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Old 04-08-2013   #61
Hervoyel
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
1. Don Majkowski: He put up 1 4000 yard season in a 10 year career.

2. Jeff George: He put up 1 4000 yard season in an 11 year career. (Although he led the league in passing one year with just over 3900)

3. Jay Schroeder: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 10 year career. In that season, he was throwing to Gary Clark and Art Monk. Great receivers.

4. Jake Plummer: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 10 year career.

5. Scott Mitchell: Put up 1 4000 yard season in an 11 year career. Had a couple of great receivers AND Barry Sanders.

6. Bill Kenney: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 9 year career.

7. Steve Beuerlein: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 14 year career. (I have to admit, I always expected this guy to blossom into a great QB.)

8. Matt Schaub: Put up 3 4000 yard seasons so far in a 9 year career. Including a season with over 4700 yards (something none of those other guys have done.)

One of these 8 QBs is not like the other 7.

You might not like him or the way he plays, but he's a good QB. Can he get it done? Of course he can.

He's not going to make insane throws. He's not going to wow you with his athletic prowess.

He's got room for improvement and I don't think he's hit his ceiling, yet. But even so, with the right pieces around him, he can get it done.
He is a good QB. Good enough for the right team with the right system, in a year where the injury bug doesn't hit, to win with. You won't win because of him necessarily but you more than likely won't lose because of him either. It's just that when you do lose for some other reason he's not going to be able to counter that and keep it from happening.

I don't think he's got room for improvement however. He's been up against his ceiling for years and at this point after starting 79 games for the Houston Texans in this same offense he's shown you exactly what he's capable of.
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Old 04-09-2013   #62
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Originally Posted by Hervoyel View Post
He is a good QB. Good enough for the right team with the right system, in a year where the injury bug doesn't hit, to win with. You won't win because of him necessarily but you more than likely won't lose because of him either. It's just that when you do lose for some other reason he's not going to be able to counter that and keep it from happening.

I don't think he's got room for improvement however. He's been up against his ceiling for years and at this point after starting 79 games for the Houston Texans in this same offense he's shown you exactly what he's capable of.
Not to defend Schaub, just questioning this line of thinking.

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He is a good QB. Good enough for the right team with the right system, in a year where the injury bug doesn't hit, to win with. You won't win because of him necessarily but you more than likely won't lose because of him either. It's just that when you do lose for some other reason he's not going to be able to counter that and keep it from happening.
Which Super Bowl winning QB does this not apply to? Definitely applies to your Trent Dilfers & Joe Flacco. We know it applies to your Kurt Warners & Eli Mannings. But doesn't this also apply to your Tom Bradys & Peyton Mannings, and Aaron Rogers?

I understand those QBs have "done it" & it doesn't make "sense" to include Schaub in that conversation. But save Flacco, none of those guys got it done this year. Were they not good enough? In 2012 Peyton & Rogers exited the play offs in the divisional round, same as Schaub. The Broncos didn't even win a Play off game as they got a bye.

Is Schaub as good as those guys? I'm not saying that. I'm not saying he's in the same league. I know he can be as productive. If we're talking wins, his win percentage has been just as good as theirs over the last two years. IMO, there's nothing you can quantify to say he won't win a Super Bowl. He can throw for a lot of yards, he can throw for a lot of first downs, he can throw for a bunch of TDs (I doubt he's ever led the league in passing TDs). He doesn't make a lot of mistakes.

If anything (& if this team keeps improving) Schaub's Super Bowl is off in the future, where those guys' are in the past.
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Old 04-09-2013   #63
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Originally Posted by The Pencil Neck View Post
1. Don Majkowski: He put up 1 4000 yard season in a 10 year career.

2. Jeff George: He put up 1 4000 yard season in an 11 year career. (Although he led the league in passing one year with just over 3900)

3. Jay Schroeder: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 10 year career. In that season, he was throwing to Gary Clark and Art Monk. Great receivers.

4. Jake Plummer: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 10 year career.

5. Scott Mitchell: Put up 1 4000 yard season in an 11 year career. Had a couple of great receivers AND Barry Sanders.

6. Bill Kenney: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 9 year career.

7. Steve Beuerlein: Put up 1 4000 yard season in a 14 year career. (I have to admit, I always expected this guy to blossom into a great QB.)

8. Matt Schaub: Put up 3 4000 yard seasons so far in a 9 year career. Including a season with over 4700 yards (something none of those other guys have done.)

One of these 8 QBs is not like the other 7.

You might not like him or the way he plays, but he's a good QB. Can he get it done? Of course he can.

He's not going to make insane throws. He's not going to wow you with his athletic prowess.

He's got room for improvement and I don't think he's hit his ceiling, yet. But even so, with the right pieces around him, he can get it done.
Cant compare the different era's. Matt is playing at a time when the top QB's put up 5K plus. Back then the QB's and receivers were getting mugged, and now you cant even look at either one sideways without getting a penalty. Bad comparison in my opinion.
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Old 04-09-2013   #64
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Cant compare the different era's. Matt is playing at a time when the top QB's put up 5K plus. Back then the QB's and receivers were getting mugged, and now you cant even look at either one sideways without getting a penalty. Bad comparison in my opinion.
I don't know. Throwing for 4,000 yards in a winning season is still impressive to me.

Especially when it's done year in & year out.
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Old 04-09-2013   #65
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Not to defend Schaub, just questioning this line of thinking.



Which Super Bowl winning QB does this not apply to? Definitely applies to your Trent Dilfers & Joe Flacco. We know it applies to your Kurt Warners & Eli Mannings. But doesn't this also apply to your Tom Bradys & Peyton Mannings, and Aaron Rogers?

I understand those QBs have "done it" & it doesn't make "sense" to include Schaub in that conversation. But save Flacco, none of those guys got it done this year. Were they not good enough? In 2012 Peyton & Rogers exited the play offs in the divisional round, same as Schaub. The Broncos didn't even win a Play off game as they got a bye.

Is Schaub as good as those guys? I'm not saying that. I'm not saying he's in the same league. I know he can be as productive. If we're talking wins, his win percentage has been just as good as theirs over the last two years. IMO, there's nothing you can quantify to say he won't win a Super Bowl. He can throw for a lot of yards, he can throw for a lot of first downs, he can throw for a bunch of TDs (I doubt he's ever led the league in passing TDs). He doesn't make a lot of mistakes.

If anything (& if this team keeps improving) Schaub's Super Bowl is off in the future, where those guys' are in the past.
I think most of it applies to almost all of them. Even the Brady and Manning "demi-gods" can't compensate for everything. Blow their roster up with injuries and they can't fix it all by themselves. I think their biggest advantage is simply will to win and grasp of the game. Hell we don't even know what would happen to Brady outside of New England. Maybe if he went to Cleveland he'd get beaten all to hell and become a very ordinary version of himself. Maybe if he'd started out there he'd never have become the legend he is today. My thinking on this is not so much that Schaub isn't special so we should kick him to the curb. It's more along the lines of almost none of them are special. As long as you take your "good enough" QB and put him in a system that takes advantage of what he can do and build a team around him to do it then you got a chance.

We don't have one of the demi-gods so we have to put him in a system that fits with his skills and limitations. We've got to get him good protection (we were there before we blew it all up last year), a great running game (check, except for last years line/FB issues), and a great defense (never had that until Wade got here). He's also going to need some WR's who make him look better than he is and we haven't hit on one of those guys since Andre Johnson was drafted in 2003.

Schaub fails the Texas repeatedly because the Texans have failed Schaub equally as often. I've concluded that if they're not going to do any more than they have to fix the offense then they better go get a demi-god. This square-peg, round-hole **** isn't working.
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Old 04-09-2013   #66
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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I think most of it applies to almost all of them. Even the Brady and Manning "demi-gods" can't compensate for everything. Blow their roster up with injuries and they can't fix it all by themselves. I think their biggest advantage is simply will to win and grasp of the game. Hell we don't even know what would happen to Brady outside of New England. Maybe if he went to Cleveland he'd get beaten all to hell and become a very ordinary version of himself. Maybe if he'd started out there he'd never have become the legend he is today. My thinking on this is not so much that Schaub isn't special so we should kick him to the curb. It's more along the lines of almost none of them are special. As long as you take your "good enough" QB and put him in a system that takes advantage of what he can do and build a team around him to do it then you got a chance.

We don't have one of the demi-gods so we have to put him in a system that fits with his skills and limitations. We've got to get him good protection (we were there before we blew it all up last year), a great running game (check, except for last years line/FB issues), and a great defense (never had that until Wade got here). He's also going to need some WR's who make him look better than he is and we haven't hit on one of those guys since Andre Johnson was drafted in 2003.

Schaub fails the Texas repeatedly because the Texans have failed Schaub equally as often. I've concluded that if they're not going to do any more than they have to fix the offense then they better go get a demi-god. This square-peg, round-hole **** isn't working.


Above is a great assessment of where the Texans are and have been with Schaub... Must spread rep....Geeze!!
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Old 04-09-2013   #67
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Schaub fails the Texas repeatedly because the Texans have failed Schaub equally as often.
Not sure how the Texans have failed Schaub. Granted he hasn't had two top tier WR like ATL, or the top O-line in the league, but he has had weapons that he hasn't really been able to utilize to their full potential. I see it like the kid who just barely learns to ride a bike without training wheels and complains that he isn't getting his CR250R yet. Go fast with what you have first, then we can invest in an upgrade to make you go faster. Hit the receivers you have when it counts, then we might be able to justify going out and getting that other #1 type talent.
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Old 04-09-2013   #68
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Cant compare the different era's. Matt is playing at a time when the top QB's put up 5K plus. Back then the QB's and receivers were getting mugged, and now you cant even look at either one sideways without getting a penalty. Bad comparison in my opinion.
I didn't bring those guys up. I was responding to someone who compared Schaub to those guys.

Schaub through for 4770 yards BEFORE all these guys you're talking about started throwing for over 5000. At the time he did that, it was the 6th most yards in a season EVER.

With the rules changes, that's dropped to 14th.

NOW Schaub isn't being asked to put up those kinds of numbers week-in and week-out anymore. He's being asked to rely on his run game.
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Old 04-09-2013   #69
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Schaub through for 4770 yards BEFORE all these guys you're talking about started throwing for over 5000. At the time he did that, it was the 6th most yards in a season EVER.
You realize that when Matt did that he threw the ball more times than anyone else did that year. All time he'd have been in the top 30 for passes attempted in a single season.

Also, that year We had two players combine for almost 1,000 yards of YAC...Slaton and Dre did a lot of running after the catch that year. There was only one other team that was in that same stratosphere and it was the Chargers with Gates and Sproles.

But Rivers threw the ball about 100 less times than Schaub and still was top ten in yardage.


Since 2008, between Slaton, Andre and Foster Schaub has had AT LEAST 1 top ten weapon in YAC. Some years he had 2. No other team has had that and the only team to come close is NE with Welker.

If you go back and look Schaub has had a lot of help with YAC. Arian was even #2 behind Lesean McCoy one year by not that great of a margin.

Schaub has put up some great stats, but he has been helped by 1) throwing a lot 2) completing high percentage passes and getting substantial YAC from his targets
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Old 04-09-2013   #70
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Not sure how the Texans have failed Schaub. Granted he hasn't had two top tier WR like ATL, or the top O-line in the league, but he has had weapons that he hasn't really been able to utilize to their full potential. I see it like the kid who just barely learns to ride a bike without training wheels and complains that he isn't getting his CR250R yet. Go fast with what you have first, then we can invest in an upgrade to make you go faster. Hit the receivers you have when it counts, then we might be able to justify going out and getting that other #1 type talent.
I don't know what it is. But there is something about those teams that make their role players step up.

Shane Vareen.

Who the heck is Shane Vareen? If he had not stepped up for New England..

Did he play like that on that stage because of his QB? His Coach? His Family & friends at home?

Who knows, but we need our role players to step it up in similar situations. All this talk about James Casey & he dropped the gimmiest touch down I've ever seen in a play off game. He catches that one, who's to say Schaub isn't looking for him more often the rest of the game?

Jacoby Jones. We had been waiting for him to step it up & help us win a game (much less a big game) for four years. He's in Baltimore for one year & had the best play off game any receiver we drafted ever had (& yes, that's hyperbole). 1 catch for a TD, yeah. But it was a big catch.
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Old 04-09-2013   #71
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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You realize that when Matt did that he threw the ball more times than anyone else did that year.

Also, that year We had two players combine for almost 1,000 yards of YAC...Slaton and Dre did a lot of running after the catch that year. There was only one other team that was in that same stratosphere and it was the Chargers with Gates and Sproles.

But Rivers threw the ball about 100 less times than Schaub and still was top ten in yardage.


Since 2008, between Slaton, Andre and Foster Schaub has had AT LEAST 1 top ten weapon in YAC. Some years he had 2. No other team has had that and the only team to come close is NE with Welker.

If you go back and look Schaub has had a lot of help with YAC. Arian was even #2 behind Lesean McCoy one year by not that great of a margin.

Schaub has put up some great stats, but he has been helped by 1) throwing a lot 2) completing high percentage passes and getting substantial YAC from his targets
Yep. I know that. I don't consider that a bad thing.

One of the cornerstones of the West Coast Offense is YAC. It's about completing high percentage passes.

It's actually a great point. Some people here want some sort of extremely vertical, down-the-field passing attack and when they don't get that, they're all grumpy because our offense is too conservative. I've got no problem with a conservative, West Coast approach to the passing game. I've got no problem with an offense that takes what the defense gives them. As long as they're winning. And right now, we're winning.
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Old 04-09-2013   #72
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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The defense wasn't great in New England in January, but they can only do so much. We had many scoring opportunities where we failed. Heck, Danieal Manning gave them the Red Zone on the opening kick & we had to settle for a field goal.

Yeah, Casey dropped an easy six. But Matt stayed on OD too long on the next play & totally missed a wide open Aj in the back of the endzone. By the time he pulled the trigger, Aj had already gone by.

Had we scored 7 then, no doubt in my mind our defense would have took it to the Patriots.
if Casey could catch there would have been no second down.



no... I won't "let it go"
not until the Jacoby haters "let THAT go"
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Old 04-09-2013   #73
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Not sure how the Texans have failed Schaub. Granted he hasn't had two top tier WR like ATL, or the top O-line in the league, but he has had weapons that he hasn't really been able to utilize to their full potential. I see it like the kid who just barely learns to ride a bike without training wheels and complains that he isn't getting his CR250R yet. Go fast with what you have first, then we can invest in an upgrade to make you go faster. Hit the receivers you have when it counts, then we might be able to justify going out and getting that other #1 type talent.
I'd call the running game when he got here something of a failure. The lack of any semblance of a defense until 2011 is also a failure. Not coming up with additional viable WR options year after year is something of another failure. Ok, they didn't literally fail Schaub. They failed themselves and in the process wasted some great years from Schaub and from AJ, and from Foster.
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Old 04-09-2013   #74
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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The defense needs Schaub to step back up to pre-December 2012 status, also. The Texans' starting offense scored only 3 TDs over the last 4 games. The defense was elite against the Bengals in the wildcard round, with Cincy's only TD coming thanks to a Schaub pick 6. It's very fair for the defense to ask for a little help.
Damn...

I had forgotten about that pick 6...
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Old 04-09-2013   #75
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

No Rey.

I had mentioned this before.
There's a site that track QB Air Yard per Attempt.
Schaub is consistently in the top tier ever since he's been here.
He even ranked first one year among eligible QBs.
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Old 04-09-2013   #76
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
No Rey.

I had mentioned this before.
There's a site that track QB Air Yard per Attempt.
Schaub is consistently in the top tier ever since he's been here.
He even ranked first one year among eligible QBs.
Yards per attempt has absolutely 0 to do with what I wrote.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/pl...ardsAfterCatch
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Old 04-09-2013   #77
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Yards per attempt has absolutely 0 to do with what I wrote.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/pl...ardsAfterCatch
AIR yards, Rey, AIR yards!
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Old 04-09-2013   #78
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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AIR yards, Rey, AIR yards!
Which has 0 to do with what I posted.

But anyways using your air yards for this past year Schaub would've been in the bottom half of the leauge...

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/airYardsStats.php
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Old 04-09-2013   #79
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

There are only two components in passing yardage: Air Yard and Yard After Catch.

If you go to Sportingcharts.com, put everything since 2007 into a spread sheet, qualify the QBs (let's say a minimum of 1,500 pass attempts over those six years), Schaub is easily somewhere between top 5-10 in Air Yard per Attempt.
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Old 04-09-2013   #80
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Originally Posted by Rey View Post
Which has 0 to do with what I posted.

But anyways using your air yards for this past year Schaub would've been in the bottom half of the leauge...

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/airYardsStats.php
I've seen Adv NFL Stats before; the guy is rather new (and working by himself).
He's a genius in probability and statistic, I grant him that, but his numbers are different from Sportingcharts. He doesn't have previous numbers so I don't think I know where he pulls the stats from.

But, yeah, Schaub's number this year is right below average.
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