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Old 06-20-2013   #21
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Default Re: What are realistic projections for DeAndre Hopkins?

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
I think the system focus is a bit misplaced. Have you examined 1st round picks who came into the league to be #2 WRs?
One of the blog commenters talked a bit on this subject.

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And I thought you were looking for good topics. This is a very good one. One of the problems that has turned many Texans fans bitter is not managing expectations well. What many people are asking for out of a #2 WR is #1 WR numbers. So what is reasonable? I looked up some stats from last year to see what an average #2 WR does. A couple things to remember looking at this: 1) Many teams had guys playing other positions than WR who got a lot of catches Ė Iím only looking at wide receivers, and 2) when I talk about WR #1 or WR #2, Iím talking about the guy on each team who had the best or second best stats in that category. For example, Randall Cobb led Green Bay in yards, so he is WR #1 for yardage, but James Jones led the Packers in TDs, so he is WR #1 for TDs.

The average #1 WR in the NFL averaged 1,068 yards last season. Expect a #2 to do better than that? Only 3 did Ė Julio Jones (ATL), Eric Decker (DEN) and Lance Moore (NO). The average #2 WR had 697 yards last season. What about touchdowns? The average #1 scored 7. The average #2 scored 4. Only 3 WR #2 players scored more than 7 TDs: Thomas (DEN), Cobb (GB), and Jackson (TB). So the average #2 receiver should get around 700 yards and 4 TDs. In case anyone is wondering, Kevin Walter was at 518 yards and 2 TDs last season, pretty well below average numbers.

But what about rookies? There were four wide receivers taken in the first round of the 2012 draft. Two of them were second on their teams in yards and TDs: Justin Blackmon for the Jags (865 and 5) and Kendall Wright of the Titans (626 and 4). Arizonaís Michael Floyd was third on his team with 562 and 2, and A.J. Jenkins didnít play much for San Francisco. Throwing out Jenkins since he didnít play, it seems that a rookie should be able to get average numbers, given the opportunities.

So what does all this mean for Houston and DeAndre Hopkins? Probably nothing, as it is a different team with different players, and a fairly small sample size. However, I think it is safe to expect that Hopkins will be better than Walter (as Blackmon and Wright were), and put up yardage around or slightly below 700, and score around 4 TDs. For those wishing for a WR2 over 1000 yards and 10 TDs, only Denver had two wide receivers to go over 1000 yards and over 10 TDs, and they had Peyton Manning at quarterback.
I do think the system/context is something worth focusing on.

The Broncos-Texans draft system gets a lot of coaching input.

But how is it that the Texans have had fungible productive tight ends since 2006, but have had more difficulty replacing WRs?

I think part of that is opportunity.

I also think part of that is the demands placed on WRs in this system. You couldn't have a talented Chad Johnson who can't get the playbook on this roster.

I also think that the balanced run/pass offense means that you can't really make comparisons to teams that do things like let's say the Packers or Saints do. If the team is playing winning football, they aren't going to want Schaub to be regularly doing a ton of attempts.
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Old 06-20-2013   #22
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Default Re: What are realistic projections for DeAndre Hopkins?

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You do interviews at time when interviews can be done--or set them up through PR staff.
I figured I'd leave the logistics up to you. Surely if you ask, they'll throw you a bone.....



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Old 06-20-2013   #23
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Default Re: What are realistic projections for DeAndre Hopkins?

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I think Hopkins has the potential to blow the top off the offense.

I've watched him run into an extra gear. He is very, very aggressive once in the ball is in the air. Hard to knock off his stride, catches the ball even with interference.

So no, he's not a 40 time guy, but neither was Jerry Rice. You aren't going to be a great GM if you go after slowish guys from small schools on a regular basis. But you go after special guys.

I think Hopkins has the potential to be a special player. I see the physical tools-- just about learning the offense.
I sure hope you're right about this (blowing the top off the offense) TC. If he can it might add an extra year or two to AJ's career. I'm not expecting much the 1st few games but I'm hoping he really kick's it in to high gear midway through the season and peaks for the playoffs.
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Old 06-20-2013   #24
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Default Re: What are realistic projections for DeAndre Hopkins?

Corrosion, don't forget that Matt Ryans had 594 attempts that year, with Jones pulling in 54 catches.

If the Texans get ahead and run the ball like they've doing lately, especially with a defense that is supposed to be better than last year, there won't be many pass attempts by Schaub.

And Hopkins is not in Jones' class.
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Old 06-20-2013   #25
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Default Re: What are realistic projections for DeAndre Hopkins?

As a rookie, I think he will contribute to the Texans offense more than a lot of us are predicting. Will he be the OROY, no. But he is going to make us very happy we drafted him.
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Old 06-20-2013   #26
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Default Re: What are realistic projections for DeAndre Hopkins?

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
Corrosion, don't forget that Matt Ryans had 594 attempts that year, with Jones pulling in 54 catches.

If the Texans get ahead and run the ball like they've doing lately, especially with a defense that is supposed to be better than last year, there won't be many pass attempts by Schaub.

And Hopkins is not in Jones' class.
You're slicing the onion too thin. 2012 the Texans had 554 passing attempts while often holding the lead and running the game clock out. They still pass. No running game and great running game Schaub/Texans have averaged 250 yds passing per game. Not good enough to keep Walter had the ball thrown to him 68 times last season. Seriously do not understand how anyone thinks Hopkins is going to be targeted less.
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Old 06-20-2013   #27
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Default Re: What are realistic projections for DeAndre Hopkins?

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You know how you encourage good articles? You click on good articles. That encourages the powers that be that quality content is worth hosting.

That anyone clicks on my articles at the Chronicle is the reason why I can go to camp and write things that are details fans care about.

If my articles do not get page views, then at some point the blog will go away. The NYTs has eliminated many of their sports blogs, and probably wouldn't had they got more page hits.

Clicking on analysis pieces gets more analysis pieces. If you don't, then the slideshow and crap content wins.
You make some good points .... but I haven't clicked on the Crapical for over a year (other than stealth links) ... I cant stand that rag.



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I hope we are *disappointed* in receptions/yards/TDs even.

That likely means that the defense is wrecking shop and the running game works the way it does best.

Let fantasy football peoples be concerned with numbers.
That wouldn't bother me one bit .... The only number I care about is #48 - the number on this years Superbowl Trophy.



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I think the point isn't just stretching the field, it is in general, making teams pay if they key too much on Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, etc.

Another reliable option means in any one play, you can kill the defense if they overplay anyone. If Hopkins learns up the offense, and Andre Johnson stays healthy, Hopkins will be able to abuse defenses.

But there will be up and downs--mistakes by wide receivers tend to be glaring and bad timing and can be devastating if it results in an interception.

Hopkins is a fantastic route runner with a knack for getting open .... and has the speed to make teams pay for mistakes. Watching him in college he was the one receiver I said " I hope that guy is a Texan" ....

Im wondering how defenses deal with the offense in general ... Just so many weapons that can beat you on any given play.
They cant double everyone .... and then the threat of Foster wrecking shop.
The key is the right side of the OL , if they hold up opposing defenses are in for a world of hurt.
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Old 06-20-2013   #28
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Default Re: What are realistic projections for DeAndre Hopkins?

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I think Hopkins has the potential to blow the top off the offense.

I've watched him run into an extra gear. He is very, very aggressive once in the ball is in the air. Hard to knock off his stride, catches the ball even with interference.

So no, he's not a 40 time guy, but neither was Jerry Rice. You aren't going to be a great GM if you go after slowish guys from small schools on a regular basis. But you go after special guys.

I think Hopkins has the potential to be a special player. I see the physical tools-- just about learning the offense.
I agree with that. Hopkins plays like a buzz saw at the WR position.
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Old 06-20-2013   #29
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Default Re: What are realistic projections for DeAndre Hopkins?

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I agree with that. Hopkins plays like a buzz saw at the WR position.
He reminds me of a more polished version of Anquan Boldin .... Not that he's a more polished receiver but that he has the toughness when the ball is in the air that Boldin has and the knack for finding openings in a defense.


If he has the type of career that Boldin has had I think we'll all be happy.
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Old 06-20-2013   #30
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Default Re: What are realistic projections for DeAndre Hopkins?

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Corrosion, don't forget that Matt RyanS had 594 attempts that year, with Jones pulling in 54 catches.
Is that DeMeco's kin folk?
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Old 06-20-2013   #31
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Default Re: What are realistic projections for DeAndre Hopkins?

I'll take quality receptions over quantity and a good understanding of the offense over flashes in the pan. Hopkins is a rookie and I expect rookie mistakes. I also expect improvement at his position due to rookie enthusiasm and talent. Walter was not nearly as talented as he was work ethic organized.
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Old 06-20-2013   #32
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Default Re: What are realistic projections for DeAndre Hopkins?

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I don't know about you, but if he starts catching a bunch of TDs, that's just going to make me consider AJ's lack of TD production in a different light.
Well, I don't think defenses are going to defend/gameplan against Hopkins the same way they do/have done with Dre.
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Old 06-20-2013   #33
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Default Re: What are realistic projections for DeAndre Hopkins?

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You're slicing the onion too thin. 2012 the Texans had 554 passing attempts while often holding the lead and running the game clock out. They still pass. No running game and great running game Schaub/Texans have averaged 250 yds passing per game. Not good enough to keep Walter had the ball thrown to him 68 times last season. Seriously do not understand how anyone thinks Hopkins is going to be targeted less.
Take away the 24 attempts in the 2 OT's and what do you get?

How many attempts did the Texans have in 2011 when the D play well?
The Texans did not pass less without Schaub. Basically, they averaged just slightly over 29 attempts per game with or without Schaub.

The Texans were ahead by 2 scores more often in the second half in 2011 than in 2012; and they were in the deep hole only a couple of times in 2011.

You know Kubiak always prefer to run the ball when the Texans have a lead, especially with a good defense on the field.
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Old 06-20-2013   #34
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Default Re: What are realistic projections for DeAndre Hopkins?

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Take away the 24 attempts in the 2 OT's and what do you get?
I love how you addressed absolutely nothing.

To answer your question nothing different than when you take away the 28 attempts the Falcons, not Ryan, had that you were trying to count.

Spare me the 2011 talk if you are going to try to argue the O was anything close to the same without Schaub. It loses all credibility in my book. Frankly it is just ridiculous to point to a season where the starting QB is out for a third of the season as anything typical.

But if you really want to tell me the passing game didn't change tell me what is the difference in 7.08 and 8.49? Let's see if you know these numbers - 2.2 v. 5.1?
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Old 06-20-2013   #35
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Default Re: What are realistic projections for DeAndre Hopkins?

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I love how you addressed absolutely nothing.

To answer your question nothing different than when you take away the 28 attempts the Falcons, not Ryan, had that you were trying to count.

Spare me the 2011 talk if you are going to try to argue the O was anything close to the same without Schaub. It loses all credibility in my book. Frankly it is just ridiculous to point to a season where the starting QB is out for a third of the season as anything typical.

But if you really want to tell me the passing game didn't change tell me what is the difference in 7.08 and 8.49? Let's see if you know these numbers - 2.2 v. 5.1?
Let's take this one step at a time.

The Falcons had 588 attempts in regular time; the Texans had 530 attempts last year.

Meaning, not counting OT for either team.
One cannot predict nor expect to see an OT game.

The difference of 58 attempts is at least 1.5 game worth in the passing game for the Texans.

Can we agree on that much?
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Old 06-20-2013   #36
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Default Re: What are realistic projections for DeAndre Hopkins?

I'm as excited as anyone about DeAndre....

but let's not crown him until we've at least seen him in pads, going over the middle, taking hits, etc.
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Old 06-20-2013   #37
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Default Re: What are realistic projections for DeAndre Hopkins?

i'm waiting to hear what steph says about hopkins in training camp. during OTA's there was a very "man among boys" theme from reporters, if that continues i'd be comfortable predicting a big season (700+ yds). schaub will be looking to hopkins several times a game, and i expect kubiak to throw it to him early in games to pull teams off of andre.
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Old 06-20-2013   #38
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Default Re: What are realistic projections for DeAndre Hopkins?

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As a rookie? I'd be very impressed.

Now if Andre were to go down later in the year & Posey is back, or if LeStar had a great year, then maybe... maybe. But if we're talking about no Andre in week 5 & we go out there with DeAndre, LeStar, KMart...... @ SanFrancisco??

I'm not holding my breath.
Imo, Hopkins over Kmart and Jean. Posey not there until late season if at all. I'm not sure Hopkins realizes he is a rookie.
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Old 06-20-2013   #39
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Default Re: What are realistic projections for DeAndre Hopkins?

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Well, I don't think defenses are going to defend/gameplan against Hopkins the same way they do/have done with Dre.
Well, that is a pretty bold and safe statement. Multi year pro-bowler versus a rookie and they guard the rookie differently?
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Old 06-20-2013   #40
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Default Re: What are realistic projections for DeAndre Hopkins?

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I'm as excited as anyone about DeAndre....

but let's not crown him until we've at least seen him in pads, going over the middle, taking hits, etc.
I'd rather seem him going over the middle, avoiding hits, & scoring TDs
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