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Old 03-12-2013   #21
Jules Winnfield
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by dalemurphy View Post
Schaub looked great until December. He looked bad after that. I don't know why. Perhaps it was his foot... Some of his underthrows late in the year were inexplicable, and it did appear he could not drive the ball like he usually can (not that he has a gun). Hopefully, it was an injury that can/will heal or some other correctable issue. I'm not worried until I see those problems continue this coming year.

matt's accuracy has always been a problem even before his injury. Just look at the film, even short passes he has trouble making accurate throws. That's why you always see receivers having to make high difficulty catches on simple crossing patterns.

my god even his check down passes are horrible. How many times have you seen owen daniels having to make crazy catches on the account of schaub? Look at that last playoff game, horrible throw to andre in the end zone, horrible passes to casey, owen daniels where an accurate throw to a pass no longer than 20 yards would have netted a first down.

If we had a lesser tight end instead of a pro bowl caliber one, this weakness would be glaring much brighter. Even some of the throws to arian foster were ridiculously bad, that one throw vs jets or bears i think where foster had to lunge all out to grab a touch down pass just shows matt's accuracy problem.

With all that being said, matt's biggest problem is not his arm strength but his decision making. That is matt's biggest weakness IMO. He has shaky decision making, not very accurate and the problem is augmented with the fact that he's not athletic, fast, nor a playmaker.

But yes, lets sign him to a contract extension no way we can find anybody better than that. Its impossible....
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Old 03-12-2013   #22
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
If you go back and read my post in the Mike Wallace thread, I never said the word "arm". Getting the ball to the receiver (in stride) down the field has a lot more involved than just pure arm strength. Been watching Schaub underthrow receivers due to whatever bad mechanics since the very first 70 yard TD to AJ back in '07.

This year, the most telling play was when Schaub rolled out on a play action bootleg, planted, surveyed the field, had all damn day to throw it, and then underthrew Casey by at least a couple yards, for an inexcusable INT. Tell me what stat that falls under.
That's the play I was referring to in my post too. But the game was preceded by a bunch of other ****ty performance by him and the offense.
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Old 03-12-2013   #23
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
So it has been customary of late to slag Schaub's arm whenever any WR is brought up. Latest example Mike Wallace - well he is too fast for Schaub. So decided to look at what we were missing out on. Since Wallace was what brought this up I looked up Big Ben first but below are some other prominent QB's (when I say thrown I mean in the air, not the result of the play):

Big Ben - 17 attempts, 4 completions, 23.5%. (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Peyton - 20 attempts, 7 completions, 35% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brady - 19 attempts, 6 completions, 31.5% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Flacco - 38 attempts, 8 completions, 21% (2 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brees - 32 attempts, 12 completions, 37.5% (4 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Rodgers - 13 attempts, 5 completions, 38% (1 completion over 40 yards thrown)

Schaub - 17 attempts, 6 completions, 35% (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)

Here's the kicker for you. All but one of those QB's had 3 TD's which were thrown over 30 yds - that was Brees with 4.

By the way that means these QB's attempted throws over 30 yds 3.9% of the time.

But what the hell, stats are meaningless.
Any idea how many INTs each of them made during these passes?
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Old 03-12-2013   #24
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
If you go back and read my post in the Mike Wallace thread, I never said the word "arm".
I didn't quote you because I wasn't trying to make it particular post - just what it lead me to look up.

Quote:
This year, the most telling play was when Schaub rolled out on a play action bootleg, planted, surveyed the field, had all damn day to throw it, and then underthrew Casey by at least a couple yards, for an inexcusable INT. Tell me what stat that falls under.
He had 0 INT's on passes thrown over 30 yds (the other QB's combined for 5).

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Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
Any idea how many INTs each of them made during these passes?
I remember Brees had 3 of the 5 INT's and then two others had 1 each. Edit - Peyton and Rodgers had 1 each.

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Originally Posted by powda View Post
Rep. People can and will spin stats how they like. Watch the games.
I am sorry but at some point the eyeball test says more about the beholder. If these other QB's are so much better at slinging the ball, over the course of 4000 pass attempts it should be reflected. Bottom line, folks are being anti-homers on Schaub and the Texans from Rodgers not even attempting to throw the ball down field as much to Flacco being wildly inaccurate with his big gun of an arm. I would have bet money people's eyes would have said Rodgers threw down field more often and Flacco was more accurate.
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Old 03-12-2013   #25
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by Jules Winnfield View Post
matt's accuracy has always been a problem even before his injury. Just look at the film, even short passes he has trouble making accurate throws. That's why you always see receivers having to make high difficulty catches on simple crossing patterns.

my god even his check down passes are horrible. How many times have you seen owen daniels having to make crazy catches on the account of schaub? Look at that last playoff game, horrible throw to andre in the end zone, horrible passes to casey, owen daniels where an accurate throw to a pass no longer than 20 yards would have netted a first down.

If we had a lesser tight end instead of a pro bowl caliber one, this weakness would be glaring much brighter. Even some of the throws to arian foster were ridiculously bad, that one throw vs jets or bears i think where foster had to lunge all out to grab a touch down pass just shows matt's accuracy problem.

With all that being said, matt's biggest problem is not his arm strength but his decision making. That is matt's biggest weakness IMO. He has shaky decision making, not very accurate and the problem is augmented with the fact that he's not athletic, fast, nor a playmaker.

But yes, lets sign him to a contract extension no way we can find anybody better than that. Its impossible....
This simply isn't true. Schaub has a very long track record... college, Atlanta, and 7 years in Houston and his accuracy has never been an issue. He has always been among the leaders in completion percentage and the important stat: Yards per attempt.

You can argue that he is limited athletically, that he is brittle, etc... but arguing that he is not accurate means that you either don't know football or you have a negative bias against him that has colored your perspective.
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Old 03-12-2013   #26
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by Texan_Bill View Post
I heard a very interesting interview (a while back) with none other than Dante Pastorini, who BTW had a very strong arm. He suggested that it wasn't Schaub's arm strength as it was as much as his footwork and his progressions.. He suggested that Schaub commits a little too much to progressions rather than commit to the deep ball. Dan went on to say (and I'm paraphrasing here) that if Schaub committed to throwing the deep ball as the first option, he (Schaub) could make the throw. Dan went onto say (again, paraphrasing) that people that think Schaub has a weak arm, just don't know what they're watching..

I believe Dan.
Y'all are so busy fighting amongst yourselves that none of y'all took the time to read my post about Dan Pastorini's assessement of Schaub..
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Old 03-12-2013   #27
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by Texan_Bill View Post
Y'all are so busy fighting amongst yourselves that none of y'all took the time to read my post about Dan Pastorini's assessement of Schaub..
I don't know if committing to progressions is such a bad thing. He's make the reads and figuring out the best receiver to throw it too. Maybe he's trying too hard and overthinks plays?
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Old 03-12-2013   #28
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by Texan_Bill View Post
Y'all are so busy fighting amongst yourselves that none of y'all took the time to read my post about Dan Pastorini's assessement of Schaub..
cough - I specifically referenced you and him.
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Old 03-12-2013   #29
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

Great post I-cak but u know folks here don't see the whole picture......largely b/c they don't want to. I watch every team play at least 1 game every year...and that's being conservative....every qb in the league has at 4-6 passes a game where his WR's makes him look good by catching passes that aren't quite where they should be.

Go back and look at Flacco's TD pass to a wide open Jacoby Jones behind the defense in the SB. Easy pitch and catch right? look how much Jacoby had to slow down to make that catch...if that's Schaub who makes that throw, people here are losing their minds..It was only a TD b/c Jones had the presence of mind to get back up after he fell catching the severely underthrown ball and make a few moves. The stat officially goes to both, however Jones is the guy who primarily made that happen, not Flacco.
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Old 03-12-2013   #30
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
But what the hell, stats are meaningless.
They aren't meaningless they just don't tell the whole story. You want to convince people who watch Schaub consistently over throw wide open WR's you're going to need more than completion percentage and passes attempted.
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Old 03-12-2013   #31
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by mussop View Post
They aren't meaningless they just don't tell the whole story. You want to convince people who watch Schaub consistently over throw wide open WR's you're going to need more than completion percentage and passes attempted.
I didn't claim he over throws. But I will say when you look at 4000 passes, with 4 likely hall of famers and 2 other guys with SB rings and the overall efficiency comes out looking very similar then I think it is pretty damn strong evidence people's eyes/disappointment with the team are fooling them more than reality.

I am sure all 7 of the 40+ yard throws by Peyton/Brady were perfectly thrown/drops/perfectly defended/whatever freaking excuse or there would have been at least one completion and Schaub's 3 of 4 completions were all despite being a horribly inaccurate, noodle armed, backup only quality QB.

People are missing a significant reason for this thread - 30+ yard throws are rare, 40+ are hens teeth (.325% of pass attempts by high end to elite QB's).
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Old 03-12-2013   #32
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by hollywood_texan View Post
Maybe the timing issue is really about Kubiak's system and play calling?

Kubiak's system does not seem to allow for artistry in the QB position, but a methodical and predictable approach.

From what I see with my own eyes, and stats are not going to persuade me otherwise, the Texans have a problem with the deep ball.
I tend to agree with this....Kubiak's playcalling has more to do with whats going on with schaub than people want to believe. he's conservative by nature, you have to figure that some of his coaching to Schaub has been "make the safe plays" essentially only allowing for chances to be taken throwing the ball when guys are wide open....or when we have to. And schaub's progressions are most definitely short to deep 8 out of 10 times.

Mixing things up more would also help a lot too.
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Old 03-12-2013   #33
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by TexanSam View Post
I don't know if committing to progressions is such a bad thing. He's make the reads and figuring out the best receiver to throw it too. Maybe he's trying too hard and overthinks plays?
No.... Progression is not a bad thing at all. Pastorini was suggesting that sometimes Schaub shouldn't worry about progressions but rather trust that AJ (or whoever) would beat their man deep and commit to that throw.

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cough - I specifically referenced you and him.
My bad Bro... I missed that.
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Old 03-12-2013   #34
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by Mr teX View Post
I tend to agree with this....Kubiak's playcalling has more to do with whats going on with schaub than people want to believe. he's conservative by nature, you have to figure that some of his coaching to Schaub has been "make the safe plays" essentially only allowing for chances to be taken throwing the ball when guys are wide open....or when we have to. And schaub's progressions are most definitely short to deep 8 out of 10 times.

Mixing things up more would also help a lot too.
OK but if Kubiak is so conservative and Schaub is only supposed to attempt hitting wide open WR's wouldn't that lead to non-conservative folks like Manning, Brady, etc. with better WR corps having more attempts and completions?
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Old 03-12-2013   #35
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
So it has been customary of late to slag Schaub's arm whenever any WR is brought up. Latest example Mike Wallace - well he is too fast for Schaub. So decided to look at what we were missing out on. Since Wallace was what brought this up I looked up Big Ben first but below are some other prominent QB's (when I say thrown I mean in the air, not the result of the play):

Big Ben - 17 attempts, 4 completions, 23.5%. (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Peyton - 20 attempts, 7 completions, 35% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brady - 19 attempts, 6 completions, 31.5% (no completions over 40 yards thrown)
Flacco - 38 attempts, 8 completions, 21% (2 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Brees - 32 attempts, 12 completions, 37.5% (4 completions over 40 yards thrown)
Rodgers - 13 attempts, 5 completions, 38% (1 completion over 40 yards thrown)

Schaub - 17 attempts, 6 completions, 35% (3 completions over 40 yards thrown)

Here's the kicker for you. All but one of those QB's had 3 TD's which were thrown over 30 yds - that was Brees with 4.

By the way that means these QB's attempted throws over 30 yds 3.9% of the time.

But what the hell, stats are meaningless.
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They aren't meaningless they just don't tell the whole story. You want to convince people who watch Schaub consistently over throw wide open WR's you're going to need more than completion percentage and passes attempted.
Actually over throw was a poor statement. What I meant to say was that if you want to convince people who watch Schaub consistently throw inaccurate deep passes.
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Old 03-12-2013   #36
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
OK but if Kubiak is so conservative and Schaub is only supposed to attempt hitting wide open WR's wouldn't that lead to non-conservative folks like Manning, Brady, etc. with better WR corps having more attempts and completions?
No not really. It's all in how a defense plays you as an offense, what your offense is built upon (bread and butter) and truthfully how the games go.......obviously if you're a team that likes to sling it, teams will run more nickel and dime packages to discourage you from doing what u like to do...

For instance, In blowouts the winning team tends to throw less while the losing team kicks it up a few notches in passing attempts. Spread offenses bread and butter are the short passes which typically = more attempts run based offenses like ours tend to throw it a little less.

There are also other factors. Manning has an entire offense designed around him...he's got complete control to do whatever; audible run to pass or vice versa.
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Old 03-12-2013   #37
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
He had 0 INT's on passes thrown over 30 yds (the other QB's combined for 5).
I don't trust your stats.

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1-10-HOU 30 (4:19) (Run formation) 8-M.Schaub pass deep middle intended for 86-J.Casey INTERCEPTED by 23-V.Davis at IND 35. 23-V.Davis to HOU 39 for 26 yards (81-O.Daniels).
That's 35 yards in the air, intercepted by Vontae Davis.
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Old 03-12-2013   #38
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

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Originally Posted by Mr teX View Post
No not really. .
You can attempt to frost this cake any way you want. I am sorry but over the course of a season and multiple different styled QB's your rationales fall away. At the end of the day the results weren't better on big plays. Someone should be really standing out particularly with this class of comparisons to lowly Schaub. You would think the holders of 9 SB rings would easily shine against Schaub with stats on this issue.

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I don't trust your stats.

That's 35 yards in the air, intercepted by Vontae Davis.
I used the same source for all of them. I doubt ESPN was biased for Schaub.

Don't get caught up in the minutiae. The fact is these big names were not flinging the ball around 30+ yds with a great deal more success than Schaub. Y'all can rationalize it away all you want but that is a fact.
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Old 03-12-2013   #39
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

Quote:
Originally Posted by infantrycak View Post
I used the same source for all of them. I doubt ESPN was biased for Schaub.
*shrug* ... I just copied and pasted from the play-by-play on NFL.com.
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Old 03-13-2013   #40
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Default Re: The Myth of the Long Ball & Matt Schaub

Relying on stats here is foolhardy. Completing a deep pass does not and never has meant a qb has a strong arm or is a great deep ball passer. This whole argument of handing out credit based on a stat line is like saying Barry Sanders must've had a great line because of the stats he put up.

Furthermore, this whole circus is focusing on attempts and completions. How bout lost yards and scores on most of his completions. Again and again receivers a mile open had to wait for the ball while defenders got back in the play. Early in the season teams were burned fairly often by play action passes to the OPPOSITE side of the field. Scheme completions. It got on tape and it stopped because Schaub does not have a strong arm and is not a good deep ball passer. He's a rhythm passer who's solid in short to intermediate passes.
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