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Old 10-26-2013   #241
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Default Re: Rick Smith's poor job of managing the cap has closed our window for the time bein

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
You are right about what McNair said in 2006. You are also right in this statement: "Kubiak is not Belicheck, Smith is not Pioli, and Houston is not New England."

All of that became clear to McNair by 2010... McNair believes in Kubiak's philosophy and his system but figured out that Kubiak does not have the cold discernment and special decision-making skills that are unique to some of the great NFL coaches: like Belicheck. That is why he arrested some of the control of the team from Kubiak and gave it to Rick Smith... It was Smith who wanted to go another direction at defensive coordinator after 2008, but Kubiak overruled him and promoted Frank Bush. After the 2010 nightmare, Kubiak was retained as head coach but lost a lot of that GM power... Rick Smith was given it and was the one that wanted Wade Phillips.

I can not prove all of it, but it is clearly that the organization has been running much differently since the 2010 season. There was a "C" change, so to speak. Many of the big decisions regarding core players were made with much more calculation and less "loyalty" than was previously the case. Examples I would cite would be the Demeco Ryans trade, the clear decision to let Mario walk without giving him a real offer, the Winston cut, the Alex Gibb exit, Kevin Walter release, not re-signing Dreessen, etc... Those are things that don't happen, I don't think, if Kubiak is running the show.

To the second part of your statement, "Rick Smith is not Pioli"... that is very true. Pioli was a bit of a disaster once Belicheck wasn't pulling the strings anymore... Rick Smith is a vastly better GM. Pioli was part of a perfect storm- a group of football men that came together at the right moment, in the right situation, and did one heck of a job! And, don't get me wrong, Pioli did a great job! My point is that his ability to succeed at that job is limited to the unique situation he was in. I'm confident you will never see him take over an organization and build it into a success... You saw what happened in KC. He kept trying to patchwork that organization with whatever guys he could get from his time in N.E.- and he had no answers... Anyone that hires Romeo Crennel to be the head coach is clearly at a loss.
No offense DM but this statement is mostly you guessing and everything you are wishing, wanting, dreaming and hoping for along with a good dose of supposition. The reason it all falls it on it's face is Gary Kubiak never gave up full and final control of the 53 man roster. It's part of his contract today just as it was the day it was written. Kubiak's contract has not changed or been redone it still expires in 2014.

Pioli was a very good right hand man for Belichick, Bill could trust Scott to do what Belichick wanted done, in much the same way Kubiak trust Smith to to what Gary wants and needs Rick to do. At KC Pioli did a very good job in player personnel acquisitions and transactions as the 2013 7-0 Chiefs start will attest. Pioli failed miserably in his Head Coach selection.

Little secret here, it was Bob McNair that hired Wade Phillips. That was a done deal in the later part of December when Bob invited Bum to a Texans practice.
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Old 10-26-2013   #242
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Default Re: Rick Smith's poor job of managing the cap has closed our window for the time bein

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According to Bob Kraft, Bill Belichick does manage the salary cap and I believe it so because Bob Kraft has said it's so;

"I think he'll go down as the greatest coach in the history of the NFL, because he's really competing in the era of the salary cap. I think a lot of great coaches had difficulty understanding how to balance the economics of the game and the budget. His product knowledge is so great," said Kraft, who first came to appreciate Belichick's ability to mix football X's and O's and economics in 1996, when Belichick was an assistant on Bill Parcells' New England staff."

http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/...mpionship-game

It wasn’t one thing; it was everything. The NFL world was changing, and new skills were needed for a coach to succeed.

“Bill Parcells was not transitioning well into the salary-cap era,’’ Kraft maintains.

He felt that Wesleyan economics major Belichick would not have that problem.

Previously, I think I maybe tried to do too many little things,’’ Belichick said, “too many things that maybe took away from bigger picture things I should have been doing.’’

He also said, “There are a lot of things on the periphery and outside, off the field, that are also important toward winning, and I’ll put more time and effort into making sure those things are right for the organization than maybe I did previously.’’

“Bill’s a smart guy,’’ Kraft says. “He knows how to adapt and do what he has to do.’’


http://www.boston.com/sports/footbal...illing/?page=2

He lucked out with a hall of fame quarterback late in the draft. I am curious how he does when Brady retires
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Old 10-26-2013   #243
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Default Re: Rick Smith's poor job of managing the cap has closed our window for the time bein

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That doesn't really say that he's managing the cap (I don't know if he is or isn't, don't have an opinion either way)... it says that he understands how to coach in the salary cap era, which is a little different.
Now go back and read it again with 100% objectivity.
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Old 10-26-2013   #244
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Default Re: Rick Smith's poor job of managing the cap has closed our window for the time bein

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Now go back and read it again with 100% objectivity.
I've read it three times. I'm not the one lacking objectivity.

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Old 10-26-2013   #245
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Default Re: Rick Smith's poor job of managing the cap has closed our window for the time bein

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I've read it three times. I'm not the one lacking objectivity.

Mike
Then your lacking comprehension. You definitely fit into the category that most people only see and hear what they want to see and hear. And those who think they're never wrong.
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Old 10-26-2013   #246
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Default Re: Rick Smith's poor job of managing the cap has closed our window for the time bein

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“Bill Parcells was not transitioning well into the salary-cap era,’’ Kraft maintains.
With that statement, do you think Parcells was also managing the cap?

That whole statement by Kraft is just saying that Belichick understood a reality a lot of football people refused to accept for a long time.
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Old 10-26-2013   #247
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Default Re: Rick Smith's poor job of managing the cap has closed our window for the time bein

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So over the next 3 years the Ravens will pay Joe Flacco the same as the Texans will pay Matt Schaub. In 2015 the salary cap will be increased by $20-$30 million because of the new 17/18 game schedule. And in 2016 Joe Flacco's contract kicks in, a year after the the major cap increase. Sounds like another case study of good salary cap management by the Ravens vs bad salary cap management by the Texans.

First, aren't you the guy that argued that the Texans are foolish to expect the cap to grow significantly in a couple years?... then, you defend Flacco's contract by saying "the cap will increase by $20-$30 million in a couple years".... Well, for Baltimore's sake, it had better!

You are making these numbers up:

by "next three years", I guess you are including the current year?... Well, let's talk about Flacco's 4th year in the contract, when he is scheduled to count $29 million against the cap... Oh, and if they wanted to cut him before that season, they would deal with over $25 million in dead money... I'm not sure how that is anything like Schaub's deal.

You actually highlighted my point. The Texans have not backloaded contracts, which is why they are in very good cap health long term. Your point that Schaub's first three years in his deal (which is 1/2 of Flacco's in totality) cost the same amount as Flacco's against the cap the first couple seasons, illustrates why Baltimore is less healthy than Houston regarding the cap. The Texans don't have any of those monster numbers coming due. And, any of the players that have significant contracts- and may not be living up to them, can be cut from the team for a net cap savings (Joseph, ASmith, OD, Schaub, Manning, etc..)

Schaub, for instance, can be cut after this season, count $10 million against the cap and then the Texans would be clear of his contract. Flacco, if he is cut before year 5 of his 6 year deal, will cost the Ravens $30+ in dead money. And, even if they don't cut him, he will cost them $30 million in cap costs in years 4, 5, 6.
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Old 10-26-2013   #248
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Default Re: Rick Smith's poor job of managing the cap has closed our window for the time bein

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First, aren't you the guy that argued that the Texans are foolish to expect the cap to grow significantly in a couple years?... then, you defend Flacco's contract by saying "the cap will increase by $20-$30 million in a couple years".... Well, for Baltimore's sake, it had better!

You are making these numbers up:

by "next three years", I guess you are including the current year?... Well, let's talk about Flacco's 4th year in the contract, when he is scheduled to count $29 million against the cap... Oh, and if they wanted to cut him before that season, they would deal with over $25 million in dead money... I'm not sure how that is anything like Schaub's deal.

You actually highlighted my point. The Texans have not backloaded contracts, which is why they are in very good cap health long term. Your point that Schaub's first three years in his deal (which is 1/2 of Flacco's in totality) cost the same amount as Flacco's against the cap the first couple seasons, illustrates why Baltimore is less healthy than Houston regarding the cap. The Texans don't have any of those monster numbers coming due. And, any of the players that have significant contracts- and may not be living up to them, can be cut from the team for a net cap savings (Joseph, ASmith, OD, Schaub, Manning, etc..)

Schaub, for instance, can be cut after this season, count $10 million against the cap and then the Texans would be clear of his contract. Flacco, if he is cut before year 5 of his 6 year deal, will cost the Ravens $30+ in dead money. And, even if they don't cut him, he will cost them $30 million in cap costs in years 4, 5, 6.
Yes I am the guy. The general consenus is the Salary Cap next year will be very close to what is was this year. It would be foolhardy to plan differently.

Then why will the cap go up significantly in 2015? Conventional wisdom says the NFL will expand regular season games to 17 or 18 in 2015. In order to do this owners will need approval of the NFLPA. How do the owners get approval from the players? Significant increase in the salary cap, more money for everyone. In other words, money talks BS walks. Basic logic.

I haven't made up any numbers.

Regarding the long term health of the Texans salary cap you describe, that simply is not true. 2014 is as bad as 2013, Texans will have to replace 15 contracts w/ only $8 million available cap dollars. That averages to just over $500K per contract. That's not enough to meet the basic minimum obligations. 2015 is worse.

You keep talking about cutting Flacco and how much it would cost. Why would they want to cut Flacco? He's a Super Bowl winning QB. All he's done since joining the Ravens is go to the playoffs every year.

Here is something most fans don't realize, it's going to cost as much to sign JJ Watt as it cost to sign Joe Flacco and the Texans still don't have a QB.
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Old 10-26-2013   #249
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Default Re: Rick Smith's poor job of managing the cap has closed our window for the time bein

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With that statement, do you think Parcells was also managing the cap?

That whole statement by Kraft is just saying that Belichick understood a reality a lot of football people refused to accept for a long time.
keep reading
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Old 10-27-2013   #250
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Default Re: Rick Smith's poor job of managing the cap has closed our window for the time bein

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Yes I am the guy. The general consenus is the Salary Cap next year will be very close to what is was this year. It would be foolhardy to plan differently.

Then why will the cap go up significantly in 2015? Conventional wisdom says the NFL will expand regular season games to 17 or 18 in 2015. In order to do this owners will need approval of the NFLPA. How do the owners get approval from the players? Significant increase in the salary cap, more money for everyone. In other words, money talks BS walks. Basic logic.

I haven't made up any numbers.

Regarding the long term health of the Texans salary cap you describe, that simply is not true. 2014 is as bad as 2013, Texans will have to replace 15 contracts w/ only $8 million available cap dollars. That averages to just over $500K per contract. That's not enough to meet the basic minimum obligations. 2015 is worse.

You keep talking about cutting Flacco and how much it would cost. Why would they want to cut Flacco? He's a Super Bowl winning QB. All he's done since joining the Ravens is go to the playoffs every year.

Here is something most fans don't realize, it's going to cost as much to sign JJ Watt as it cost to sign Joe Flacco and the Texans still don't have a QB.
You would cut Flacco for the following reasons:

1. He became ineffective.
2. He suffered injuries that made him ineffective.
3. He wasn't worth $30 million against the cap each year.

Can you read the future and say that none of those things will happen in two, three, or four years?

Also, regarding the Texans cap in 2014, the Texans could make the following cuts: OD, Ed Reed, JJoseph, D. Manning, and add $25 million in free cap space. So, if the cap jumps for all 32 teams in the NFL in 2015 (and not just all the teams except Houston, as you have apparently been led to believe), by the time they need to sign JJ Watt to a new deal, they would have close to $60 million in cap space, and that is if they don't cut Schaub next year and get him off the books while saving another $4 million in cap room.

The Texans can be as agile as they determine prudent for the next three or four off-seasons with their roster and personnel decisions with little cap ramification. Here is the link to see their cap situation next year for anyone interested in the facts:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/cap-hit/2014/

notice that most of the large cap hits also have a very low dead money number attached to them. In other words, there are two important numbers on the chart:

1. the 2014 cap figure- which shows how much the player, as the contract is currently structured, will count against next year's cap if he is on the roster.

2. the dead money number- How much the player will count against the cap if he is cut or traded and not on the 53 man roster.
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Old 10-27-2013   #251
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Default Re: Rick Smith's poor job of managing the cap has closed our window for the time bein

i dont think we even have much to worry about with both wade smith and antonio smith coming off the books next year. they're combining for almost 13 million in caps space currently, with cheap alternatives already on the roster (quess and crick). watt's going to eat a good chunk of that, but we dont have a whole lot of escalation next year to hurt us as far as i can tell.

these arguments keep getting shot down, and shot down, and then the final grasp is "what about eric winston?". well, we dont know. he wasnt worth what he thought he was, but with our inability to replace him, winston is worth more than we thought.

either that or they devolve into wanting another coach to bump up against the cap in the same manner. if you want another coach, or you dont like an approach, try arguing that route. to say we're not managing the cap well just doesnt make a lot of sense.

edit: MSR dale, good link.
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Old 10-27-2013   #252
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Default Re: Rick Smith's poor job of managing the cap has closed our window for the time bein

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I think the Ed Reed number there is interesting. $5.3M

That's if he is here next season. People complain about his contract, but I like it. $3.2M this year. That's probably vet minimum if they stretched it out 15 years.

Only cost us $1M to cut him before next season.

So if he did what they thought he would, help us win a Super Bowl..... it cost us $3.2M. If not, we cut him & save $4M against the cap.
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Old 10-27-2013   #253
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Default Re: Rick Smith's poor job of managing the cap has closed our window for the time bein

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I think the Ed Reed number there is interesting. $5.3M

That's if he is here next season. People complain about his contract, but I like it. $3.2M this year. That's probably vet minimum if they stretched it out 15 years.

Only cost us $1M to cut him before next season.

So if he did what they thought he would, help us win a Super Bowl..... it cost us $3.2M. If not, we cut him & save $4M against the cap.
Yeah, but you could sign Blaine Gabbert to play FS and say that, because the chance of him helping the Texans win a Super Bowl is about the same. And those of us that never liked the signing have been screaming it from the rooftops that the reason we didn't like and still do not like the signing is because Ed Reed is D.O.N.E. It didn't take a genius, or even an NFL GM, to notice that.

OK, so I exaggerated with the Gabbert comment, but only slightly.
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Old 10-27-2013   #254
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Default Re: Rick Smith's poor job of managing the cap has closed our window for the time bein

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You would cut Flacco for the following reasons:

1. He became ineffective.
2. He suffered injuries that made him ineffective.
3. He wasn't worth $30 million against the cap each year.

Can you read the future and say that none of those things will happen in two, three, or four years?

Also, regarding the Texans cap in 2014, the Texans could make the following cuts: OD, Ed Reed, JJoseph, D. Manning, and add $25 million in free cap space. So, if the cap jumps for all 32 teams in the NFL in 2015 (and not just all the teams except Houston, as you have apparently been led to believe), by the time they need to sign JJ Watt to a new deal, they would have close to $60 million in cap space, and that is if they don't cut Schaub next year and get him off the books while saving another $4 million in cap room.

The Texans can be as agile as they determine prudent for the next three or four off-seasons with their roster and personnel decisions with little cap ramification. Here is the link to see their cap situation next year for anyone interested in the facts:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/cap-hit/2014/

notice that most of the large cap hits also have a very low dead money number attached to them. In other words, there are two important numbers on the chart:

1. the 2014 cap figure- which shows how much the player, as the contract is currently structured, will count against next year's cap if he is on the roster.

2. the dead money number- How much the player will count against the cap if he is cut or traded and not on the 53 man roster.
So your suggesting that the Ravens should not have re-signed Flacco, let him walk, become a FA. Silly. Your post have become unreasonable. You are arguing for the sake of arguing. That is waste of my time and I don't do that. I hope you will understand if I don't or just stop responding to your comments.
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Old 10-27-2013   #255
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Default Re: Rick Smith's poor job of managing the cap has closed our window for the time bein

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i dont think we even have much to worry about with both wade smith and antonio smith coming off the books next year. they're combining for almost 13 million in caps space currently, with cheap alternatives already on the roster (quess and crick). watt's going to eat a good chunk of that, but we dont have a whole lot of escalation next year to hurt us as far as i can tell.

these arguments keep getting shot down, and shot down, and then the final grasp is "what about eric winston?". well, we dont know. he wasnt worth what he thought he was, but with our inability to replace him, winston is worth more than we thought.

either that or they devolve into wanting another coach to bump up against the cap in the same manner. if you want another coach, or you dont like an approach, try arguing that route. to say we're not managing the cap well just doesnt make a lot of sense.

edit: MSR dale, good link.
I guess when you completely ignore the facts it's easy to assume how arguments get shot down. If you were better informed, not so much. When Wade and Ninja's $13 million salaries along with the other 13 other 2014 Texans Free agents salaries come off the books next year ($21 Million), the Texans are still only able to start the new league year come March only $8 million under the cap. You don't need know math to understand this, simple arithmetic will suffice.

http://www.spotrac.com/free-agents/nfl/houston-texans/

Last edited by Texian; 10-27-2013 at 10:32 AM.
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Old 10-27-2013   #256
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Default Re: Rick Smith's poor job of managing the cap has closed our window for the time bein

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Here is something most fans don't realize, it's going to cost as much to sign JJ Watt as it cost to sign Joe Flacco and the Texans still don't have a QB.
Oh, I realize it. I've been sounding the "JJ Watt contract" alarm loudly the last several months. It's a couple of years away, but it is going to be MASSIVE. That's why I have been saying we have to win NOW. JJ's next contract will necessitate a near-house cleaning to afford him, so we've got to get w's now.
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Old 10-27-2013   #257
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Default Re: Rick Smith's poor job of managing the cap has closed our window for the time bein

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I guess when you completely ignore the facts it's easy to assume how arguments get shot down. If you were better informed, not so much. When Wade and Ninja's $13 million salaries along with the other 13 other 2014 Texans Free agents salaries come off the books next year ($21 Million), the Texans are still only able to start the new league year come March only $8 million under the cap. You don't need know math to understand this, simple arithmetic will suffice.

http://www.spotrac.com/free-agents/nfl/houston-texans/
I know it looks bleak. But the fact is that we're among the most talented teams in the league. That's what our salary cap situation reflects, not the gross mismanagement you're suggesting.

Whitney & Reed
still playing on their rookie contracts, maybe underperforming a bit, but Whitney is on pace for a double sack year.
Antonio & Wade are underperforming.
If it were me & I wanted to lower their cap hits I'd have extended them bringing their 2013 cap hits down, but that would cut into the $8M you're already saying is too low.
Garrett Graham
Is the only one on that list of FAs that needs to be resigned.
As it stands we'll be needing a NT, DE, ILB, Safety (if you cut Reed, adding $4M to your $8M figure), OT, OG, RB, QB

If we cut Jjo that would save us another $12M

Cut Jjo $12M
Cut Reed $4M
Currently under the cap $8M


$24M under the cap. & that's without pushing any money into the future.
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Old 10-27-2013   #258
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Default Re: Rick Smith's poor job of managing the cap has closed our window for the time bein

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
I know it looks bleak. But the fact is that we're among the most talented teams in the league. That's what our salary cap situation reflects, not the gross mismanagement you're suggesting.

Whitney & Reed
still playing on their rookie contracts, maybe underperforming a bit, but Whitney is on pace for a double sack year.
Antonio & Wade are underperforming.
If it were me & I wanted to lower their cap hits I'd have extended them bringing their 2013 cap hits down, but that would cut into the $8M you're already saying is too low.
Garrett Graham
Is the only one on that list of FAs that needs to be resigned.
As it stands we'll be needing a NT, DE, ILB, Safety (if you cut Reed, adding $4M to your $8M figure), OT, OG, RB, QB

If we cut Jjo that would save us another $12M

Cut Jjo $12M
Cut Reed $4M
Currently under the cap $8M


$24M under the cap. & that's without pushing any money into the future.
weak link on D is secondary and J Jo is best DB. How do you replace? Easier said than done.
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Old 10-27-2013   #259
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Default Re: Rick Smith's poor job of managing the cap has closed our window for the time bein

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weak link on D is secondary and J Jo is best DB. How do you replace? Easier said than done.
I don't see a difference between Jjo & Matt Schaub. Both were good enough in their day, but I haven't seen Jjo play at a pro-bowl level in about as long as I've seen Schaub play at that level.

He's definitely not done anything in the last 2 seasons (yet, since this season is far from over) to make me want to take a $10M cap hit.
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Old 10-28-2013   #260
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Default Re: Rick Smith's poor job of managing the cap has closed our window for the time bein

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the NBA lets half the league into the playoffs and morey's only made it 3 of his 7 years. let's not crown anybody until they achieve something. morey plays with the team like it's a video game and the fans love all that movement. that's not the way to win in the NFL.
Well Morey did lose his two top players once he got the job. He then compiled assets for three seasons, with the team never going below .500. If they were in the East, then they would have been a top six seed for those three years the Rockets missed the playoffs. In one year, he has added two top ten players to the team. Fans were getting pissed at all the movement, but now its finally paying off and there will be much more stability in the roster. Chemistry is important in basketball too. No doubt the Rockets are much more forward thinking than the Texans. The Astros are too.
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