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Old 04-05-2013   #21
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Originally Posted by Jules Winnfield View Post

people who like to bring up his 4,000 yard capabilities as a reason why he's actually very good or good dont understand that 4,000 yards is the new 3,000.
There was a time where consistently throwing 3000 yards a season meant you had a starter. There were several guys who could start 16 games, but not crack 3000 yards. There were other guys who would get pulled & never have the opportunity to throw for 3000 yards, because they were so bad.

Matt's been throwing for 4,000 since he's been a starter, barring injury, which I believe is still a major concern.

So, in this case, throwing for 4,000 yards says exactly that about Matt Schaub, he's a quality starter. Does that mean he can win a Super Bowl? Hell no, but don't act like garbage QBs are throwing for 4,000 yards.

& as far as rushing for 1,000 yards for a RB. It's never been a big deal. Being able to rush for 1,000 yards for multiple seasons is the hallmark of a great RB.
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Old 04-05-2013   #22
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Originally Posted by 2012Champs View Post
It looks like 11 players had 4k yards last season. those not on the list Eli, Cam, Flacco, Dalton , Rivers, Weeden, Griffin etc

2011 it was 10 matt missed out but was on pace for 3966
2010 it was 5 matt was #4
2009 it was 10 with matt #1
2008 it was 6
2007 it was 7
2006 it was 5


almost everyone doesnt fit here
the league is trending towards 4,000 yards passing becoming an increasing regularity. the rule changes are favoring the offense more than ever.
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Old 04-05-2013   #23
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Originally Posted by Jules Winnfield View Post
the league is trending towards 4,000 yards passing becoming an increasing regularity. the rule changes are favoring the offense more than ever.
So now you're saying Matt is ahead of the pack? & has been for a while?
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Old 04-05-2013   #24
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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So now you're saying Matt is ahead of the pack? & has been for a while?
not quite. nice try though.
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Old 04-05-2013   #25
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Matt's been throwing for 4,000 since he's been a starter, barring injury, which I believe is still a major concern.
Schaub threw for 4000+ three times - in 2009, 2010, and 2012. A record 11 different QBs threw for 4000 yards in 2012, including Carson Palmer, Josh Freeman, and Andrew Luck. In 2010, only five QBs threw for 4000 yards, with guys like Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Romo missing the cut. In 2009, ten QBs threw for 4000 yards. There have been 48 total 4000-yd seasons in NFL history, and 36 of them have happened in the last four years. So it's pretty clear that the game has changed so that 4000 yards is not nearly as impressive as it used to be. Incidentally, Namath was the first ever 4000-yd passer, back in 1967.

I'd be more interested in a points per yard stat, or something to that effect, and how it translates to winning.

http://www.profootballhof.com/histor...elease_id=1330
http://www.profootballhof.com/histor...y-quarterback/
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Old 04-05-2013   #26
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Schaub threw for 4000+ three times - in 2009, 2010, and 2012. A record 11 different QBs threw for 4000 yards in 2012, including Carson Palmer, Josh Freeman, and Andrew Luck. In 2010, only five QBs threw for 4000 yards, with guys like Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Romo missing the cut. In 2009, ten QBs threw for 4000 yards. There have been 48 total 4000-yd seasons in NFL history, and 36 of them have happened in the last four years. So it's pretty clear that the game has changed so that 4000 yards is not nearly as impressive as it used to be. Incidentally, Namath was the first ever 4000-yd passer, back in 1967.

I'd be more interested in a points per yard stat, or something to that effect, and how it translates to winning.

http://www.profootballhof.com/histor...elease_id=1330
http://www.profootballhof.com/histor...y-quarterback/

thank you.
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Old 04-05-2013   #27
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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So it's pretty clear that the game has changed so that 4000 yards is not nearly as impressive as it used to be.
I didn't disagree with that at all.


But not being "nearly as impressive" & not being "impressive" are two totally different things.
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Old 04-05-2013   #28
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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But not being "nearly as impressive" & not being "impressive" are two totally different things.
OK, let's go with less impressive every year, approaching not impressive. This is where the eyeball test comes into play. Example - Dan Marino is widely regarded as one of the best passers of all time, even though his team didn't have much success. He passed for 4000 yards six times, back when it really was impressive. Dan Fouts passed for 4000 yards back in the late '70s and early '80s three straight times. Joe Montana never passed for 4000 yards.

I just don't put stock in milestone numbers like that, so I'm not impressed by them as a standalone stat. When the yards are directly contributing to wins, then I take notice. Schaub threw for 4770 yards in '09, and a lot of them were garbage yards. Hey, he still threw them, so good on him. But there aren't many people in the world that regard that season as great. With 4000 yards fast becoming the new standard, it's even less impressive than I felt before. Factor in the fact that a team's system and unique circumstances may artificially inflate or deflate that number (see: Montana), and I just don't find much value in the 4000 yard mark by itself, which is how it always seems to be used in debates like this.
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Old 04-05-2013   #29
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

The eye ball test:

Schaub has improved his footwork as I wanted him to; that is not to say he's ever pretty.
The ball fake off the play action is probably among the best.
His roll-out will never be great since he's not mobile.

He has gotten rid of the long-winded throwing motion.

He does not hold on to the ball too long anymore, and therefore taking fewer sacks.

His TD/INT has been better as compared to the first 4 years of his career.

His air yard per attempt over the last 4 years ranks somewhere between top 5 to top 10.

He's not horrendous in the red zone (14 TDs vs 1 INT).

Again, Schaub is not great; he's not even "very good", but he's quite good, all I'm saying. Still somewhere between top 10-15 for me.
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Old 04-05-2013   #30
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
OK, let's go with less impressive every year, approaching not impressive. This is where the eyeball test comes into play. Example - Dan Marino is widely regarded as one of the best passers of all time, even though his team didn't have much success. He passed for 4000 yards six times, back when it really was impressive. Dan Fouts passed for 4000 yards back in the late '70s and early '80s three straight times. Joe Montana never passed for 4000 yards.

I just don't put stock in milestone numbers like that, so I'm not impressed by them as a standalone stat. When the yards are directly contributing to wins, then I take notice. Schaub threw for 4770 yards in '09, and a lot of them were garbage yards. Hey, he still threw them, so good on him. But there aren't many people in the world that regard that season as great. With 4000 yards fast becoming the new standard, it's even less impressive than I felt before. Factor in the fact that a team's system and unique circumstances may artificially inflate or deflate that number (see: Montana), and I just don't find much value in the 4000 yard mark by itself, which is how it always seems to be used in debates like this.



lets just say more people are hitting 4k but Jules said almost everyone gets 4k which isnt nearly the case
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Old 04-05-2013   #31
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
Schaub threw for 4000+ three times - in 2009, 2010, and 2012. A record 11 different QBs threw for 4000 yards in 2012, including Carson Palmer, Josh Freeman, and Andrew Luck. In 2010, only five QBs threw for 4000 yards, with guys like Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Romo missing the cut. In 2009, ten QBs threw for 4000 yards. There have been 48 total 4000-yd seasons in NFL history, and 36 of them have happened in the last four years. So it's pretty clear that the game has changed so that 4000 yards is not nearly as impressive as it used to be. Incidentally, Namath was the first ever 4000-yd passer, back in 1967.

I'd be more interested in a points per yard stat, or something to that effect, and how it translates to winning.

http://www.profootballhof.com/histor...elease_id=1330
http://www.profootballhof.com/histor...y-quarterback/
Not to be nit picking or anything, but, I don't think you have the stats quite right. According to the website you listed, it's not "48 total 4000-yd seasons" it's 48 total QB's who have thrown for 4000 yards, a total of 110 times. Here's the quote from the website:
Quote:
Overall, there have been 48 different quarterbacks who've passed for 4,000 yards in a season. The group has combined to do so 110 times.
So that dilutes the accomplishment even further!
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Old 04-05-2013   #32
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

If you want to go into the numbers, Schaub could have 5 straight seasons with over 4,000 yards...
if you prorate the numbers from 2008 and 2011.

In 2008, Schaub played only 11 games.

In 2011, Schaub played 10 games, but he only attempted 3 passes in the second half of the 10 games due to the injury sustained in the first half.
And there's the Titans game, for example, when we were way ahead and Schaub only attempted 5 passes in the second half.
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Old 04-05-2013   #33
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Not to be nit picking or anything, but, I don't think you have the stats quite right. According to the website you listed, it's not "48 total 4000-yd seasons" it's 48 total QB's who have thrown for 4000 yards, a total of 110 times. Here's the quote from the website:


So that dilutes the accomplishment even further!
In 2009, Schaub threw for 4770 yards.

Since then, with the changes in the rules, that's down to 14th. But at the time, only Dan Marino, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady and Dan Fouts had thrown for more. That's good company to be in.

He's not a bad QB. Not great, but good enough to get the job done.
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Old 04-05-2013   #34
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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In 2009, Schaub threw for 4770 yards.

Since then, with the changes in the rules, that's down to 14th. But at the time, only Dan Marino, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady and Dan Fouts had thrown for more. That's good company to be in.

He's not a bad QB. Not great, but good enough to get the job done.
And Schaub did it with "greats" like Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones, and David Anderson. Heck, Vonta Leach even caught 20 balls that year and the team's leading rusher had only 437 yards.
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Old 04-05-2013   #35
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

Everyone is complaining about schaub, and if you don't think he's a top 5 QB I agree but the kid can play. Take a look at the QBs that you consider to be better than him. Look at the WR corps they have. Hell take flacco. Boldin is a beast, not Andre beastly but a beast. Between him and Jacoby? Torry smith >>>> Kevin Walter. How many QBs that you think are better than schaub have worse or even comperable receivers? Schaub may be a borderline 10 qb but it is hard to argue that our receivers are not bottom 10. I would love to see a NT or ILB but received is our first second and third need. To ***** about Schaub without realizing that he has thrown for an average of 270 ypg over the last 4 years to Andre Owen and nobody special is just flat asinine.

There isn't a qb that is in the top 5 that doesn't have at least 4 or 5 legitimate targets. And as great as Andre is he can't make up for the lack of targets. If you only have two options to throw to I don't care how good they are they can be covered. How many receiving corps would you NOT take over ours? I'm guessing that outside of Seattle that there isn't a playoff team whos receiving corps I wouldn't trade for ours.



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Old 04-05-2013   #36
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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OK, let's go with less impressive every year, approaching not impressive. This is where the eyeball test comes into play. Example - Dan Marino is widely regarded as one of the best passers of all time, even though his team didn't have much success. He passed for 4000 yards six times, back when it really was impressive. Dan Fouts passed for 4000 yards back in the late '70s and early '80s three straight times. Joe Montana never passed for 4000 yards.

I just don't put stock in milestone numbers like that, so I'm not impressed by them as a standalone stat. When the yards are directly contributing to wins, then I take notice. Schaub threw for 4770 yards in '09, and a lot of them were garbage yards. Hey, he still threw them, so good on him. But there aren't many people in the world that regard that season as great. With 4000 yards fast becoming the new standard, it's even less impressive than I felt before. Factor in the fact that a team's system and unique circumstances may artificially inflate or deflate that number (see: Montana), and I just don't find much value in the 4000 yard mark by itself, which is how it always seems to be used in debates like this.
If Schaub fails your eyeball test, just say so. Nothing wrong with that. Just because 4000 yards is "fast becoming the standard" doesn't make it any less impressive today. "Becoming" being the operative word here.

He chokes.

He's not a leader of men.

He's not a winner.

I don't care how many yards he's thrown for, but 4000 yards is impressive. 4000 yards in every season he's played 16 games... that's impressive. Being on track to throw for 4000 in the years he didn't play 16 games, that's impressive.

20 years from now, probably not impressive at all. Today..... impressive.

He's got the ability to be an elite QB. But he's not elite. Won't ever be. Has nothing to do with his mobility, his arm, or his decision making. He's a choker.
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Old 04-05-2013   #37
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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If Schaub fails your eyeball test, just say so. Nothing wrong with that. Just because 4000 yards is "fast becoming the standard" doesn't make it any less impressive today. "Becoming" being the operative word here.

He chokes.

He's not a leader of men.

He's not a winner.

I don't care how many yards he's thrown for, but 4000 yards is impressive. 4000 yards in every season he's played 16 games... that's impressive. Being on track to throw for 4000 in the years he didn't play 16 games, that's impressive.

20 years from now, probably not impressive at all. Today..... impressive.

He's got the ability to be an elite QB. But he's not elite. Won't ever be. Has nothing to do with his mobility, his arm, or his decision making. He's a choker.
He chokes? That is a wild assertion that barely has any credibility. Did Andre choke when he dropped that pass? What about Casey? Walter? On the first be game kj trys to scoop and run instead of just fall on the fumble. Quinn dropped a sure INT. In years past how many times did he put us in game tying/winning positions only to have the defense blow it? The 46 second 96 yard march by Sanchez anyone?

By the way, flacco was a choke artist until this year.

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Old 04-05-2013   #38
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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He chokes? That is a wild assertion that barely has any credibility. Did Andre choke when he dropped that pass? What about Casey? Walter? On the first be game kj trys to scoop and run instead of just fall on the fumble. Quinn dropped a sure INT. In years past how many times did he put us in game tying/winning positions only to have the defense blow it? The 46 second 96 yard march by Sanchez anyone?

By the way, flacco was a choke artist until this year.

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Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes......... doesn't matter, we didn't win. It sucks being the QB, but at this level, winning is all that matters.

& I agree. If crappy Flacco can do it, anyone can.


But not Matt. Not in Houston.

Wish I could explain it, but I can't. But I'm not going to tell you he sucks because he's thrown for 4000 yards or was on track to throw for 4000 yards in the last 5 seasons. That makes less sense than my, "Anyone but Schaub can do it" argument.
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Old 04-05-2013   #39
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes......... doesn't matter, we didn't win. It sucks being the QB, but at this level, winning is all that matters.

& I agree. If crappy Flacco can do it, anyone can.


But not Matt. Not in Houston.

Wish I could explain it, but I can't. But I'm not going to tell you he sucks because he's thrown for 4000 yards or was on track to throw for 4000 yards in the last 5 seasons. That makes less sense than my, "Anyone but Schaub can do it" argument.
Well Manning was considered a choke artist form almost a decade. You just can't convince me that we can't win the big one with Schaub. Maybe we don't but of doesn't fall on just Schaub. It is a team sport. It is like saying a defense can't won the SB with JJ Watt, who has had twice as many cracks as Schaub. Or maybe with Cushing or Andre. Not exactly the same I guess but you get the point. I think we are a lot further from having SB caliber WRs than we are a SB caliber QB. Swap our receivers for Flaccos and they don't win an SB either.

Mike
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Old 04-05-2013   #40
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Default Re: Football Outsiders: State of the Texans

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
If Schaub fails your eyeball test, just say so. Nothing wrong with that. Just because 4000 yards is "fast becoming the standard" doesn't make it any less impressive today.
I'm not impressed. I'll just put it that way. And it isn't that he fails, per se. I'm not calling Schaub a scrub. He's a good QB. I don't personally believe he's good enough, but that doesn't mean he's bad. As for the stat, well there are the 4000 yard seasons by guys like Don Majkowski, Jeff George, Jay Schroeder, Jake Plummer, Scott Mitchell, Bill Kenney, Steve Beurlein and Matt Schaub. Then there are the 4000 yard seasons by guys like Manning, Marino, Young, Favre, Brees, and Rodgers.
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