Matt Schaub, Pattern Unlocked

[eriadoc]

I think I've figured it out! Matt Schaub only plays half the football game well, and it alternates year-by-year. in 2007, he posted a QB rating of 92.0 in the first half and 80.8 in the second half. There's some disparity there, but it was his first year as a starter, so he was just getting it going. In 2008, he posted a 1st half QB rating of 87.6 and a 2nd half of 97.7. The wobble is getting bigger, and now the 2nd half is better than the 1st. In 2009, he posted a 1st half rating of 109.3 and a 2nd half rating of 87.6. So again, the reversal of halves and the disparity is growing. Last year, 2010, we all remember the miserable 1st halves and incredible 2nd halves, so there's no surprise to see that trend supported by the rating. His 1st half rating was a dismal 79.3, while his 2nd half rating was 103.9. So this year, if the trend continues, we should expect to see a high 1st half rating and a poor 2nd half rating. Well, we're only 5 games in, so we'll have to see how it turns out at the end of the season, but so far, he has a stellar 109.6 rating in the first half, while posting an absolutely miserable 71.1 rating in the second half. So we may have an entire season of this to look forward to, if you believe in trends.

I actually looked up his stats quarter-by-quarter on NFL.com and throughout his career, in alternate years, his worst quarters of football have come in the 1st and 3rd quarters. This year has broken the trend somewhat because he's merely bad in the 3rd quarter, with a 78.5 rating so far. His 4th quarter rating so far this year is 67.0. He's going to have to flip flop his 3rd and 4th quarter numbers if he wants his trend to continue.

Some of this post was intended to be taken facetiously. I leave it to the reader to figure it out.

[Ryan]

I did a couple minutes of research on Schaub looking at per game stats since 2007, and we are 9-13 when he throws for over 300 yards, and 2-7 over the past two seasons. So when we don't run the ball well we rarely win.

[Dutchrudder]

So you're saying his come-back attempt was half-hearted?

[eriadoc]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

So you're saying his come-back attempt was half-hearted?

I think I'm saying that HWWNBN is half the QB Schaub is. Unfortunately, that half alternates from year to year.

It's that damn jersey number.

[Hervoyel]

Originally Posted by eriadoc

I think I'm saying that HWWNBN is half the QB Schaub is. Unfortunately, that half alternates from year to year.

It's that damn jersey number.

For some reason this reminds me of "Walk Hard"

Pa Cox: You're not half the boy Nate was. You're not even half the boy that the top half of Nate was after you cut him in half.
Dewey - Age 8: So you're saying I'm less than a quarter of the boy Nate was?

Sorry, I'm off topic.

[Double Barrel]

I hate to admit it (because I like Schaub and want him to do well as our QB), but it's starting to be obvious that he's less Manning/Brady/Rogers and more Trent Dilfer/Brad Johnson. All these QBs have rings, btw, so this is not an underhanded diss but more of a pragmatic awakening of sorts.

Schaub is not a QB that will take the game on his shoulders and win it. He's the type of QB that can help be part of a good squad that wins games by avoiding self-destructive mistakes. Sure, he is capable of winning games, and has and probably will some more. But for every win that he's taken on his shoulders, there will another game that he tried and failed. Yesterday was a prime example. He marched them down the field into scoring position...and lays an egg.

[eriadoc]

Originally Posted by Double Barrel

I hate to admit it (because I like Schaub and want him to do well as our QB), but it's starting to be obvious that he's less Manning/Brady/Rogers and more Trent Dilfer/Brad Johnson. All these QBs have rings, btw, so this is not an underhanded diss but more of a pragmatic awakening of sorts.

Schaub is not a QB that will take the game on his shoulders and win it. He's the type of QB that can help be part of a good squad that wins games by avoiding self-destructive mistakes. Sure, he is capable of winning games, and has and probably will some more. But for every win that he's taken on his shoulders, there will another game that he tried and failed. Yesterday was a prime example. He marched them down the field into scoring position...and lays an egg.

In all seriousness, the growing disparity between good Matt and bad Matt is what's alarming. If bad Matt was 80% of what good Matt was, then I don't think we'd see the wheels come off quite so much. But when he's posting ratings that are 40 points apart, there are some issues.

[HJam72]

Kubiak?

Designated plays first half.

On the fly second half.

Somebody give Schaub some energy bars at half-time.

Somebody give our O-line some energy bars at half-time.

Negative impact from half-time speech?

[Vinny]

Is it Schaub or is it the fact that Kubiak doesn't coach well on the fly and is frequently outcoached once teams make adjustments to our game plans?

[IDEXAN]

Originally Posted by Double Barrel

I hate to admit it (because I like Schaub and want him to do well as our QB), but it's starting to be obvious that he's less Manning/Brady/Rogers and more Trent Dilfer/Brad Johnson. All these QBs have rings, btw, so this is not an underhanded diss but more of a pragmatic awakening of sorts.

Manning would have been even less capable of running that ball into the EZ to
win Sundays game than Schaub, and that takes nothing away from him still being one of the all-time greatest QBs, so that leaves Schaub (and Manning)
with only the option of winning the game with a completed forward pass.
Has there been a definitive explanation yet about the communication between
Schaub & JJ in that situation ? I mean did JJ do what he was supposed to do and break in the right direction and Schaub just not throw the pass he was expected to, or did JJ not break in the right direction, or do we even know those things ?

[dinkatoid]

Originally Posted by Double Barrel

it's starting to be obvious that he's less Manning/Brady/Rogers and more Trent Dilfer/Brad Johnson. .

The good news is that usually having Andre Johnson helps from actually being Dilfer or Johnson...

[Double Barrel]

Originally Posted by Vinny

Is it Schaub or is it the fact that Kubiak doesn't coach well on the fly and is frequently outcoached once teams make adjustments to our game plans?

I think Schaub it a competent QB. I tend to believe that coaching is not putting him in position to play to his strengths and avoid his weaknesses.

Originally Posted by IDEXAN

Manning would have been even less capable of running that ball into the EZ to
win Sundays game than Schaub, and that takes nothing away from him still being one of the all-time greatest QBs, so that leaves Schaub (and Manning)
with only the option of winning the game with a completed forward pass.
Has there been a definitive explanation yet about the communication between
Schaub & JJ in that situation ? I mean did JJ do what he was supposed to do and break in the right direction and Schaub just not throw the pass he was expected to, or did JJ not break in the right direction, or do we even know those things ?

Situational awareness. Manning would have taken the drop, seen nothing, and thrown the ball away. That leaves 4-5 seconds on the clock.

Is that coaching or player instinct? Combo of both?

Schaub should have had the instinct to know the play was covered/busted and saved some time for another play. That he did what he did is not all on him, simply because the entire play was indicative of the current state of this franchise. Busting ass to get in position but shooting themselves in the foot when the win is within reach.

[Vinny]

Originally Posted by Double Barrel

Situational awareness. Manning would have taken the drop, seen nothing, and thrown the ball away. That leaves 4-5 seconds on the clock.

Is that coaching or player instinct? Combo of both?

Schaub should have had the instinct to know the play was covered/busted and saved some time for another play. That he did what he did is not all on him, simply because the entire play was indicative of the current state of this franchise. Busting ass to get in position but shooting themselves in the foot when the win is within reach.

it's been said many times that teams take on the personality of it's head coach. Viola!

[Vinny]

Originally Posted by Double Barrel

Situational awareness. Manning would have taken the drop, seen nothing, and thrown the ball away. That leaves 4-5 seconds on the clock.

Is that coaching or player instinct? Combo of both?

Schaub should have had the instinct to know the play was covered/busted and saved some time for another play. That he did what he did is not all on him, simply because the entire play was indicative of the current state of this franchise. Busting ass to get in position but shooting themselves in the foot when the win is within reach.

it's been said many times that teams take on the personality of its head coach. Viola!

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by Double Barrel

Schaub should have had the instinct to know the play was covered/busted and saved some time for another play.

Have you had a chance to watch it again?

I think Walter was as open as you could expect & Dressen while not wide open, it would have been worth throwing the ball in there. Either at Walter or Dressen...

I don't think the play was either covered or busted.

[eriadoc]

Originally Posted by Vinny

Is it Schaub or is it the fact that Kubiak doesn't coach well on the fly and is frequently outcoached once teams make adjustments to our game plans?

This will be my 3rd season on the Fire Kubiak bandwagon, AKA Pink Soap Brigade. So I'm no fan of Kubiak, to be sure. And while I think that there's certainly an element of what you're saying, I keep stumbling on the fact that the halves alternate. So in odd-numbered years they come out and score TDs on the opening drive and play competitively in the first half, but then come out flat after the half. But in even-numbered years, they come out flat to start the game and then make halftime adjustments that work. WTF is that all about?

I think we've more or less seen what Schaub is, and that would be OK except for this growing disparity between "Good Matt" and "Bad Matt". Every QB has good stretches and bad stretches, and they're obviously affected by a hundred factors in the game. But for the extremes that Schaub is displaying, and the disparity is getting worse each year, that's on Matt to a large degree. It's exacerbated by a ton of different things, obviously, but I have to point to Schaub on that.

[eriadoc]

Thunderkyss' first comment in Steph's thread about Matt Schaub prompted me to go look up this old thread. The 2012 season for Schaub was not a season where halves of games went differently, so he fixed that trend. The first half of the season was very different from the second half of the season, however. I'm not claiming anything except that stats can be funny sometimes. It's interesting to me is all.

What is worth noting is Schaub's rating in the last two minutes of the half. The past two seasons it's been 63.2 ('11) and 68.3 ('12). It was 71 in '10 and 80-something in '09.

[76Texan]

Schaub didn't play well at the end of the season; that's all I know.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by eriadoc

What is worth noting is Schaub's rating in the last two minutes of the half. The past two seasons it's been 63.2 ('11) and 68.3 ('12). It was 71 in '10 and 80-something in '09.

First.... where are you finding these stats? Who has so little time that they bother tracking them?


Second... according to these stats, one could argue that not only is Matt not clutch.... he's getting & has been getting worse.



Uh-oh.

[eriadoc]

Originally Posted by thunderkyss

First.... where are you finding these stats? Who has so little time that they bother tracking them?

NFL.com, click on the player's page (career stats) and then there's a link to situational stats. All sorts of good stuff in there.