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Old 11-13-2013   #321
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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Originally Posted by aussie_texan View Post
yeah i like that idea. Mosley is just to much of a playmaker for me to pass on. in terms of defence its him barr and clowney has your elite talents in the draft imo. Also if you could keep that 2nd round pick. taking ebron would be icing on the cake…but i think I'm asking for a bit to much

you really think thats all we would get for foster?
I agree that his health is a concern but his contract is favourable considering when healthy is an elite RB in the league. when i see richardson going for a 1st surely foster is worth at minimum the same amount
The reason Richardson is worth more than Foster is that he's younger, healthier, and alot less mileage. Plus the Colts over paid. I think the best you'd get for Foster would be a 4th and that's not even likely. Foster is having spinal surgery, has lots of mileage with diminishing returns, and is already old for a RB.
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Old 11-13-2013   #322
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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The reason Richardson is worth more than Foster is that he's younger, healthier, and alot less mileage. Plus the Colts over paid. I think the best you'd get for Foster would be a 4th and that's not even likely. Foster is having spinal surgery, has lots of mileage with diminishing returns, and is already old for a RB.
but his terrible!!!!!!

can't believe i used to think he was good
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Old 11-13-2013   #323
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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The reason Richardson is worth more than Foster is that he's younger, healthier, and alot less mileage. Plus the Colts over paid. I think the best you'd get for Foster would be a 4th and that's not even likely. Foster is having spinal surgery, has lots of mileage with diminishing returns, and is already old for a RB.
Isn't Richardson still on a rookie scale contract ?! Contracts have a huge impact on player trade value , especially bonus money that is accelerated.

Foster's deal 5 years 43.5m total , 12.5 signing bonus 20.75 guaranteed.

Richardson 4 years 20.489m total 13.341m signing bonus 20.489m guaranteed.


The difference here is that the Browns ate any funds from that 13.341m signing bonus that hadn't been paid and the Dolts get him for 1.32m this season , 2.52m in 2014 and 3.18m in 2015.

Foster's cap hit is between 8.25m and 9.5m for this season and three more after it.


Richardson's value is inflated by the fact that Cleveland was able to eat the cap hit passing that value on to Indy and being compensated a #1 pick for it.

If the Texans were to eat Foster's bonus money the team he goes to is still on the hook for ~6.25m - 7m per year.

Compare that to what Indy is paying Richardson now .... roughly 25-45% over the life of the deal.
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Old 11-13-2013   #324
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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Originally Posted by Corrosion View Post
Isn't Richardson still on a rookie scale contract ?! Contracts have a huge impact on player trade value , especially bonus money that is accelerated.

Foster's deal 5 years 43.5m total , 12.5 signing bonus 20.75 guaranteed.

Richardson 4 years 20.489m total 13.341m signing bonus 20.489m guaranteed.


The difference here is that the Browns ate any funds from that 13.341m signing bonus that hadn't been paid and the Dolts get him for 1.32m this season , 2.52m in 2014 and 3.18m in 2015.

Foster's cap hit is between 8.25m and 9.5m for this season and three more after it.


Richardson's value is inflated by the fact that Cleveland was able to eat the cap hit passing that value on to Indy and being compensated a #1 pick for it.
^^^^^ Refreshing to see that someone truly understands the working of the salary cap.
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Old 11-13-2013   #325
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

The Colts thought they were getting good value with Richardson's "affordable" remaining portion on his rookie contract, but it looks like now that they are just wasting their first round pick in 2014.

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/stor...imensional-afc

Also, I don't think you can compare a guy on his rookie contract, who has yet to prove anything in the NFL with Foster.

$2M might be less than $6M, but if you don't get the return of that spending, the $2M is just money down the drain.
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Old 11-13-2013   #326
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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Originally Posted by Corrosion View Post
If the Texans were to eat Foster's bonus money the team he goes to is still on the hook for ~6.25m - 7m per year.

Compare that to what Indy is paying Richardson now .... roughly 25-45% over the life of the deal.
All true. But, the trade value is not affected by the ability of the trading team to absorb the cap hit. That just makes the trade possible.

The below is also true.

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
$2M might be less than $6M, but if you don't get the return of that spending, the $2M is just money down the drain.
2.8 ypc for a starting RB is a player you are thinking to replace regardless of his salary.
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Old 11-13-2013   #327
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

top 5 pick....get your qb

top 10 pick...get jake matthews
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Old 11-13-2013   #328
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
All true. But, the trade value is not affected by the ability of the trading team to absorb the cap hit. That just makes the trade possible.

Ah but it is ... as the team getting said player is getting him at a discounted salary cap hit for the duration of the deal - Pending the player was worth the initial value.

Basically they are paying less for the same production. In this case , the Dolts are getting a ~4.6m player for 1.3m this season. They save 3.335m in both actual cash and cap space.

What's more valuable to you , Trent Richardson at 4.6m or Trent Richardson at 1.3m ?? This is comparing apples to apples .... for once.


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top 5 pick....get your qb

top 10 pick...get jake matthews
OT has become one of the premier positions in the game , I cant see Matthews being on the board beyond the 4th-5th picks.

Bridgewater , Clowney & Mariota .... who else do you see going in front of Matthews ?
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Old 11-13-2013   #329
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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Ah but it is ... as the team getting said player is getting him at a discounted salary cap hit for the duration of the deal - Pending the player was worth the initial value.

Basically they are paying less for the same production. In this case , the Dolts are getting a ~4.6m player for 1.3m this season. They save 3.335m in both actual cash and cap space.

What's more valuable to you , Trent Richardson at 4.6m or Trent Richardson at 1.3m ?? This is comparing apples to apples .... for once.
Actually no. The structure of the prior deal is irrelevant except for the portion the new team is taking on. The are getting Trent Richardson for $1.3 mil regardless of whether he had been paid a $3 mil signing bonus or a $30 mil signing bonus. Heck the Browns could have been in position to pay his signing bonus as a roster bonus last year and so he would have been $1.3 mil for either team this year. Makes no difference to the value Indy is getting - it is all $1.3 mil.

If you are buying a chicken you don't care whether the seller got it for free or paid $100k thinking it laid golden eggs. Richardson remains a $1.3 mil chicken.
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Old 11-13-2013   #330
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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Actually no. The structure of the prior deal is irrelevant except for the portion the new team is taking on. The are getting Trent Richardson for $1.3 mil regardless of whether he had been paid a $3 mil signing bonus or a $30 mil signing bonus. Heck the Browns could have been in position to pay his signing bonus as a roster bonus last year and so he would have been $1.3 mil for either team this year. Makes no difference to the value Indy is getting - it is all $1.3 mil.

If you are buying a chicken you don't care whether the seller got it for free or paid $100k thinking it laid golden eggs. Richardson remains a $1.3 mil chicken.
I have watched you often go to left field in a desperate ploy and effort to find something that will make sense to your point of view. A $1.3 mil chicken may be your best or worst depending on how you look at it.
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Old 11-13-2013   #331
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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Originally Posted by Corrosion View Post
Ah but it is ... as the team getting said player is getting him at a discounted salary cap hit for the duration of the deal - Pending the player was worth the initial value.

Basically they are paying less for the same production. In this case , the Dolts are getting a ~4.6m player for 1.3m this season. They save 3.335m in both actual cash and cap space.

What's more valuable to you , Trent Richardson at 4.6m or Trent Richardson at 1.3m ?? This is comparing apples to apples .... for once.




OT has become one of the premier positions in the game , I cant see Matthews being on the board beyond the 4th-5th picks.

Bridgewater , Clowney & Mariota .... who else do you see going in front of Matthews ?
Been watching Matthews. I'm starting to think he might be the safest pick in the draft. It might be a premium pick at RT at no. 5 through 10, but like you said, I don't see too many guys ahead of him as BPA.

Is Evans of more value than Matthews? Possibly.
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Old 11-14-2013   #332
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No, Mariota. And you are headed in the right direction, but the coach you should be thinking about coaches in Waco Texas.
Well hell. Briles signs 10 year deal to stay with Baylor. Smart move by Baylor.
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Old 11-14-2013   #333
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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Well hell. Briles signs 10 year deal to stay with Baylor. Smart move by Baylor.
I seen that. It sucks, I really was hoping at the very least we could get him as OC.
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Old 11-14-2013   #334
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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I seen that. It sucks, I really was hoping at the very least we could get him as OC.
The only head coaches that I know of that would leave a head coaching position to become an OC is a high school head coach leaving high school to become a college OC.
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Old 11-14-2013   #335
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

More and more convinced we need to spend the first round pick on one of the lines.

I believe we have weapons to win on offense if we get the blocking required.

I think that we need someone to take advantage of the attention Watt gets to transform the defense.
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Old 11-14-2013   #336
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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The only head coaches that I know of that would leave a head coaching position to become an OC is a high school head coach leaving high school to become a college OC.
Correct.

Current OCs who came from college HC:

Mike Sherman - fired
Jim Caldwell - fired
Bill Callahan - fired
Dirk Koelter - fired
Mike Shua - fired
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Old 11-14-2013   #337
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

[quote=

OT has become one of the premier positions in the game , I cant see Matthews being on the board beyond the 4th-5th picks.

Bridgewater , Clowney & Mariota .... who else do you see going in front of Matthews ?[/QUOTE]


if i had to guess a few names i'd say:

Hundley- if he comes out and has a good workout, some team will fall in love with his size & potential & jump up & take him way before he's supposed to go..

Don't know too much about Barr, but lots of mocks project him going in the top 5...a great workout could force a team like ATL who's so thirsty for a pass rusher that they signed an over the hill Umenyiora this past year.. to take him if they wind up inside the top 5.

Can't rule out Sammy Watkins who's just outside the top 5..he's sure to blow teams away with his athleticism at his pro day....& Pittsburgh needs someone opposite brown b/c sanders isn't getting it done.

& that other OT Lewan could be in the mix to go before him if he blows away scouts or performs better or as good at the combine / pro day than matthews.

The x-factor is Manziel imo...considering the teams who project to be at the top of the draft board....Minny, TB, Jax, us....someone's gonna reach for him. Us and Minny are prime candidates b/c it is thought we already have enough weapons to surround him with...

Apart from that you know how the draft goes man..there's always someone who's not on the radar that has a beast workout at the combine & that shoots them up draft boards.
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Old 11-17-2013   #338
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

today reaffirmed my position on drafting a TE early. not with a top 5 pick but possibly in the 2nd and no later then the 3rd.
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Old 11-17-2013   #339
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

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today reaffirmed my position on drafting a TE early. not with a top 5 pick but possibly in the 2nd and no later then the 3rd.
A 7 rec. 136 yd 1 TD (which almost had another 40 yd comp.) day reaffirmed to you that TE should take precedence over RT, ILB, OG, S, CB and QB? Not getting that.
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Old 11-17-2013   #340
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Default Re: Where to spend the 2014 1st round pick?

I'm still leaning towards clowney if we stay 34.

I think this defense is missing an edge presence like nobody's business.

Maybe when I get around to looking at other players I'll like another edge player more, but for now I still like clowney.
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