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Old 04-20-2013   #101
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Default Re: Houston Texans 2013 Schedule Thread

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Tell me when the Texans have a D that can play four playoff games and hold their opponents to a total of 23 points.
If Reed makes as much of a difference as some think, and everyone else stays healthy, we may have a shot at it.
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Old 04-20-2013   #102
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Default Re: Houston Texans 2013 Schedule Thread

Schaub is far from elite, but he is much much better than your average QB. I'm OK with him, but I want him replaced with someone better soon.

You know, we could do worse than Schaub. Much worse.
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Old 04-20-2013   #103
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Default Re: Houston Texans 2013 Schedule Thread

The Texans can definitely do worse than Schaub. But he is not the type of QB that can take charge of any game without lots of top notched players around him making big plays unless there is a heavy dose of luck involved. Everyone else must be on their A game. That is the formula for a super bowl run involving Schaub.
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Old 04-20-2013   #104
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Default Re: Houston Texans 2013 Schedule Thread

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. But he is not the type of QB that can take charge of any game without lots of top notched players around him making big plays unless there is a heavy dose of luck involved. Everyone else must be on their A game.
Name me one who is? - seriously. Folks say this kind of stuff all the time but the fact is big games are won by teams. No doubt it is really cool to have an elite QB but even they don't win games by themselves. Roger Staubach didn't become a worse QB nor did Terry Bradshaw become a better QB because Jackie Smith dropped a spot on pass in the end zone. At the end of the day there has to be a Jerry Rice or Emmitt Smith and similar surrounding cast involved.
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Old 04-21-2013   #105
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Default Re: Houston Texans 2013 Schedule Thread

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and some games we tougher then what we thought

@ lions
vs Jags
@ jets


even the bills were a scrappy team that was in the game in the 4th qtr


so I don't know anymore !!!!!!!!!!!
None of those games should have been thought of as "easy wins"

The Lions were "supposed" to be up & comers. Farley played well, Suh was still a force. Defensively they finished 13th in total D. Stafford was still slinging the ball around, CJ was doing his thing, offensively they were 3rd in total yards, just weren't capitalizing on their drives. They were losing games the way we were in 2010. A good team that just couldn't put it all together.

The Jags & us are always going to have at least one good game.

& the Jets, like the Lions couldn't get out of their own way. But before the season, no one could have known it was going to be that bad. Next year, they might be able to turn it completely around. That's not a bad club; they just had some outside issues they didn't deal with very well. Sanchez got them to the AFC Championship game twice when the run game was pulling it's weight & the defense was feared.
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Old 04-21-2013   #106
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Default Re: Houston Texans 2013 Schedule Thread

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Name me one who is? - seriously. Folks say this kind of stuff all the time but the fact is big games are won by teams. No doubt it is really cool to have an elite QB but even they don't win games by themselves. Roger Staubach didn't become a worse QB nor did Terry Bradshaw become a better QB because Jackie Smith dropped a spot on pass in the end zone. At the end of the day there has to be a Jerry Rice or Emmitt Smith and similar surrounding cast involved.
We saw plenty of examples of that this year. When the Patriots played us, they couldn't do no wrong. Everybody was having a good game. Welker, Vareen, Riddley, Hernandez.

Then the very next week, not so much. Brady & Co struggled in SanFran & against the Ravens. Riddley dissappeared, Woodhead was out, Welker was human, & their defense was their usual defense & not the cocked full of Spinach Defense that we faced. They stepped their games up to play us.

Peyton Manning looked like a shell of himself in January.

Aaron Rogers lost more games than Schaub did in 2012.

Before either Patriots games, we all pretty much agreed, the running game was going to have to show up..... it didn't. The defense was going to have to show up...... it didn't. & Schaub was going to have to play clean.... for the most part he did. We didn't lose to New England because Schaub sucked.
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Old 04-22-2013   #107
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Default Re: Houston Texans 2013 Schedule Thread

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Name me one who is? - seriously. Folks say this kind of stuff all the time but the fact is big games are won by teams. No doubt it is really cool to have an elite QB but even they don't win games by themselves. Roger Staubach didn't become a worse QB nor did Terry Bradshaw become a better QB because Jackie Smith dropped a spot on pass in the end zone. At the end of the day there has to be a Jerry Rice or Emmitt Smith and similar surrounding cast involved.
2010 Brees. He had average players all around him he made better. Best player around him was Marques Colston and he only had like 70 receptions for just over 1k.

2005 Brady had Corey Dillon and...? Nothing else. Not even a receiver with 60 receptions or 1k in yards. His best receiver was David Givens.

2004 Brady had nothing. Top back was Antowain Smith with 642 yards. Top receiver Deion Branch with 57 receptions for 803 yards.

It's true teams win games which is why I don't look into quarterback wins as much as the media does. But the poster was most likely speaking to the fact that some quarterbacks raise the level of play of those around them and some need more talent around them to go the next level themselves. Schaub most likely fall is in the latter group.

Not sure this aversion to just admitting Schaub is who he is. It's not like it's a bad thing for him to need more talent around him. It's as if it means he is horrible. It's not. He's just not a top tier guy. Flacco isn't and he won a Superbowl. Why? Because of an influx of more talent around him. Not a bad thing.
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Old 04-22-2013   #108
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Default Re: Houston Texans 2013 Schedule Thread

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2010 Brees. He had average players all around him he made better. Best player around him was Marques Colston and he only had like 70 receptions for just over 1k.

2005 Brady had Corey Dillon and...? Nothing else. Not even a receiver with 60 receptions or 1k in yards. His best receiver was David Givens.

2004 Brady had nothing. Top back was Antowain Smith with 642 yards. Top receiver Deion Branch with 57 receptions for 803 yards.
How convenient you leave off the defenses in your discussion of it being a team sport. Wait how about the game planning by the coaches as well? I thought Belichick was a genius and regularly out coached others. And here I heard Sean Payton was designing an O to get the ball all over the field.

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Not sure this aversion to just admitting Schaub is who he is.
My comment was about trite truisms.
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Old 04-22-2013   #109
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Default Re: Houston Texans 2013 Schedule Thread

Matt Schaub is pretty much an average QB.

If you rank near a score of 50, according to the QBR stats (since we're supposed to be "all about the stats" around here), then you're an average QB.

For an explanation of what stats factor into a QBR ranking system, click HERE.

RK/PLAYER/QBR
1 Peyton Manning 84.1
2 Tom Brady 77.1
3 Colin Kaepernick 76.8
4 Matt Ryan 74.5
5 Aaron Rodgers 72.5
6 Robert Griffin III 71.4
7 Alex Smith 70.1
8 Russell Wilson 69.6
9 Drew Brees 67.9
10 Eli Manning 67.4
11 Andrew Luck 65.0
12 Ben Roethlisberger 62.8
13 Tony Romo 62.7
14 Matt Schaub 62.6


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Clutch Index
The final major step is to look at how "clutch" the situation was when creating expected points. A normal play has a clutch index of 1.0. For instance, first-and-goal from the 10-yard line in a tie game at the start of the second quarter has a clutch index of almost exactly 1.0. A more clutch situation, one late in the game when the game is close -- the same situation as above but midway through the fourth quarter, for example -- has a clutch index of about 2.0. Maximum clutch indices are about 3.0, and minimum indices are about 0.3.

These clutch index values came from an analysis of how different situations affect a game's win probability on average. One way to think of it is in terms of pressure. A clutch play is defined before the play by how close the game appears to be. Down four points with three seconds to go and facing third-and-goal from the 3-yard line -- that is a high-pressure and high-clutch index situation because the play can realistically raise the odds of winning to almost 100 percent or bring them down from about 40 percent to almost zero percent. The same situation from midfield isn't as high pressure because it's very unlikely that the team will pull out the victory. Sure, a Hail Mary can pull the game out, but if it doesn't work, the team didn't fail on that play so much as it failed before then. On third-and-goal from the 3-yard line, failure means people will be talking about that final play and what went wrong.

The clutch indices are multiplied by the quarterback's expected points on plays when the QB had a significant contribution, then divided by the sum of the clutch indices and multiplied by 100 to get a clutch-valued expected points added per 100 plays.

A Rating from 0 to 100
The final step is transforming the clutch-valued expected points rate to a number from 0 to 100. This is just a mathematical formula with no significance other than to make it easier to communicate. A value of 90 and above sounds good whether you're talking about a season, a game or just third-and-long situations; a value of four or 14 doesn't sound very good; a value of 50 is average, and that is what QBR generates for an average performance.

That being said, the top values in a season tend to be about 75 and above, whereas the top values in a game are in the upper 90s. Aaron Rodgers might have gone 31-of-36 for 366 yards, with three passing TDs, another TD running, 19 first-down conversions, and eight conversions on third or fourth down in one game -- for a single-game Total QBR of 97.2 -- but he can't keep that up all year long. Pro Bowl-level performance for a season usually means a QBR of at least 65 or 70. We don't expect to see a season with a QBR in the 90s.
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Old 04-22-2013   #110
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Default Re: Houston Texans 2013 Schedule Thread

Joe Flacco was ranked 25th in QBR.

Translation: Jacoby Jones is responsible for their Super Bowl.

Universe unraveled.
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Old 04-22-2013   #111
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Default Re: Houston Texans 2013 Schedule Thread

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
How convenient you leave off the defenses in your discussion of it being a team sport. Wait how about the game planning by the coaches as well? I thought Belichick was a genius and regularly out coached others. And here I heard Sean Payton was designing an O to get the ball all over the field.



My comment was about trite truisms.
Heh, I know you have this overly defensive thing about Schaub but I didn't conveniently leave off anything. The post you quoted was about Schaub needing pieces around him to perform better. That is offense. Not defense. Defense helps the team perform better (and win), not the quarterback except in the scales of getting the ball back to him often and in good field position. Still up to the QB and offense to do something with it...hence my post. Those guys performed offensively with little around them.

Schaub's performance is what is being pointed out to hide the issues he has in his game or make them less of an impact you need to get more playmakers/talent around him. As I said, there is nothing wrong with that. If he was a horrible quarterback then it wouldn't matter what talent you got around him, he would still find a way to not produce. That isn't the case.

You asked for one and they were named. Any point ever brought up could then have variables tossed on top of that as you are seemingly trying to do now. You didn't say 'name one with medicore coaches!'
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Old 04-22-2013   #112
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Default Re: Houston Texans 2013 Schedule Thread

I don't know if this has been mentioned (haven't read every post), but having looked more thoroughly at the schedule the thing I like the most (being in Austin) is having very little conflict with the Cowboys schedule.

Weeks four & six Houston will be on Fox against Seattle & St. Louis. However, the Cowboys will have a 3:25 start time against San Diego week four and a Sunday night matchup against Washington week six.

On the CBS side: The Cowboys will have a week five matchup against Denver, while Houston will be playing on NBC.

All good until the only possible game that might not be on television. Week thirteen is the only conflict. Both Dallas & Houston will be playing on CBS at 3:25. Dallas plays Oakland, while Houston will square-off against the New England Patriots. No way the Patriots game isn't shown, right???
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Old 04-22-2013   #113
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Default Re: Houston Texans 2013 Schedule Thread

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Matt Schaub is pretty much an average QB.
62.6 > 50. And not just a little. "A little" would be about 4-5 points plus or minus. Therefore, Schaub is better than average and not just a little. And if this is for 2012, I don't think anyone would disagree that Schaub didn't have his greatest year. So Schaub is better than average even during a down year.
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Old 04-22-2013   #114
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Default Re: Houston Texans 2013 Schedule Thread

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All good until the only possible game that might not be on television. Week thirteen is the only conflict. Both Dallas & Houston will be playing on CBS at 3:25. Dallas plays Oakland, while Houston will square-off against the New England Patriots. No way the Patriots game isn't shown, right???
There isn't a conflict on this one because Dallas plays Oakland on Thanksgiving day while Texans will be playing New England on Sunday 12/1/
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Old 04-22-2013   #115
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Default Re: Houston Texans 2013 Schedule Thread

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There isn't a conflict on this one because Dallas plays Oakland on Thanksgiving day while Texans will be playing New England on Sunday 12/1/
Aha! I just went through the scheduling by week and didn't even notice a difference in days. Usually 3:30 games are only on Sundays so I assumed it was a Sunday afternoon game. So no conflicts with the Cowboys.
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Old 04-22-2013   #116
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Default Re: Houston Texans 2013 Schedule Thread

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/91...-fairness-mind

There is a method to NFL scheduling madness. Interesting read.
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