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Old 08-01-2013   #21
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
I've said it before and I'll probably have to say it again but...

I prefer this conservative approach. I prefer winning by choking someone out than losing with big, flashy, grandiose plays.
You don't have to always be looking for a big play to be more effective. You can be highly efficient and effective with what ever play style you have.

I don't care how we play really....I just want it to be as effective as possible.

But When it's not effective in certain areas, then I think we as fans are going to question the methods.
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Old 08-01-2013   #22
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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You don't have to always be looking for a big play to be more effective. You can be highly efficient and effective with what ever play style you have.

I don't care how we play really....I just want it to be as effective as possible.

But When it's not effective in certain areas, then I think we as fans are going to question the methods.
This. I don't think many fans actually care about how conservative the team is, per se. It's just a convenient label to describe ineffectiveness at times. Some of my favorite times as a fan have been the few times that the team has driven 90+ yards in 12 minutes and punched it in for a TD. That is awesome football. I want to see the team grind it out, ram it down the other team's throat, and score. Conversely, some of the most uneasy times as a fan have been the numerous times that the Texans land on 16 points. 1 TD, 3 freakin' FGs, and it keeps the other team {TeddyKGB} hanging around {/TeddyKGB}.

When the team gets a lead, it's time to be conservative, for the most part. There might be a moment or two in the game when they need to take a calculated risk, like when they really need to convert a 3rd down to close it out. But when they fall behind, that conservative crap doesn't work. I want a team that is capable of controlling the tempo for starters, but also regaining control of the tempo as needed. The 2012 Texans had problems in that area.

The article says that Kubiak was correct to go conservative because his team performed poorly in other situations. I have said before that Kubiak can't trust his personnel in certain situations, starting with the QB. So he leans to the safer side of things.
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Old 08-01-2013   #23
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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Co-signed.
Just win.

The aforementioned Patriots and Packers threw the ball around the yard. Neither made the Super Bowl last year. Arguably the best QB of this "age" (#18) who's known for his lofty passing stats was one-and-done in the playoffs last year.

Just do whatever the heck works against whoever the heck we're playing.
Just win.
Actually, the Patriots ran the ball more than the Texans (523 att vs 508 for the Texans). They also passed the ball more than the Texans, but that's because they run more plays. 45% of their plays were runs. 47% of Texans plays were runs. Maybe the Patriots are also a run first team?

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...s/nwe/2012.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.co...s/htx/2012.htm
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Old 08-01-2013   #24
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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You don't have to always be looking for a big play to be more effective. You can be highly efficient and effective with what ever play style you have.

I don't care how we play really....I just want it to be as effective as possible.

But When it's not effective in certain areas, then I think we as fans are going to question the methods.
That's just it. We're being highly effective and people are still complaining.

We won 12 games by an average margin of victory of over 13 points. That's pretty damned good and pretty freaking effective.

And it isn't just that we lost steam at the end because of injuries or whatnot... which we did and that stings. People were complaining about Kubiaks' conservatism even when we were at our hottest and most effective. We could be winning by 20 points and with our backs against the end-zone and if Kubiak calls a draw play on a 3rd and 20, people start complaining about how conservative he is.
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Old 08-01-2013   #25
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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That's just it. We're being highly effective and people are still complaining.

We won 12 games by an average margin of victory of over 13 points. That's pretty damned good and pretty freaking effective.
Honestly, the 12 games thing doesn't matter to me. Lots of teams in the NFL have won 12 games before. I'm not super impressed by that. It's nice, and it's a really good season though. I want to see us play well in big games against high profile teams.


And the problem is that people think we could be more effective especially when situations get tougher. With the talent we have, finishing near the top of the league should be a given as far as offense goes. We had 5 pro bowl caliber players on offense last year. The biggest injuries we suffered last year were defensively...Not on offense.

Andre, Schaub and Arian haven't made it through many seasons together where they ALL stayed healthy. I don't think there is anything wrong with wanting a team that is this talented to do more. They can be better offensively. They know that and they have all said it. They were disappointed with their performances.

I think the ultimate goal is to win a superbowl. The Texans had a good year last year, but they aren't winning any superbowls playing like they did last year down the stretch.
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Old 08-01-2013   #26
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
Interestingly, the conclusion is that given the way the team is structured, such conservatism makes sense.

FWIW, this is part of the conclusion about the coaching staff that is included at the end of the chapter:
I saw that part, but kubiak gets to conservative at the wrong times IMO.like the last 4 games of the season for example. He should have pulled out all the tricks to secure the #1 seed, and look what happened.
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Old 08-01-2013   #27
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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Maybe something different could have helped us be THE TOP offense in the NFL.
I never thought Kubiak was "conservative" by nature. I always thought he wanted to run wide open all the time. But... things happen when this bunch of guys tried it. There was a time when if you called someone a RB he'd fumble the ball.

We invented new ways to lose games in 2010 & we were slinging it.

I don't think Gary opening it up in 2012 would have made us the top offense in the NFL. A little more continuity on the right side of the line, 5+ ypc in the run game, better Quality receivers.... better play from the QB position... those would have probably helped more.
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Old 08-01-2013   #28
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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We have to play better down the stretch and we have to find a way to stop higher-caliber offenses and not get ourselves in out-of-hand situations against teams like the Patriots and Packers. But. This is a young team that is new to winning and it's in the process of developing a winning tradition and a winning identity. I'm cool with that. We just need to keep winning and keep getting better at it.
Certain teams, you can't let them get to big a lead. If they've got 10 points on you, there is pressure to score.

We got down by 5 early in the Denver game. Had we not scored when we did, it could have really been bad. GB & New England gave us opportunities to score early, but we pissed them away (GBs defense actually played that well). Our second game against New England, even though they had us on the score board, going into half time we still had some control.

Then we let New England score on a 7 play drive that took all of 3 minutes to open the half. Our offense answers by going 3 & out. Defense steps it up & get us the ball back. We grind down the field for the next 4 & a half minutes to pick up about 50 yards. Then throw an INT.

Six plays later Brandon Lloyd is doing his touchdown dance.

6 possessions to open the third Qtr, New England got three, we got three. They scored on two out of three. We didn't score on any of ours.

Playing against a team that struggles with points, we can get away with that. We were 8th in ppg, They were 1st & it showed. FYI, Broncos were 2nd, GB was 5th, Baltimore was 10th.
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Old 08-01-2013   #29
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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I never thought Kubiak was "conservative" by nature. I always thought he wanted to run wide open all the time. But... things happen when this bunch of guys tried it. There was a time when if you called someone a RB he'd fumble the ball.

We invented new ways to lose games in 2010 & we were slinging it.

I don't think Gary opening it up in 2012 would have made us the top offense in the NFL. A little more continuity on the right side of the line, 5+ ypc in the run game, better Quality receivers.... better play from the QB position... those would have probably helped more.
My argument is not to open the offense up. I actually LOVE this offense and I have a great, great respect for Kubiak as a playcaller.

I honestly don't know what Kubiak could have done to improve the offense last year. I can come up with a bunch of stuff I would have tried or done differently, but I don't know if it'd have worked...I'm not saying they should have done anything specifically right now.


The reason I quoted you with that comment I made is because I don't have a problem with people wanting more in this instance. I think it's reasonable to expect this offense to be better.
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Old 08-01-2013   #30
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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Honestly, the 12 games thing doesn't matter to me. Lots of teams in the NFL have won 12 games before. I'm not super impressed by that. It's nice, and it's a really good season though. I want to see us play well in big games against high profile teams.
Like against Denver, Baltimore, Chicago, and Cincinnati?

I'd like to win them all but there's want and there's realistic.
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Old 08-01-2013   #31
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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Like against Denver, Baltimore, Chicago, and Cincinnati?

I'd like to win them all but there's want and there's realistic.
I would use a face palm smiley if I did that sort of thing.

I don't care what their record is as long as it gets them into the play-offs.

I really don't care if you are satisfied with what they ended up doing last year. But please, don't try to bring me down to your low expectations.
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Old 08-02-2013   #32
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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I would use a face palm smiley if I did that sort of thing.

I don't care what their record is as long as it gets them into the play-offs.

I really don't care if you are satisfied with what they ended up doing last year. But please, don't try to bring me down to your low expectations.
I think his point is that the thought now is that we couldn't compete against the better teams in the league because we were outclassed by GB & NE.

But we put the stank on Denver & Baltimore, two of the better teams in the league. We did the same to Chicago... they turned out to be an even bigger paper tiger than we were, but at the time, they looked like the class of the NFC.

& while Cincinnati isn't considered among the better teams in the league, they are a back to back play off team. Things could be better of course, but we could be Chicago... for a little while we were. We could be Cincinnati... we probably should have been the one & done Cincinnati Bengals.

Some people think we did no better than we did in 2011, exiting in the divisional round, & technically that's true. But I don't think it was the same. Had we played Baltimore, no doubt in my mind we'd have beat them.

Doesn't mean much but in my mind. New England is on another level than Baltimore & Denver..... we could beat them (again in my mind) 2 out of 5 times, where I think it's more 50/50 with Baltimore & Denver.

I know it looks bad 41 to whatever... again if James Casey caught that ball I think New England would have had trouble keeping up with us.

Anyway, I think that was his point. I get your point as well. It's not that Kubiak was conservative, he was spineless. Put the ball in Schaub's hand on 3rd & 19, give us a shot to make it. If he throws it away, so be it.
Truthfully I haven't figured out if it's Kubiak that was spinelss, calling the draw; or if Schaub was the spineless one checking to the draw when he didn't see the ideal coverage.
But it was spineless just the same.
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Old 08-02-2013   #33
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I would use a face palm smiley if I did that sort of thing.

I don't care what their record is as long as it gets them into the play-offs.

I really don't care if you are satisfied with what they ended up doing last year. But please, don't try to bring me down to your low expectations.
But they did get into the playoffs....

You wanted them to show well against good teams. They did that against more than half the good teams they played.

I don't actually recall saying what my expectations were, so that's odd that you'd call them low.
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Old 08-02-2013   #34
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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But they did get into the playoffs....

You wanted them to show well against good teams. They did that against more than half the good teams they played.

I don't actually recall saying what my expectations were, so that's odd that you'd call them low.
Don't forget to mention that both GB & NE had their butts handed to them by lesser teams as well.
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Old 08-02-2013   #35
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

Maybe its the homer in me talking but I feel REALLY damn good about this season in all areas but one: Outside linebacker. We have zero depth and one starter now has a hamstring injury.
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Old 08-02-2013   #36
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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But they did get into the playoffs....

You wanted them to show well against good teams. They did that against more than half the good teams they played.
What good teams? Denver early in the year when they were still feeling themselves out? Baltimore before they switched OC's and had one of their worst games of the year?

Chicago? Seriously? The offense didn't do much that game and had Cutler not gotten hurt that game could have easily gone either way.

But yeah...Lets celebrate those wins. Nevermind them getting their asses handed to them when they were: 1) Undefeated against a good team playing in front of a national audience 2) getting owned against the lowly vikings and colts when they needed to win for home field advantage 3) being one slightly overthrown ball away from being bounced in the first round against the Bengals 4) And then finally, going into NE and getting thrashed




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I don't actually recall saying what my expectations were, so that's odd that you'd call them low
You don't have to say everything directly. When you say something was good enough, that defines your expectations. If it wasn't good enough, then what exactly is your point?
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Old 08-02-2013   #37
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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I think his point is that the thought now is that we couldn't compete against the better teams in the league because we were outclassed by GB & NE.

But we put the stank on Denver & Baltimore, two of the better teams in the league. We did the same to Chicago... they turned out to be an even bigger paper tiger than we were, but at the time, they looked like the class of the NFC.

& while Cincinnati isn't considered among the better teams in the league, they are a back to back play off team. Things could be better of course, but we could be Chicago... for a little while we were. We could be Cincinnati... we probably should have been the one & done Cincinnati Bengals.

Some people think we did no better than we did in 2011, exiting in the divisional round, & technically that's true. But I don't think it was the same. Had we played Baltimore, no doubt in my mind we'd have beat them.

Doesn't mean much but in my mind. New England is on another level than Baltimore & Denver..... we could beat them (again in my mind) 2 out of 5 times, where I think it's more 50/50 with Baltimore & Denver.

I know it looks bad 41 to whatever... again if James Casey caught that ball I think New England would have had trouble keeping up with us.

Anyway, I think that was his point. I get your point as well. It's not that Kubiak was conservative, he was spineless. Put the ball in Schaub's hand on 3rd & 19, give us a shot to make it. If he throws it away, so be it.
Truthfully I haven't figured out if it's Kubiak that was spinelss, calling the draw; or if Schaub was the spineless one checking to the draw when he didn't see the ideal coverage.
But it was spineless just the same.
Listen TK...All I see are a bunch of excuses. Windows aren't open for long in the NFL. You need to strike when the iron is hot. I think last season was the first year Dre, Arian and Schaub were all healthy. You had three pro bowl Linemen healthy all year.

True we lost Cushing and the right side struggled...True we had injury problems on the Defense...So what? Every team has issues. We didn't overcome ours WHEN WE NEEDED TO. It's that simple. We didn't step up our play. We are going to have issues this year too guys...The excuses will never stop...You guys can rationalize all you want. That's not my make-up. They didn't get it done and they didn't play as well as they should have. Is your argument really that we are so fragile that one dropped pass on the first drive of a game in the play-offs means we're going to get out doors blown off? How does that make you feel better? If we can't overcome hiccups and fold like a piece of paper in big moments then we're doomed. I refuse to take your arguments seriously because the excuses you are making would not make me feel better about this team.

Spineless coach or Spineless QB are not two options I want to choose from. We just need to do better.
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Old 08-02-2013   #38
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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Don't forget to mention that both GB & NE had their butts handed to them by lesser teams as well.
How do you conclude who is a lesser team?

What lesser teams handed NE and GB their Butts?

I don't believe the Texans got beat badly by any "lesser teams" so I don't even know what point you're trying to make???
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Old 08-02-2013   #39
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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Originally Posted by Rey View Post
How do you conclude who is a lesser team?

What lesser teams handed NE and GB their Butts?

I don't believe the Texans got beat badly by any "lesser teams" so I don't even know what point you're trying to make???
Packers lost to the Vikings twice. Means the Texans were beaten by a lesser team as well

Pats lost to the Cardinals and Ravens (who were not good during the regular season)
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Old 08-02-2013   #40
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Default Re: Football Outsiders bullish on the Texans

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Originally Posted by DX-TEX View Post
Packers lost to the Vikings twice. Means the Texans were beaten by a lesser team as well

Pats lost to the Cardinals and Ravens (who were not good during the regular season)
Think Rey was pointing out to the 'handing them their butts' meaning a whipping. Pats lost by a combined 3 points in both those games and the Packers only loss once to the Vikings and it was by 3 points. The other game they won it.
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