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Old 10-16-2013   #41
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Default Re: Don Banks: Kubiak appears to be out of answers

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
Not to knock down your straw man or anything, but do you remember what the vibe was around here after the 2011 season? A loss in the playoffs and people were optimistic and hopeful. Contrast that with the 2012 season and people knew it was over before they even got to the playoffs. The point behind that is people recognize the subtleties of the situation. The Texans have been a mediocre team for almost all of Kubiak's regime. Take away the 12-4 season and what record does he have? 49-53. I'm not saying 12-4 meant nothing, and I'm happy it happened, even though the previous season was actually better. What I'm saying is 12-4 is an outlier. It's a deviation from the norm. If you look at the team's record since they were 11-1 last season, they're 3-7.

So which is it? We have a consistent winning team, or we have a team that overachieved for a short period of time? It's sure looking like the latter, and the math backs it up.
You and I are trying to make completely different points. I am not trying to argue that the Texans are a consistently successful team. I am merely pointing out two observations that tend to be at odds with one another:

1. The overall general consensus on this MB that division titles and wildcard wins are not acceptable moving forward. This team must make it to Super Bowls to be considered successful.

2. Then this abomination of a season started happening, and interpretation of which other teams in the league are judged as "consistently successful" changed to being based on them "having a shot" at being a Super Bowl contender, as opposed to a proven track record of consistently getting there.

No one can argue that the Saints, Packers, Colts and Ravens haven't been consistently successful franchises from a win-lose and divisional championship perspective. But from a getting to the Super Bowl perspective? Not even close when you add the word "consistent".

In the five years with Rodgers, the Packers have gotten past the divisional round once, in their SB year. In the 10 years before that with Favre, they made one NFC title game. In 13 years with Manning, the Colts got through the divisional round THREE times, even though they consistently racked up 12 win seasons. The Ravens made the AFC championship game once in the 12 years between their Super Bowls.

But I guess because they have the mythical and highly subject "shot" to get there, that allows Texan Fan to say they are "consistently" successful while declaring their hometown team is a failure unless they actually get there.

Again, this is not to say that I think the Texans are consistent, consistently successful, or consistently "have a shot". Just pointing out the moving goalposts when people want to compare them to other teams.
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Old 10-16-2013   #42
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Default Re: Don Banks: Kubiak appears to be out of answers

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You and I are trying to make completely different points. I am not trying to argue that the Texans are a consistently successful team. I am merely pointing out two observations that tend to be at odds with one another:

1. The overall general consensus on this MB that division titles and wildcard wins are not acceptable moving forward. This team must make it to Super Bowls to be considered successful.

2. Then this abomination of a season started happening, and interpretation of which other teams in the league are judged as "consistently successful" changed to being based on them "having a shot" at being a Super Bowl contender, as opposed to a proven track record of consistently getting there.

No one can argue that the Saints, Packers, Colts and Ravens haven't been consistently successful franchises from a win-lose and divisional championship perspective. But from a getting to the Super Bowl perspective? Not even close when you add the word "consistent".

In the five years with Rodgers, the Packers have gotten past the divisional round once, in their SB year. In the 10 years before that with Favre, they made one NFC title game. In 13 years with Manning, the Colts got through the divisional round THREE times, even though they consistently racked up 12 win seasons. The Ravens made the AFC championship game once in the 12 years between their Super Bowls.

But I guess because they have the mythical and highly subject "shot" to get there, that allows Texan Fan to say they are "consistently" successful while declaring their hometown team is a failure unless they actually get there.

Again, this is not to say that I think the Texans are consistent, consistently successful, or consistently "have a shot". Just pointing out the moving goalposts when people want to compare them to other teams.
Not saying this to be mean, but you're kind of all over the map here.

As it relates to other teams' consistency:

1.) what is their record over the past 5 years? Consistent winners? Consistently mediocre?

2.) How often do they advance to the playoffs? Anyone in the playoffs technically has a shot, though we know from last year's experience here that some teams are dead man walking going in.

3.) How often does this other team (whoever is being compared) choke when the games are on the line? A loss can be acceptable (Texans 2011 playoff loss), or a loss can be ridiculous (pick one of the many blowouts since the 11-1 start).

As it relates to the Texans:

1.) A Super Bowl win is the goal, of course. But I think you'll be hard pressed to find anyone who wasn't optimistic and hopeful after the 2011 playoff loss around here. That disproves the notion that a Super Bowl win is ALL that matters. Progress matters. Good play matters. Not dashing the hopes of your fan base one blowout at a time matters.

2.) As for the nebulous concept of having a shot, fans felt better going into the 2011 playoffs with a 5th round rookie QB than they did going into the 2012 playoffs with a seasoned veteran that was supposedly all that was missing from the 2011 team. Point being, the QB matters a lot. This team has no shot at a Super Bowl with Schaub under center. OK, mathematically, yes they do, but anyone with eyes knows better. Teams that have guys like Brady, Brees, Manning, or Rodgers ALWAYS have a shot. It's just the nature of the NFL these days. The rules changes and evolution of the game unfairly reward those with a great QB, moreso than teams with a great <insert any other position>.

At the end of the day, the Texans actually have been consistent, with just one deviation from that consistency. Now they are reverting to the mean.
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Old 10-16-2013   #43
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Default Re: Don Banks: Kubiak appears to be out of answers

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UH OH

#suck4chuck
Listen to it on 790, about 25 minutes in
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Old 10-16-2013   #44
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Default Re: Don Banks: Kubiak appears to be out of answers

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When exactly do you feel this issue is going to force itself?
Good question, since JJ contract is, I think, up at the end of next season. I'm guessing that's when it'll go down. If I had to guess, I'm betting that the Texans (who sill still have Kubiak leading it) will try and make a deal with JJ, and his people will say, "No."


No way will he waste his career here unless changes are made.
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Old 10-16-2013   #45
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Default Re: Don Banks: Kubiak appears to be out of answers

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Originally Posted by houstonspartan View Post
Good question, since JJ contract is, I think, up at the end of next season. I'm guessing that's when it'll go down. If I had to guess, I'm betting that the Texans (who sill still have Kubiak leading it) will try and make a deal with JJ, and his people will say, "No."


No way will he waste his career here unless changes are made.
See, this is why I hate this particular issue being brought up, as most of the time the folks bringing this up don't point out the realities of his contract situation.

His current contract is up at the end of 2014, but there's a unilateral one year option that the Texans can exercise at an amount well below what JJ's market value will be. Without going into detail, suffice it to say that as the 11th pick in 2011, that 5th year for JJ will be considerably less expensive than if he'd been a top 10 pick. After that, there are two years that JJ can be franchised at reasonable amounts. The first year will be whatever the DE franchise amount is (in 2013 it was just north of $11 Million), and the second year it will be 120% of the first year amount. That second franchised year (2017) will admittedly be expensive, but it's likely still less than market value, and less than you'd be willing to let him walk for (even with the possibility of a compensatory pick).

So my point is the folks who are concerned about this either don't understand the situation, or are worrying about something that likely won't happen for another 4 1/2 years.
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Old 10-16-2013   #46
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Default Re: Don Banks: Kubiak appears to be out of answers

Kubiak is a mediocre HC who has no guts, swagger and often has been out coached by many. Base on those two things alone leads me to believe he can't handle high expectation and failing miserably. His decision to have Schaub as our QB has sunk down the entire ship and yalw know it. On top of the personel making regarding assitance coaches...it's embarrassing. Our D has played well enough all season until they got the life sucked out of them bc of the pathetic under achieve offense. I think this season is as good as gone for us. Unless Kubiac has nine lives, I don't see him coming back next year(which ironically would be his 9th season). My wish is to make Wade the interim HC and start a different QB and find a new HC and QB next year. But we all know that's just wishful thinking (
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Old 10-16-2013   #47
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Default Re: Don Banks: Kubiak appears to be out of answers

Good read Vinny, thanks for posting. Depressing as hell but the truth sometimes hurts. Not so much in the comparing of Shula's coaching career vs. Kubiak's because as has been pointed out many times it's a different game and league today but seeing Kubiak's stark numbers can't be whitewashed.

I've been a sipper, I've been a gulper, I've been a Kool-Aid colored glasses wearer and a SunShine Pumper. Those days are behind me.

I want what's best for my team and they're not wearing the headsets on the sidelines right now. Will McNair have the bollocks to eat a year of contract and search for a new head coach in earnest? I truthfully don't know. I want to say he will but I've got this creepy, slithering clammy feeling that he won't. I don't know how much it would have to do with having to eat year of salary for the HC that couldn't or if he really thinks his HC can "pull it together".

It's past time for a change. If we end up losing who'll more than likely go down as the best interior D-lineman in NFL history I would be way past livid!

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Good read......8 years is enough...time to upgrade from flip phone kubiak to an i phone caliber coach!!! Make it happen bob!
Hey back off! Other than my flipper not holding a charge for over 3 days now vs. 5'ish when new "She's a trooper!"
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Old 10-16-2013   #48
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Default Re: Don Banks: Kubiak appears to be out of answers

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During the 8-8, 9-7, and 6-10 seasons, the incremental improvement, baby step, build the "right way" (haha) approach was praised by Kubiak's supporters. They claimed that was how Landry, Noll, Cowher and other legends did it, and it guaranteed a decade of playoff appearances for the Texans once that milestone was reached. We just had to be patient so Kubiak could add his name to the coaching legends list.

The argument that the league had changed as you describe above, as well as the need for faster progress, was not received well.

Therefore I find your post ironic.
It may very well be ironic, but I'm not one of the people who was comparing Kubiak to Landry and others. Even so, football bypasses even the most legendary coaches, like Landry. OTOH, if you think you have a coach or a GM with a vision, then why not give him an extended opportunity? McNair obviously thought Kubiak was one of those people.

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Tell that to the Packers, Patriots, Colts, and Steelers...Ravens....Etc, etc...
This particular subthread has sort of taken off in a direction that I didn't intend. I didn't say it was impossible to have extended stretches of success, I just said it was more difficult. There is still a right way to develop your franchise, it's just very different from what it was in the Schula era, so the comparison is incorrect, IMO.

Lucking into a great QB seems to make a lot of average coaches good, and a lot of good coaches great. That is the main road to success these days. Even Belichick needed to get lucky with a QB to fully realize his own potential.

Ravens and Steelers from your list above are the only ones that can sort of meet the standard of prolonged success. The other three teams have had great QB's to build around, which makes things much simpler.
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Old 10-16-2013   #49
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Default Re: Don Banks: Kubiak appears to be out of answers

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I've been a sipper, I've been a gulper, I've been a Kool-Aid colored glasses wearer and a SunShine Pumper. Those days are behind me.

I want what's best for my team and they're not wearing the headsets on the sidelines right now.
One things for sure, they don't play well, when people expect them to. Now, since they probably won't be favored to win anything but the Jags game (I bet Indy is a 3 point favorite at home after the bye), they'll probably surprised a few people.
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Old 10-17-2013   #50
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Default Re: Don Banks: Kubiak appears to be out of answers

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IMO, the greater problem with this team is McNair. Kubiak should have been gone after that season. McNair's personal affection for people keeps setting this team back. First it was David Carr, now it's Kubiak.
I agree with this. I think he also had a horse named after Dom Caper's wife. His personal affection clouds his judgement. Unfortunately for the overall good of the franchise that affection has been directed at the people that have the highest probability to influence the team's success.
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Old 10-17-2013   #51
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Default Re: Don Banks: Kubiak appears to be out of answers

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
Not saying this to be mean, but you're kind of all over the map here.

As it relates to other teams' consistency:

1.) what is their record over the past 5 years? Consistent winners? Consistently mediocre?

2.) How often do they advance to the playoffs? Anyone in the playoffs technically has a shot, though we know from last year's experience here that some teams are dead man walking going in.

3.) How often does this other team (whoever is being compared) choke when the games are on the line? A loss can be acceptable (Texans 2011 playoff loss), or a loss can be ridiculous (pick one of the many blowouts since the 11-1 start).

As it relates to the Texans:

1.) A Super Bowl win is the goal, of course. But I think you'll be hard pressed to find anyone who wasn't optimistic and hopeful after the 2011 playoff loss around here. That disproves the notion that a Super Bowl win is ALL that matters. Progress matters. Good play matters. Not dashing the hopes of your fan base one blowout at a time matters.

2.) As for the nebulous concept of having a shot, fans felt better going into the 2011 playoffs with a 5th round rookie QB than they did going into the 2012 playoffs with a seasoned veteran that was supposedly all that was missing from the 2011 team. Point being, the QB matters a lot. This team has no shot at a Super Bowl with Schaub under center. OK, mathematically, yes they do, but anyone with eyes knows better. Teams that have guys like Brady, Brees, Manning, or Rodgers ALWAYS have a shot. It's just the nature of the NFL these days. The rules changes and evolution of the game unfairly reward those with a great QB, moreso than teams with a great <insert any other position>.

At the end of the day, the Texans actually have been consistent, with just one deviation from that consistency. Now they are reverting to the mean.
Lete me see if I can try this another way:

Texan fan says, "This team can't get beyond a Divisional playoff game! Why can't they be successful like the Packers/Ravens/Colts/Saints??"

To which I was pointing out, none of those teams have any history over the last decade of consistently making it beyond a Divisional playoff game. Manning has done it only three times in his entire career, for Christ's' sake.

After only two years of getting to Divisional games, Texan Fan is stating that getting to Divisional games isn't good enough anymore. Then points to teams that rarely make it past Divisional games themselves.

It just seems like some people on here keep using the wrong model (teams) to express their expectations of what this team should be.

Talk about the Patriots. Talk about the Steelers. Focus on the organization, and not the QB that they wish the Texans had instead of Schaub.
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Old 10-17-2013   #52
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Default Re: Don Banks: Kubiak appears to be out of answers

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Lete me see if I can try this another way:

Texan fan says, "This team can't get beyond a Divisional playoff game! Why can't they be successful like the Packers/Ravens/Colts/Saints??"

To which I was pointing out, none of those teams have any history over the last decade of consistently making it beyond a Divisional playoff game. Manning has done it only three times in his entire career, for Christ's' sake.

After only two years of getting to Divisional games, Texan Fan is stating that getting to Divisional games isn't good enough anymore. Then points to teams that rarely make it past Divisional games themselves.

It just seems like some people on here keep using the wrong model (teams) to express their expectations of what this team should be.

Talk about the Patriots. Talk about the Steelers. Focus on the organization, and not the QB that they wish the Texans had instead of Schaub.
I don't know who said the Texans have to get to the divisional playoff game every year to be successful; it wasn't me anyway. The original discussion was about being a consistent winner or threat. To summarize the record of the Kubiak Texans for his seven complete seasons:

Mean (average wins): 8.4 less than half of a game above .500
Median: 8 wins.
Mode (most common records): two each for 6-10 and 8-8.

This has been an average team, and this season is trending toward 8-8 or worse. It isn't about making the divisional playoffs for me. A successful team should be above average, or I don't understand how "successful" is being used. All of the win/loss stats point to just average and usually missing the playoffs. That is not a successful regime, even though they had a very successful season last year.

In defending the team, many say the Texans were "better than their record" for several of the seasons they missed the playoffs. To me, being a perennial underachiever is even more of a condemnation of the coaching. Any way it is sliced average results are average results.

All spin and homerism aside, the Texans are 2-4 right now with a tough schedule ahead. They are unlikely to get 10 wins or to the playoffs this year, which will really make the 12-4 record stand out as an anomaly. Are two playoff appearances in eight years - 25% - the mark of a successful franchise? I don't think it makes the Texans stand out as such.

A season after season expectation over average for this regime is a high expectation indeed.
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Old 10-17-2013   #53
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Default Re: Don Banks: Kubiak appears to be out of answers

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Lete me see if I can try this another way:

Texan fan says, "This team can't get beyond a Divisional playoff game! Why can't they be successful like the Packers/Ravens/Colts/Saints??"

To which I was pointing out, none of those teams have any history over the last decade of consistently making it beyond a Divisional playoff game. Manning has done it only three times in his entire career, for Christ's' sake.
That's one of the silliest arguments I've heard and it shows that you still don't get the point. Id rather be in the position of every single tam you named. Phill kept Andy Reid around for all those years because the hope was there. No one knows what's going to happen. But as a fan you want to go into games thinking you have a good shot. You want to go into the playoffs thinking your tea is good enough to win games against tough opponents.

Most fans do not feel that way about the texans. Make me feel good and want to go out to games to support.




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Talk about the Patriots. Talk about the Steelers. Focus on the organization, and not the QB that they wish the Texans had instead of Schaub.
So is all really about leave Schaub alone. Makes sense now.
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Old 10-17-2013   #54
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Default Re: Don Banks: Kubiak appears to be out of answers

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So is all really about leave Schaub alone. Makes sense now.
Hardly. I don't post much here, but I've been just as vocal (I believe even here in this thread) as the next guy that Kubes and Matty Half-Ear are not the future of this franchise. I wanted them to be. I gave them every opportunity as a fan to be. They have both simply failed to meet expectations and I want the team to go in a different direction from both of them at the end of this year. But nice ad hominem...
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Old 10-17-2013   #55
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Default Re: Don Banks: Kubiak appears to be out of answers

[quote=Rey;2231350]That's one of the silliest arguments I've heard and it shows that you still don't get the point. Id rather be in the position of every single tam you named. Phill kept Andy Reid around for all those years because the hope was there. No one knows what's going to happen. But as a fan you want to go into games thinking you have a good shot. You want to go into the playoffs thinking your tea is good enough to win games against tough opponents.

Most fans do not feel that way about the texans. Make me feel good and want to go out to games to support.

Great post, The Texans fans just want to not be embarassed on national TV games. Be it in the regular season or the playoffs. The Texans have been consistently avg for 8 yrs under Kubiak. Remeber the 2009 season when 9-7 was haile as some kind of great success? Then 2010 happened, (Gary missing the combine for an elective surgry after the 2009 season still irks me. Do you think Belichick/Johnson Parcells etc... would've missed the combine like Gary did) The Texans had a 12-4 2012 season and hailed themselves as SB contenders. Now in 2013 they're falling flat on their faces again. Does anybody see s consistent pattern here?

Speaking of consistency, there has only been one thing consistent about Garys teams, the inability of Gary to get his team to play hard for 4 qtrs each game.
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Old 10-17-2013   #56
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Default Re: Don Banks: Kubiak appears to be out of answers

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Originally Posted by Runner View Post
I don't know who said the Texans have to get to the divisional playoff game every year to be successful; it wasn't me anyway. The original discussion was about being a consistent winner or threat. To summarize the record of the Kubiak Texans for his seven complete seasons:

Mean (average wins): 8.4 less than half of a game above .500
Median: 8 wins.
Mode (most common records): two each for 6-10 and 8-8.


This has been an average team, and this season is trending toward 8-8 or worse. It isn't about making the divisional playoffs for me. A successful team should be above average, or I don't understand how "successful" is being used. All of the win/loss stats point to just average and usually missing the playoffs. That is not a successful regime, even though they had a very successful season last year.
I like this exercise. For perspective, over the same period of time:

Pats:
Mean: 12.6 wins
Median: 12 wins
Mode: 12 wins

Colts:
Mean: 10.6 wins
Median: 12 wins
Mods: 12 wins

Packers:
Mean: 10.6 wins
Median: 11 wins
Mode: 11 wins

Ravens:
Mean: 10.3 wins
Median: 11 wins
Mode: 12 wins

Steelers:
Mean: 10.1 wins
Median: 10 wins
Mode: 12 wins

Giants:
Mean: 9.4 wins
Median: 9 wins
Mode: 8, 9, 10 wins (2 each)
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Old 10-17-2013   #57
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Default Re: Don Banks: Kubiak appears to be out of answers

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Originally Posted by nero THE zero View Post
I like this exercise. For perspective, over the same period of time:
...
Thanks for doing the hard work. I didn't realize some of those numbers would be so high.
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Old 10-17-2013   #58
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Default Re: Don Banks: Kubiak appears to be out of answers

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Originally Posted by Runner View Post
Thanks for doing the hard work. I didn't realize some of those numbers would be so high.
It certainly brings Kubiak's record into perspective.
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Old 10-17-2013   #59
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Default Re: Don Banks: Kubiak appears to be out of answers

Quote:
Originally Posted by nero THE zero View Post
I like this exercise. For perspective, over the same period of time:

Pats:
Mean: 12.6 wins
Median: 12 wins
Mode: 12 wins

Colts:
Mean: 10.6 wins
Median: 12 wins
Mods: 12 wins

Packers:
Mean: 10.6 wins
Median: 11 wins
Mode: 11 wins

Ravens:
Mean: 10.3 wins
Median: 11 wins
Mode: 12 wins

Steelers:
Mean: 10.1 wins
Median: 10 wins
Mode: 12 wins

Giants:
Mean: 9.4 wins
Median: 9 wins
Mode: 8, 9, 10 wins (2 each)

I don't think any view of Kubiak's performance should be lessened by the 2006 season. Frankly, it was one hell of a coaching job to get six wins out of that team he inherited. Between the cap situation they were in and the incredible lack of talent, remove that season from view and then analyze the data.

I think critics of Kubiak have a good point. I don't have too many issues with his performance as head coach through 2009. However, he made a number of costly decisions that directly led to the 2010 cliff- all of them avoidable (and he had plenty of head coaching experience at that point. I thought he did a very good job in 2011, both before Schaub was injured and keeping things moving with Yates. In 2012, he did an average job, IMO, with the talent around him and the circumstances. This year, we are staring at a cliff again. It appears we may waste a great opportunity (this is the healthiest and most talented team we have had). If he doesn't right the ship and get this team playing well and into the playoffs, I do not disagree that he would "deserve" to be fired.

Personally, I am a big fan of Kubiak and don't want it to happen. Still, if the season continues to disappoint, I can't make a good argument on his behalf. I would expect McNair will make the move if that happens. My hope, then, is that McNair does not hire Wade but goes and gets a strong leader with vision. I like Wade as a D.C., but we would be saddled with the same problems... Wade is not a difference-maker on game day, and he does not have the dynamic vision that Kubiak lacks, IMO. Even more important, his coaching circle, from which his staff would be built, is certainly nothing to be excited about either!
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