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Old 04-29-2013   #181
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Default Re: 1st Round- DeAndre Hopkins WR Texans

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
I think there may be a perception problem here:

Percentage of attempts AJ targeted:

2008 30.7%
2009 28.7%
2010 29.6%
2012 30.1%

I left off 2007 and 2011 because AJ missed substantial time.

That is a flat line the entire time AJ and Schaub have worked together.

I agree with TPN that trust is key to Hopkins' season but I wouldn't look for a lot of targets being pulled from AJ.

Not as a prediction but I looked at AJ's rookie numbers and it is incredible he got 976 yards with Carr at QB and a passing attack with a whopping 2600 yds.
Confused by your numbers. Not sure where they are from?

http://blog.chron.com/ultimatetexans...andre-johnson/

Quote:
Statistically, it’s easy to show why the Texans need this. ESPN’s AFC South blogger Paul Kuharsky collected these numbers from ESPN Stats and Info:

The Texans were one of four NFL teams that targeted one receiver more than all the rest combined, along with the Lions, Chiefs and Bears.
Johnson was targeted on 58.1 percent of the Texans’ pass attempts to receivers, the highest rate in the league.
Quarterback Matt Schaub’s completion percentage was 70.9 to Johnson with 31.6 attempts per interception. Meanwhile, his completion percentage to every other receiver on his roster was 56.5 with 21.6 attempts per interception.
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Old 04-29-2013   #182
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Default Re: 1st Round- DeAndre Hopkins WR Texans

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Confused by your numbers. Not sure where they are from?

http://blog.chron.com/ultimatetexans...andre-johnson/
I think one set of numbers is based on all passing attempts, while one is attempts to just receivers.
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Old 04-29-2013   #183
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Default Re: 1st Round- DeAndre Hopkins WR Texans

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Confused by your numbers. Not sure where they are from?
Different stat. That is % targets to WR's. In terms of the issue of fixating on AJ I think that is irrelevant. This discussion is about is Schaub looking at all his receiving options. Our system since OD has been here has always targeted OD and the TE's highly. Now Hopkins may shift the WR numbers some away from the TE's and RB's but I bet AJ still gets his 30%.

Stats are from ESPN.

By the way is it surprising AJ, CJ and Brandon Marshall get targeted a lot?
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Old 04-29-2013   #184
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Default Re: 1st Round- DeAndre Hopkins WR Texans

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Hmm, weird. I guess it just seemed like he forced it a lot more towards the end of the season. You'd think with all the coverage that gets rolled to wherever AJ lines up there'd be an open man somewhere. Hence the reason we drafted a WR in the 1st.

Don't mind me, I'm just babbling. Asking and answering my questions
Remember the first 7 or 8 games, people forgot about Dre... we weren't getting him the ball for one reason or another. Then he turned it on. There was a definite "Forced it to Dre" feel to the last 4 or 5 games.

But, we were asking for those guys to step up....... Dre included & I think that would entail some forcing. It's all semantics.

But, it's been correctly stated here, overall Schaub is pretty good about spreading the ball around. Go back & read a couple of TCs blogs. This year was an abnormally bad year for the Texans catch rate. There was some definite trust issues that came to bear at the wrong time.

Hopefully another full season with Graham playing significant minutes, the absence of "Drops a sure fire TD in the endzone that could have changed the game" Casey..... schaub will spread it around & open this thang up.
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Old 04-29-2013   #185
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Default Re: 1st Round- DeAndre Hopkins WR Texans

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Confused by your numbers. Not sure where they are from?
Quote:
The Texans were one of four NFL teams that targeted one receiver more than all the rest combined, along with the Lions, Chiefs and Bears.
Johnson was targeted on 58.1 percent of the Texans’ pass attempts to receivers, the highest rate in the league.
http://blog.chron.com/ultimatetexans...andre-johnson/
That's one of the things you'll fail to grasp, if you're using the eyeball test. Basically it says that Schaub checks down to RBs & TEs less than most QBs in the league, particularly, Stafford, Cutler, & whoever suited up for KC.
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Old 04-29-2013   #186
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Default Re: 1st Round- DeAndre Hopkins WR Texans

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Different stat. That is % targets to WR's. In terms of the issue of fixating on AJ I think that is irrelevant. This discussion is about is Schaub looking at all his receiving options. Our system since OD has been here has always targeted OD and the TE's highly. Now Hopkins may shift the WR numbers some away from the TE's and RB's but I bet AJ still gets his 30%.

Stats are from ESPN.

By the way is it surprising AJ, CJ and Brandon Marshall get targeted a lot?
KW had 41 receptions last year. If Hopkins quickly picks up the playbook and learns his routes and doesn't put the ball on the field (unlike Martin and Posey), I expect him to get KWs numbers from last year. At least. If he really progresses, he could also pick up some of Casey's targets.

But I expect him to quickly grow into the numbers KW had at his peak, if not progress past them.

And if Hopkins can start putting up some big numbers, I expect AJ to start putting up some bigger numbers as teams try to get sneaky in trying to cover both of them.
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Old 04-29-2013   #187
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Default Re: 1st Round- DeAndre Hopkins WR Texans

Who has more receiving TDs in 2013 ...... Andre or DeAndre???
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Old 04-29-2013   #188
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Default Re: 1st Round- DeAndre Hopkins WR Texans

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Remember the first 7 or 8 games, people forgot about Dre... we weren't getting him the ball for one reason or another. Then he turned it on. There was a definite "Forced it to Dre" feel to the last 4 or 5 games.

But, we were asking for those guys to step up....... Dre included & I think that would entail some forcing. It's all semantics.

But, it's been correctly stated here, overall Schaub is pretty good about spreading the ball around. Go back & read a couple of TCs blogs. This year was an abnormally bad year for the Texans catch rate. There was some definite trust issues that came to bear at the wrong time.

Hopefully another full season with Graham playing significant minutes, the absence of "Drops a sure fire TD in the endzone that could have changed the game" Casey..... schaub will spread it around & open this thang up.
It's still perception.
Early in the season, the team was doing well on both sides of the ball
We didn't need AJ; instead, we gave the ball to Foster to close out games.

In the second half, we weren't ahead anywhere close to the beginning of the season, we needed to go to the air more.
In the first eleven games, AJ averaged a little over 9 targets a game.
In the next 4 games, he averaged 10.
It was only the last game that he saw a whole bunch of targets.

In the playoffs, his number went back to the norm while O.D.'s number escalated and even exceeded AJ's by a healthy margin.

Overall, there was no noticeable trend.
It was just normal game situation; pass rush/protection; how the opponent chose to defend/cover, among other things.

Sometimes I wished we had attacked more with AJ against a certain defense but the Texans didn't.
But when I watched other NFL games, the same thing occurred; the other coaches didn't either.

Sometimes they do, but most often, they just run their offense.
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Old 04-29-2013   #189
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Default Re: 1st Round- DeAndre Hopkins WR Texans

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Actually, missed two game due to suspension at the being of the year and only one due to injury. he blantly regressed on the field and was no way a better football player than Hopkins in 2012.


http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/teams/ccl/stats
As I said, he was injured in 2012. It bothered him all year. I watch alot of ACC football, they talked about it before nearly every Clemson game.
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Old 04-29-2013   #190
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Default Re: 1st Round- DeAndre Hopkins WR Texans

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Old 04-29-2013   #191
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Default Re: 1st Round- DeAndre Hopkins WR Texans

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KW had 41 receptions last year. If Hopkins quickly picks up the playbook and learns his routes and doesn't put the ball on the field (unlike Martin and Posey), I expect him to get KWs numbers from last year. At least. If he really progresses, he could also pick up some of Casey's targets.

But I expect him to quickly grow into the numbers KW had at his peak, if not progress past them.

And if Hopkins can start putting up some big numbers, I expect AJ to start putting up some bigger numbers as teams try to get sneaky in trying to cover both of them.
I think he would have to be really special to get 41 catches. Or at least Kubiak & Schaub has to think he's special.

We'll probably see more of a rotation at that spot, with the reps LeStar & Martin have on Hopkins. Then, we'll probably see more 3 WRs instead of 2 TEs like we did last year.

So who knows?

But I think we'll see less total catches, but a higher YPC & that's what we need from that position to stretch the field.
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Old 04-29-2013   #192
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Default Re: 1st Round- DeAndre Hopkins WR Texans

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... we weren't getting him the ball for one reason or another.

.
It's all semantics.
Early in the season, the team was doing well on both sides of the ball
We didn't need AJ; instead, we gave the ball to Foster to close out games.

In the second half, we weren't ahead anywhere close to the beginning of the season, we needed to go to the air more.

Good....... we agree.
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Old 04-29-2013   #193
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Default Re: 1st Round- DeAndre Hopkins WR Texans

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I think he would have to be really special to get 41 catches. Or at least Kubiak & Schaub has to think he's special.

We'll probably see more of a rotation at that spot, with the reps LeStar & Martin have on Hopkins. Then, we'll probably see more 3 WRs instead of 2 TEs like we did last year.

So who knows?

But I think we'll see less total catches, but a higher YPC & that's what we need from that position to stretch the field.
Last year, there were 9 rookies that got over 41 catches. The year before, there were 7. The year before that, there were 8.

I expect Hopkins to be at least as good as Jordan Shipley was with the Bengals (52 catches his rookie year), a Titus Young with the Lions (48), a Doug Baldwin with the Seahawks (51), Chris Givens with the Rams (42), Michael Floyd with the Cards (45), T.Y. Hilton with the Colts (50).

His numbers might be decreased because he's NOT coming in and expected to be the #1 from Day 1 but I expect him to be one of the premier rookie WRs.

Whether he's going to live up to that expectation or not, that's the real question.
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Old 04-29-2013   #194
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Default Re: 1st Round- DeAndre Hopkins WR Texans

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Last year, there were 9 rookies that got over 41 catches. The year before, there were 7. The year before that, there were 8.
I meant he would have to be special to get 41 catches on this team with Kubiak & Schaub. Not that it's rare for a rookie WR to get 41 catches. Pretty much a continuation of the "trust" concersation we were having earlier.

Andre, OD, Arian, Graham..... then the scraps. Hopkins is going to have to earn Schaub's trust on those scraps before he moves up the pecking order.
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Old 04-29-2013   #195
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Default Re: 1st Round- DeAndre Hopkins WR Texans

HT.com link

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In a show of leadership, Schaub texted Hopkins after he was drafted on Thursday night around 10 p.m. CT.

“It’s very important (to do) for all the picks, but especially an early pick and being an offensive guy and someone that we’re going to be joined here for a while between me, him and ‘Dre (Andre Johnson) and Arian (Foster),” Schaub said. “So I just wanted to welcome him and let him know that there’s a lot of work ahead.”

Schaub said he was lying around at home after he texted Hopkins. He didn’t expect to get a call back at such a late hour amid the chaos Hopkins was dealing after being selected.

“The type of kid that he is, he called me back about five minutes later and we talked for about 10 minutes,” Schaub said. “Just shows his character and what he’s all about.”
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Old 04-29-2013   #196
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Default Re: 1st Round- DeAndre Hopkins WR Texans

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That's awesome man.

Im excited about this season again I'm I'm hoping that Schaub shows a little better late in the season.

But overall I think Hopkins is going to beast in this system. With the way he runs routes, if he can get his timing together he's going to see a lot of balls. When you made your initial prediction I said I had to think about it, and I do think he'd going to get at least 800 yards. I don't know about the TD's...that stuff is so unpredictable im our offense, but I think Hopkins is your day 1 starter opposite dre and I think he's a better receiver than Walter and jacoby were.
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Old 04-29-2013   #197
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Default Re: 1st Round- DeAndre Hopkins WR Texans

Barring injury, we're looking at a MINIMUM of 50/500/5. Book it.
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Old 04-29-2013   #198
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Default Re: 1st Round- DeAndre Hopkins WR Texans

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I think he would have to be really special to get 41 catches. Or at least Kubiak & Schaub has to think he's special.

We'll probably see more of a rotation at that spot, with the reps LeStar & Martin have on Hopkins. Then, we'll probably see more 3 WRs instead of 2 TEs like we did last year.

So who knows?

But I think we'll see less total catches, but a higher YPC & that's what we need from that position to stretch the field.
Rick perhaps? He's on record saying their looking for Hopkins to start opposite AJ day one. An "IMPACT PLAYER" in the first round is his motto. That's what I'm expecting out of the 27th pick on day one as well.

Guess we'll see.
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Old 04-30-2013   #199
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Default Re: 1st Round- DeAndre Hopkins WR Texans

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Rick perhaps? He's on record saying their looking for Hopkins to start opposite AJ day one. An "IMPACT PLAYER" in the first round is his motto. That's what I'm expecting out of the 27th pick on day one as well.

Guess we'll see.
I've got no doubt he'll start at WR2. Doesn't mean he'll get all the snaps. Kubiak has trust issues. Schaub has trust issues. & apparently it's pretty easy to get into Kube's doghouse.

Andre Davis should have started over Walter, didn't... & didn't get anywhere near 41 catches.

Honestly, I'd be happy if he can get 32 catches or so at 15+ a piece & 10 TDs. Solid, & promising.
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Old 04-30-2013   #200
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Default Re: 1st Round- DeAndre Hopkins WR Texans

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I've got no doubt he'll start at WR2. Doesn't mean he'll get all the snaps. Kubiak has trust issues. Schaub has trust issues. & apparently it's pretty easy to get into Kube's doghouse.

Andre Davis should have started over Walter, didn't... & didn't get anywhere near 41 catches.

Honestly, I'd be happy if he can get 32 catches or so at 15+ a piece & 10 TDs. Solid, & promising.
Eh, i think last year, we gave Martin, Jean and Posey the opportunity to step up by targeting them quite a bit early in the season... none of them really did although Posey started to flash consistently towards the end but then he got hurt. Had he not gotten hurt or 1 of the other guys flashed consistently, i think there's a strong possibility that Hopkins isn't here today.

I say that to say that Kubes will give him the opportunity to step up like he did with the others last year and give him plenty of short to mid-range targets early on. If he succeeds he'll start letting him leg it out a bit. I think he'll be fine.
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