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View Poll Results: Who wins division?
Houston Texans 129 88.36%
Indy Colts 14 9.59%
Nashville Titans 0 0%
Jacksonville Jaguars 3 2.05%
Voters: 146. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-31-2013   #61
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Default Re: Who wins division?

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
So in a bad year, Schaub was still better than Luck?

I stand corrected.
those stats are pointless...........Unless Schaub increases his pedestrian TD:INT ratio, yards and completion percentage is a waste. We will win the division though.
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Old 07-31-2013   #62
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Default Re: Who wins division?

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Originally Posted by amazing80 View Post
those stats are pointless...........Unless Schaub increases his pedestrian TD:INT ratio, yards and completion percentage is a waste. We will win the division though.
Schaub's ratio is almost 2 to 1. There are only a handful with substantially higher - Manning, Rogers & Big Ben. In addition the Texans go for lots of rushing TDs.
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Old 08-14-2013   #63
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Default Re: Who wins division?

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Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
I went through the records and here's what I came up with...

In the past 10 years, there's been no team that went 11-5 with a negative point differential. The best record you can find with a winning record and a negative point differential is 9-7.

2004 Jags -- 9-7 to 12-4
2004 Seahawks -- 9-7 to 13-3
2005 Vikings -- 9-7 to 6-10
2006 Seahawks -- 9-7 to 10-6
2008 Cowboys -- 9-7 to 11-5
2011 Giants -- 9-7 to 9-7

As you can see, there is one case where the record got worse and one case where the record remained the same but 4 cases where the record improved.

BUT. That's starting from 9-7.

BUT! Why did the Colts have such a bad point differential? Because they got CRUSHED by the Patriots, Jets and Bears... mostly the Patriots.

See I knew I misquoted it, but my train of thought was slowly picking up steam. Here is the article from grantland.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...-worthy-record



Quote:
That gap between their actual win total and the win total we would expect from their Pythagorean expectation — 3.8 wins — is enormous. It's the second-largest difference since 1989, with the largest difference coming from another version of this team. The 1992 Colts went 9-7 while being outscored by 86 points, producing a Pythagorean expectation of 5.0 wins and a difference of four full wins. The next year, they went 4-12. The 2013 Colts won't be that bad.


It's true that teams who greatly outstrip their Pythagorean expectation often decline the following season. There are only six other teams since 1989 that were more than three wins better than their Pythagorean expectation, and they declined by a combined 22 wins the following season, nearly four per team. If we expand the sample out to teams that were two wins better than their Pythagorean expectation, we get 33 teams, of which 21 declined and seven stagnated. In all, those 33 teams declined by an average of 2.4 wins the following year.
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Old 08-14-2013   #64
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Default Re: Who wins division?

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Originally Posted by NastyNate View Post

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...-worthy-record
Quote:
It's true that teams who greatly outstrip their Pythagorean expectation often decline the following season. There are only six other teams since 1989 that were more than three wins better than their Pythagorean expectation, and they declined by a combined 22 wins the following season, nearly four per team.
But how many of those teams had to play Blaine Gabbert & Jake Locker 4 times a year? Heck, they open the season at home versus Oakland & Miami. Then they've still got games against St Louis, Arizona, San Diego, & Kansas City..... That's 10 games they are probably the favorites to win. At the very least, they're pushes.

Point being we better be on our Ps & Qs this year, it'll probably take 11 to 12 games to win the division again.
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Old 08-14-2013   #65
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Default Re: Who wins division?

That was a cool read.

I think the Colts were a bit of an outlier from that perspective.

I think the Colts were a good team that tanked (perhaps on purpose.) So they weren't as bad as that 2-14 mark would indicate so their rebound to 11-5 wasn't as drastic as it appears on the surface.

And like I said, when you look at the point differential, most of that comes from a single game. So the size of that point differential appears to be a bit of an anomaly as well.

The point about their record in close games probably returning to the mean is good, though. So they probably will regress a little bit. Hopefully.
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Old 08-14-2013   #66
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Default Re: Who wins division?

Unfortunately, I think the titans will be better this season. I still think we should win the division, but I do see them doing better. The only thing holding them back is the QB position. Their D might be a bit unproven, but they got better along the trenches.

I can't put the FA acquisitions of the Colts together. I'm no GM, but their FA signings were strange.

The Jags should have a decent D again, but their O will still suck
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Old 08-14-2013   #67
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Default Re: Who wins division?

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
That was a cool read.

I think the Colts were a bit of an outlier from that perspective.

I think the Colts were a good team that tanked (perhaps on purpose.) So they weren't as bad as that 2-14 mark would indicate so their rebound to 11-5 wasn't as drastic as it appears on the surface.

And like I said, when you look at the point differential, most of that comes from a single game. So the size of that point differential appears to be a bit of an anomaly as well.

The point about their record in close games probably returning to the mean is good, though. So they probably will regress a little bit. Hopefully.
I agree for the most part, but if you look at their overall PF/PA even without the 3 blowout losses for a combined 81 points, they align to be a theoretical 7-6 team. They don't win those close games this year against an NFC west division that is even more improved from last year.

Just like with Chicago last year with Takeaways, eventually the numbers average back out. Their first 7 games they had an astronomical amount of takeaways, the last 9 they came back to earth. Just as Indy caught lightning in a bottle at certain points in the season, trends always average back out. I don't see Indy losing more than 7 games, but don't see them winning more than 10 either.

Also interesting was the part about the most interceptable passes being dropped by Andrew Luck's opponents. He forced a ton of throws in that offense. Wonder how the departure of Arians affects their offense with Pagano back and their proclaimed WCO taking place.

I can see them losing to Denver, Seattle, St. Louis, SF, Texans and Cincy. If we sweep both games against them (not likely) that's 7 losses... not unreasonable.

Just one man's opinion.
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Old 08-14-2013   #68
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Default Re: Who wins division?

No doubt in my mind the Colts tanked it. They had a better QB and a FAR better team than we did, for instance, when we finished with the same record. That Colts team could have still won at least 6 games, maybe more.
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Old 08-14-2013   #69
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Default Re: Who wins division?

Code:
Houston Texans		115	95.04%
Indy Colts		4	3.31%
Jacksonville Jaguars	2	1.65%
Nashville Titans	0	0%
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Old 08-15-2013   #70
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Default Re: Who wins division?

Houston will take the South.

The Colts are a good football team with Andrew Luck leading the way. I don't think they are an 11 win team. I checked their schedule and they should be able to win at least 8 games. All in all it's the toughest competition for the Texans.

The Titans are boring.

Jags will be competing for that #1 pick.

... AFC South is one of the weakest divisions in football. We should handle it and be atop for the third straight season.

#BullsOnParade

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Old 08-15-2013   #71
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Default Re: Who wins division?

Quote:
Originally Posted by rpagz3 View Post

Jags will be competing for that #32Edited in original post pick.
You're predicting the Jags to be in the Super Bowl?



Is your real name Blaine?
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Old 08-15-2013   #72
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Default Re: Who wins division?

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You're predicting the Jags to be in the Super Bowl?



Is your real name Blaine?
fixed.
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Old 08-15-2013   #73
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Default Re: Who wins division?

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
You're predicting the Jags to be in the Super Bowl?



Is your real name Blaine?
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Originally Posted by rpagz3 View Post
fixed.
I don't see what's fixed. Could I get a ruling here?

(Not to be taken seriously, but I don't see a correction there..lol. Welcome to the board, rpagz3)
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Old 08-16-2013   #74
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Default Re: Who wins division?

I voted Arizona. Cuz the guy who started this poll is dumb enough to believe it.
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Old 08-16-2013   #75
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Default Re: Who wins division?

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Originally Posted by Texecutioner View Post
Looks like I am one of the three that picked the COlts.

Although it was very tough and I went back and forth on it, and today I sort of think the Texans win it. It was that close for me honestly.

I picked the COlts though because of Luck. I had that much confidence in him coming into the league and he exceeded expectations. I feel like he is one of those QB's that can make his team over achieve and "believe" where they can sneak out a few extra wins on confidence as long as they aren't getting blown out.

The Texans are better all around on paper. However, the Colts are much better at the main position which is the QB position. I like Schaub and defended him a lot last season when a lot of people went way overboard in criticizing him where they acted like he was pure trash. But by the end of the season, Schaub's late season plunge simply could not be ignored. I still think that Schaub could have a pretty good season, but he simply won't ever be that QB that makes huge plays in big games consistently going forward in my eyes while Luck will. And that goes a long way.

And then you have the Kubiak factor where he plays not to lose so much and Gary has shown far to many times that his philosophy will cost this team games, and Gary won't learn from it. He is who he is, and I've accepted that. But it will take a super great QB to over come Gary's inefficiencies, and Schaub simply is not that guy. I could be wrong, and I certainly hope so, but it will take our defense being 2001 Baltimore Ravens like to get a ring with Schaub and Kubes in my opinion based off of what I've seen. I do believe in WATT though!!! Maybe Watt can bring it home.


Right now I'll switch back to the Texans for the division, but I might change it again tomorrow or in a few weeks. It's simply that close of a call.
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Old 08-16-2013   #76
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Default Re: Who wins division?

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Originally Posted by NastyNate View Post

Also interesting was the part about the most interceptable passes being dropped by Andrew Luck's opponents. He forced a ton of throws in that offense. Wonder how the departure of Arians affects their offense with Pagano back and their proclaimed WCO taking place.
Quote:
It would seem safe to assume that Luck will throw fewer than his 18 interceptions from a year ago, but there's a sign that Luck might actually have been … lucky a year ago. (I'm the first person to run into that pun, right? Good.) Football Outsiders charters also credited Luck with more dropped interceptions than anybody else in football last season, and the only regular starter who threw interceptable passes on a more frequent basis was Brandon Weeden. So while I would normally point to the second-year interception-rate turnarounds of players like Peyton Manning and Josh Freeman, Luck's interception rate might remain in the high teens again this year.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/sta...rceptions-2012

And people thought I was crazy during the draft period for predicting INT in the high teens for Luck (and could be up to 25 - was my prediction.)
Sure, I was wrong, it could have been 30, but that's because he went deep more often that I thought they would let him.

I still don't know how he'll turn out; I'm still not buying Luck as the next HOF QB. Right now, his play is not at the same level as RGIII or Wilson between the ears.
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Old 08-16-2013   #77
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Default Re: Who wins division?

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/sta...rceptions-2012

And people thought I was crazy during the draft period for predicting INT in the high teens for Luck (and could be up to 25 - was my prediction.)
Sure, I was wrong, it could have been 30, but that's because he went deep more often that I thought they would let him.

I still don't know how he'll turn out; I'm still not buying Luck as the next HOF QB. Right now, his play is not at the same level as RGIII or Wilson between the ears.
I'm of the same mentality, I just don't see the production to go with all the hype.
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Old 08-16-2013   #78
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Default Re: Who wins division?

IMO our division is just barely a step above the AFC East and that's only because I think INDY will at least be competent.

JAX and TEN will most like blow donkey balls and be the equivalent of a fap fap fap meme on the field.

This is essentially a default division title for us this year, that's the reality. So that is the first step and if that doesn't happen it's a failure.
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Old 08-16-2013   #79
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Default Re: Who wins division?

Texans, but I think that the Colts make it close.
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Old 08-16-2013   #80
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Default Re: Who wins division?

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Texans, but I think that the Colts make it close.
Will we finally win in Indy? That snakebite has to go away!
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