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Old 04-15-2013   #1
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Default Doppelmock 7.1: the planned last Doppelmock of the season

This will be my last Doppelnock of the season. The draft is next week and we are getting into the height of misinformation. Its time for me to step back, kick back, and enjoy the last couple of weeks of the draft season. I am noticing that as I get older and more responsibilities come up, I have less free time to devote to the mock process. It is not an easy process and typically takes me a couple of weeks to complete 1 mock.

With that said, i want say thanks to the wonderful comments I have been getting over the past couple of years. Yall have been instrumental in helping me focus on players I had not previously considered and updating me on information I had not yet heard. They say 2 heads are better than 1, well I say a community of draft prognosticators is better than one! Thank you for letting me be a part of this wonderful community!!!

As Bugs Bunny would say, "On with the show!"

TRADE: Texans trade #27 to Buffalo for Bills 2nd and 3rd round selections in 2013.

The more I look at this draft, the more I believe a trade down will happen. There are so many good players at #27 it would make sense to trade down and take one of them a little later. In this scenario, I am saying the Texans trade with the Buffalo Bills, but it could easily be the Jaguars, Eagles, or Cardinals, as well.

In my opinion, the Bills are desperate for a QB. I think there is a good possibility the Jags take Geno Smith #2 overall. Even if they don't, I think he is taken by the 15th selection. As I showed in an earlier analysis, there is a mean of 2-3 QBs taken in the first round every year(for the past 10 years or so). The Bills may feel they need to trade up to get the guy they want and prevent him going to the Jags, Eagles, or even Cardinals. Since this is a QB driven league, I think the Bills pull the trigger on the trade up in order to secure their guy:

27. Buffalo Bills draft Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse, 6'2, 223lbs, 5.06
Why Nassib? Couple of reasons: 1. Doug Marrone, the current head coach of the Bills, was also on the coaching staff at Syracuse who helped develop Nassib. 2. Bills fans may want to grab the home town guy in order to inject interest into the fan base. I think at the end of the day, Geno Smith, EJ Manuel, and Ryan Nassib will go in the first round.


2.(Bills) Robert Woods, WR USC 6'1, 201lbs, 4.51
Woods is a big play WR. He has good speed, good hands, and looks to be further and further away form his ankle injury. He immediately slots in as the #2 WR next to AJ. However, he still has the potential to be a good #1 when AJ decides to hang it up. Good character guy as well.

2(Texans) Jamie Collins, OLB, Southern Miss, 6'3, 250lbs, 4.64
Texans could use another OLB and Collins would be a great fit. He had 92 tackles with 10 sacks, 20 tackles for a loss, 5 passes batted and 4 forced fumbles in 2012. In 2011 he had 98 tackles with 19.5 tackles for a loss, 6.5 sacks, 8 passes broken up, 1 forced fumble and 1 interception. He is strong against the run, can generate sacks, and also has a knack for making plays with his hands. He would fit very well into the rotation with Reed and Mercilus. Texans could use another OLB and Collins has the chops to become a part of the rotation.

3 (Bills) Brandon Williams, NT, Missouri Southern, 6'1, 341lbs, 5.23
If Williams had played at the University of Missouri rather than Missouri Southern, he would have been a second rounder for sure. Playing and dominating against inferior competition only gets you so far. Sure he did well at the combine and senior game, but he never faced the elite SEC OL for extended looks. Williams has a good blend of size and speed. He probably wouldn't get to start right away, but he would provide rotational help right away. I believe he would win the starting job by the end of the season. Unlike Cody or Mitchell, Williams has the size and strength to take on double teams, yet the speed and athleticism to shoot the gaps.

3. (Texans)Jordan Mills, OT, Louisiana Tech, 6'5, 316lbs, 5.37
People here know I am not enamored with Newton. Now that he is coming off a major knee injury, the Texans RT other options include Ryan Harris and Andrew Gardner. Personally, I think RT is an important position and as such, I grab, Jordan Mills. Whenever people think of Louisiana Tech they immediately think of their prolific WR Patton. They tend to forget about the guy who paved the way for the running game and protected the QB, so that Patton could run his routes. In the senior bowl Mills held his own against speed rushers, bull rushers, and combos. He improved every practice and showed a mean streak. He was a high motor kind of guy. Would be able to come in and compete for the backup spot with Harris and Garner. If Newton has a prolonged injury, he may even be starting material.

3(Compensatory ) Cooper Taylor, S/ILB Richmond, 6'5, 235lbs, 4.69
Some may say this is too high, but I think he would be worth it. Taylor is a massive safety with great lateral movement, is a strong tackler, and has good hands. I think he is too big to play as a safety in the NFL. However, he would be an excellent Joker. For those unfamiliar, a Joker is essentially an extra safety who plays down near the LBs. The Joker essentially allows a Defense to keep an extra saftey up close to help with intermediate throws and runs in order to take pressure off the DBs. Taylor's 77 tackles, 5 tackles for a loss, 9 passes broken up, 3 forced fumbles and 4 interceptions in 2012 suggest to me he would be perfect in this role. He could be a 3 down Joker and could play a step behind Cush on the TE side. He would be a tackling machine next to Cush have the lateral movement to get to the edge, and strong/fast enough to deal with the TEs coming over the middle. With the use of more athletic TEs, teams are needing to find a way to stop them. Most ILB are simply too slow or unatheletic enough to deal with these players. As such, teams are beginning to look into Jokers or an additional safety to take on these bigger TEs. Taylor could be the Texans Joker.

4. Marcus Davis, WR, Virginia Tech, 6'3, 233lbs, 4.56
For the fourth round, I go right back to WR. With Woods, I have a decent sized, good speed, good hands playmaker. With Davis, I have a big WR target with deceptive speed, and good hands. He presents a very nice target and would be a great #2 receiver down the line. Initially he could play on special teams and in 4 deep sets. However as he gets a hold of the playbook and as the Texans begin to limit AJ's reps, he could find the field. Woods would move to the #1 WR spot and Davis the #2 spot. Martin would continue in the slot.

5.Quanterus Smith, OLB, Western Kentucky, 6'5 249lbs, 4.69
I know he tore his ACL, but he is a special player. He had 12.5 sacks in 2012, 38 tackles with 18.5 tackles for a loss and 3 forced fumbles prior to injury. He schooled my boy Alabama OT DJ Fluker. In 2011 he had 7.5 sacks, 38 tackles and 11 tackles for a loss. He had 47 tackles with four sacks in 2010. He probably needs to IR the whole year(which is actually good as it will help with roster selection). However, next year when healthy he will be chomping at the bit and be ready to add another pass rusher to the group of Reed, Mercilus, and Collins. You can never have enough top level pass rushers on the team or on the field.

6.Dennis Johnson, RB/KR/PR, Arkansas, 5'9, 213lbs, 4.54
A solidly built player with good hands and quickness. He would be a great 3rd back for the Texans. He immediately takes over the role vacated by Justin Forsett. He ran for 757 yards with a nice 5.5ypc average with 8 rushing touchdowns, 25 receptions for160 yards and 2 receiving touchdowns in 2012. The other value he brings is in special teams. He is a fantastic returner and averaged 24.3 yards per return with three touchdowns over the past 3 years at Arkansas. By having him as the KR/PR it would allow Martin to focus solely on becoming the best slot receiver he can be and it would keep Manning away from extra hits he would take as a returner.

6. Prentiss Waggner, CB/S, Tennessee, 6-2, 185lbs, 4.58
A combo DB who played half the year as a CB and half as a Safety. The place he shined was as a deep CF safety. Seeing that the Texans just signed possibly the best ever CF safety, Waggner could be a great pick. He would start out on special teams and would get extra tuition from Reed. When Reed is ready to hang it up, Waggner would be ready to go.

7. Elvis Fisher, OT, Missouri, 6'5, 300lbs, 5.25
This is a pick that is low risk, high reward. He was the starting LT in 2008 as a freshman and was an All Big XII honorable mention. He was an All-Big XII honorable mention at left tackle in 2009 and 2010. In 2010 he had his best season as the blind side protector for Blaine Gabbert. In one of the biggest games of the year he completely shutout Adrian Clayborn. Big things were expected and he was touted as a possible first rounder. Unfortunately for him he ruptured his pateller tendon in 2011 and was gone for the whole season. he received a medical red shirt and came back in 2012. He ended up with an MCL injury that kept him out 3 games. Like Smith, he likely needs to spend the year on the IR. However, in a year he may be good enough to compete for the starting RT spot with Newton and Mills. Pre-injury he was a definite OT starter. If he can return to that, the Texans have another quality RT candidate at a ridiculously low price! If he doesn't make it, he's a 7th round pick. No big deal.
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Old 04-15-2013   #2
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Default Re: Doppelmock 7.1: the planned last Doppelmock of the season

Rick Smith is that you

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Old 04-15-2013   #3
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Default Re: Doppelmock 7.1: the planned last Doppelmock of the season

Nicely done.
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Old 04-15-2013   #4
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Default Re: Doppelmock 7.1: the planned last Doppelmock of the season

Good mock. Not familar with all the players there, but like the positions chosen.
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Old 04-15-2013   #5
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Default Re: Doppelmock 7.1: the planned last Doppelmock of the season

Love the top five picks.

I like Marcus Davis, too; however, since we've already taken a receiver, I figure maybe we'd go with an ILB here; the guy from A&M (Porter?) or A J Klein or Kevin Reddick (UNC) or whomever you like at the position.

I'm fine with Smith in the next spot.

As for the rest, I'm OK with the guys but I'd have liked for us to take a chance on some playmakers.

If Davis is still on board late, fine, you can go with him; otherwise, there could be a guy like Mark Harrison (Rutgers) or the guy from Florida St.
At safety, for example, I would look to see if Cody Davis is still available, if not I'd like Dexter McCoil.
There are a couple of RBs that may last until late (neither got picked in the Mock Draft so I won't divulge their names yet, LOL.

Those would fill up the last 3 spots; I don't think we should take another OT since Mondek and Gardner are already on the team.

Another possibility is to double dip on another ILB; the guy from UAB (Burdette) or the local guy from UH (Phillip Stewart).
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Old 04-15-2013   #6
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Default Re: Doppelmock 7.1: the planned last Doppelmock of the season

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Originally Posted by Doppelganger View Post
TRADE: Texans trade #27 to Buffalo for Bills 2nd and 3rd round selections in 2013.

The more I look at this draft, the more I believe a trade down will happen. There are so many good players at #27 it would make sense to trade down and take one of them a little later. In this scenario, I am saying the Texans trade with the Buffalo Bills, but it could easily be the Jaguars, Eagles, or Cardinals, as well.
I agree that this would be a very good move for the Texans. I guess the question I have is, why would a team feel compelled to move up to the Texans pick to take a QB? None of the teams below the Texans (Broncos, Pats, Falcons, Niners, Ravens) are in the market for a QB.
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Old 04-16-2013   #7
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Default Re: Doppelmock 7.1: the planned last Doppelmock of the season

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I agree that this would be a very good move for the Texans. I guess the question I have is, why would a team feel compelled to move up to the Texans pick to take a QB? None of the teams below the Texans (Broncos, Pats, Falcons, Niners, Ravens) are in the market for a QB.
A lot of the teams early in the second round are in need of a QB. Buffalo (example) may want to jump ahead of Arizona to make sure they get the one they want. Also teams drafting project QB's like the ones in this draft may prefer to have the player under a 5 year contract that comes with the first round pick rather than the 4 year one that comes with the second round pick.
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Old 04-16-2013   #8
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Default Re: Doppelmock 7.1: the planned last Doppelmock of the season

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A lot of the teams early in the second round are in need of a QB. Buffalo (example) may want to jump ahead of Arizona to make sure they get the one they want. Also teams drafting project QB's like the ones in this draft may prefer to have the player under a 5 year contract that comes with the first round pick rather than the 4 year one that comes with the second round pick.
OK, but that doesn't explain why they trade up to the Texans spot and not the Packers, Broncos, or more logically, the Ravens. I would think a team in the 2nd round looking for a d-lineman or DB would make mode sense as a trading partner, as those are the positions the teams behind the Texans are likely targeting.
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Old 04-16-2013   #9
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Default Re: Doppelmock 7.1: the planned last Doppelmock of the season

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OK, but that doesn't explain why they trade up to the Texans spot and not the Packers, Broncos, or more logically, the Ravens. I would think a team in the 2nd round looking for a d-lineman or DB would make mode sense as a trading partner, as those are the positions the teams behind the Texans are likely targeting.
Yep, if a team like Miaimi misses out on the top 3 OT's, I could see them taking Rhodes @ 12 and then trading back into the bottom of the 1st rd and taking Armstead or Watson.
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Old 04-16-2013   #10
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Default Re: Doppelmock 7.1: the planned last Doppelmock of the season

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OK, but that doesn't explain why they trade up to the Texans spot and not the Packers, Broncos, or more logically, the Ravens. I would think a team in the 2nd round looking for a d-lineman or DB would make mode sense as a trading partner, as those are the positions the teams behind the Texans are likely targeting.
We are at the end of the round. If we were willing to trade down, Why not trade up with the Texans? You asked, I responded with a couple of scenerio's. And there are plenty more. All it takes is for a team to fall in love with a player or have a need for a player at a specific position that gets hit early and an opportunity to present itself.

Opportunities will probably be harder to come by in this draft because of the even talent level through the late second round, but that doesn't mean there won't be any.
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Old 04-16-2013   #11
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Default Re: Doppelmock 7.1: the planned last Doppelmock of the season

Of course there will be trades but anybody who presumes to know, really doesn't know they only hope they know. Best staying away from trade down or up prognostications & stick with player evaluation on a graded scale (based mostly on game film/College production) inline with team needs. Nobody other than people actually associated with Texans know this team as well as it's own fans
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Old 04-16-2013   #12
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Default Re: Doppelmock 7.1: the planned last Doppelmock of the season

Oh yeh about this mock, IT SUCKS I HATE IT!!!!! At least that was my initial reaction after a quick look over. After I stepped back and took a better look I think the best word to describe it is SOLID! I have been focusing on a certain group of players and have developed favorites that I have locked onto in my head. However after thinking about these guys for a minute I realized, these are all solid solid guys and this would be a very good draft. None are flashy just solid.

Woods, kinda been an after though for me. Don't know why. He is a solid WR. Does everything well. Reminds me of Reggie Wayne. If he turns out anything like Wayne this is a steal.

Collins, another guy I really like but for whatever reason he just hasn't been At the top of my list. Solid pick if available at this point. Could see him making a contrabution early.

Brandon Williams another super solid guy that would be a steal at this point. He is one of my list guys.

Jordan mills. Maybe a little high IMO for him but again nice solid player for this offense.

Cooper Taylor again maybe a little high for my taste, because of medical, speed and the fact that he is somewhat of a tweener. If wade wants this type a player though he would be a good choice.

Davis love this pick. Great value here

Smith again love this pick here

The rest I could live with but have really locked into a few guys I really want In The late rounds.

Overall very good hall.
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Old 04-16-2013   #13
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Default Re: Doppelmock 7.1: the planned last Doppelmock of the season

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Rick Smith is that you

Always enjoy your work, time & creative spirit. Best of the best!
Thank you sir, much appreciated!

Look forward to breaking down the real picks with you after the Draft!!! Hopefully there will be more and fewer
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Old 04-16-2013   #14
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Default Re: Doppelmock 7.1: the planned last Doppelmock of the season

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Nicely done.
Thank you! I am glad you liked it!!!
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Old 04-16-2013   #15
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Default Re: Doppelmock 7.1: the planned last Doppelmock of the season

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Good mock. Not familar with all the players there, but like the positions chosen.
Thanks! One of the things I have enjoyed about the mock draft process is that I learn about a lot of players. When others come up with players I don't know it makes me go back and learn about them!
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Old 04-16-2013   #16
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Default Re: Doppelmock 7.1: the planned last Doppelmock of the season

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Love the top five picks.

I like Marcus Davis, too; however, since we've already taken a receiver, I figure maybe we'd go with an ILB here; the guy from A&M (Porter?) or A J Klein or Kevin Reddick (UNC) or whomever you like at the position.

I'm fine with Smith in the next spot.

As for the rest, I'm OK with the guys but I'd have liked for us to take a chance on some playmakers.

If Davis is still on board late, fine, you can go with him; otherwise, there could be a guy like Mark Harrison (Rutgers) or the guy from Florida St.
At safety, for example, I would look to see if Cody Davis is still available, if not I'd like Dexter McCoil.
There are a couple of RBs that may last until late (neither got picked in the Mock Draft so I won't divulge their names yet, LOL.

Those would fill up the last 3 spots; I don't think we should take another OT since Mondek and Gardner are already on the team.

Another possibility is to double dip on another ILB; the guy from UAB (Burdette) or the local guy from UH (Phillip Stewart).
One of the things with this draft is there are a lot of picks. Having a lot of picks means needing to find spots for all of the players. One of the reasons I went with Smith and Fisher were that they had incredibly high upside. Both of them easily could have been second rounders had it not been for injury. The other reason I took them was because they were coming off injury and could be stashed on IR for the year. They would be on the IR and not count against the cap. If they could rediscover their previous pre-injury form, they would be impact players. Smith would be a high level pass rusher and Fisher would be a high level RT. Its a low risk high reward proposition. Their floor may be low, but their ceiling is super high.
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Old 04-16-2013   #17
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Default Re: Doppelmock 7.1: the planned last Doppelmock of the season

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One of the things with this draft is there are a lot of picks. Having a lot of picks means needing to find spots for all of the players. One of the reasons I went with Smith and Fisher were that they had incredibly high upside. Both of them easily could have been second rounders had it not been for injury. The other reason I took them was because they were coming off injury and could be stashed on IR for the year. They would be on the IR and not count against the cap. If they could rediscover their previous pre-injury form, they would be impact players. Smith would be a high level pass rusher and Fisher would be a high level RT. Its a low risk high reward proposition. Their floor may be low, but their ceiling is super high.
I hear ya', but injury in two consecutive years scared me.
Are those freak injuries for Fisher?
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Old 04-16-2013   #18
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Default Re: Doppelmock 7.1: the planned last Doppelmock of the season

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One of the things with this draft is there are a lot of picks. Having a lot of picks means needing to find spots for all of the players. One of the reasons I went with Smith and Fisher were that they had incredibly high upside. Both of them easily could have been second rounders had it not been for injury. The other reason I took them was because they were coming off injury and could be stashed on IR for the year. They would be on the IR and not count against the cap. If they could rediscover their previous pre-injury form, they would be impact players. Smith would be a high level pass rusher and Fisher would be a high level RT. Its a low risk high reward proposition. Their floor may be low, but their ceiling is super high.
Question, trade point wise our 4th, 5th and 6th should equal a second rounder. Do you think Smith would do that if a player he like was there? If so, is there a team that might do that deal with us?
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Old 04-16-2013   #19
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Default Re: Doppelmock 7.1: the planned last Doppelmock of the season

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Yep, if a team like Miaimi misses out on the top 3 OT's, I could see them taking Rhodes @ 12 and then trading back into the bottom of the 1st rd and taking Armstead or Watson.
Yes, Miami is the team I've heard more than a couple of time mentioned as the most likely to trade up to the Texans spot at 27.
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Old 04-16-2013   #20
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Default Re: Doppelmock 7.1: the planned last Doppelmock of the season

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Yes, Miami is the team I've heard more than a couple of time mentioned as the most likely to trade up to the Texans spot at 27.
Miami's second (#54) and third (#82) match pretty well with our #27. They also have another pick in each of those round making them maybe a bit more willing to trade up.

As Meatloaf sang "I would do anything for more second round picks". Well, I won't do that...
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