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Old 04-30-2013   #21
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Originally Posted by Brisco_County View Post
Then this is for me, because I highly dislike draft grades. Except in 2011 when sports pundits graded the Texans with B's and C's, and CBS Sports judged JJ Watt a "questionable pick."
No one knew for sure that JJ would be the success that he has become, including you. Everyone can be perfectly critical in hindsight.
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Old 04-30-2013   #22
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

"Draft Grades" are kinda BS..... Think about it, you're grading guys that have never played a down in the NFL.

Furthermore, there are guys like Johnny Harris (and of course LZ) that I have the utmost respect for, buried the "Duane Brown reach" and ripped DB after his rookie season.... Almost to the point of starting an on-air fight with "Kirby"....

"Let's Put the film on, Bro!!!"

Johnny Harris admits that Duane Brown is if not the best, close to the best LT's in the league today.

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The point is, you never really know.
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Old 04-30-2013   #23
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
They are two different exercises. I graded each player and at the top of the post, I gave a A+ smiley face star for the whole draft.

Both of the exercises are silly.

Draft grades are a fiction depending on so much stuff that hasn't happened and isn't a fixed future.
I enjoyed the read, but I don't agree. If you bought a 1/2 ton Chevy for $35,000 do we have to wait till you put 250,000 miles on it to determine if it was a good buy? Or can we assess whether that was a prudent expenditure based on your current situation & what we know about the pick-up at the time of purchase? If you find out 18 months later that you bought a lemon, doesn't change the fact that the 1/2 ton either did or did not address your transportation needs.

That's what grading the draft is about. The state of your team, the assets you have, how you managed your resources, & based on what we know at the time, did you improve your team.

When the Broncos moved up to grab Cutler after he fell out of the top 10, that was a great move & Shanahan was lauded for it. Due to other circumstances not related to Cutler, it turned out that the team didn't get good enough, fast enough, so it really didn't matter. Doesn't change the fact that the Broncos made an excellent attempt at improving their team.

Some organizations do a good job improving their team between February & September, some organizations don't. There's got to be a way to quantify that.
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Old 04-30-2013   #24
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

I look at it like this, you really can't judge how productive a draft class or a player in the draft is going to be until their entire career is over. You can't even judge it a couple of years later, you have to wait until the entire thing has played out.

But at any particular time, you can project how good you think a player is going to do with a particular team. That's a combination of how good you think the player is AND how well they're going to fit in that team's system. I don't think there's anything wrong with that. It's like playing fantasy football and trying to guess which guys are going to be most productive over the course of a season.

There's a kind of arrogance in that, though. Because you're basically saying that you're better at judging how good a player is going to be than a professional team is and how good a player is going to fit into a particular team's system than the coaches and scouts for that team.

You can also try to guess whether a pick is a reach or not by whether you think that player was still going to be around at that team's next pick. BUT. If you think that a team reached for Player A, it means that you had a lower grade on him than the team did but the fact that one team had a higher grade than you did means that other teams might have had a higher grade than you did. It's more of an indictment against your ability to grade a player than it is an indictment of the team's ability to pick.

So.

It's fun to look at the draft like this and grade it. But until these guys complete their careers, there's no way to say whether this draft was any good or not.
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Old 04-30-2013   #25
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
I don't grade a draft, but I don't think it's silly that others do.

Even if what they do is silly, it's silly not to let other people do their silly things for fun.
Quit being silly.
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Old 05-01-2013   #26
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

results have to be measured by some metric, grades are just simple ones anyone can relate to. everyone seems impressed with this haul, this gives Texans front office a string of at least four consecutive above average graded drafts with results streaming each succeeding season, up to 12-4 this past season should be proof enough Texans are showing a lot of consistency & continuity year in and year out using draft as their primary talent pool.

Draft grades are incumbent on those who desire to pursue an interest in adding value to their fellow fan base in draft related items in a very personal & alternate methods to the machine over on Kirby. Maybe if more interesting, factual information could be shared with their fans, some of us would be content & save ourselves hundred of hours researching players who fit as Texans? I don't know it is what it is just plain silly
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Old 05-01-2013   #27
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
That's what grading the draft is about. The state of your team, the assets you have, how you managed your resources, & based on what we know at the time, did you improve your team?

Some organizations do a good job improving their team between February & September, some organizations don't. There's got to be a way to quantify that.
you're right, draft grades, like most other grades in life, should be based on some quantifiable, measurable, numeric metric. As you hinted at, when they actually figure out how to quantify the level of improvement then they'd be useful.

Right now Draft grades remind me too much of the results of beauty contests; much too subjective and entirely dependent upon what "the judges" were expecting to see.

unfortunately, all we've got that really counts are wins and losses and those may or may not be significantly influenced by your draft.
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Old 05-01-2013   #28
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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No one knew for sure that JJ would be the success that he has become, including you. Everyone can be perfectly critical in hindsight.
Or, instead of grading draft picks based on very sketchy, incomplete info, why not just go, OK, let's see what the Texans are thinking, and wait and see.

My approach is, I want a clean slate for the players, and just see what they do on the field as NFL players.

Usually "draft grades" are really boneheads going, "Did the choices correspond to the imperfect information that draftniks have?"

Oh, and this is what I wrote about JJ Watt after the draft:

Welcome JJ Watt: The Most Texany Texan?

It's not a draft grade. It's just an examination of why the Texans may have chosen JJ Watt as opposed to alternatives. And when you look at the imperfect information that was out there, and the info that is just facts stuff (his combine numbers, his awards), you go, yup, I really like this pick a lot.

Given that Wade compared him to Phil Hansen suggests that even he didn't know what was possible.
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Old 05-01-2013   #29
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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I enjoyed the read, but I don't agree. If you bought a 1/2 ton Chevy for $35,000 do we have to wait till you put 250,000 miles on it to determine if it was a good buy? Or can we assess whether that was a prudent expenditure based on your current situation & what we know about the pick-up at the time of purchase? If you find out 18 months later that you bought a lemon, doesn't change the fact that the 1/2 ton either did or did not address your transportation needs.

That's what grading the draft is about. The state of your team, the assets you have, how you managed your resources, & based on what we know at the time, did you improve your team.

When the Broncos moved up to grab Cutler after he fell out of the top 10, that was a great move & Shanahan was lauded for it. Due to other circumstances not related to Cutler, it turned out that the team didn't get good enough, fast enough, so it really didn't matter. Doesn't change the fact that the Broncos made an excellent attempt at improving their team.

Some organizations do a good job improving their team between February & September, some organizations don't. There's got to be a way to quantify that.
You mean like this?



The proof is on the field. Assessments in the meantime, with letter grades and nonsense is just going, "Hey look, I know this stuff because I slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night."

Draft grades are all over the place, there's no penalty if bloviators are wrong.
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Old 05-01-2013   #30
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Going to disagree. At this point, all draftees are based on potential of how teams think they will translate to NFL. Draft grades are based on how folks think teams did evaluating players' college skills + where the players were drafted (value) based on known info. It is not a grade necessarily on how the player will play. If you say they cannot be graded as not playing yet then certain positions like CB, WR, LT or QB should be given only an incomplete for 3 years. How do you grade a QB like Aaron Rodgers who sits behind the starter?

Not attacking you Steph or Lance but why not allow folks to do what they want? It reminds me of those going into mock draft forum and then complain that folks should not do mocks.
Not stopping you for doing whatever. Go for it.

But it is perfectly ok to say that actual grades on drafts before the season is usually a reflection of how closely the drafts comport to general draftnik views and less to what will be seen on the field, and that the draft grades are usually VERY VERY wrong for a variety of reasons.

I prefer just looking at the potential for fit, and then going, alrighty then, I either get this pick or I don't. But acknowledging that you have to see it on the field.
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Old 05-01-2013   #31
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Originally Posted by BullBlitz View Post
No one knew for sure that JJ would be the success that he has become, including you. Everyone can be perfectly critical in hindsight.
That's exactly my point, which is why draft grades are valueless.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
Or, instead of grading draft picks based on very sketchy, incomplete info, why not just go, OK, let's see what the Texans are thinking, and wait and see.

My approach is, I want a clean slate for the players, and just see what they do on the field as NFL players.

Usually "draft grades" are really boneheads going, "Did the choices correspond to the imperfect information that draftniks have?"
Oh, and this is what I wrote about JJ Watt after the draft:

Welcome JJ Watt: The Most Texany Texan?

It's not a draft grade. It's just an examination of why the Texans may have chosen JJ Watt as opposed to alternatives. And when you look at the imperfect information that was out there, and the info that is just facts stuff (his combine numbers, his awards), you go, yup, I really like this pick a lot.

Given that Wade compared him to Phil Hansen suggests that even he didn't know what was possible.
Draft grades exist to protect the perceived credibility of the draftniks when the teams contradict their sage advice. If they were interested in establishing real credibility, they would do follow-up grades one year later.
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Old 05-01-2013   #32
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
Not stopping you for doing whatever. Go for it.

But it is perfectly ok to say that actual grades on drafts before the season is usually a reflection of how closely the drafts comport to general draftnik views and less to what will be seen on the field, and that the draft grades are usually VERY VERY wrong for a variety of reasons.

I prefer just looking at the potential for fit, and then going, alrighty then, I either get this pick or I don't. But acknowledging that you have to see it on the field.
Good interaction! I again disagree as many of us watch the college player on the field, bowls and combine. Not by any imagination saying I or any of my draft nuts er nik friends are as good or better than teams. We only have the results of the players our team select to go by. For example, I wanted either Hankins in first or Brandon Williams in third for our NT. We will never know if either would have been better than Hopkins or Swearinger + if we had drafted Hankins, we would have had to draft WR in second so evaluation is difficult if not impossible as not apples to apples.

My position is those who want to offer grades, go for it. Millions watch those on NFL Network and ESPN do just that. Thousands listen to radio guys who watch less college games than I do. An opinion is just that, whether it is by a guy like me or an NFL scout. His opinion carries more weight for obvious reasons but his can be wrong and mine be right. How many NFL teams let Rodgers sit in the green room or Foster go undrafted?

True it is that none have played an NFL down but would you rather have Eric Fisher or our Quisenberry? Based on "grades" we know that answer. Yes Quissy could become all pro and Fisher could fizzle, but I take that chance.

Finally you say "go for it" but at post #28 you say draft graders are boneheads?
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Old 05-01-2013   #33
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Finally you say "go for it" but at post #28 you say draft graders are boneheads?
Simple translation tells me TC is saying "go for being a bonehead".


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Old 05-01-2013   #34
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Finally you say "go for it" but at post #28 you say draft graders are boneheads?
In America, you have an inalienable right to refer to a group of people as boneheads or be a bonehead as long as you do not violate local, state, or federal laws....or message board rules.

My reaction to the draft grade stuff was mostly in response to my old editors going, "give us letter grades for the Texans draft so we can put together a draft grade post." And me going, well, this is sort of a dumb exercise because nobody knows how these college kids are going to play on the next level with these particular teams, not even the smartest draftniks in the world.

Everybody gets it wrong. And there's no penalty if you say the Texans will rue the day they drafted the pizza boy JJ Watt other than embarrassment if people bust you on it.

The letter grades = dumb.

Giving your early thoughts on things based on what can be known at a particular time is cool and trying to find more information great, as long as you don't fall in love with your oh-too-early opinion or don't recognize the limitations of giving opinions at this time with the information that is available.
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Old 05-01-2013   #35
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

Stop........ can't say that Andre is the best.... information is incomplete, he hasn't played next season yet.

Can't say the Texans are the best team in the AFC South... they gotta play it out.

Can't say Kubiak is the worst coach in the NFL..... surely there will be a worst (worster??) coach some time in the future.

Don't make no sense to grade any of this until the end of time & after the final judgement (if there is such a thing).

Forget everything that happened before today, it don't matter. Incomplete information.
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Old 05-01-2013   #36
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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.... surely there will be a worst (worster??) ...
worse
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Old 05-02-2013   #37
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Stop........ can't say that Andre is the best.... information is incomplete, he hasn't played next season yet.

Can't say the Texans are the best team in the AFC South... they gotta play it out.

Can't say Kubiak is the worst coach in the NFL..... surely there will be a worst (worster??) coach some time in the future.

Don't make no sense to grade any of this until the end of time & after the final judgement (if there is such a thing).

Forget everything that happened before today, it don't matter. Incomplete information.
Why don't we give a Super Bowl trophy to the team that has the best off-season? If you actually look at pre-season predictions by *experts*, most of them are wildly wrong. One year, Peter King had the worst preseason predictions of media members who made predictions.

Make your predictions. Just don't pretend they mean anything. Why they play the games.

And for those who have track records, actually playing NFL football like Andre Johnson, your assessment may likely be more rational than judging guys who play in different systems on a lower level and not with the fit they will have in their new teams.

And as for people who say that Kubiak is the worst coach in the NFL, typically that doesn't happen to guys who win 12 regular season games. Or gets into the playoffs with a backup, backup low round pick rookie quarterback.

You can make your assessments based on facts. But putting letter grades on things is sort of juvenile, no? It is done because readers like affirmation or anger about grades, and editors give readers what they want.
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Old 05-02-2013   #38
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post

Make your predictions. Just don't pretend they mean anything. Why they play the games.


You can make your assessments based on facts. But putting letter grades on things is sort of juvenile, no? It is done because readers like affirmation or anger about grades, and editors give readers what they want.
I don't get your point on this.

No predictions mean anything. Record predictions...Stat predictions...game by game predictions...

Of course they have to play the games. Who thinks that they can make predictions and the games don't have to be played?

JMO, but complaining about draft grades is kinda of silly. It's just a projection. Does it really need to be said that a draft grade isn't the be all end all and doesn't write a players legacy in stone?

Draft grades and predictions are made because people like to talk and discuss football. Do people get mad or like to be affirmed in their thinking? Sure. But that can be said about any area of life.
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Old 05-02-2013   #39
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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You can make your assessments based on facts. But putting letter grades on things is sort of juvenile, no? It is done because readers like affirmation or anger about grades, and editors give readers what they want.
I guess that's one way to look at it.

But you can also look at it like this.

All these guys exist to give their opinions on football. Their job is to look at the teams and to say, "Hey, I think this team did pretty good with this pick but not so good with that pick." Putting a letter grade on it is the same thing as a critic putting a "star grade" on a movie.

It doesn't matter one way or another in reality. Roger Ebert not liking a movie didn't make it a bad movie and it didn't make that movie make more or less money in the long run. Because whether Roger Ebert liked a movie or not didn't mean anything.

It's the same with draft grades. They don't mean anything. But for a fan who doesn't get the chance to break down as much film as the Experts are supposed to or have the insights into the professional game the Experts are supposed to have, it gives them an early way to gauge how their draft went and to compare how the "experts" feel about their team's draft vs. other teams.

The fact that these grades are just a reflection of different people's opinions doesn't bother me. And I'm not sure why it seems to bother you.

I think everyone recognizes that the draft can't really be graded until the careers of the guys picked are nearing completion.
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Old 05-02-2013   #40
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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I think everyone recognizes that the draft can't really be graded until the careers of the guys picked are nearing completion.
Exactly. I don't get the beef.

It's just a prediction/projection based on opinion. It's just talk.

Hence the reason why everyone's grades and predictions are different.
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