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Old 09-01-2013   #1
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Default After the draft...

So let's say that I had my draft, & I screwed it royally. Didn't get the players I wanted in the first 3 rounds, didn't get one of my top 3 QBs, didn't get any of the top 10 projected receivers.

Surely, not all is lost... right?

Some players are not going to do as well as projected. Some players are going to get hurt. Some players are going to surprise us all.

How do I decide who to cut, who to pick up? How active should I be on the waiver wire; both before the season starts & after? When do I cut bait on a player?
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Old 09-01-2013   #2
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Default Re: After the draft...

1. Look for trends. As an example marc tresmans bears offense is going to pass a lot more then last year. Are you losing points on the bench? Is one of your players getting a steady decline in carries. Identify trends as they happen...not after 2-3 losses.

2. Play matchups. Are you starting a rb vs. the 49ers defense this week? Is that wise?

3. Let your superstars be superstars. Contrary to my suggestion in #2 you should have a couple of good players. I dont play matchups with them. As an example I have Arian Foster and despite all the negativety surrounding him he will start for me until he proves he's a liability. Play superstars but play matchups for your average talent.

4. Stay informed. Information is a commodity. Are you starting players who are suspended/ injured/ on bye weeks? Dont lose games in your league because of juvenile mistakes.

5. Understand your waiver system. Are you better off maintaining your waiver priority over other players in your league? Every year good players get cut because other owners make mistakes. When the bye weeks start some owners will be forced to cut quality players. Are you first in your waiver priority to snatch that player up? 2 years ago in one of my leagues Frank Gore was cut by an impulsive owner because of a false injury report. I picked him up and he was helpful in getting me to the 2nd round of the playoffs.

6. Orchestrate a trade! There are usually a handful of naive owners in every league. Their loss is your gain. You might be surprised at what you can get if you just try.

7. Talent and opportunity normally equal production. Mark Ingram hasn't done much yet because he doesn't get many opportunities. Jonathan Stewart is a fantastic talent but he has to share opportunities. Those types aren't going to help you much if your stuck with a bad roster. I'm a fan of the nfl draft and because of it i'm a bit more informed on the newest nfl talent (over the guys in my league.) A couple of years back in their rookie seasons my last 2 picks in a 17 round draft were aj green and julio jones. Both guys had great rookie seasons because they had talent and opportunity. At the time people actually criticized me for those picks. Looks pretty damn smart now doesn't it?

8. You cant control how many points your opponent scores against you. Your really not competing against him so much anyway. Your competing with your roster and the talent you have available. If I lose, I lose, but I dont want to leave points on the bench.

I cant tell you when to cut bait on a player because my success/failure rate is about 50/50.Quite often a season opening roster and season ending roster look drastically different so a bad draft is not the end of the world. I hope some of my suggestions are helpful. Good luck.
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Old 09-01-2013   #3
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Default Re: After the draft...

For me in an 8 team league the first week of free agent add/drops is so important I don't mind losing my first game to get first in line for pickups.

First 2 weeks can make your season if you target the right players. Alfred Morris was not drafted in a lot of smaller leagues last year. He ended up being the #4 running back in our scoring system.
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Old 09-01-2013   #4
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Default Re: After the draft...

Quote:
Originally Posted by powda View Post
1. Look for trends. As an example marc tresmans bears offense is going to pass a lot more then last year. Are you losing points on the bench? Is one of your players getting a steady decline in carries. Identify trends as they happen...not after 2-3 losses.

2. Play matchups. Are you starting a rb vs. the 49ers defense this week? Is that wise?

3. Let your superstars be superstars. Contrary to my suggestion in #2 you should have a couple of good players. I dont play matchups with them. As an example I have Arian Foster and despite all the negativety surrounding him he will start for me until he proves he's a liability. Play superstars but play matchups for your average talent.

4. Stay informed. Information is a commodity. Are you starting players who are suspended/ injured/ on bye weeks? Dont lose games in your league because of juvenile mistakes.

5. Understand your waiver system. Are you better off maintaining your waiver priority over other players in your league? Every year good players get cut because other owners make mistakes. When the bye weeks start some owners will be forced to cut quality players. Are you first in your waiver priority to snatch that player up? 2 years ago in one of my leagues Frank Gore was cut by an impulsive owner because of a false injury report. I picked him up and he was helpful in getting me to the 2nd round of the playoffs.

6. Orchestrate a trade! There are usually a handful of naive owners in every league. Their loss is your gain. You might be surprised at what you can get if you just try.

7. Talent and opportunity normally equal production. Mark Ingram hasn't done much yet because he doesn't get many opportunities. Jonathan Stewart is a fantastic talent but he has to share opportunities. Those types aren't going to help you much if your stuck with a bad roster. I'm a fan of the nfl draft and because of it i'm a bit more informed on the newest nfl talent (over the guys in my league.) A couple of years back in their rookie seasons my last 2 picks in a 17 round draft were aj green and julio jones. Both guys had great rookie seasons because they had talent and opportunity. At the time people actually criticized me for those picks. Looks pretty damn smart now doesn't it?

8. You cant control how many points your opponent scores against you. Your really not competing against him so much anyway. Your competing with your roster and the talent you have available. If I lose, I lose, but I dont want to leave points on the bench.

I cant tell you when to cut bait on a player because my success/failure rate is about 50/50.Quite often a season opening roster and season ending roster look drastically different so a bad draft is not the end of the world. I hope some of my suggestions are helpful. Good luck.
Great advice.

For me #1 is always the hardest.

A bad draft isn't the end of the world. However it does mean that you will have to study rosters harder for possible trades. You will also have to take more chances.

Example: Reggie Bush should have a really good yr. Say you've got Julio Jones/Garcon/AJ on you're roster, are you willing to take a chance and trade AJ for Bush. You may be willing to trade Garcon on the chance that Eddie Lacy becomes a stud.

You will need to take these chances now because a few games into the season it will be too late.

Hope everything works out for you.
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Old 09-01-2013   #5
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Default Re: After the draft...

Tk is this the roster your concerned about? (Quote from the rate my draft thread.) Is it a ppr league? What's your scoring/waiver system look like?


Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex, 1 K, 1 Def

I picked 8th in a snake draft. I don't remember exactly when I picked up the guys I did, but I ended up with

[ x ] Tony Romo - DAL

[ x ] C.J. Spiller - BUF
[ x ] Reggie Bush - DET
[ x ] Frank Gore - SF
[ x ] Mark Ingram - NO
[ x ] Rashard Mendenhall - ARI
[ x ] Ronnie Hillman - DEN

[ x ] Torrey Smith - BAL
[ x ] Antonio Brown - PIT
[ x ] Donnie Avery - KC
[ x ] Mike Wallace - MIA
[ x ] Tavon Austin - STL
[ x ] Kendall Wright - TEN
[ x ] Nick Toon - NO

[ x ] Justin Tucker - BAL

[ x ] Cincinnati Bengals - CIN
I know I was a bit biased against Romo in the other thread. I dont like him as a real life qb but for fantasy purposes he does post good stats.

On this roster my starters would be:

Qb Romo
Rb Spiller
Wr1 Wallace
Wr2 (Brown if ppr, Smith if non ppr)
Flex1 Bush
Flex2 Gore

Rbs: between mendy, ingram, and hillman one of them should emerge. My money would be on mendy to perform better then expected. Your talent here isn't great but it's not alarming either. All 3 have a questionable background but they also have potential.

Wrs: Wallace is a legit talent. Miami doesn't have a lot of bonafide options offensively. You should be ok here. He may not get more then 70 receptions for you but he is a playmaker and might just get you 10 td's. Antonio Brown and Torrey Smith are both unspectacular talents from a fantasy standpoint. Probably bottom end #2's. The good news is Wallace is in Miami and the steelers don't have a proven running game. Antonio will be their go to guy now. His numbers will be better then last year. Smith is a lot like Wallace in that he's a playmaker. You probably will not get a lot of receptions but he has fantastic td potential. You may get some goose eggs from him but when he goes off you'll be glad you were patient. Both brown and smith are young players who should be moving up (nearing their prime/potential) rather than down. As for the rest of your wr core I really like wright and austin because of their potential and playmaking ability. If you wait on both of them they might pay off big.

Toon and Avery are people i'd look to upgrade as is your kicker.

Cincy's defense should be solid. You've got a Zimmerman defense and 6 games in the north against unimpressive offenses (though there is rice and richardson.) In '12 they had the #8 scoring defense and i'd expect roughly the same this year. Not sure if the cats will use geo bernard as a return man but if they do you might just get a spike in special team scores.

Sifting through your players from a bye week pov you look to have trouble most in week 9. Reggie Bush, Frank Gore, Mendenhal, and Hillman all have a week 9 bye so plan for that if you can with some rb waiver additions before then...
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Old 09-01-2013   #6
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Default Re: After the draft...

Quote:
Originally Posted by powda View Post
Tk is this the roster your concerned about? (Quote from the rate my draft thread.) Is it a ppr league? What's your scoring/waiver system look like?

My scoring system is in that thread.. or in the FF First Round Strategy thread.
Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Passing Tds 3 points, 14 points for 4, 5 thereafter
Passing yards .1 every 2 yards, +3 for 300 yards
2 points for 2 point conversions

Rushing Tds 6 points, +2 if more than 50 yards,
Rushing yards .1 each, +3 for 150
Rushing attempts 3 for every 25
2 points for 2 point conversions

Receiving Tds 6 points, +2 if more than 50 yards,
Receiving yards .1 each, +3 for 120
Receptions +1 for 7, +1 thereafter
2 points for 2 point conversions
I appreciate the indepth review of my draft, but this thread wasn't just for me. I'm sure your first post helped a lot of people.

Nick Toon was my final pick. I've got a feeling about him & most likely won't let him go anytime soon. I want to see how things play out, but with Drew Brees throwing him the ball... who knows. Gotta see how things play out.

I could have & probably should have added a second kicker, QB, def, etc... but I decided to go with longshots....... Avery in Reed's system. But this "method" means I'm going to be active on the waiver wire.
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Old 09-01-2013   #7
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Default Re: After the draft...

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post

I could have & probably should have added a second kicker, QB, def, etc... but I decided to go with longshots.......
I would never draft 2 kickers or D/ST.
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Old 09-01-2013   #8
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Default Re: After the draft...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Heath Shuler View Post
I would never draft 2 kickers or D/ST.
Yup. Ive never drafted a 2nd qb, te, or kicker. Defensively i've always played 3 idp and those guys are a dime a dozen. I kinda appraise the talent gap between starters and backups at relative positions. The difference between the 16th best qb and 25th best qb is marginal and I dont worry about it till the bye week (of my qb). If my starting qb goes down it is what it is. My limited (6) bench spots are for loading up on rbs and wrs who have a chance to become superstars. Nothings fool proof and I haven't been snake bit yet because of it but so far it's worked for me. If you play in a keeper league this method should be mandatory. (Sure there are always exceptions and guys like cam, kaper, and wilson come to mind...)
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Old 09-01-2013   #9
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Default Re: After the draft...

The never draft 2 defenses rules should be taken with a grain of salt. It depends on your leagues scoring for defense and the size of the league. If it's a small league (8 or 10), generally yeah, don't draft 2 defenses. You can play the match up game in those leagues fairly easily.

12 team leagues depend on the scoring for defense. In standard scoring you can pretty much still do a 1 defense matchup mix all season long. In some custom leagues though defenses can get penalized heavily for allowing alot of points/yards, and if they don't get return yards added to them it doesn't create that buffer that allows a bad defense to stay on par with the good ones, on the flip side in those leagues defenses that hold opponents to few yards/points get monster points (Bears had a 60 point game in our league last season, good defensive outing usually net 25-30+, average teams 10-20, bad teams -5 to 10). In these leagues it is smart to try to land 2 defenses, it doesn't have to necessarily be an early reach for defenses, just two "draftable" defenses that you can play match-ups with between them.

The thing you have to remember about trying to play matchups against the weak offensive teams is this. The Strong defensive teams play the bad teams too, If your league has a lot of owners (14 and 16ers for example) or puts an emphasis on defensive scoring, it could be slim pickings when trying to play the waiver wire for a defense each weak. There have been times I've been stuck with a mediocre defense playing a good team because none of the defenses playing bad teams have been available.

Brief Summary:
Low owner count and/or standard scoring = 1 Defense/playing waiver wire good
High owner count and/or defensively favored scoring = 1 Defense/playing waiver wire bad to potentially catastrophic.
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Old 09-01-2013   #10
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Default Re: After the draft...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brandon420tx View Post
The never draft 2 defenses rules should be taken with a grain of salt. It depends on your leagues scoring for defense and the size of the league. If it's a small league (8 or 10), generally yeah, don't draft 2 defenses. You can play the match up game in those leagues fairly easily.

12 team leagues depend on the scoring for defense. In standard scoring you can pretty much still do a 1 defense matchup mix all season long. In some custom leagues though defenses can get penalized heavily for allowing alot of points/yards, and if they don't get return yards added to them it doesn't create that buffer that allows a bad defense to stay on par with the good ones, on the flip side in those leagues defenses that hold opponents to few yards/points get monster points (Bears had a 60 point game in our league last season, good defensive outing usually net 25-30+, average teams 10-20, bad teams -5 to 10). In these leagues it is smart to try to land 2 defenses, it doesn't have to necessarily be an early reach for defenses, just two "draftable" defenses that you can play match-ups with between them.

The thing you have to remember about trying to play matchups against the weak offensive teams is this. The Strong defensive teams play the bad teams too, If your league has a lot of owners (14 and 16ers for example) or puts an emphasis on defensive scoring, it could be slim pickings when trying to play the waiver wire for a defense each weak. There have been times I've been stuck with a mediocre defense playing a good team because none of the defenses playing bad teams have been available.

Brief Summary:
Low owner count and/or standard scoring = 1 Defense/playing waiver wire good
High owner count and/or defensively favored scoring = 1 Defense/playing waiver wire bad to potentially catastrophic.
Maybe you guys can clarify something for me as all i've ever done was idp. Do you have the option to play/not play a defense on any given week? A buddy of mine has the option not to play a defense and not playing it meant he got zero points. Trouble was, if he did play a defense he had a chance to get negative points. I had him go thru 3 seasons of fantasy football weekly totals and maybe 70% of the time it actually hurt him to use a defense. If that's standard scoring and you can't get one of the top defenses why bother--and why bother soaking up a bench spot with a 2nd defense? Can you guys enlighten me?
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Old 09-02-2013   #11
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Default Re: After the draft...

Quote:
Originally Posted by powda View Post
Yup. Ive never drafted a 2nd qb, te, or kicker.
What kind of thought goes into picking a kicker?

I know there are some guys who will get opportunities to kick 50+ yarders, & some that won't. Good offenses will most likely score 6 instead of three, but a bad offense will rarely cross midfield.
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Old 09-02-2013   #12
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Default Re: After the draft...

Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
What kind of thought goes into picking a kicker?

I know there are some guys who will get opportunities to kick 50+ yarders, & some that won't. Good offenses will most likely score 6 instead of three, but a bad offense will rarely cross midfield.
I was referencing Heath's post. Doesn't make sense to me either. I know a guy who in the last 2 years has drafted janakowski in the 1st and 2nd round. Needless to say he never does well in ff.

All i've ever done as far as evaluating kickers is looked for ones on the best offense. If I find 2 comparable kickers I look at their accuracy. If they still look comparable I opt for the guy in the dome.
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Old 09-02-2013   #13
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Default Re: After the draft...

The team I draft is rarely the team I end up with and I usually do pretty well.

Every year, there are players who get hot and get cold. Part of the game for me is seeing those guys and jumping on the hot ones before anyone else gets ahold of them and dumping the cold ones asap.

I remember one year when Drew Brees was at San Diego and they drafted Philip Rivers, no one drafted Drew Brees. He was a lame-duck. But then he put a good game or two together and I snatched him up and rode him and Domanick Davis right to the Championship.

Sometimes, I'll pick up a FA just for one week because of a matchup.

So, to me, it doesn't really matter too much about who you draft, it's all about who you pick up during the season.
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Old 09-02-2013   #14
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Default Re: After the draft...

Quote:
Originally Posted by powda View Post
Maybe you guys can clarify something for me as all i've ever done was idp. Do you have the option to play/not play a defense on any given week? A buddy of mine has the option not to play a defense and not playing it meant he got zero points. Trouble was, if he did play a defense he had a chance to get negative points. I had him go thru 3 seasons of fantasy football weekly totals and maybe 70% of the time it actually hurt him to use a defense. If that's standard scoring and you can't get one of the top defenses why bother--and why bother soaking up a bench spot with a 2nd defense? Can you guys enlighten me?
You do have the option not to play a defense. However you usually get at least 3-5 points even on bad days if the team can get a few sacks and stuff. Even in the heavily penalized leagues negative scores happen only occassionaly (I'd say around 10-15 a season, only a few of those are actually started that week). Something is usually better than nothing. Having 1 good DEF, and one throwaway add/drop matchup defense is probably the best way to go honestly. My at work league games come down to the wire and every single point helps
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Old 09-02-2013   #15
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Default Re: After the draft...

Quote:
Originally Posted by powda View Post
1. Look for trends. As an example marc tresmans bears offense is going to pass a lot more then last year. Are you losing points on the bench? Is one of your players getting a steady decline in carries. Identify trends as they happen...not after 2-3 losses.

2. Play matchups. Are you starting a rb vs. the 49ers defense this week? Is that wise?

3. Let your superstars be superstars. Contrary to my suggestion in #2 you should have a couple of good players. I dont play matchups with them. As an example I have Arian Foster and despite all the negativety surrounding him he will start for me until he proves he's a liability. Play superstars but play matchups for your average talent.

4. Stay informed. Information is a commodity. Are you starting players who are suspended/ injured/ on bye weeks? Dont lose games in your league because of juvenile mistakes.

5. Understand your waiver system. Are you better off maintaining your waiver priority over other players in your league? Every year good players get cut because other owners make mistakes. When the bye weeks start some owners will be forced to cut quality players. Are you first in your waiver priority to snatch that player up? 2 years ago in one of my leagues Frank Gore was cut by an impulsive owner because of a false injury report. I picked him up and he was helpful in getting me to the 2nd round of the playoffs.

6. Orchestrate a trade! There are usually a handful of naive owners in every league. Their loss is your gain. You might be surprised at what you can get if you just try.

7. Talent and opportunity normally equal production. Mark Ingram hasn't done much yet because he doesn't get many opportunities. Jonathan Stewart is a fantastic talent but he has to share opportunities. Those types aren't going to help you much if your stuck with a bad roster. I'm a fan of the nfl draft and because of it i'm a bit more informed on the newest nfl talent (over the guys in my league.) A couple of years back in their rookie seasons my last 2 picks in a 17 round draft were aj green and julio jones. Both guys had great rookie seasons because they had talent and opportunity. At the time people actually criticized me for those picks. Looks pretty damn smart now doesn't it?

8. You cant control how many points your opponent scores against you. Your really not competing against him so much anyway. Your competing with your roster and the talent you have available. If I lose, I lose, but I dont want to leave points on the bench.

I cant tell you when to cut bait on a player because my success/failure rate is about 50/50.Quite often a season opening roster and season ending roster look drastically different so a bad draft is not the end of the world. I hope some of my suggestions are helpful. Good luck.
Between this post and the current one below you pretty much have my fantasy football manifesto. If you see something disagreeable I encourage you to correct a flawed method I might have...

---------------------------------

I take note of why and how certain owners do well every year. If you look at your league history over the years you'll find a core group of owners always make the playoffs. Your season goals imo should be:

A. Aquire the best talent possible.
B. Manage that talent in the best possible fashion.
C. Make the playoffs.

Once your in the playoffs anything can happen. The law of averages stops working in your favor. Winner take all.

Here's what you can control

Your draft
Waiver priority (sometimes)
Waiver acquisitions (sometimes)
Roster management (bye week management, depth, cuts, etc..)
What you know -(information is a priority. Owners who do the most research USUALLY get the best results. Information plays into all of the above factors as well. Don't be the last person in your league to know your qb is out for the season.)

What you can't control:

Injuries: (my draft last year was fantastic and every one in my league complimented me on having the strongest draft. 6 weeks into the season my draft didnt mean **** because of injuries. By seasons end my starters missed a total of 36 games. It was so bad I changed my team name to "mash". Having good depth was something I could control, but ultimately it just wasnt enough to overcome my injuries.)

Schedule: in a 12 team league you play every owner at least once. Sometimes you play good owners twice, sometimes you play bad owners twice. It is what it is and there's nothing you can do about it.

Points scored against you: A guy I play in a league with always fields a good team and always does his research (probably more then the rest of us.) However, last year he was snake bit. It seemed everyone had career games against him. He scored a lot of points himself and overall his team had the 3rd highest point total. It just wasn't enough when opposing teams scored the highest point total against him by a margin of several HUNDRED points.

---------------------------------------

In addition to what you can and can't control I want to throw an abstract concept out there for you guys and see if you give it any credence...

In one of my leagues the champion over the last 2 years is the same owner. He has solid drafts like others, he makes solid waiver additions like others, he doesn't make mistakes like others, and he capitalizes on the mistakes of other owners like others. He's been fortunate not to be snake bit by injuries/schedule/points scored against him. I'd almost argue his timing is better then others. Perhaps he was identifying trends faster then others?

As an example, Greg jennings was on my team last year and ofcourse he got injured (mash remember?) I then had a need for new talent and picked up James Jones. For 2 weeks jones did nothing and contributed to a close season loss I had. I was now in a bind, bye weeks and roster depth due to injuries were about to kill me at the wr position and I had to cut bait on unproductive talent to get something better then goose eggs. I cut james jones in favor of someone else. Jones was picked up by the 2 time champ and starting that week he went off to score 14 total season td's. What the f*ck? I identified talent that eventually paid off, for someone else. My timing sucked and the champ's was spot on. How do you fix that? You could make a reasonable argument that poor depth or roster management on my part contributed to the problem and i'd agree. But his timing is on far more then the percentages suggest it should be. Is it dumb luck or skill?

All in all my opinions are my own and I have no more credibility in fantasy football then anyone else. I hope if you agree or disagree with this post and others in this thread you'll give some feedback. I dont mind being corrected or wrong if it means I learn something new or if it means I kick the 2 time champs azz. Good luck all and I appreciate any response.
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Old 09-02-2013   #16
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Maybe you guys can clarify something for me as all i've ever done was idp. Do you have the option to play/not play a defense on any given week? A buddy of mine has the option not to play a defense and not playing it meant he got zero points. Trouble was, if he did play a defense he had a chance to get negative points. I had him go thru 3 seasons of fantasy football weekly totals and maybe 70% of the time it actually hurt him to use a defense. If that's standard scoring and you can't get one of the top defenses why bother--and why bother soaking up a bench spot with a 2nd defense? Can you guys enlighten me?
Your friends league must have a very unusual scoring system for D/ST. That is definitely not the norm. Usually a D/ST will get around 6 points for kick/punt return TDs, 6 points for defensive scores (fumble recovery/ pick 6), a couple points for INTS & safeties, a point for sacks and maybe bonus points for shutouts.
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Old 09-02-2013   #17
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All i've ever done as far as evaluating kickers is looked for ones on the best offense. If I find 2 comparable kickers I look at their accuracy. If they still look comparable I opt for the guy in the dome.
also if there is a tie between kickers in my mind I go with the one with the later bye week.
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