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Old 11-13-2013   #821
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Default Re: Manziel

Heaping success on a pedestrian quarterback when he has Alabama's offensive line, running backs, and defense. If not for playing with Alabama those stats wouldn't sniff Heisman.

EDIT: For the record, McCarron has played very well and his play has improved significantly from 2011, but any Heisman talk for him a bit much.
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Old 11-13-2013   #822
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by Stemp View Post
Well, here are the relevant cliff notes


Really hard to argue with the numbers.


He's been better this year than he was last year when he won the damn thing.


(I'm no Manziel homer either , I think he's a boom or bust prospect in the NFL and cant make up my mind which is more likely)
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Old 11-13-2013   #823
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by bhsman View Post
Heaping success on a pedestrian quarterback when he has Alabama's offensive line, running backs, and defense. If not for playing with Alabama those stats wouldn't sniff Heisman.

EDIT: For the record, McCarron has played very well and his play has improved significantly from 2011, but any Heisman talk for him a bit much.
I don't understand.

I said McCarron was running 5th in my mind, behind the 4 players I had previously mentioned (Winston, Manziel, Perry, Mariota).

I think you may have misunderstood.
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Old 11-13-2013   #824
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by TexansSeminole View Post
I don't understand.

I said McCarron was running 5th in my mind, behind the 4 players I had previously mentioned (Winston, Manziel, Perry, Mariota).

I think you may have misunderstood.
My bad; the comments weren't directed at you specifically, just the general consensus that McCarron is even in the discussion when the success of his team is why we're even talking about him.
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Old 11-13-2013   #825
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by Stemp View Post
Well, here are the relevant cliff notes

It would also make more sense to have the statistic be "Total TD/Total Turnovers," rather than "Total TD/Total Interceptions." Interesting to include rushing yards and rushing TDs vs two QBs that don't run the ball almost ever, especially on designed runs, yet not include the corresponding turnover statistic. Awfully convenient.
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Old 11-13-2013   #826
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by TexansSeminole View Post
It would also make more sense to have the statistic be "Total TD/Total Turnovers," rather than "Total TD/Total Interceptions." Interesting to include rushing yards and rushing TDs vs two QBs that don't run the ball almost ever, especially on designed runs, yet not include the corresponding turnover statistic. Awfully convenient.
It's probably unfair to McCarron whose rushing stats would take a hit from being sacked, but Manziel's rushes are a huge part of why he's successful and why the team is successful. I don't have a problem including it.
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Old 11-14-2013   #827
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Default Re: Manziel

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It's probably unfair to McCarron whose rushing stats would take a hit from being sacked, but Manziel's rushes are a huge part of why he's successful and why the team is successful. I don't have a problem including it.
You're missing my point. Rushing stats are part of football and should be included. However, you should include fumbles as well when you are talking about a guy that runs 11 times per game.

Mariota's total TD/interception ratio is 31/0 and that is through 9 games versus Manziel's 10 games (39/11). Mariota is also sporting 8 YPC versus Manziel's 5.6 YPC, with 281.2 passing yards per game and 55 rushing yards per game on less passing attempts and less rushing attempts than Manziel. That would have been a more apt comparison. Even still, it doesn't tell the whole story because Mariota runs the ball 7 times per game and fumbles aren't included.

Including Bryce Petty would also make sense. Through 8 games, 2 less than Manziel, he's got a total TD/interception ratio of 29/1. His passing yards per game of 332.1 is the best in the country and that comes on 81% of the passing attempts per game versus Manziel. He's run at 2.7 YPC for 15 yards per game.

Both those guys are on teams that destroy people early, outside of Oregon in the Stanford game, so they are operating with that statistical crutch, just like McCarron and Winston are.

Anyway, the point was that the picture chooses which athletes and which stats it is using against them. The truth is that the Heisman race is a close one between a number of guys.
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Old 11-14-2013   #828
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Default Re: Manziel

I was referring only to those mentioned in the graph because it was posted. :p
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Old 11-14-2013   #829
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Default Re: Manziel

of course the graphic from a texas a&m based site will support johnny and show stats that favor him, i'm sure the other schools will do the same eventually for their player.

as far as who should win, I think the best question is which player is the most integral to a team's success?

- without winston, florida state possibly has one loss to clemson. maybe. their defense is good enough to overcome and allows winston/any qb to play safely.

- without petty, baylor maybe loses to ksu (somehow) but as we've seen with briles (keenum, robert griffin, petty) his system is plug n' play. they are about to enter the tough stretch of their weak schedule however, but only osu or texas should provide tests.

- oregon without mariota probably has the second most dramatic fall off and even then their running game is strong enough and passing game safe enough (screens/short passes) to get the backup through the games. losses to stanford and toss ups with ucla/u dub.

- without jff, a&m sadly has four losses or more (bama/auburn much worse, ole miss/msu/arkansas go either way). the running game would be a crutch for the backups (joeckel doesn't have the "it" factor and hill is a true freshman who will be good, but just isn't ready) but injuries on the OL have had them underperforming lately. and then there is the defense which is just flat horrible. without johnny against lsu/mizzou, we stand zero chance. i'm not that confident we win even with him because of the defense. johnny knows this and plays that way; going for the big plays because he doesn't trust the defense to make stops like they could last year.


now there is also this rape case going on. nothing like a good media crucifixion to taint what otherwise would be a stellar football season for winston. we'll see if that has any effect on voters, as some have stated they will not vote for manziel due to his off-season notoriety.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TexansSeminole View Post
You're missing my point. Rushing stats are part of football and should be included. However, you should include fumbles as well when you are talking about a guy that runs 11 times per game.
the only fumble I can remember johnny having this year was against ole miss. I don't think the ncaa records lost fumbles individually so I couldn't fact check.
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Old 11-14-2013   #830
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Default Re: Manziel

Johnny's only fumbled once this year, vs. Ole Miss.
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Old 11-14-2013   #831
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Default Re: Manziel

That's a lot of "what ifs." I don't think you give an award out based on impossible to predict "what if" scenarios. That's much easier to do in the NFL, where people have much more similar schedules.

Regardless, it's not a consistent estimation.

You describe Petty as a system guy, "plug n' play" as you put it. You are aware that the system is extremely similar to what A&M is running. Briles at UH, Sumlin at UH. This exact same argument can be used against you. Strange that you'd bring that up.

Florida State had arguably a better team last year. The same guys were on the team, except they had multiple first rounders, and the most draft picks by a school on that team also. FSU found a way to lose multiple games, much of it due to EJ's safe style of quarterbacking and indecisiveness. It was part of my knock on him going into the NFL draft. From a performance standpoint, Winston has elevated the team to national title relevance. From a leadership standpoint, he has shown to be much more effective than EJ. The team plays with the type of perseverance that the previous 3 or 4 teams lacked, even though they were supremely talented. Again, a bad comparison considering last year's team is arguably more talented than this year's team. If you've watched Winston, you know that he does not play safely. You could argue that it is his biggest flaw. He consistently throws downfield and sometimes gets caught being greedy. His YPA is very high, higher than Manziel.

Hard to play the what if game with Oregon as they've had Mariota for some time now.

For the record, I don't think Winston will win the Heisman. It actually wouldn't surprise me to see him at 3rd, even 4th by end of year. Voters tend to favor raw stats (total TD, total yards) more than anything, and he just won't be able to compete.

I don't understand why people are acting like Mariota is out of it. I just posted his statistics. They are fantastic. He hasn't even thrown an interception all year. His team has one less loss than A&M and is honestly more relevant. They've also played an arguably tougher schedule to this point. I really don't understand why people would so quickly dismiss him, but prop up Manziel. It's not consistent.

Petty is going to surprise some people and may actually take the lead if Baylor dominates this gauntlet they are about to face at the end of the season.
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Old 11-15-2013   #832
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by TexansSeminole View Post
I don't understand why people are acting like Mariota is out of it. I just posted his statistics. They are fantastic. He hasn't even thrown an interception all year. His team has one less loss than A&M and is honestly more relevant. They've also played an arguably tougher schedule to this point. I really don't understand why people would so quickly dismiss him, but prop up Manziel. It's not consistent.
I don't think Mariota is out of it, but I do think it will probably take a slip by someone "above" him to pull him back in as a main contender. While he has plenty of impressive stats (especially the 0 interceptions), I think a lot of it comes down to performance in the big games. For Mariota, his performance in the Stanford game was not good - even if the stats don't look bad, when you saw his play, you didn't come out of there thinking he was doing a great job. Compare that to Manziel against Alabama, or compare that to Winston against Clemson. These are the games most of the fans (and Heisman voters) watch, and so peoples' opinions are going to be swayed by that as much as by any statistical compilation. There's also the "what have you done lately" effect. Mariota just recently had one of his worst games. If Manziel comes out flat in either of his last two games (both of which are "big" ones), you'll see him drop out of the discussion, also.

I don't expect Manziel to actually win the Heisman again in any case, since I expect a significant number of voters are convinced that Manziel was misbehaving in the offseason and won't vote for him, or at least will downgrade him for that. If this Winston story has legs, I think that will hurt his chances, also, deservedly or not. Up until that story, I thought Winston was the favorite. So, now you're starting to see people pull folks like Petty and McCarron(!!) into the discussion, and I expect to see Mariota get mentioned as the Stanford game recedes a bit. I don't think it's because they are as impressive as Winston/Manziel, but some people want an alternative to people they see as behavior problems.

As an A&M fan, I am very biased, but the fact that Manti Teo got as many votes as he did last year, when it seemed blatantly obvious that Manziel was the best player of the year, makes me think that voters often are wanting to weight a lot of other subjective factors beyond just football performance. In this regard, I think Manziel goes in with some strikes against him, and if the Winston story doesn't die a quick death, he will, also. Unlike last year, I think the race is a lot closer between the top contenders.
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Old 11-16-2013   #833
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Default Re: Manziel

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Originally Posted by keyser View Post
I don't think Mariota is out of it, but I do think it will probably take a slip by someone "above" him to pull him back in as a main contender. While he has plenty of impressive stats (especially the 0 interceptions), I think a lot of it comes down to performance in the big games. For Mariota, his performance in the Stanford game was not good - even if the stats don't look bad, when you saw his play, you didn't come out of there thinking he was doing a great job. Compare that to Manziel against Alabama, or compare that to Winston against Clemson. These are the games most of the fans (and Heisman voters) watch, and so peoples' opinions are going to be swayed by that as much as by any statistical compilation. There's also the "what have you done lately" effect. Mariota just recently had one of his worst games. If Manziel comes out flat in either of his last two games (both of which are "big" ones), you'll see him drop out of the discussion, also.

I don't expect Manziel to actually win the Heisman again in any case, since I expect a significant number of voters are convinced that Manziel was misbehaving in the offseason and won't vote for him, or at least will downgrade him for that. If this Winston story has legs, I think that will hurt his chances, also, deservedly or not. Up until that story, I thought Winston was the favorite. So, now you're starting to see people pull folks like Petty and McCarron(!!) into the discussion, and I expect to see Mariota get mentioned as the Stanford game recedes a bit. I don't think it's because they are as impressive as Winston/Manziel, but some people want an alternative to people they see as behavior problems.

As an A&M fan, I am very biased, but the fact that Manti Teo got as many votes as he did last year, when it seemed blatantly obvious that Manziel was the best player of the year, makes me think that voters often are wanting to weight a lot of other subjective factors beyond just football performance. In this regard, I think Manziel goes in with some strikes against him, and if the Winston story doesn't die a quick death, he will, also. Unlike last year, I think the race is a lot closer between the top contenders.
Great post.

I wouldn't be surprised or upset if any of the top 4 (not McCarron) guys win it, but then again I don't really care all that much who wins. It would be nice for FSU if Winston wins it, but it's not all that important to me.
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Old 11-23-2013   #834
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Default Re: Manziel

I just read that Manziel will decide in the NFL prior to the bowl game. Is there any doubt that he will be leaving A&M?
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Old 11-23-2013   #835
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Default Re: Manziel

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I just read that Manziel will decide in the NFL prior to the bowl game. Is there any doubt that he will be leaving A&M?
Not much. I know someone who is roommates with him, and he says he's decided and is gone. Plans to travel to Cali to train for the draft. Mike Evans is gone as well.

His family wants him to take his time and think about his decision, but it would be a miracle if he stayed IMO.
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Old 11-23-2013   #836
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Default Re: Manziel

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Not much. I know someone who is roommates with him, and he says he's decided and is gone. Plans to travel to Cali to train for the draft. Mike Evans is gone as well.

His family wants him to take his time and think about his decision, but it would be a miracle if he stayed IMO.
I figured Evans would be gone too. He looks like a top 10 player at receiver, so I would be shocked if he stayed. Evans has NFL stud written all over him.
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Old 11-23-2013   #837
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Default Re: Manziel

About to head to A&M vs. LSU, y'all. Win or lose, we'll get to see how Manziel handles the toughest environment in college football.
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Old 11-23-2013   #838
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Default Re: Manziel

Watch party time. All the draftniks here are going to be watching Manziel like hawks today, but I think I'm gonna slow down and enjoy the last 3 games of Johnny Football's college career.
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Old 11-23-2013   #839
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Default Re: Manziel

Yeah...I just watched some manziel stuff and I'll pass. I'd rather have keenum. Need to watch these other qb's but right now bridgewater IMO, is clearly a better player than manziel.

There are a few things that I don't like about his game. He's going to make plays for sure. But I think he needs some major work to be a consistently good qb in the nfl.
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Old 11-23-2013   #840
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Default Re: Manziel

Manziel scampers and when sliding takes out one of his own WR Malcom Kennedy. 14-0 LSU
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