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Old 03-19-2013   #101
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by Rey View Post
Ben and bradys offenses are built around them having more talent at the recieving positions than you can cover. They rely on their talent flat out bearing your db's coverage and having qb's good enough to make plays.

Not that they don't have good play design, but they aren't running plays where the whole offense makes it look like a stretch running plays and then all of a sudden receivers break into their routes.

How many times have you seen schaub on a straight drop back read the coverage, manipulate safeties maybe scramble and escape some pressure and then launch a ball hitting a guy in stride streaking way down the field?

The answer to that may just actually be never.

And if you haven't given kubiak good enough credit as an offensive mind then I don't know what to tell you.

Credit as an overall coach? Not from me. He's about average as a head coach overall.

I don't know qnd haven't thought about the Importance of the long ball being completed at a high rate, but I do know that CIRCUMSTANCES in which schaub delivers his long ball are different than a lot of other qb's based on the design of the offense.
Some really good points. They do not undermine or diminish infantrycak's original point, as his premise was based on numbers and stats.

However, it is very interesting to look into how those balls are delivered and from what circumstances.

I cannot recall too many, if any, times that Schaub dropped back, manipulated safeties, and landed a deep ball in stride for a TD/long gain.

Is that due to scheme or talent? Or combo of both?
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Old 03-19-2013   #102
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by Double Barrel View Post
Some really good points. They do not undermine or diminish infantrycak's original point, as his premise was based on numbers and stats.

However, it is very interesting to look into how those balls are delivered and from what circumstances.

I cannot recall too many, if any, times that Schaub dropped back, manipulated safeties, and landed a deep ball in stride for a TD/long gain.

Is that due to scheme or talent? Or combo of both?
Andre Johnson....1500 yards and 4TD's. Four. That's almost impossible.

Let me just say that when your head coach comes out in public and states that we are not going to throw the ball to Foster because we don't want to overwork him...and then you don't throw the ball to Foster....well, you aren't exactly the Patriots.
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Old 03-19-2013   #103
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

And also we need to compare Schaub to players about his level, not guys that earn more.

Why do we even try to compare Schaub with Brady and Ben?
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Old 03-19-2013   #104
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
And also we need to compare Schaub to players about his level, not guys that earn more.

Why do we even try to compare Schaub with Brady and Ben?
Because the question is, "Can we win a Super Bowl with Schaub"

Until avg schmoes start winning the Super Bowl with regularity, we're going to compare Schaub to the guys that make a lot more.

Hopefully Flacco started a trend, & we got a shot.
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Old 03-19-2013   #105
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by Double Barrel View Post
I cannot recall too many, if any, times that Schaub dropped back, manipulated safeties, and landed a deep ball in stride for a TD/long gain.
Well let's define deep - do you mean over 30 or over 40? I think prior to this thread many folks would have answered over 40.

Of course having seen the stats now they would hate to admit in 2012 Peyton and Brady NEVER successfully dropped back in any fashion and passed the ball 40 yds.

Anyway, I believe Schaub's 53 yd pass over the middle was a straight drop. I can't remember if he manipulated the safeties on that play. I can recall Gruden and a couple other commentators during last season talking about how well Schaub did exactly that.

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Andre Johnson....1500 yards and 4TD's. Four. That's almost impossible.
Just shy of 1600 yds. Now that is one of the great mysteries of the universe.

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Not that they don't have good play design, but they aren't running plays where the whole offense makes it look like a stretch running plays and then all of a sudden receivers break into their routes.
OK this is just out in left field. None of these plays are coming off AJ hanging around the line of scrimmage faking like he is blocking and then tearing ass down field and the guy he was blocking just goes f#$k it I will inexplicably let AJ run down field, maybe he wants a jog on this rushing play. You're just making stuff up. The WR's run routes whether they are running or passing. That is what makes it deceptive.
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Old 03-19-2013   #106
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Anyway, I believe Schaub's 53 yd pass over the middle was a straight drop. I can't remember if he manipulated the safeties on that play. I can recall Gruden and a couple other commentators during last season talking about how well Schaub did exactly that.
I will say that he made more use of the pump fake this year than I've been accustomed from him.
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Old 03-19-2013   #107
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Well let's define deep - do you mean over 30 or over 40? I think prior to this thread many folks would have answered over 40.

Of course having seen the stats now they would hate to admit in 2012 Peyton and Brady NEVER successfully dropped back in any fashion and passed the ball 40 yds.

Anyway, I believe Schaub's 53 yd pass over the middle was a straight drop. I can't remember if he manipulated the safeties on that play. I can recall Gruden and a couple other commentators during last season talking about how well Schaub did exactly that.
You have done an excellent job on this subject.

And it pretty much aligns with my own thoughts on Schaub, that his limitations are not physical but rather mental. Obviously he's not a mobile guy, but that's never been in question. That's a given. But he can sling the ball.

And while I never say never about his mental state as it pertains to carrying this team when it needs a QB to carry it in big games, he will have to prove it to us before I believe it at this point.
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Old 03-19-2013   #108
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
Well let's define deep - do you mean over 30 or over 40?
Personally, I would say 20 yards, when you're talking about passes and not just pass plays. 20+ plays are tracked, as are 40+ plays. The latter happens so infrequently in the NFL that the former is really a long play. No one tracks 30+ plays, as far as I know.
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Old 03-19-2013   #109
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

I've always thought that the Shanahan/Kubiak offense needed a mobile QB to be completely effective. In Schaubs early years in the offense he did much more bootlegs,rollouts and throwing on the run. Last few not so much. I think that Koobs cant run the full compliment of plays that he would like, thus handicapping what he can do with Schaub. Schaub just gets rattled. When it hits the fan, he hits the ground, balled up and sucking his thumb. His playoff performance didnt do anything to change skeptics minds about his play. Above average QB, nothing special. Andre Johnson should have 20 more TD passes during his tenure with Schaub if he didnt have to wait on balls.
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Old 03-19-2013   #110
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Personally, I would say 20 yards, when you're talking about passes and not just pass plays. 20+ plays are tracked, as are 40+ plays. The latter happens so infrequently in the NFL that the former is really a long play. No one tracks 30+ plays, as far as I know.
I don't think when guys are sitting around the table eating chicken wings and drinking beer they think of 20 yards as a deep ball. The stats you are talking about are on play result also so the pass may have been four yards behind the line of scrimmage and gone for 20. ESPN tracks in the air which was what I wanted to narrow down and examine and they do it separately for 31-40 and 41+.

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When it hits the fan, he hits the ground, balled up and sucking his thumb.
This is just bogus. Schaub hangs and takes shots. Look no further than the back to back shots in Denver.
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Old 03-19-2013   #111
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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The stats you are talking about are on play result also so the pass may have been four yards behind the line of scrimmage and gone for 20.
That is why I made the distinction between passes and pass plays. Perhaps I could have worded it better. Fact is, 20 yards in the air is a long pass play. It doesn't happen that often. I'd be curious to see percentage comparisons from the days before the WCO, but I'm sure no one has ever looked at that. Out of 544 pass attempts this season by Schaub, only 46 of them went for 20+ (9 more than 2011), 8 for 40+. That's a pretty small percentage, and that's even before we start really separating out the plays that you mention, where the receiver does all the work.

Like kickers, when you start talking percentages, you realize how close everyone is to each other. It's the difference in a few plays that separate the best from the good.
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Old 03-19-2013   #112
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

Why do you keep going back to yardage results stats rather than in the air?

Damn you are really playing your stats too. "9 more than 2011" LOL. Schaub only played 10 games in 2011 (so in other words was on pace for 59 & 14.5). Try looking at the two prior seasons - 59 & 9 and 62 & 15.

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It's the difference in a few plays that separate the best from the good.
Well the best were 0 of 8 and the good was 3 of 4.
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Old 03-19-2013   #113
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Why do you keep going back to yardage results stats rather than in the air?
Why do you keep overlooking my recognition of "in the air" stats? I have stated twice now that "in the air" 20+ is a long pass, and I have specifically distinguished that from "pass plays". I simply pointed out the overall 20+ to illustrate the fact that 20+ plays don't happen that often, and that is why I consider them long plays. So if 20+ plays don't happen that often, and 20+ in the air is an even smaller subset of that, clearly 20+ in the air is a rare play.

All of which just goes back to my point in the last post saying that I consider 20+ to be a long play. People can disagree all they want.

Quote:
Damn you are really playing your stats too. "9 more than 2011" LOL. Schaub only played 10 games in 2011 (so in other words was on pace for 59 & 14.5). Try looking at the two prior seasons - 59 & 9 and 62 & 15.

Well the best were 0 of 8 and the good was 3 of 4.
I confess I don't even know what you're talking about, and frankly, I'm not that interested. I can go look at 20+ plays for other QBs if I cared enough, but that doesn't separate out the 20+ in the air plays. You claim your source does, but the very first and only play that I cared about earlier clearly breaks your source. Schaub threw an INT 35 yards in the air to Vontae Davis when your source said he had no INTs in that subset. Furthermore, every completion where the WR had to slow down from his wide open spot to let the ball and the defender get there is not factored into your source.

In the end, I don't care to parse stats. The man has an issue throwing a deep ball. Blame it on his foot, his mechanics, his arm, his head, or the offense; I don't care. I'm tired of watching the man play QB. If you disagree, that's cool. But you're not selling me on something else.
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Old 03-19-2013   #114
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

WOW! Just wow!!

Dan Pastorini (and I've brought this up before) who was known for a very strong arm believes Schaub can make any and every throw necessary. He (Dante) believes that Schaub's footwork needs some improvement with regards to his deep balls.
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Old 03-19-2013   #115
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

The percentage of deep throws can vary depending on several factors.

Some teams like to go vertical more than others.
Coverage sometimes dictate the call.
Whether your team is behind by a lot or ahead by a lot, etc.


The most difficult is the deep out (besides the transcontinental pass).
These throws are supposed to be along the sideline, at depth between 35-45 yards.
As long as your QB can get the ball there on time (more often than not), you're fine.
This is why Pastorini doesn't complain about Schaub's arm.

On post routes or skinny posts, the actual distance is shorter as it's a straight downfield pass.
Sometimes, there are reasons why the QB might make the throw shorter.
If he (Schaub) can throw the deep out, it doesn't really make sense to complain about his underthrowing receivers down the middle.

One number that has some merit to look at is the Air Yard per Attempt, especially if you add all the seasons together (from 2007 until now.)

Schaub is going to be there around top 10 (with a certain minimum number of attempts, let's say 2,000). If you look it up, you will be surprised by the numbers of certain QBs that you think highly off.

One of the site that tracks it is SportingCharts.com

There's even one year when Schaub led the league in that category (if you take out the top rated guy (Todd Collins who was a backup and shouldn't qualify).

This number at least tell you who's dinking and dunking and who's not.
Specifically, you might want to compare Schaub with Brady.
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Old 03-20-2013   #116
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Like kickers, when you start talking percentages, you realize how close everyone is to each other. It's the difference in a few plays that separate the best from the good.
I think the stats can show us that overall he isn't as different from the better QBs as many of us would like to believe.

However, in the past we've said we have a top 10 offense, or top 13 defense using NFL.com's ranking which goes by yards. when you look at points allowed, or points scored, we were more middle of the pack than anything.

Recently we've been able to say we're a top 5 offense & a top 10 defense, in scoring as well as yards & we've also been winning a lot of football games.

So when you look at scoring, Matt's "middle-of-the-pack" just like Flacco; 22 Tds. Of course, you have to factor in that we've got Arian Foster who led the league in rushing TDs. But the Patriots led the league in rushing TDs & somehow Brady managed to throw 12 more TDs than Schaub (& Flacco).

Then again, when you think of who Brady could throw the ball to, who might score & you can come up with a list of names; Welker, Gronk, Lloyd, Woodhead, Hernandez, Stallworth, Riddley, Vareen.....

Make a list of players likely to score for Schaub; Andre, OD,
If anyone esle scored, we'd be just as surprised as the other team.

So the way I see it, Matt is Matt. I don't like the way he throws the long ball, but for whatever reasons, statistically he's on par with "the better" QBs in the league. His QB Rating puts him in the Flacco/Eli tier.

He looked just as crappy/good to me at the end of the season as he did at the beginning of the season. He looked just as crappy/good in the pro bowl as he has his entire career. I don't question that we can win with Schaub (Freak'n Flacco won the Super Bowl with Jacoby Jones), I question whether the team can. Without a major upgrade in receivers, I don't see it happening.

& I don't understand why Kubiak would load up Arian with 600 carries, then keep him out of the passing game. Forsett is a fine receiver out of the backfield, & he's an ok runner. Casey... a fine receiver. If Schaub isn't going to make Kevin Walter look like Wes Welker, why aren't we getting these other receivers involved?
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Old 03-20-2013   #117
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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You have done an excellent job on this subject.

And it pretty much aligns with my own thoughts on Schaub, that his limitations are not physical but rather mental. Obviously he's not a mobile guy, but that's never been in question. That's a given. But he can sling the ball.

And while I never say never about his mental state as it pertains to carrying this team when it needs a QB to carry it in big games, he will have to prove it to us before I believe it at this point.
I honestly don't believe the mental aspect of Schaub is even all on him...He shares that deficiency with his head coach; actually i put it more on Kubiak than i do Schaub b/c Kubiak just refuses to do certain things. Dre only having 4 TD's with 1500 yds recieving isn't simply him and Schaub not connecting in the red zone or schaub constantly underthrowing him deep on obvious potential TD's. it's more of Kubiak not looking for him when we're close and in the red zone.

I think everyone recognizes once we're inside the 15-10 yd line kubiak's playcallying goes ultra conservative...its the chief reason Foster's TD production has been double digits since he became a starter for us in 2010. If we do pass it, it's usually something underneath to a TE.....or to Foster largely b/c kubiak doesn't want to take a chance throwing it up to AJ. Kubiak is also not very creative calling plays either...Sometimes you just gotta put things on tape so coaches are aware that it's in your arsenal...Last year, we just play-actioned teams to death..teams got really used to seeing that & killed it.
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Old 03-20-2013   #118
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by Playoffs View Post
Haters hate numbers.
No we don't. And you're forgetting the credo of our sect:

"Haters gotta hate."

Hater-ration, hater NATION!
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Old 03-20-2013   #119
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by Dread-Head View Post
No we don't. And you're forgetting the credo of our sect:

"Haters gotta hate."

Hater-ration, hater NATION!
I hate the term "Haters".
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Old 03-20-2013   #120
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
I hate the term "Haters".
We "haters" get no love.
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