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Old 03-13-2013   #41
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Good luck arguing on this thread.

Anywho, Matt Schaub is a stats QB. Good stats here, good stats there. Good stats EVERYWHERE! Yay!

The. End.
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Old 03-13-2013   #42
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by powda View Post
Relying on stats here is foolhardy. Completing a deep pass does not and never has meant a qb has a strong arm or is a great deep ball passer. This whole argument of handing out credit based on a stat line is like saying Barry Sanders must've had a great line because of the stats he put up.
This is on a very specific subject which has been brought up repeatedly on this MB. If you don't like it, walk away.

Quote:
Furthermore, this whole circus is focusing on attempts and completions. How bout lost yards and scores on most of his completions.
Again this is not a Schaub thread generally. It is on a specific issue. Long ballin'.

Quote:
Early in the season teams were burned fairly often by play action passes to the OPPOSITE side of the field. Scheme completions. It got on tape and it stopped because Schaub does not have a strong arm and is not a good deep ball passer. He's a rhythm passer who's solid in short to intermediate passes.
Talking about balls thrown in the air here. Total and complete BS on they figured out we were running play action. Kubiak/Shanahan/Walsh have been doing it for several decades now. This isn't some new oh crap Schaub is doing it mid way through his 6th season with the Texans revelation to anyone but you.

You do realize an opposite side of the field throw counter-body is one of the hardest around, right?

Again - this is not a general Schaub thread. The point here is performance on balls thrown 30+ yds.
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Old 03-13-2013   #43
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
So it has been customary of late to slag Schaub's arm whenever any WR is brought up. Latest example Mike Wallace - well he is too fast for Schaub. So decided to look at what we were missing out on. Since Wallace was what brought this up I looked up Big Ben first but below are some other prominent QB's (when I say thrown I mean in the air, not the result of the play):

Big Ben - 17 attempts, 4 completions, 23.5%. (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Peyton - 20 attempts, 7 completions, 35% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brady - 19 attempts, 6 completions, 31.5% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Flacco - 38 attempts, 8 completions, 21% (2 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brees - 32 attempts, 12 completions, 37.5% (4 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Rodgers - 13 attempts, 5 completions, 38% (1 completion over 40 yards thrown)

Schaub - 17 attempts, 6 completions, 35% (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)

Here's the kicker for you. All but one of those QB's had 3 TD's which were thrown over 30 yds - that was Brees with 4.

By the way that means these QB's attempted throws over 30 yds 3.9% of the time.

But what the hell, stats are meaningless.
whered you get these numbers from?
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Old 03-13-2013   #44
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

Schaub gets his deap plays to wide open recievers off of play action, and under throws them. Other Qbs get thier deep plays on covered WR's, and throw them open.
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Old 03-13-2013   #45
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by Jules Winnfield View Post

In the analytics era, you can pull out any statistic and make any point you want seem truthful.
Okay, do it. Pull out your stats that show Matt Schaub has trouble with the deep ball.

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Originally Posted by Jules Winnfield View Post
Nice moral victory thread and this proves once again how delusional houstonians are with their quarterback.
Again, most of the people in this thread are as cynical as you about this point. Who exactly are you referring to? If I had to guess, most of Houston is not happy with Schaub right now.

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Originally Posted by Jules Winnfield View Post
This is why we got stuck with david carr for so long. Houstonians and the front office were gutless and refused to see what they had in front of them. They kept on making rationalizations instead of making an honest analytical decision and move on from the situation.
Again, most of Houston was ready to move on from David Carr at least a season earlier than the Texans were. Proving that how Houstonians & Houston Texans' fans feel about their QB has absolutely nothing to do with why David Carr was with the Texans for so long.

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Originally Posted by Jules Winnfield View Post
Its happening again with schaub.

You people deserve matt schaub and gary kubiak.
Again, this is a totally different beast all together from David Carr. The only thing you can point at with Carr that you might argue he was successful, was his completion percentage. David Carr has never experienced any kind of success as a Houston Texans or other wise.

And David Carr had everything we consider to be Matt's weaknesses, he was (at the time) young, he was mobile, he had a cannon of an arm. He wasn't a dummy, but he had no idea how to win in this league.

Schaub is slow, has a weak arm, looks like he's 40, has all the stats you'd want from a QB, led the league in passing one year, & made two pro bowls. Getting rid of Schaub right now, would be similar to getting rid of Brees after having a successful season post shoulder injury.

It doesn't make sense.

Again, I don't consider myself a Schaub fan, not in the slightest. Prior to 2012 I was probably his most vocal critic on this board. But what we've been seeing this last year, is just crazy talk. You don't straight cut a guy like Matt Schaub if you don't have someone ready to take his place. Had Tj went on a tear last year, similar to Russel Wilson.... yeah, Schaub shouldn't have got a new contract. But he didn't.

If the Texans were concerned about Schaub's health, then they should have drafted a QB last year.. maybe Russel Wilson in the third. But they didn't. If they have concerns this year, then maybe they should.... we'll see.

But how you or I feel about it will not play a factor in their decision.
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Old 03-13-2013   #46
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by hollywood_texan View Post

Kubiak's system does not seem to allow for artistry in the QB position, but a methodical and predictable approach..
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Numbers don't lie, but they don't always tell the whole truth. I don't know if it's his arm strength or if he's not technically right, but he's nowhere as good as some of the other QBs. In this instance "seeing is believing" saying applies to me. You only have to look at that Colts game where he fluttered a pass that was picked off and then overthrew AJ for another pick.
I think what Infantrycak's numbers show is how myoptic we are. We watch every Texans' game & analyze every snap, every throw, every drop. We know how often our receivers are turning around & slowing down to catch balls.

But we don't know to the same certainty how common that is. Anquan Boldin was a beast in Arizona & Baltimore because he can locate & adjust to the ball like very few receivers in the NFL can. That's part of the game.

The numbers clearly show Matt Schaub completes those passes with the same or better percentage than everyone on that list. No one is completing more deep passes (percentage wise) than Schaub. & his attempts are in line with guys "we" drool over..... Rogers, Ben, Peyton, Brady.

The only thing separating Schaub from those guys, is wins. If you think the QB deserves all the credit he gets from wins & all the blame he gets from losses then I understand the general sentiment around here.

But if you know this is a team game, then it doesn't make sense to me.

Flacco had a decent core of receivers when he came into the league. Mason I remember. But they said they have to get better at the skill position to go deep into the play offs. They went & got Boldin, they went & got Torrey Smith, & they picked up Pitta. The Falcons knew they would need more than Tony Gonzales & Roddy White to win (just win) in the post season, they moved up several spots to get Julio Jones.

Why is it that we think we should have won the Super Bowl by now, with Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, David Anderson, & Jacoby Jones? If you blame Kubiak & Rick Smith for that, then why take your anger out on Schaub?

Again, I wanted nothing more, than for Tj Yates to light it up last season.. but he didn't. Schaub got his job back. That's the way it goes.
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Old 03-13-2013   #47
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by Jules Winnfield View Post
the problem is almost all of schaubs deep throws are off of play action and augmented with threatening running game.

THOSE ARE IDEAL LONG PASSING PLAYS AND YET SCHAUB STILL HAS TROUBLE MAKING THEM.

Some of those guys on those list they dont always work off of play action because of their respective system. Schaub will only throw the long ball if its the play his twin brother gary calls. Conservative gary will only choose long passing plays if its ideal and needed. Those other guys, their degree of difficulty is much greater than schaub. Throwing the deep ball is just one of many problems with matt schaub.

In the analytics era, you can pull out any statistic and make any point you want seem truthful.

Nice moral victory thread and this proves once again how delusional houstonians are with their quarterback.

This is why we got stuck with david carr for so long. Houstonians and the front office were gutless and refused to see what they had in front of them. They kept on making rationalizations instead of making an honest analytical decision and move on from the situation.

Its happening again with schaub.

You people deserve matt schaub and gary kubiak.
While it may be true that you can misrepresent stats, it isn't true that all statistics are misrepresented. I think this is a pretty good application of statistics. I do analytical work all of the time and have made quite a few changes that contradicted what everybody "knew" to be true. At the same time there is always pressure to "tell a story with statistics" and that can be done too. The only criticisim of this particular statistic would be that it is a small sample size (though there are ways to deal with that) but it is hard to argue to the contrary. Perhaps you could find an alternative to that statistic which proves the contrary?

With HWWNBN it was a slightly different situation. The only statistic in his favor was his completion percentage. Every other statistic pointed to him being less than adequate (I carried his banner for a little too long admitidly but it was a lesson in analytics for me). What are the stats you would use to suggest that Schaub doesn't have a good arm or is a sub par QB?

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Old 03-13-2013   #48
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
So it has been customary of late to slag Schaub's arm whenever any WR is brought up. Latest example Mike Wallace - well he is too fast for Schaub. So decided to look at what we were missing out on. Since Wallace was what brought this up I looked up Big Ben first but below are some other prominent QB's (when I say thrown I mean in the air, not the result of the play):

Big Ben - 17 attempts, 4 completions, 23.5%. (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Peyton - 20 attempts, 7 completions, 35% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brady - 19 attempts, 6 completions, 31.5% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Flacco - 38 attempts, 8 completions, 21% (2 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brees - 32 attempts, 12 completions, 37.5% (4 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Rodgers - 13 attempts, 5 completions, 38% (1 completion over 40 yards thrown)

Schaub - 17 attempts, 6 completions, 35% (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)

Here's the kicker for you. All but one of those QB's had 3 TD's which were thrown over 30 yds - that was Brees with 4.

By the way that means these QB's attempted throws over 30 yds 3.9% of the time.

But what the hell, stats are meaningless.
This doesn't pass my litmus test, so I went digging..

For 20+ yard completions, I show that he was 16th in the league with 46 completions of 20+ yards. He was also what 14th with 8 long balls of 40+ yards or more.

Not only do the stats contradict yours, but in general the eyeball test for Matt is he doesn't have good ball placement has to be on a schedule, or else he's very inefficient. I still think Matt is a system QB, and that's all he'll ever be, but that's all Kubiak wants though IMHO.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...ualified=false
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Old 03-13-2013   #49
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by silvrhand View Post
This doesn't pass my litmus test, so I went digging..

For 20+ yard completions, I show that he was 16th in the league with 46 completions of 20+ yards. He was also what 14th with 8 long balls of 40+ yards or more.

Not only do the stats contradict yours, but in general the eyeball test for Matt is he doesn't have good ball placement has to be on a schedule, or else he's very inefficient. I still think Matt is a system QB, and that's all he'll ever be, but that's all Kubiak wants though IMHO.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...ualified=false
You're looking at plays of 20+ total yards, whereas Cak was showing passes of 30+ yards in the air, regardless of the result.
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Old 03-13-2013   #50
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
So it has been customary of late to slag Schaub's arm whenever any WR is brought up. Latest example Mike Wallace - well he is too fast for Schaub. So decided to look at what we were missing out on. Since Wallace was what brought this up I looked up Big Ben first but below are some other prominent QB's (when I say thrown I mean in the air, not the result of the play):

Big Ben - 17 attempts, 4 completions, 23.5%. (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Peyton - 20 attempts, 7 completions, 35% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brady - 19 attempts, 6 completions, 31.5% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Flacco - 38 attempts, 8 completions, 21% (2 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brees - 32 attempts, 12 completions, 37.5% (4 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Rodgers - 13 attempts, 5 completions, 38% (1 completion over 40 yards thrown)

Schaub - 17 attempts, 6 completions, 35% (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)

Here's the kicker for you. All but one of those QB's had 3 TD's which were thrown over 30 yds - that was Brees with 4.

By the way that means these QB's attempted throws over 30 yds 3.9% of the time.

But what the hell, stats are meaningless.
Color me dumb but I cannot understand these 'stats'. Further explanation please?
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Old 03-13-2013   #51
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Talking about balls thrown in the air here. Total and complete BS on they figured out we were running play action. Kubiak/Shanahan/Walsh have been doing it for several decades now.
I dont really see much that undermines my post. And your stance on Kubiak, Shanahan, Walsh having been there done that is asinine. Apparently no one in the NFL is capable of conjuring new plays/schemes because its all been said and done.
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Old 03-13-2013   #52
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
You can attempt to frost this cake any way you want. I am sorry but over the course of a season and multiple different styled QB's your rationales fall away. At the end of the day the results weren't better on big plays. Someone should be really standing out particularly with this class of comparisons to lowly Schaub. You would think the holders of 9 SB rings would easily shine against Schaub with stats on this issue.



I used the same source for all of them. I doubt ESPN was biased for Schaub.

Don't get caught up in the minutiae. The fact is these big names were not flinging the ball around 30+ yds with a great deal more success than Schaub. Y'all can rationalize it away all you want but that is a fact.
Lol..i-cak i'm on your side in this debate my man, i just don't see the correlation you're trying to make with pass attempts and completions with completing the long ball. Just b/c the qb is better or you throw the ball more doesn't necessarily mean that you will be or should be completing passes of 40+ yards or more than everyone else....we agree there. My point however is that there are too many factors that contribute to that stat for it to be as cut and dry as you're presenting it.


Matt Stafford threw the ball 727 times last year...by far the most in the league. Yet he only attempted to throw the ball 40+ yds 25 times for a grand total of 7 completions...28%...pretty much right in line with the other qb's you listed in your initial post (stats from ESPN). You don't think the fact that opposing defenses know their offense is based primarily on them throwing it up to Calvin Johnson had any effect on that completion % and how they played them? or how about the fact that their defense couldn't stop anyone so they found themselves down big in a lot of 4th qtrs or the fact that their run game was trash? That stuff matters more than people like to admit.

With Kubiak's stubborn conservative ass playcalling, we overly commit to the run and i'm sure the pass plays he does call for Schaub throughout the course of games are high % designed to keep us in 3rd and short situations where we can run or pass. Hell, how many times have we all complained about the playcalling in 3rd and long situations and Kubiak calls a freakin draw? His playcalling is 1 of the biggest detriments to Schaub and our offense at times; I'm convinced now more than ever.
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Old 03-13-2013   #53
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

Ok, lemme help you guys out. On ESPN and many other site, you can look at the "Splits" section of any player to get a boatload of situational information. For Schaub go here: http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits...15/matt-schaub

If you look at the bottom of Schaub's page, you can see passes by distance, which is what Cak is using to create those stats. You can do this for any QB, and find similar stats for other positions. The one important to the discussion is passes of 31+ yards. You can see the ranges in this pic:



Note that these are passes in the air, which is why it shows incompletions. If Schaub throws a pass to Foster at the LOS and he runs it 80 yards for a TD, it won't be in the 31-40 stat shown, but it would show up in the stats Silvrhand was looking at as a 40+ yard play. That's the big difference. Check out Schaub's 21-30 yard passes to see his big deficiency.

The second set of stats in that list shows Schaub's stats based on field position. If you look at the 19-GOAL line, you can see his Red Zone stats. However, don't combine the 19-GOAL and 10-GOAL or you will be double-counting the stats. Schaub had 22 TDs this year, 14 of which came from the Red Zone.
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Old 03-13-2013   #54
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

One of you stat gurus find me the number of completions Schaub has thrown where he underthrew the receiver and it cost yards and/or a TD. I've watched it.
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Old 03-13-2013   #55
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
One of you stat gurus find me the number of completions Schaub has thrown where he underthrew the receiver and it cost yards and/or a TD. I've watched it.
Yes, Matt Schaub sometimes makes imperfect passes. I'm not sure your point. Schaub is a good QB (somewhere between the 7th-15th best in the NFL), depending on the season, system, and personal preferences. Other than my 12 year old son, I don't think anyone is arguing he is in the class of Brady and Rodgers. Schaub played poorly the last two months last year. Nobody knows why but we hope it doesn't continue. What else needs to be said?
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Old 03-13-2013   #56
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

Matt needed the high altitude in Denver to hit WR's in stride on the long ball. That game is literally the only one that I can remember him throwing the long ball well in 2012.
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Old 03-13-2013   #57
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
One of you stat gurus find me the number of completions Schaub has thrown where he underthrew the receiver and it cost yards and/or a TD. I've watched it.
Why do u keep bringing this up like he's the only qb who does this with regularity? Seriously, why act like this isn't the case for every single qb in the league? Again, go back and watch the superbowl. Flacco severely underthrew a wide open Jacoby Jones...Jones made the play to come back to the ball and wound up turning that into a TD...If the db was even remotely where he needed to be that's probably an incomplete pass /pick.

Every qb in the league underthrows/overthrows or misplaces throws to WR's in every game they play at least 4-6 times a game. The difference many of the times is the guy they're throwing to, whether he can make a better play on the ball than the db. That's why guys like Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald are coveted..they can turn bad decisions/throws into good ones.
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Old 03-13-2013   #58
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by silvrhand View Post
This doesn't pass my litmus test, so I went digging..

For 20+ yard completions, I show that he was 16th in the league with 46 completions of 20+ yards. He was also what 14th with 8 long balls of 40+ yards or more.

Not only do the stats contradict yours, but in general the eyeball test for Matt is he doesn't have good ball placement has to be on a schedule, or else he's very inefficient. I still think Matt is a system QB, and that's all he'll ever be, but that's all Kubiak wants though IMHO.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...ualified=false
How many QBs aren't system QBs? Manning, Brady, Rogers... to a lesser degree Brees (had one good year pre Sean Payton). Luck. Hell RG3 (I'm a fan of his btw) has to be in the right system. Outside of those guys, how many guys can you put in a different system and expect the same kind of performance? (This is just off of the top of my head, I may have missed a few).



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Old 03-13-2013   #59
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

Since we're doing eye tests... Most of the top QBs in the league have one (or more) receivers that make great catches. Can somebody please come up with a list of top QBs that don't have receivers that bail them out? I really can't think of any. Brees throws to Colston, Flacco has Boldin and Smith. Hell Jacoby Jones made a phenominal move to score a TD on an underthrown ball. Which QBs don't have receivers that make phenominal plays and make them look great?

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Old 03-13-2013   #60
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by Texanmike02 View Post
Since we're doing eye tests... Most of the top QBs in the league have one (or more) receivers that make great catches. Can somebody please come up with a list of top QBs that don't have receivers that bail them out? I really can't think of any. Brees throws to Colston, Flacco had Boldin and Smith. Hell Jacoby Jones made a phenominal move to score a TD on an underthrown ball. Which QBs don't have receivers that make phenominal plays and make them look great?

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