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Old 10-26-2013   #1
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Default Third down.

Watching NFC Playbook & they just mentioned how particularly bad a certain team is playing on third down... offensively, so I got to thinking.... our defense can be a whole lot better, if we get a little better on 3rd down.

There are 17 other teams better than we are at getting the offense off the field on third down. We allow a 39% conversion rate, just like Pittsburgh, Miami, & New England. Kansas City is way ahead of the pack with 25%.

In 2011, we allowed 36%..... we forced 13 3rd down situations per game in both 2011 & YTD. So I think we're doing a good job of getting to 3rd down, but we're back to that Frank Bush ole style defense where we're just as apt to give up 3rd & 21 as we are to give up 3rd & 1.


Offensively, we're not converting 3rd downs. In 2011 we converted on 42% of our opportunities. This year, 37%

I know our Head Coach links 3rd down failures to failing on 1st & 2nd downs & there's some truth in that. We've gotten to the point that we pretty much don't even try to convert on 3rd & long if we've got the lead, or if the game is close & we've got time. We signed Lechler in the offseason so while I don't agree with the thinking (I'd run the receivers out there if it's not there, throw the ball away & punt instead of running the draw or screen & picking up an extra 3 or 4 yards)..... it's not helping us much if our defense isn't playing well on 3rd downs.

Anyway.... so, if we just look at third downs, is there anything you're seeing that is stopping us from being as good as we were in 2011?
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Old 10-26-2013   #2
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Default Re: Third down.

No pass rush, and **** play from JJo and our S's.
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Old 10-26-2013   #3
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Default Re: Third down.

Honestly, on the offensive side I think having Case in there greatly expands what we can do on 3rd down. Just look at that 3rd and 3 TD pass and think of how many times you can remember us doing that with Schaub in there. Not saying we should always air it out on a 3rd and short, but that kind of variation keeps the defense honest and keeps us unpredictable.

Defensively I honestly don't know what's going on.
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Old 10-26-2013   #4
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Default Re: Third down.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Watching NFC Playbook & they just mentioned how particularly bad a certain team is playing on third down... offensively, so I got to thinking.... our defense can be a whole lot better, if we get a little better on 3rd down.

There are 17 other teams better than we are at getting the offense off the field on third down. We allow a 39% conversion rate, just like Pittsburgh, Miami, & New England. Kansas City is way ahead of the pack with 25%.
For our away games, that's been 46%.

It would be interesting to see where on the field those 3rd down allowed conversions occurred, in that if a significant percentage occurred in the Red Zone rather than on the other side of the field or far from the opponent's goal line, that could account for that much more of an egregious result.
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Old 10-26-2013   #5
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Default Re: Third down.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vance87 View Post
Honestly, on the offensive side I think having Case in there greatly expands what we can do on 3rd down. Just look at that 3rd and 3 TD pass and think of how many times you can remember us doing that with Schaub in there. Not saying we should always air it out on a 3rd and short, but that kind of variation keeps the defense honest and keeps us unpredictable.
I don't believe we would have taken that shot either, but Schaub was pretty good on 3rd & short. Our problem, for quite some time, is third & long. Unless our back is against the wall, we "don't try" to pick it up. We let Shane flip the field & our defense allows the opponent to march down the field for a TD.

Offensively, that's a safe, conservative way to play football. I don't like it any more than you do...... but if the defense was better on 3rd down, it wouldn't be an issue.
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Old 10-26-2013   #6
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Default Re: Third down.

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
I don't believe we would have taken that shot either, but Schaub was pretty good on 3rd & short. Our problem, for quite some time, is third & long. Unless our back is against the wall, we "don't try" to pick it up. We let Shane flip the field & our defense allows the opponent to march down the field for a TD.

Offensively, that's a safe, conservative way to play football. I don't like it any more than you do...... but if the defense was better on 3rd down, it wouldn't be an issue.
Last year he was below average, compared to the other QBs in the league. Most of the time we just handed it off. And other times, well...

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Old 10-26-2013   #7
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Default Re: Third down.

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Originally Posted by Vance87 View Post
Last year he was below average, compared to the other QBs in the league. Most of the time we just handed it off. And other times, well...
Even if that pass was a completion, it was behind the Line of Scrimmage. On 3rd and 4.
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Old 10-27-2013   #8
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Default Re: Third down.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vance87 View Post
Honestly, on the offensive side I think having Case in there greatly expands what we can do on 3rd down. Just look at that 3rd and 3 TD pass and think of how many times you can remember us doing that with Schaub in there. Not saying we should always air it out on a 3rd and short, but that kind of variation keeps the defense honest and keeps us unpredictable.

Defensively I honestly don't know what's going on.
Didn't Schaub do that same fade route to Hopkins in the Tennessee game, but actually connected?
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Old 10-27-2013   #9
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Default Re: Third down.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vance87 View Post
Last year he was below average, compared to the other QBs in the league. Most of the time we just handed it off. And other times, well...

And yet the D still had a chance to stop them after that...
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Old 10-27-2013   #10
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Default Re: Third down.

We need to draft some inside linebackers like C.J. Mosley in the first round if we pick high enough. If not, I'd still try and trade up for him. We're so thin at ILB it's not even funny anymore. We need some new blood on defense. We need a total overhaul of the roster on defense. We are doing J.J. Watt a disservice by not surrounding him with more talent in that front seven.

We don't have the personnel to run a proper 3-4 defense. Of course we're not going to get off the field on third downs. The middle of the field is so wide open especially now without Brian Cushing. Opponents can run or pass with big gaping holes out there. Ed Reed just needs to retire after this season. That is looking like a bad signing as well.

In the next draft, I would load up on defensive picks early and often. Maybe draft an offensive tackle and quarterback in the second or third round, but we need to solve this inside linebacker problem before it lingers into the 2014 season.
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Old 10-27-2013   #11
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Default Re: Third down.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Surreal McCoy View Post
And yet the D still had a chance to stop them after that...
The defense did stop the Seahawks on their initial drive in OT. Schaub had 3 chances to give the Texans a win after his bonehead mistake. He failed. How many more chances would he have needed?
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Old 10-27-2013   #12
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Default Re: Third down.

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Originally Posted by dream_team View Post
Didn't Schaub do that same fade route to Hopkins in the Tennessee game, but actually connected?
Read it again, I'm talking about the 3rd and 3 TD play
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Old 10-27-2013   #13
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Default Re: Third down.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Watching NFC Playbook & they just mentioned how particularly bad a certain team is playing on third down... offensively, so I got to thinking.... our defense can be a whole lot better, if we get a little better on 3rd down.

There are 17 other teams better than we are at getting the offense off the field on third down. We allow a 39% conversion rate, just like Pittsburgh, Miami, & New England. Kansas City is way ahead of the pack with 25%.

In 2011, we allowed 36%..... we forced 13 3rd down situations per game in both 2011 & YTD. So I think we're doing a good job of getting to 3rd down, but we're back to that Frank Bush ole style defense where we're just as apt to give up 3rd & 21 as we are to give up 3rd & 1.


Offensively, we're not converting 3rd downs. In 2011 we converted on 42% of our opportunities. This year, 37%

I know our Head Coach links 3rd down failures to failing on 1st & 2nd downs & there's some truth in that. We've gotten to the point that we pretty much don't even try to convert on 3rd & long if we've got the lead, or if the game is close & we've got time. We signed Lechler in the offseason so while I don't agree with the thinking (I'd run the receivers out there if it's not there, throw the ball away & punt instead of running the draw or screen & picking up an extra 3 or 4 yards)..... it's not helping us much if our defense isn't playing well on 3rd downs.

Anyway.... so, if we just look at third downs, is there anything you're seeing that is stopping us from being as good as we were in 2011?
Frequent blitzes on 3rd and long have a lot to do with it. Maybe we do it 'cause our linebackers can't play coverage.
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Old 10-27-2013   #14
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Default Re: Third down.

3rd and 20, saints up by 11 with about 8 mins left at home against buffalo. Saints ball.

What happens?

Sean Peyton calls a pass, Brees moves around buys some time and throws it up to his rookie WR in the endzone with a defender all over him for like a 40 yard TD pass.

Killer instinct. Some teams have it. Some teams don't.

Schaub and kubiak would have been content with running a draw and punting.

But I can't blame kubiak. If Schaub was my qb I'd probably be a be a nervous Nellie too.
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Old 10-27-2013   #15
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Default Re: Third down.

On offense, it's simple. 25 out of 37 passes on third And long were thrown short of the first down line. (I believe These stats are before Case) defenses realize that Schaub is immobile and with the slightest bit of pressure will go to his predictable dump off or hot read.

Having Case in should help unless or god forbid until Kubiak starts tugging the leash and making Case into the same kind of puppet Schaub was. You have to trust and allow your QB to make plays. We will see if Kubiak is capable of that IF Case gets some more playing time.

On defense, it's just as simple. We get no push up the middle. Mitchell sucks and should only be a backup. If we had someone Between Watt and Smith who could demand a double team and push the pocket it would free those two up and take pressure off our ILBs. Getting more pressure will even help our secondary. It would also allow our OLBs to become more than edge setters which they are now.
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Old 10-27-2013   #16
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Default Re: Third down.

Offensively, we've got to get better on 1st & 2nd downs..... if we stay out of third & long, we convert more 3rd downs.

Defensively..... we're pretty good at getting them to 3rd & long, not so good at stopping it. Either we'll give up a penalty, or miss a hundred tackles, even if the ball is thrown well short of the sticks, like the 3rd & 21 vs KC.
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Old 10-27-2013   #17
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Default Re: Third down.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Bills View Post
the reason why we are so bad on 3rd down is painfully obvious.

We are always running on 2nd and long situations. In a analytics/sabermetrics sports world, that has been figured out by most teams using analytics and yet the texans continually run on 2nd and long. Add the fact that schaub is your quarterback who cant be bothered to throw past the 3rd down marker your problem is compounded.
Quote:
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On offense, it's simple. 25 out of 37 passes on third And long were thrown short of the first down line. (I believe These stats are before Case) defenses realize that Schaub is immobile and with the slightest bit of pressure will go to his predictable dump off or hot read.

Having Case in should help unless or god forbid until Kubiak starts tugging the leash and making Case into the same kind of puppet Schaub was. You have to trust and allow your QB to make plays. We will see if Kubiak is capable of that IF Case gets some more playing time.
If you fellows keep pointing out these flaws in our crummy coaching, you're going to get me mad.
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Old 10-27-2013   #18
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Default Re: Third down.

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Originally Posted by Lord Bills View Post
the reason why we are so bad on 3rd down is painfully obvious.

We are always running on 2nd and long situations. In a analytics/sabermetrics sports world, that has been figured out by most teams using analytics and yet the texans continually run on 2nd and long. Add the fact that schaub is your quarterback who cant be bothered to throw past the 3rd down marker your problem is compounded.
Obvious, always and continually must mean something different to you.

2013 2nd and 6+ - 58 passes, 28 runs - 67% passes.

2012 2nd and 6+ - 144 passes, 64 runs - 69% passes.
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Old 10-27-2013   #19
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Default Re: Third down.

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Originally Posted by Seegara View Post
If you fellows keep pointing out these flaws in our crummy coaching, you're going to get me mad.
Use your eyes Seegara..... what they are pointing out isn't factual.

What we do is not as different from what other teams do. Watch Denver, watch Indy, watch New England. On third & long, a pass short of the sticks is not uncommon.

It's also not a big deal, unless you're in a must score situation, down by a touchdown or more & the clock is against you.

Remember this play on 4th & 30.

Some teams have play makers who make plays in those situations, we don't, not as consistently as we need them to anyway.
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Old 10-27-2013   #20
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Default Re: Third down.

Offensive line sucks.

Defense is weak up the middle. Ineffective blitz leaves Dbs hung out to dry.
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