, but for me, the FO knew they had a very immobile QB. A line to consistently protect him should have been priority no. 1.

Newton has shown one of the worst performances as a lineman that I can remember. He's letting defenders get by and the results are obvious with both an immobile Schaub and a scrambling Keenum. And no matter who is under center, if the QB is going to get pressure up the middle, game over. They have got to beef up the offensive line to improve this team.

And on defense, it seems like Watt is the only one who really matters. Opponents double and triple team the guy, but hardly anyone else can beat their single blocker to take advantage of all the attention on one player. I like Wade in general, but I'm not a big fan of a 3-4 defense that does not have the big jumbo nose tackle. You need a dude that takes up space and consistently forces the run to the outside. And if you can get a tackle that demands a double team every once it awhile, it gives opportunity to a guy like Watt to break free.

I'm sure others will disagree or focus on skill positions, and that's fine. But for me, a team has to ensure that both sides of the trenches are well stocked to make anything else happen. It's old school football stuff, but it has proved itself to be true time and time again.
The Texans have never taken care of the trenches 1st since their inception. They will continue to be medicore at best until they do. This is why I want either Matthews/Clowney in RD.1.

BoB/Rick/Gary/Wade are to blame for the state of the franchise these are BoB's handpicked GM/HC/DC's and their handpicked players.
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Old 11-23-2013   #20
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Default Re: Explaining the Texans Breakdown

overall good article. obviously pinpoints our KEY problems of CB, RT, ILB, LG
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