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Old 04-10-2013   #21
rmartin65
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Default Re: rmartin65 Final 2013 Mock

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65, the reason I am opposed to OT in first is I think Brennan Williams brings as much to table as Armstead as neither would be expected to start. Add in that BW should be a 3rd or some say a 4th and that settles it for me. There are just so many ways this draft could go and still bring in good players, I hope it will become one of the most satisfying drafts in Texans history.
This first year, sure, I dont see much of a difference. However, in the future Armstead should be a superior player.

However, the current backlash is making me reconsider my position. What to people think of-

1) Ohio State NT Johnathan Hankins
2) Marshal WR Aaron Dobson
3) Auburn OLB Corey Lemonier
3) South Carolina FS DJ Swearinger
4) Vanderbilt RB Zac Stacy
5) LSU OT Chris Faulk
6) South Florida ILB Sam Barrington
6) Rutgers WR Mark Harrison
7) DE Lawrence Okoye
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Old 04-10-2013   #22
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Default Re: rmartin65 Final 2013 Mock

I would say go with your gut, regardless what others say. Terron is ascending while Hankins is descending. Need wise it does make sense, but from a scouting perspective don't you have to go with player having most upside & value for position? We can wait for Louis Nix III next year once Rick Smith lands Ogletree hopefully & transform Texan defense into a terror -

Watt - Nix III - Smith
Reed - Cushing - Olgetree - Mercilus
Manning - Ed Reed
Joseph - Jackson
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Old 04-10-2013   #23
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Default Re: rmartin65 Final 2013 Mock

Personally, I feel that this is a draft in which a team should'nt have to reach from the Texans position onward.
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Old 04-10-2013   #24
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Default Re: rmartin65 Final 2013 Mock

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Personally, I feel that this is a draft in which a team should'nt have to reach from the Texans position onward.
The problem is that "reach" is defined by how you set up your draft board and how the pundits have set up their draft board.

When all that really counts is how the teams have set up their draft boards. And all 32 teams have way different boards than Mel Kiper's.
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Old 04-10-2013   #25
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Default Re: rmartin65 Final 2013 Mock

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The problem is that "reach" is defined by how you set up your draft board and how the pundits have set up their draft board.

When all that really counts is how the teams have set up their draft boards. And all 32 teams have way different boards than Mel Kiper's.
That is what I mean.
We're doing mock draft and we set up our own board.

rmartin felt that he reached somewhat and changed his mind.

Corrosion, on the other hand, seems dead-on believing that Short is the best BPA among the positions of need and he went for it.

Not that I agree with him, but he has that in mind, and I have to give him that.
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Old 04-10-2013   #26
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Default Re: rmartin65 Final 2013 Mock

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That is what I mean.
We're doing mock draft and we set up our own board.

rmartin felt that he reached somewhat and changed his mind.

Corrosion, on the other hand, seems dead-on believing that Short is the best BPA among the positions of need and he went for it.

Not that I agree with him, but he has that in mind, and I have to give him that.
It's like Tyson Alualu. When the Jags took him it was like... what?!?? I don't think I'd seen him go higher than the 2nd round and someone might have gotten accused of reaching for him there. BUT... the Jags had him that high on their board. You just can't predict something like that.

So... when you're doing a mock... what are you trying to do? Guess how the teams are going to pick? Or guess what player's relative values are? Or guess which players are really going to have great careers despite what the teams think?

Last year, I did a quick analysis on WRs, where they're picked vs. where they're mocked. The mockers are usually pretty good at figuring out which WRs are going to be drafted but they usually get all of them wrong wrt round. And the guys the teams draft high generally have better careers than the guys that get drafted low. Now. Granted. That could be because the teams have more invested in the higher pick but still.
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Old 04-10-2013   #27
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Default Re: rmartin65 Final 2013 Mock

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
That is what I mean.
We're doing mock draft and we set up our own board.

rmartin felt that he reached somewhat and changed his mind.

Corrosion, on the other hand, seems dead-on believing that Short is the best BPA among the positions of need and he went for it.

Not that I agree with him, but he has that in mind, and I have to give him that.
I am not necessarily changing my mind, just curious as to what others think of the revised mock. Personally, I like what I had. I think Armstead will be a stud in the NFL, and having not one but two stud tackles would be huge moving forward.

As for C and Short... I really enjoy getting C's thoughts. I think he has a real sense for this kind of stuff. However, I just dont think he is right here. I have no doubt that he will be an upgrade over Mitchell/Cody, but I dont think that he will be a difference maker in the NFL. Solid starter, but nothing special.
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Old 04-10-2013   #28
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Default Re: rmartin65 Final 2013 Mock

I loooooove swearinger. He's my favorite safety I've seen. I'd take him in the second or third because I think he's that good and I think someone would try to get him before our third.

If we got swearing I think he's the type of player your going to be wanting on the field more often.
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Old 04-10-2013   #29
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Default Re: rmartin65 Final 2013 Mock

In respond to both, I think that even as we do mock draft, we still need to consider the different systems each team employ, and therefore their own preference of the type of player they might be looking for.

An example is Duane Brown whom I actually "targeted" for the Texans.
It might be hard to explain here, but at the same time, I said the Texans kinda reached for him a little bit in term of BPA (at any position). But hey, our turn is up, and I had "pretty much" aligned my board with the Texans and so I was happy to get the guy I wanted, whom I thought would turn out better than some OTs drafted ahead of him.

This year, however, I don't have a single target in mind for the spot.
I can go best OT available, best WR available, best ILB available, best NT available. That guy will need to have the most "differential making" points among several candidates (and there could be a few different candidates at a certain spot.) I have to weigh the pros and cons of an Armstead, a Rodgers, a Hunter, a Short, a Hankins, a certain Wiliams, etc.
Which of these guys give the most pros and the fewest cons.
Which guy can make the most positive impact both short-term and long-term.

When you have that many guys (and the guys I mentioned aren't the only ones) I think it's best to go with the sure thing and not potential.

For the same reason, I still think it's best to trade out of the first round anyway you can. I will even consider trading our first for several late picks (even if it takes a few trade downs to get there.) The flyers toward the last third of the draft have such potential I wished we have 3 sixth round comp picks like we once hoped for.
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Old 04-10-2013   #30
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Default Re: rmartin65 Final 2013 Mock

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I loooooove swearinger. He's my favorite safety I've seen. I'd take him in the second or third because I think he's that good and I think someone would try to get him before our third.

If we got swearing I think he's the type of player your going to be wanting on the field more often.
Don't you wish we're in a position where people want to take Vaccaro and trade our pick so they can select him in exchange of two or three picks to take Swearinger and another safety or two?
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Old 04-10-2013   #31
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Default Re: rmartin65 Final 2013 Mock

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...This year, however, I don't have a single target in mind for the spot.
I can go best OT available, best WR available, best ILB available, best NT available. That guy will need to have the most "differential making" points among several candidates (and there could be a few different candidates at a certain spot.)...
Which of these guys give the most pros and the fewest cons.
Which guy can make the most positive impact both short-term and long-term.

When you have that many guys (and the guys I mentioned aren't the only ones) I think it's best to go with the sure thing and not potential.
Good post.

Now this is very reminiscent of a conversation I had on this board last year. You go on to say, however, to trade out of the first round, which, in this case I don't agree with simply because of the glut of talent the Texans can mine early in the draft out of need. That's not to negate BPA, though. I'm just saying that when you've reached a certain plateau, as the Texans have, i.e. contenders, you only need 1 or 2 pieces to complete the puzzle.

Anyway, back to my original point (and yours, as well), I firmly believe, unless you're drafting a QB or a CB, you're looking for an automatic starter in the 1st round, and in many cases the 2nd round, too. You hope like hell for any of the other rounds. The Mercilus pick? I wasn't horribly bent over it, because I knew Barwin would be leaving as soon as the drafted him, but it went against the Texans MO (for the first time in a long time) to draft a backup in the 1st.

This theory about taking OL in the first round just leaves me scratching my head, because anyone outside of Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher, Jonathan Cooper, Lane Johnson and DJ Fluker, are all going to be developmental guys. These other dudes will be gone by pick #27.

I'm just saying you don't want to have to polish anybody from the 1st round when you're looking to make a title run. And you're going to want to take someone in the 1st round, precisely because you're making a title run.

Having said that, it better be a combo of BPA and need...because the Texans don't need much, but what they need is glaring: ILB, WR, OLB, DT (To a lesser extent DT, because although Cody/Mitchell aren't world beaters, they are serviceable until Cody gets the boot and we draft DT high next year [unless we strike it rich this year]).
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Old 04-10-2013   #32
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Default Re: rmartin65 Final 2013 Mock

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I would say go with your gut, regardless what others say. Terron is ascending while Hankins is descending. Need wise it does make sense, but from a scouting perspective don't you have to go with player having most upside & value for position? We can wait for Louis Nix III next year once Rick Smith lands Ogletree hopefully & transform Texan defense into a terror -

Watt - Nix III - Smith
Reed - Cushing - Olgetree - Mercilus
Manning - Ed Reed
Joseph - Jackson
Feel like I need to say a few words in defense of my guy. Armstead is hot chili for folks who were not aware of chili. Not saying he is not going to be good because I think he is. He gets attention for doing well in the bowls against big boys...something that Hankins has done for two years. While both play blue collar positions in the trenches, I think LT is more "popular" than the steady play of nose.

Armstead's 4.65 40 at 306 lbs causes some to go gaga.
Hankin's 5.28 at 320 less than one second difference gets ho hum.

What almost no one on this board gets is Hankins rarely came out of games. Heck yeah he was tired late in games. I think this is big reason he has dropped to us. IMO, NT is priority position, OT is not. I am an Armstead fan, just not over Hankins.

BTW, this is the way the 3 Amigos discuss and process players for our mocks. We have remained friends for years despite our opinions. We say what we think is best for our Texans.
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Old 04-10-2013   #33
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Default Re: rmartin65 Final 2013 Mock

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Feel like I need to say a few words in defense of my guy. Armstead is hot chili for folks who were not aware of chili. Not saying he is not going to be good because I think he is. He gets attention for doing well in the bowls against big boys...something that Hankins has done for two years. While both play blue collar positions in the trenches, I think LT is more "popular" than the steady play of nose.

Armstead's 4.65 40 at 306 lbs causes some to go gaga.
Hankin's 5.28 at 320 less than one second difference gets ho hum.

What almost no one on this board gets is Hankins rarely came out of games. Heck yeah he was tired late in games. I think this is big reason he has dropped to us. IMO, NT is priority position, OT is not. I am an Armstead fan, just not over Hankins.

BTW, this is the way the 3 Amigos discuss and process players for our mocks. We have remained friends for years despite our opinions. We say what we think is best for our Texans.
Yes someone else gets it. He is a 3 down player despite his size.
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Old 04-10-2013   #34
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Don't you wish we're in a position where people want to take Vaccaro and trade our pick so they can select him in exchange of two or three picks to take Swearinger and another safety or two?
I'm wanting more and more to trade down...

Id hate to pass on a receiver I really want in the first, but I like Swope and I think Dobson is ok too. But the extra 2nd and possibly a 3rd or 4th would be worth it IMO.
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Old 04-10-2013   #35
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Default Re: rmartin65 Final 2013 Mock

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I'm wanting more and more to trade down...

Id hate to pass on a receiver I really want in the first, but I like Swope and I think Dobson is ok too. But the extra 2nd and possibly a 3rd or 4th would be worth it IMO.
I'm all for trading down, but because the talent is flat a trade is unlikely.

I have a different view from 65 on Short. I think he's exactly the type of penetrating NT that Wade's looking for. The thought of Watt/Short and A.Smith on the DL with Cushing and crew at LB would go a long way in solving the Texans yearly problems holding up against the run without having to play 8 in the box.

Short can draw double teams, taking pressure off Watt. Short is a 3 down NT. IMHO
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Old 04-11-2013   #36
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I'm all for trading down, but because the talent is flat a trade is unlikely.

I have a different view from 65 on Short. I think he's exactly the type of penetrating NT that Wade's looking for. The thought of Watt/Short and A.Smith on the DL with Cushing and crew at LB would go a long way in solving the Texans yearly problems holding up against the run without having to play 8 in the box.

Short can draw double teams, taking pressure off Watt. Short is a 3 down NT. IMHO
Short is the best pass rusher out of all the DT's in this class. He would make a huge impact right away IMO. I still believe we will bring in a FA NT after the draft. Seymour or Hamton or Pouha would make an huge impact. Having Short to rotate at end or NT would improve this defense tenfold.

However we do it we have to improve the middle of our defense. We need at least two DL added to the current roster.
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