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Old 04-29-2013   #1
Texans_Chick
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Default Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

My latest post:

My 2013 Texans draft grades for fans who hate draft grades

The short version is that everybody gets an incomplete because these dudes haven't played real man football yet.

LZ didn't do draft grades but gave his first impressions too:

My thoughts and an overview of every Houston Texans 2013 draft pick
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Old 04-29-2013   #2
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

Then this is for me, because I highly dislike draft grades. Except in 2011 when sports pundits graded the Texans with B's and C's, and CBS Sports judged JJ Watt a "questionable pick."
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Old 04-29-2013   #3
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

There's a difference between grading the draft and grading the players.
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Old 04-29-2013   #4
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

Classic...



I'm sure we'll see this, in some form or other, many more times.
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Old 04-29-2013   #5
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
There's a difference between grading the draft and grading the players.
So are you saying you can do one without doing the other??
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Old 04-29-2013   #6
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

The problem with draft grades in general is that they treat the actual event...the real player selection meeting as though its results are wrong based on the months of seclation. the event is not wrong the specualtion about the event and what teams could have accomplished is incorrect. If player x is graded as a y round playr, but goes in z round, he is z rounder not a y rounder.
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Old 04-29-2013   #7
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

Predraft is all about smoke screens, deception, and lies...after the draft we apply a value to it all like star and smiley stickers the kindergarten teacher used to pass out. You either think player x is going to be good or think it's a wasted opportunity on getting someone else.

I understand summarizing a team's draft as good or bad...but applying a letter grade to players who haven't suited up since january sounds a little silly unless someone out there's Miss Cleo.

I give this draft 1 smiley sticker and 5 extra minutes at recess.
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Old 04-30-2013   #8
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Originally Posted by ObsiWan View Post
So are you saying you can do one without doing the other??
Grading the draft is really about grading their risk analysis. You won't know the outcome of the risk until later, but if they take a 99% proposition 100 times, the one failure doesn't invalidate the process.

Things to consider - is the risk of having to piece together a solution at ILB worth taking Trevardo Williams in the 4th round? Or Montgomery in the third? How does the risk of Da'Rick Rogers being a screw-up weigh against his outstanding physical talents vs. the need for a playmaker at the WR position on this team before the window closes? Or Montgomery's physical talent vs. character concerns?

Montgomery is interesting to think about in this manner. The Texans hit on a player that has first round talent in the third round. They had the stones to take him, despite the knocks on him from other teams. Whether he fails or succeeds as a player doesn't really affect the draft process. It's how he fails, if he does. If he fails because he ends up being not a very good football player, well, that's life in the NFL. It happens all the time. However, if he fails because of character concerns, then that was a crappy pick.

Another good draft day example is Amobi Ok0ye. He was a young player that had physical talent, smarts, and lots of room to improve. But could the team, at that point in their development, afford to take on a project with a first round pick? I say no, and that's why that was a terrible first round pick. That he failed, or at best became JAG, is a sideline to whether the pick was good or not. The pick, or the process, is also graded by what else was available at that point, how it fit the team's needs, how the prospect was graded, etc.

Obviously, we don't have access to 99% of the info that the Texans have, so it's all speculation from the fans anyway, but that's what we do as fans, because baseball season sucks. I just prefer to speculate and try to grade their risk analysis and draft process rather than the players. The players will be graded by their play on the field. I also recognize that other people probably don't think about this the same way I do, and that's fine. But they're wrong.
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Old 04-30-2013   #9
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

never mind....
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Old 04-30-2013   #10
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

A portion of these guys are cut in training camp. Depth for one team may be a starter for another. Injuries, coaching changes, scheme fits, a specific skill set in demand with a limited supply, etc. How does a player cut by one team who then plays great for another one grade for the drafting team? It's all fluid and a lot of it is subjective. Player x is a reach at the top of the second round but great value at the bottom of the second round? The team gets crucified for picking player x that early but had no chance in hell to get him in the 3rd so wtf?

"Value" is the most abused sentiment on draft weekend. About the only thing I know for certain is I dont want Charley freaking Casserly anywhere near the Texans draft room.
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Old 04-30-2013   #11
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

We've all been around long enough to know we probably won't know the full value of most of these players for a couple of years anyway. We all also know that doesn't take the fun out of assigning grades and opinions to the process.
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Old 04-30-2013   #12
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Originally Posted by Thorn View Post
We've all been around long enough to know we probably won't know the full value of most of these players for a couple of years anyway. We all also know that doesn't take the fun out of assigning grades and opinions to the process.
^^^ This.

Odds are that we get one first year starter out of this bunch and the 6th rounders might not even make the team.

Right now, all the toys are fresh and shiny so we might as well enjoy their potential and promise.
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Old 04-30-2013   #13
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
Grading the draft is really about grading their risk analysis. You won't know the outcome of the risk until later, but if they take a 99% proposition 100 times, the one failure doesn't invalidate the process.

Things to consider - is the risk of having to piece together a solution at ILB worth taking Trevardo Williams in the 4th round? Or Montgomery in the third? How does the risk of Da'Rick Rogers being a screw-up weigh against his outstanding physical talents vs. the need for a playmaker at the WR position on this team before the window closes? Or Montgomery's physical talent vs. character concerns?

Montgomery is interesting to think about in this manner. The Texans hit on a player that has first round talent in the third round. They had the stones to take him, despite the knocks on him from other teams. Whether he fails or succeeds as a player doesn't really affect the draft process. It's how he fails, if he does. If he fails because he ends up being not a very good football player, well, that's life in the NFL. It happens all the time. However, if he fails because of character concerns, then that was a crappy pick.

Another good draft day example is Amobi Ok0ye. He was a young player that had physical talent, smarts, and lots of room to improve. But could the team, at that point in their development, afford to take on a project with a first round pick? I say no, and that's why that was a terrible first round pick. That he failed, or at best became JAG, is a sideline to whether the pick was good or not. The pick, or the process, is also graded by what else was available at that point, how it fit the team's needs, how the prospect was graded, etc.

Obviously, we don't have access to 99% of the info that the Texans have, so it's all speculation from the fans anyway, but that's what we do as fans, because baseball season sucks. I just prefer to speculate and try to grade their risk analysis and draft process rather than the players. The players will be graded by their play on the field. I also recognize that other people probably don't think about this the same way I do, and that's fine. But they're wrong.


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Old 04-30-2013   #14
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
There's a difference between grading the draft and grading the players.
They are two different exercises. I graded each player and at the top of the post, I gave a A+ smiley face star for the whole draft.

Both of the exercises are silly.

Draft grades are a fiction depending on so much stuff that hasn't happened and isn't a fixed future.

Charles Spencer may have been an awesome left tackle if he didn't get Ron Dayned.

Was that a bad pick because of a fluke injury?

You make your picks, and hope for the best. Putting letter grades on drafts is sort of silly but is great if you crave affirmation or get grumbly from what outsiders say.

For me, I really do like trying to figure out reasoning/fit but ultimately want these guys to have a clean start, removed from where they were drafted and how much or little money they make, and just assess them based on what they do as a Houston Texan.
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Old 04-30-2013   #15
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Originally Posted by ObsiWan View Post
Classic...



I'm sure we'll see this, in some form or other, many more times.
I figured at some point, somebody would make it an avatar because there are certain pet issues that annoy people irrationally.
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Old 04-30-2013   #16
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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I knew it!
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Old 04-30-2013   #17
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
My latest post:

My 2013 Texans draft grades for fans who hate draft grades

The short version is that everybody gets an incomplete because these dudes haven't played real man football yet.

LZ didn't do draft grades but gave his first impressions too:

My thoughts and an overview of every Houston Texans 2013 draft pick
Going to disagree. At this point, all draftees are based on potential of how teams think they will translate to NFL. Draft grades are based on how folks think teams did evaluating players' college skills + where the players were drafted (value) based on known info. It is not a grade necessarily on how the player will play. If you say they cannot be graded as not playing yet then certain positions like CB, WR, LT or QB should be given only an incomplete for 3 years. How do you grade a QB like Aaron Rodgers who sits behind the starter?

Not attacking you Steph or Lance but why not allow folks to do what they want? It reminds me of those going into mock draft forum and then complain that folks should not do mocks.
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Old 04-30-2013   #18
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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Not attacking you Steph or Lance but why not allow folks to do what they want? It reminds me of those going into mock draft forum and then complain that folks should not do mocks.
Because ...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texans_Chick View Post
Both of the exercises are silly.
There.
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Old 04-30-2013   #19
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

I don't grade a draft, but I don't think it's silly that others do.

Even if what they do is silly, it's silly not to let other people do their silly things for fun.
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Old 04-30-2013   #20
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Default Re: Draft grades for those who don't like draft grades

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I don't grade a draft, but I don't think it's silly that others do.

Even if what they do is silly, it's silly not to let other people do their silly things for fun.
That is just silly but exactly correct.
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