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Old 03-13-2013   #61
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

No, Schaub doesn't have a big arm, but he's good enough to make the necessary throw in the WCO; that's all that matters.
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Old 03-13-2013   #62
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by amazing80 View Post
whered you get these numbers from?
Dutchrudder is correct - ESPN.

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Originally Posted by silvrhand View Post
This doesn't pass my litmus test, so I went digging..

For 20+ yard completions, I show that he was 16th in the league with 46 completions of 20+ yards. He was also what 14th with 8 long balls of 40+ yards or more.

Not only do the stats contradict yours, but in general the eyeball test for Matt is he doesn't have good ball placement has to be on a schedule, or else he's very inefficient. I still think Matt is a system QB, and that's all he'll ever be, but that's all Kubiak wants though IMHO.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...ualified=false
Dutchrudder is also correct on this. Your stats do not contradict mine. They are just for something completely different. I spelled this out explicitly in my original post - this is on how far the ball travels IN THE AIR not the length of the end result of the play. Maybe your eyeball test should be able to tell the difference between those two basic concepts. The 41 yd WR screen to AJ to win in overtime - not in this. The 53 yd in the air pass - in this.

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Color me dumb but I cannot understand these 'stats'. Further explanation please?
What is there not to understand? I think you are asking for conclusions and I was leaving those to each person.

ckhouston - try reading. This is in the air. It has nothing to do with dumping it to Foster and having him go 80 yards.

This thread was not intended as a general referendum on Schaub. I was surprised when I saw Big Ben's numbers and so started looking at some other QB's.
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Old 03-13-2013   #63
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

I'm pretty ambivalent about Schaub. I see his good, his bad, and I'm pragmatic in realizing that he's the best option at QB the Texans have right now.

So, fwiw as it relates to this thread, some anecdotal stuff:

Quote:
Schaub’s deep ball impresses Patriots corner Aqib Talib

The Patriots have said all week they expect a very different Texans team on Sunday than the one they faced in December.

Patriots cornerback Aqib Talib said he’s seen changes on film and expects more in the game.

Asked what he thinks Texans quarterback Matt Schaub’s biggest strength was, Talib said it was Schaub’s deep ball.

“He can get that ball out there,” Talib said. “He knows the speed of his receivers; he’s real good on putting that deep ball on the money.”

Source
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Old 03-13-2013   #64
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by Double Barrel View Post
I'm pretty ambivalent about Schaub. I see his good, his bad, and I'm pragmatic in realizing that he's the best option at QB the Texans have right now.

So, fwiw as it relates to this thread, some anecdotal stuff:
WTF is with that quote, that's one of the things that always drives me crazy is Matt's long balls the receivers are ALWAYS waiting.. this is like Talib wanting Matt to go deep so he can chase it down and pick it off lol.
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Old 03-13-2013   #65
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by Jules Winnfield View Post
matt's accuracy has always been a problem even before his injury. Just look at the film, even short passes he has trouble making accurate throws. That's why you always see receivers having to make high difficulty catches on simple crossing patterns.

my god even his check down passes are horrible. How many times have you seen owen daniels having to make crazy catches on the account of schaub? Look at that last playoff game, horrible throw to andre in the end zone, horrible passes to casey, owen daniels where an accurate throw to a pass no longer than 20 yards would have netted a first down.

If we had a lesser tight end instead of a pro bowl caliber one, this weakness would be glaring much brighter. Even some of the throws to arian foster were ridiculously bad, that one throw vs jets or bears i think where foster had to lunge all out to grab a touch down pass just shows matt's accuracy problem.

With all that being said, matt's biggest problem is not his arm strength but his decision making. That is matt's biggest weakness IMO. He has shaky decision making, not very accurate and the problem is augmented with the fact that he's not athletic, fast, nor a playmaker.

But yes, lets sign him to a contract extension no way we can find anybody better than that. Its impossible....
Best post you've made so far. Also the best anti-Matt post I've seen in a while. These are issues that we've been debating about Matt Schaub for a long time.

I'm not saying you're right, or that you're wrong, but these points are at least arguable.
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Old 03-13-2013   #66
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
This simply isn't true. Schaub has a very long track record... college, Atlanta, and 7 years in Houston and his accuracy has never been an issue. He has always been among the leaders in completion percentage and the important stat: Yards per attempt.
I think what Jules is talking about is ball placement. He puts the ball in some of the darndest places. Arian's TD pass that he mentions, for instance, that might have been the best place to put that ball, away from the defender, in bounds, but Arian was going to have to make a play. I believe the pass to Andre in the endzone (the one he dropped) was similar, Aj should have come off his feet to catch that one.

The underthrown ball to Casey that was picked off...... that's been an issue since day one, one that I've brought up frequently. However, there is a quote where he says he does it on purpose to increase the odds of it being caught. 'cak's numbers & his overall completion percentage points to him being more right on that case (even though I hate it).

If you look at the two big plays Jacoby had during the play offs... both underthrown, but he had more time to locate the ball (because they were thrown high) & adjust. If they were thrown ahead of him, he'd have to run underneath it. We've seen receivers do it all the time, but we've also seen more of those passes (I think) graze fingertips, than the underthrown ones go incomplete. So I'm on the fence on the "underthrows it on purpose" argument.

& speaking of Jacoby, I think the reason he's not here, & KDub made another year, was that Matt simply didn't trust him. You go back to that Raiders game a couple years back where he was targeted 11 times & didn't catch 1 ball. Matt put those balls where Jacoby would have to do some acrobatics to have a chance & I think that was because he didn't trust Jacoby to fight off defenders.

But I've seen several throws to Walter & Daniels that were on the numbers when they had defenders on their backs.

Bottom line, his completion percentages always look good. But watching the game I can't help but question his placement.
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Old 03-13-2013   #67
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

The ravens game where he threw the pick 6 in overtime a couple years ago...

Not that throw, but the 2 pt conversion that got us to OT was intended for andre. Jacoby caught it though.
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Old 03-13-2013   #68
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

Shoot, we've seen Schaub overthrow receivers deep before, even back then with Andre Davis, who was another speedster.
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Old 03-13-2013   #69
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
So it has been customary of late to slag Schaub's arm whenever any WR is brought up. Latest example Mike Wallace - well he is too fast for Schaub. So decided to look at what we were missing out on. Since Wallace was what brought this up I looked up Big Ben first but below are some other prominent QB's (when I say thrown I mean in the air, not the result of the play):

Big Ben - 17 attempts, 4 completions, 23.5%. (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Peyton - 20 attempts, 7 completions, 35% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brady - 19 attempts, 6 completions, 31.5% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Flacco - 38 attempts, 8 completions, 21% (2 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brees - 32 attempts, 12 completions, 37.5% (4 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Rodgers - 13 attempts, 5 completions, 38% (1 completion over 40 yards thrown)

Schaub - 17 attempts, 6 completions, 35% (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)

Here's the kicker for you. All but one of those QB's had 3 TD's which were thrown over 30 yds - that was Brees with 4.

By the way that means these QB's attempted throws over 30 yds 3.9% of the time.

But what the hell, stats are meaningless.
An explosive play is considered 20 yds or more. Now you can twist the numbers how you feel,but the tape dont lie. How many times have you seen schaub just drop back on a 7 step drop and throw strikes? What about andre with a step and a half and he has to wait for the ball? They dont show up in the stat sheets, but we've seen it way too many times. You think mike wallace and torrey smith are better wrs than andre? Well both of those guys score more tds than andre because their qb can put it out there without playaction or a windup.
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Old 03-13-2013   #70
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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An explosive play is considered 20 yds or more.
You're right.


But that has absolutely nothing to do with the point Infantrycak is trying to make.
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Old 03-14-2013   #71
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
Schaub looked great until December. He looked bad after that. I don't know why. Perhaps it was his foot... Some of his underthrows late in the year were inexplicable, and it did appear he could not drive the ball like he usually can (not that he has a gun). Hopefully, it was an injury that can/will heal or some other correctable issue. I'm not worried until I see those problems continue this coming year.
Watch the Denver game and then one from the end of the season and its hard to believe they are the same guy. Was like The Hulk turning back into Chad Pennington.
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Old 03-14-2013   #72
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Watch the Denver game and then one from the end of the season and its hard to believe they are the same guy. Was like The Hulk turning back into Chad Pennington.
Yeah, some of those deep posts he tried to throw late in the year were pathetic... You seldom, if ever, see a QB step into a throw with no pressure around him and severely underthrow a post route without a safety on top of it. It was as if he was throwing a wet blanket. I hope, whatever it was, can be corrected/heal.
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Old 03-14-2013   #73
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
Yeah, some of those deep posts he tried to throw late in the year were pathetic... You seldom, if ever, see a QB step into a throw with no pressure around him and severely underthrow a post route without a safety on top of it. It was as if he was throwing a wet blanket. I hope, whatever it was, can be corrected/heal.
There's nothing to correct or heal, according to stats.
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Old 03-14-2013   #74
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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There's nothing to correct or heal, according to stats.
Yup. No point even watching the games because the stat line tells us he's Dan Marino.

Sorry but this whole thread is silly to me. Maybe I just let my "Matt Schaub Sunshine Club" dues lapse.
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Old 03-14-2013   #75
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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There's nothing to correct or heal, according to stats.
I agree with ICak. I don't think Schaub struggles with the deep pass. I think he's quite good... However, I recognize he was awful throwing downfield in December and January. I don't think Icak would disagree with that assertion.
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Old 03-14-2013   #76
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

I'd care a lot more about this "exercise in objectivity" if, for once, the findings contradicted the OP's long held stance on the issue.

Another example of someone finding the stats that supports the original opinion. When has someone on here EVER said "Player X is pretty good!" and then found numbers and came back on here and said "Whoops, my bad. Player X sucks really bad!"

Heh. It doesn't happen.

Jacoby Jones' stats heading into 2011 were miles beyond David Anderson's stats. Not even close, except in one category of drops/fumbles IIRC. All other categories, JJ's stats were consuming David's stats like a midnight snack in the hands of a growing teenager. What happened? Jacoby stumbled and bumbled his way out of Houston after 2011........only to go and perform multiple VERY CLUTCH moments with the Ravens, in both the Broncos game and the Super Bowl game, and that tells us the following: Stats. Don't. Matter. Not when you look at the grand scheme of things.

I suppose since stats are kept, we look to them for validation of a player. They're on the back of trading cards, for Pete's Sake! They MUST be worth something. In the end, though, they're just that: Stats. Congrats on your stats! Where's your rings?

Rings > Stats. All day, every day. Forever.

EXAMPLE: This is why, IMO, the Texans let Quin walk. To be honest, he wasn't very clutch heading through December. We had a lot of deep plays thrown on us in the month of December. I think we all cursed at our TVs when we watched deep passes, on multiple situations, get by our safeties. Quin might have just been more of a liability for the dollar he was about to command. Ed Reed is smarter in the defensive backfield, so maybe it's an upgrade in the eyes of the coaches. Ed has more rings and more big-game experience than Quin does. Period. For that alone, it's excusable to let Quin walk. We were going to have to spend that coin on someone, Texans weren't confident in spending THAT coin on Quin. Just as a reference on the whole stats vs. rings example I gave earlier.
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Old 03-14-2013   #77
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Another example of someone finding the stats that supports the original opinion. When has someone on here EVER said "Player X is pretty good!" and then found numbers and came back on here and said "Whoops, my bad. Player X sucks really bad!"

Heh. It doesn't happen.
We're looking at Matt's stats & saying, "See he wasn't that bad."

In another thread, we're looking at Quin's stats & saying, "See he wasn't that good."

But we all acknowledge the stats don't tell the whole story. In this particular instance, the stats were not presented to say, "Look, Schaub is a damn good QB."

They were presented to say, "Look, the gunslingers aren't as gunslingerish as you think." They're all just as conservative as Schaub & his completion percentage on those long balls is just as good.

But around here, you throw the word Stat & Matt Schaub out there & some people don't take the time to understand what context the stats are being presented.

I don't believe you can find anyone on this board to argue Matt played well in December. I may be the only one who would argue he played better in January, but some might misconstrue that & think I said he played well, so I'm not going there.
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Old 03-14-2013   #78
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
I agree with ICak. I don't think Schaub struggles with the deep pass. I think he's quite good... However, I recognize he was awful throwing downfield in December and January. I don't think Icak would disagree with that assertion.
I don't disagree with that assertion at all.

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I'd care a lot more about this "exercise in objectivity" if, for once, the findings contradicted the OP's long held stance on the issue.
What long held stance? I posted this thread with very little commentary. I explained the origin which was looking at Big Ben not Matt Schaub.

Everybody is so caught up in trying to make this a general referendum on Schaub which I have denied from the beginning.

Some of the things which struck me as interesting:

1) I was surprised to see the two guys with the biggest arms have such low completion percentages.
2) I was surprised to see the Texans were in line on trying to go down field with quite a few other teams.
3) I was surprised to see Manning and Brady had zero completions of over 40 yards thrown.
4) Frankly Flacco's regular season numbers made the Ravens post-season run more spectacular because they kept trying unsuccessfully during the season and then it paid off in the post-season.
5) I was surprised by the uniformity of TD's and the relative lack of INT's with Brees being the exception on both.
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Old 03-14-2013   #79
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
4) Frankly Flacco's regular season numbers made the Ravens post-season run more spectacular because they kept trying unsuccessfully during the season and then it paid off in the post-season.
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You have to remember the change in OC's from Cam to Caldwell factored into that disparity.
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Old 03-14-2013   #80
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by handswarmer View Post
You have to remember the change in OC's from Cam to Caldwell factored into that disparity.
another, "handswarmer really needs to go to a Raven's board"

All Infantrycak said was he was surprised about the disparity. That's it. Didn't say he didn't understand the disparity. Didn't say he needed someone to "remind him" that Caldwell is better at coaching the deep ball than Cameron.
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