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Old 09-24-2013   #1
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Default Percentage of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ

I came across this very pertinent article that reflects many of our concerns about the low numbers of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ.


Quote:
On the Texans throwing into the end zone
June, 27, 2013

By Paul Kuharsky | ESPN.com


Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus Fantasy caught my eye with this tweet on Wednesday:


Quote:
Mike Clay @MikeClayNFL

Fun Fact - Over the last five years, 2,015 (or 53%) of NFL passing TDs were scored when the receiver caught the ball in the endzone.
2:46 PM - 26 Jun 2013


It made me think immediately of the Houston Texans, who consistently failed to throw the ball into the end zone often enough last season.

In their playoff victory over Cincinnati, they were crazily conservative when it came to trying to get into the end zone.


I asked Katharine Sharp and Jason Starrett of ESPN Stats & Information to check Clay’s stat (he’s right) and to run some more numbers for me.

Since 2008, just 44.7 percent of Houston’s touchdown passes have been caught in the end zone. That’s the third-lowest number in the NFL over that span, ahead of only Arizona (39.3 percent) and Tampa Bay (41.8 percent).

Over the past five years, here’s the percentage of Texans touchdown passes thrown into the end zone:

2008: 61.9
2009: 44.8
2010: 62.5
2011: 45.0
2012: 31.8


Last season, when Houston made me crazy with its conservative play against the Bengals in that playoff win, just one of the Texans' seven red-zone throws was into the end zone.

The Panthers caught 26.3 percent of their touchdown passes in the end zone in 2012, the low mark in the league. The Cardinals posted a 27.3 percent mark. The Texans, a team far better than Carolina or Arizona, were third-worst, at 31.8.

At least they did some work to offset it defensively. They allowed the fifth-lowest percentage of TD passes thrown in the end zone at 37.9.

And it's not as if the Texans were a complete passing dud. They had 22 touchdown passes, just under the league average (23.7). They got a touchdown on 56.1 percent of their trips into the red zone, not a great number but still 12th in the NFL. There was a big gap, however, between them and the league's best offenses -- the Packers, Saints and Patriots all got touchdowns at least 68.1 percent of the time they got inside the 20. Boost last year's Texans to that level, they would have had seven more touchdowns.

I hope coach Gary Kubiak has spent part of the offseason reconsidering the team’s strategy about accepting what’s given to it in the red zone, where check-downs are going to be readily available but plays that produce seven points are far more important.

Sure, there are catch-and-run opportunities in games. But especially once an offense is in the red zone, defenses are playing to keep people in front of them. It's passive, and even a bit naive, to think you can have a great deal of success getting touchdowns instead of settling for field goals by throwing underneath when you're at close range.


First-round draft pick DeAndre Hopkins, a receiver who comes into the league looking NFL-ready, could help the Texans threaten the end zone better and more often.

As for the rest of the division:

Our three other teams were also below average in terms of touchdown passes thrown into the end zone, with the Colts at 43.5, Jaguars at 45.0 and the Titans at 47.1.
CHECK OUT THIS ARTICLE'S TABLE OF ALL NFL TEAMS STATS
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Old 09-24-2013   #2
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Default Re: Percentage of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ

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Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger View Post
I came across this very pertinent article that reflects many of our concerns about the low numbers of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ.
I don't know how pertinent that article is when we're top 10 scoring at least over the last two years & we won 10 & 12 games over that time period. Makes you think that throwing into the end zone in itself is not conducive to winning football games.... & that's what it's all about right? Winning football games?
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Old 09-24-2013   #3
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Default Re: Percentage of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
I don't know how pertinent that article is when we're top 10 scoring at least over the last two years & we won 10 & 12 games over that time period. Makes you think that throwing into the end zone in itself is not conducive to winning football games.... & that's what it's all about right? Winning football games?
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Old 09-24-2013   #4
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Default Re: Percentage of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ

Can't think of a better place to post this... but I'm rewatching the game right now & Matt Schaub looks sharp with 1:00 left in the first half. He's getting rid of the ball quick, very decisive & very accurate. The ball is put right where the receiver needs it, they're not scooping it off the ground, or bending over backwards. One in particular to DeAndre on the left sideline, Matt throws the ball before Hop makes his move to get to the outside. & it's on target.

Again, there is no doubt in my mind that Matt Schaub will hit his numbers. 4000 yards, twenty-some TDs (maybe even 30) 12-16 INTs.... I'd like to think that will translate into 11 or so wins, hopefully the division.

He's looking as good as he ever has & with these receivers, he's going to look better before it's all said & done.

Now is the time to get on the bandwagon. We're going to the Super Bowl.
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Old 09-24-2013   #5
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Default Re: Percentage of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Can't think of a better place to post this... but I'm rewatching the game right now & Matt Schaub looks sharp with 1:00 left in the first half. He's getting rid of the ball quick, very decisive & very accurate. The ball is put right where the receiver needs it, they're not scooping it off the ground, or bending over backwards. One in particular to DeAndre on the left sideline, Matt throws the ball before Hop makes his move to get to the outside. & it's on target.

Again, there is no doubt in my mind that Matt Schaub will hit his numbers. 4000 yards, twenty-some TDs (maybe even 30) 12-16 INTs.... I'd like to think that will translate into 11 or so wins, hopefully the division.

He's looking as good as he ever has & with these receivers, he's going to look better before it's all said & done.

Now is the time to get on the bandwagon. We're going to the Super Bowl.
....and then there was Peyton Manning.
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Old 09-25-2013   #6
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Can't think of a better place to post this... but I'm rewatching the game right now & Matt Schaub looks sharp with 1:00 left in the first half. He's getting rid of the ball quick, very decisive & very accurate. The ball is put right where the receiver needs it, they're not scooping it off the ground, or bending over backwards. One in particular to DeAndre on the left sideline, Matt throws the ball before Hop makes his move to get to the outside. & it's on target.

Again, there is no doubt in my mind that Matt Schaub will hit his numbers. 4000 yards, twenty-some TDs (maybe even 30) 12-16 INTs.... I'd like to think that will translate into 11 or so wins, hopefully the division.

He's looking as good as he ever has & with these receivers, he's going to look better before it's all said & done.

Now is the time to get on the bandwagon. We're going to the Super Bowl.
Houston VS Seattle was my pre season SB pick. We may get a preview on Sunday.

You guys are definitely better than you have been the first two weeks. Shocked that you lost to Baltimore.
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Old 09-25-2013   #7
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Default Re: Percentage of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ

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. Shocked that you lost to Baltimore.
I'm not shocked that we lost so much as the way we lost. 17-9 isn't insurmountable for this offense, neither is 24-9. But they got us where they wanted us (same place we want them) & they took it to us, exactly what we did to them last year.
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Old 09-25-2013   #8
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Default Re: Percentage of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ

Four years above the Texans' purported average and one under looked wrong. Sure enough someone messed up on the overall calculation. Using their yearly percentages means 57 TDs in the endzone out of 116 total so 49.1%.

For perspective, at the league average the Texans would have had 61.5 TDs in the end zone so 4.5 more over the five year time period - not even one per year.
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Old 09-25-2013   #9
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Default Re: Percentage of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ

Sumb!tch musta read TexansTalk cause I said the same thing on Sunday .....


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Originally Posted by Corrosion View Post
Find an OC who will call for routes that go beyond the marker on 3rd down & will take shots "Into" the endzone while in the redzone. This is really a big deal as a penalty in the endzone puts you at the 1 ..... with a 1st down.

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I think you are misunderstanding my thoughts here.


Im talking about throwing the ball "INTO" the endzone .... Not simply throwing the ball or the average length of route / pass combinations.

Having the target IN THE Endzone gives you a theoretical advantage in that you have either a completion , an incompletion or a penalty with the rules heavily favoring the offensive player. Two of those three possible outcomes are good for the offense ....

They didn't take advantage of that Vs the Ravens and the result is easy to see , settling for three FG's.
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Old 09-25-2013   #10
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Default Re: Percentage of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Can't think of a better place to post this... but I'm rewatching the game right now & Matt Schaub looks sharp with 1:00 left in the first half. He's getting rid of the ball quick, very decisive & very accurate.
Yes, Schaub was very accurate. He hit Daryl Smith in stride on that TD pass. And he meant to throw the ball 6 ft over Andre Johnson's head in the redzone on the opening drive.

A post like this is why I don't know whether to take you seriously, or if you are just trolling. That was a horrible performance by Schaub. Everyone, including Schaub himself, admits that.
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Old 09-25-2013   #11
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Default Re: Percentage of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ

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Yes, Schaub was very accurate. He hit Daryl Smith in stride on that TD pass. And he meant to throw the ball 6 ft over Andre Johnson's head in the redzone on the opening drive.

A post like this is why I don't know whether to take you seriously, or if you are just trolling. That was a horrible performance by Schaub. Everyone, including Schaub himself, admits that.
I specified with less than a minute to go in the half. On that drive, Schaub looked sharp.
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Old 09-25-2013   #12
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Default Re: Percentage of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ

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I specified with less than a minute to go in the half. On that drive, Schaub looked sharp.
I think a lot of that had to do with the Ravens playing a prevent , keeping everything in front of them .... and not putting a whole lot of heat on Schaub in the pocket.

He can do his part in those situations ...
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Old 09-25-2013   #13
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Default Re: Percentage of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
I specified with less than a minute to go in the half. On that drive, Schaub looked sharp.
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I think a lot of that had to do with the Ravens playing a prevent , keeping everything in front of them .... and not putting a whole lot of heat on Schaub in the pocket.

He can do his part in those situations ...
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Old 09-25-2013   #14
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Default Re: Percentage of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ

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I think a lot of that had to do with the Ravens playing a prevent , keeping everything in front of them .... and not putting a whole lot of heat on Schaub in the pocket.

He can do his part in those situations ...
What really impressed me was his accuracy. I read in another thread (& maybe that's where I should have put this, because that's what I really want to discuss) that because of problems with his foot, throwing off his back foot, he's not as accurate as he wants to be & the ball is going places he's not intending.

The 20 yarder he threw to Hop, in that time frame, was practically on a rope.

He looks lighter, healthier..... I'm not going to say more athletic or mobile, but he's looking physically like a younger, better Matt Schaub than what we saw last season.

The only real question about Schaub, is how long can he hold this up?
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Old 09-25-2013   #15
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Default Re: Percentage of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ

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What really impressed me was his accuracy. I read in another thread (& maybe that's where I should have put this, because that's what I really want to discuss) that because of problems with his foot, throwing off his back foot, he's not as accurate as he wants to be & the ball is going places he's not intending.

The 20 yarder he threw to Hop, in that time frame, was practically on a rope.

He looks lighter, healthier..... I'm not going to say more athletic or mobile, but he's looking physically like a younger, better Matt Schaub than what we saw last season.

The only real question about Schaub, is how long can he hold this up?



Schaub never played at any less than 240 at Virginia. At the Combine, 243. With the Texans up to this year ~243. This year at 235.

That weight loss was not aimed at making him more athletic or mobile per se. It is the typical strong recommendation made to any patient with ongoing post Lisfranc problems........in attempt to lessen stresses transferred to the foot.
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Old 09-25-2013   #16
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Default Re: Percentage of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ

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Schaub never played at any less than 240 at Virginia. At the Combine, 243. With the Texans up to this year ~243. This year at 235.

That weight loss was not aimed at making him more athletic or mobile per se. It is the typical strong recommendation made to any patient with ongoing post Lisfranc problems........in attempt to lessen stresses transferred to the foot.
And with weight loss comes a loss of strength .... however fractional it might be , any loss of arm strength or core strength is going to have an effect on a guy who has a questionable arm to begin with. That small difference may be enough to tip the scales in the NFL ....
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Old 09-25-2013   #17
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Default Re: Percentage of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ

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And with weight loss comes a loss of strength .... however fractional it might be , any loss of arm strength or core strength is going to have an effect on a guy who has a questionable arm to begin with. That small difference may be enough to tip the scales in the NFL ....
If y'all are right, his number will be significantly lower than his norm.

If I'm right, he'll hit his numbers like clockwork.

If Dalemurphy is right (& I hope he is) he's going to eclipse his numbers.
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Old 09-25-2013   #18
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Default Re: Percentage of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ

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If y'all are right, his number will be significantly lower than his norm.

If I'm right, he'll hit his numbers like clockwork.

If Dalemurphy is right (& I hope he is) he's going to eclipse his numbers.
If I remember correctly, he got his numbers last year and............
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Old 09-25-2013   #19
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Default Re: Percentage of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ

Numbers schnumbers! Schaub sucks, plain and simple
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Old 09-25-2013   #20
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Default Re: Percentage of Texans TDs thrown into the EZ

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If I remember correctly, he got his numbers last year and............
Exactly.

He looked bad in the final 4-6 games... Is he going to make 10 games this year? or 16? Or 3?

I wouldn't doubt that his foot is an issue, but he had a typical Matt Schaub day against the Patriots, then he went on to stink it up in the Pro Bowl. If his foot is giving him the problems you're suggesting, I don't think he does those. I also think the Texans would have addressed the QB position differently this past offseason.
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