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Old 08-22-2013   #501
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Default Re: Case Keenum grabs early edge in Texans backup QB

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Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
One thing to take into consideration is that the draft used to be a LOT longer. In 1973, the draft was 17 rounds long. And guys in the 17th round actually made teams and played on them. All these UDFA's would have been drafted if there were more rounds.
Also, Im not sure how true that assertion is to begin with, especially for QBs who are probably the most heavily scouted position in pro sports.

The league has one UDFA starting, and only two more from the last four rounds.
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Old 08-22-2013   #502
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Default Re: Case Keenum grabs early edge in Texans backup QB

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There's also a growing number of UDFA's excelling in the NFL while highly drafted players are proving to be busts.
My comments do not contradict this one bit.

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Case Keenum has shown a very high NFL IQ and an ability to learn and be coached up.
& that has more to do with his future in the NFL than any success he's had at the collegiate level.


Truth be told, I'm wondering why more UDFA QBs don't have success in the NFL. If it is important for a QB to sit for a year or two, learn a system & get acclimated to the NFL, we should see more of these guys to offset the 1st & 2nd rounders who get drafted & pressed into service early.
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Old 08-22-2013   #503
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Default Re: Case Keenum grabs early edge in Texans backup QB

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Truth be told, I'm wondering why more UDFA QBs don't have success in the NFL. If it is important for a QB to sit for a year or two, learn a system & get acclimated to the NFL, we should see more of these guys to offset the 1st & 2nd rounders who get drafted & pressed into service early.
Because, by and large, early round picks are more talented than UDFAs. A rushed elite talent will always be better than a scrub who gets years to learn the system.
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Old 08-22-2013   #504
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Default Re: Case Keenum grabs early edge in Texans backup QB

The # of quality QBs is the deepest its probably ever been in the history of the NFL (just look at last year's class.. which Keenum is also part of). As more college spread & zone read concepts make their way into the NFL and with the way rules now favor offenses, it's going to be easier and easier for these kids to make a impact from day one and have succes in the league.
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Old 08-22-2013   #505
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Default Re: Case Keenum grabs early edge in Texans backup QB

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFw3ZNZQQ4M

I'll take this 'weak arm' any day of the week ... not to mention everything else he brings to the table ...
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Old 08-22-2013   #506
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Default Re: Case Keenum grabs early edge in Texans backup QB

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Because, by and large, early round picks are more talented than UDFAs. A rushed elite talent will always be better than a scrub who gets years to learn the system.
Only if you accept the assumption that the scouting is done properly. Plenty of elite talent has fallen through the cracks. Foster is a perfect example. He's one of the three or four best RBs in the NFL (2nd, in my book), but he wasn't drafted for reasons that were not related to talent.

We'll see how it pans out for Keenum, but the talent evaluation on him was wrong, and continues to be wrong. His arm is just fine, he has more athleticism than many starting QBs, and he definitely has the drive, work ethic, and mental capacity for the position. The only real question was/is experience. He played in a weird system at UH, didn't take snaps under center, and didn't face NFL style defenses. So it's fair to question if he can conquer those challenges. I think he can, but we'll see. But I think any question of his talent is off base. He may not be as talented as guys like Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers, but he's more athletic than Schaub. His arm is at least as good as Schaub's. His mobility in the pocket is better than average.

I don't see the knock on talent. Unless you count height as talent, and even then, it's not like he's getting balls batted down or missing reads.
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Old 08-22-2013   #507
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Default Re: Case Keenum grabs early edge in Texans backup QB

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Only if you accept the assumption that the scouting is done properly. Plenty of elite talent has fallen through the cracks. Foster is a perfect example. He's one of the three or four best RBs in the NFL (2nd, in my book), but he wasn't drafted for reasons that were not related to talent.
Hence the "by and large" part of my post. Generally speaking, those drafted in the first are more talented than those drafted in the second, who are in turn more talented than those taken in the 3rd, etc. Certainly scouting is not perfect- there are too many variables. Take a random UDFA QB out of a list and a random 1st round QB, and see which one you want. Odds are, it will be the 1st rounder.
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Old 08-22-2013   #508
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Default Re: Case Keenum grabs early edge in Texans backup QB

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Originally Posted by maddogmrb View Post
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFw3ZNZQQ4M

I'll take this 'weak arm' any day of the week ... not to mention everything else he brings to the table ...
Weak arm Keenum:

http://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=r...&v=AaltTgbUxV0
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Old 08-22-2013   #509
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Default Re: Case Keenum grabs early edge in Texans backup QB

Weak arm with a wet ball:

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xVlMNrH...eature=related

Notice how fart the kick returner was?
That's Carrier, and he's not even the fastest receiver on the team.
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Old 08-22-2013   #510
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Default Re: Case Keenum grabs early edge in Texans backup QB

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
Weak arm with a wet ball:

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xVlMNrH...eature=related

Notice how fart the kick returner was?
That's Carrier, and he's not even the fastest receiver on the team.
If the KR was farting around it might have been Jacoby Jones. just saying...
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Old 08-22-2013   #511
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Default Re: Case Keenum grabs early edge in Texans backup QB

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I kind of like the idea of eliminating the draft. Give the teams their rookie pools (the bad teams get more money), and let them negotiate with the players on an individual basis. If a team wanted to throw their entire pool at a Luck or RG3, OK. That means they're worth that $$$. You couldn't televise it, but it would place an emphasis on money management and talent identification.

BTW, Deacon Jones (186th overall) and Bart Starr (200th overall) would have been drafted in the current draft system (256 picks). What you have to remember is that there were fewer teams (12-14) in the NFL in the 50's and 60's, so the rounds were much shorter.
Excellent point. I was just looking at the number of rounds, not the number of picks.
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Old 08-22-2013   #512
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Default Re: Case Keenum grabs early edge in Texans backup QB

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Excellent point. I was just looking at the number of rounds, not the number of picks.
Yeah, but the pool of talent is much bigger now with many more football programs and a growing population. More kids are being developed at an early age with better techniques by more qualified coaches.
Technology has made game film more readily available in higher quality making it feasible to study more players in the same amount of time.
Road and transportation is better allowing easier access to all areas.

Compare with twenty years ago, for example, there might be twice the number of draftable players.

The tendency of keeping drafted players by coaches over UDFAs are slowly changing.

Last year, opening day rosters included 412 former UDFAs vs. 277 former first rounders.
412 is a number larger than the combined total of 5th, 6th, and 7th rounders.
Every team in the league, except one, had at least one UDFA starter on its squad.

http://www.syracuse.com/orangefootba...ack_chiba.html
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Old 08-22-2013   #513
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Default Re: Case Keenum grabs early edge in Texans backup QB

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Originally Posted by rmartin65 View Post
Hence the "by and large" part of my post. Generally speaking, those drafted in the first are more talented than those drafted in the second, who are in turn more talented than those taken in the 3rd, etc. Certainly scouting is not perfect- there are too many variables. Take a random UDFA QB out of a list and a random 1st round QB, and see which one you want. Odds are, it will be the 1st rounder.
Interestingly, according to the same article above, there were 2 more 4th rounders than 3rd rounders in the NFL.

Also, there were many more 7th rounders than 6th rounders.
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Old 08-22-2013   #514
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Default Re: Case Keenum grabs early edge in Texans backup QB

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Interestingly, according to the same article above, there were 2 more 4th rounders than 3rd rounders in the NFL.

Also, there were many more 7th rounders than 6th rounders.
Can the amount of compensatory picks in each round account for the difference?

Look guys, I am not saying that just because Player X was taken higher than Player Y, Player X is better than Player Y. I am just saying that, generally speaking, the more talented players are drafted higher than the less talented players. Its the reason for the draft- to give the worst teams the first crack at the best talent.
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Old 08-22-2013   #515
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Default Re: Case Keenum grabs early edge in Texans backup QB

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Can the amount of compensatory picks in each round account for the difference?

Look guys, I am not saying that just because Player X was taken higher than Player Y, Player X is better than Player Y. I am just saying that, generally speaking, the more talented players are drafted higher than the less talented players. Its the reason for the draft- to give the worst teams the first crack at the best talent.
It looks to be the case for the top two rounds, but it seems to be more of a scrapshoot otherwise.

It's really hard to know for sure (regarding players outside the first two rounds) because the higher a player is picked, the more teams have been willing to give them more opportunities to play.
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Old 08-22-2013   #516
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Default Re: Case Keenum grabs early edge in Texans backup QB

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Can the amount of compensatory picks in each round account for the difference?

Look guys, I am not saying that just because Player X was taken higher than Player Y, Player X is better than Player Y. I am just saying that, generally speaking, the more talented players are drafted higher than the less talented players. Its the reason for the draft- to give the worst teams the first crack at the best talent.
And even then they don't get it right. Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Charles Rodgers, J.P Losman was taken in the 1st in the same draft Schaub was taken in the 3rd, Troy Williamson (who?) 7th overall, JaMarcus Russell, Amobi Okoye, Mark Buttfumble (5th overall), and on and on and on.

Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown and Beanie Wells were the RBs taken in the 1st round of the draft Arian Foster was not drafted. Glen Coffee, Gartrell Johnson, Frank Summers, Aaron Brown, James Davis and Fui Vakapuna were RBs taken in that draft instead of Foster.

There's no science to this. Yeah, you're chances of hitting on a player may be better with a 1st rounder, but a 1st rounder can bomb just as easily as a UDFA makes it no matter what the scouts say, what info you have or anything. You don't know 'til you get on the field and play with the big boys, the pros, the best.
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Old 08-22-2013   #517
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Default Re: Case Keenum grabs early edge in Texans backup QB

People are letting their desire to prop a UDFA let them stretch to some pretty silly statements.

Case's play so far has been good enough he doesn't need that kind of support.
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Old 08-22-2013   #518
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Default Re: Case Keenum grabs early edge in Texans backup QB

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Originally Posted by rmartin65 View Post
Can the amount of compensatory picks in each round account for the difference?

Look guys, I am not saying that just because Player X was taken higher than Player Y, Player X is better than Player Y. I am just saying that, generally speaking, the more talented players are drafted higher than the less talented players. Its the reason for the draft- to give the worst teams the first crack at the best talent.
I was going through the NFL rosters from A to I, and even I was surprised at the number of starters on all these teams.

You figure with 22 starting spots on each team, one should find just one or maybe two UDFA starters, but nope. Teams have two, three, and even four of them. Many of them have been long-time starters; some have turned in good season(s) recently. I was surprised at many of the names as they are really good players or budding young talents.

Interestingly, the Browns were the team that had no UDFA as starter.
Coincidence???
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Old 08-22-2013   #519
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Default Re: Case Keenum grabs early edge in Texans backup QB

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Originally Posted by Speedy View Post
There's no science to this. Yeah, you're chances of hitting on a player may be better with a 1st rounder, but a 1st rounder can bomb just as easily as a UDFA makes it no matter what the scouts say, what info you have or anything. You don't know 'til you get on the field and play with the big boys, the pros, the best.

Show me where I have refuted this. Again, I ask you- would you rather make a blind pick out of all the first round QBs of the last 10 years, or a blind pick of all the UDFA QBs who have gotten a chance in an NFL training camp over the same time period?

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I was going through the NFL rosters from A to I, and even I was surprised at the number of starters on all these teams.

You figure with 22 starting spots on each team, one should find just one or maybe two UDFA starters, but nope. Teams have two, three, and even four of them. Many of them have been long-time starters; some have turned in good season(s) recently. I was surprised at many of the names as they are really good players or budding young talents.

Interestingly, the Browns were the team that had no UDFA as starter.
Coincidence???
Yes, I am going to say coincidence. There is no reason why the lack of a UDFA starter would be the reason why the Browns suck. You guys are getting ridiculous in your attempts to defend Keenum. Keenum's play is defending him, not some silly-ass half-cocked circumstantial arguments.
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Old 08-22-2013   #520
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Default Re: Case Keenum grabs early edge in Texans backup QB

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Yes, I am going to say coincidence. There is no reason why the lack of a UDFA starter would be the reason why the Browns suck. You guys are getting ridiculous in your attempts to defend Keenum. Keenum's play is defending him, not some silly-ass half-cocked circumstantial arguments.
Nowhere in my posts about the number of UDFAs on NFL rosters has anything to do with "defending" Keenum.

You know me better than that.
I prefer to let the play on the field speak for itself.

We were discussing about talents and the drafts.

I just completed the whole list of all 32 teams, and I found it interesting that there are so many starters on them.

The highest number is the Pats with six;
There were 2 teams with five.
It averages out to about 3 per team.
That was much more than I thought.
And more than half of these guys are actually very good players with a few great ones at their position.
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