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Old 06-20-2013   #10
Texans_Chick
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Default Re: What are realistic projections for DeAndre Hopkins?

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
I think the system focus is a bit misplaced. Have you examined 1st round picks who came into the league to be #2 WRs?
One of the blog commenters talked a bit on this subject.

Quote:
And I thought you were looking for good topics. This is a very good one. One of the problems that has turned many Texans fans bitter is not managing expectations well. What many people are asking for out of a #2 WR is #1 WR numbers. So what is reasonable? I looked up some stats from last year to see what an average #2 WR does. A couple things to remember looking at this: 1) Many teams had guys playing other positions than WR who got a lot of catches Ė Iím only looking at wide receivers, and 2) when I talk about WR #1 or WR #2, Iím talking about the guy on each team who had the best or second best stats in that category. For example, Randall Cobb led Green Bay in yards, so he is WR #1 for yardage, but James Jones led the Packers in TDs, so he is WR #1 for TDs.

The average #1 WR in the NFL averaged 1,068 yards last season. Expect a #2 to do better than that? Only 3 did Ė Julio Jones (ATL), Eric Decker (DEN) and Lance Moore (NO). The average #2 WR had 697 yards last season. What about touchdowns? The average #1 scored 7. The average #2 scored 4. Only 3 WR #2 players scored more than 7 TDs: Thomas (DEN), Cobb (GB), and Jackson (TB). So the average #2 receiver should get around 700 yards and 4 TDs. In case anyone is wondering, Kevin Walter was at 518 yards and 2 TDs last season, pretty well below average numbers.

But what about rookies? There were four wide receivers taken in the first round of the 2012 draft. Two of them were second on their teams in yards and TDs: Justin Blackmon for the Jags (865 and 5) and Kendall Wright of the Titans (626 and 4). Arizonaís Michael Floyd was third on his team with 562 and 2, and A.J. Jenkins didnít play much for San Francisco. Throwing out Jenkins since he didnít play, it seems that a rookie should be able to get average numbers, given the opportunities.

So what does all this mean for Houston and DeAndre Hopkins? Probably nothing, as it is a different team with different players, and a fairly small sample size. However, I think it is safe to expect that Hopkins will be better than Walter (as Blackmon and Wright were), and put up yardage around or slightly below 700, and score around 4 TDs. For those wishing for a WR2 over 1000 yards and 10 TDs, only Denver had two wide receivers to go over 1000 yards and over 10 TDs, and they had Peyton Manning at quarterback.
I do think the system/context is something worth focusing on.

The Broncos-Texans draft system gets a lot of coaching input.

But how is it that the Texans have had fungible productive tight ends since 2006, but have had more difficulty replacing WRs?

I think part of that is opportunity.

I also think part of that is the demands placed on WRs in this system. You couldn't have a talented Chad Johnson who can't get the playbook on this roster.

I also think that the balanced run/pass offense means that you can't really make comparisons to teams that do things like let's say the Packers or Saints do. If the team is playing winning football, they aren't going to want Schaub to be regularly doing a ton of attempts.
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