WR catch rate: Texans

[badboy]

Originally Posted by thunderkyss

Very interesting. What's it all mean?

Basically it means our new guys Martin, Jean and Posey sucked.

[Texan_Bill]

Originally Posted by Norg

well at least we are throwing to the right guy andre needs his touches i say keep on throwing to #80 till they can stop it

For as awesome as AJ is, his TD % isn't all that great for a prolific receiver as he is. Sure, he's made some fantastic, highlight receptions for TD's, but they dont target him nearly enough.

That said, I get it. Teams target #80, but the play calling needs to be much better at or inside the 20 as to make him a target again. That means there has got to be other viable options. The Texans haven't really been impressive in the supposed "Red Zone" for the last two years.

[sandman]

Originally Posted by Texan_Bill

For as awesome as AJ is, his TD % isn't all that great for a prolific receiver as he is. Sure, he's made some fantastic, highlight receptions for TD's, but they dont target him nearly enough.

Calvin Johnson averages 9 TD's a year for his career, and this year with his monster season only had 5 TD's. For being considered the best receiver in the league, those numbers aren't very impressive.

Here is an interesting stat: there were 6 players with 100+ receptions this year, and all but one had 6 TD's or less.

There were 9 players with double digit receiving TD's, and seven of them were in the 80-100 reception range.

I honestly don't know what to take from that, other than maybe the 100+ guys were more possession receivers? Only Megatron and AJ averaged over 13 YPC in this group, while over half of the 80-100 reception group averaged over that number.

[Texans_Chick]

In 2011, the Texans had the 2nd most efficient offense in the NFL according to Football Outsiders. It was one of the things that allowed Kubiak to keep his job despite having a dreadful defense. The theory was, get a new DC, fix the D.

So 2nd most efficient is probably the best you are going to see from Kubiak/Schaub pairing, yes?

During that year, the WRs all had a catch rate of 60% or higher.

Given that the Texans have a mix of routes, and use a lot of short passes as run substitutes, and don't take as many downfield shots as lets say the Ravens do, I'm thinking that you want a WR that is capable of at least a 60% catch rate. Relative to some other teams in the NFL, 60% is pretty high, but the Texans have high standards for what is supposed to be caught.

So when you are looking at WR/TE draft targets, you cannot ignore the hands.

A thought.

[badboy]

Hands + average per catch. Imagine what AJ's stats could be if fewer of the dink and dunks Schaub forces on him.

[infantrycak]

Originally Posted by badboy

Hands + average per catch. Imagine what AJ's stats could be if fewer of the dink and dunks Schaub forces on him.

OK this slag Schaub thing at every opportunity (not you in particular) is out of control. Schaub is not a dink and dunk QB. Alex Smith is a dink and dunk QB. Schaub's time in Houston has him with a ypa which exceeds Peyton, Brady and Brees. There are flaws in his game but people are just making stuff up now.

Edit - add Joe Flacco to that list. Then add in Schaub beats all of them in YPC as well. FYI - he led the league in YPC in 2011. Quite the dink and dunker.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

OK this slag Schaub thing at every opportunity (not you in particular) is out of control. Schaub is not a dink and dunk QB. Alex Smith is a dink and dunk QB. Schaub's time in Houston has him with a ypa which exceeds Peyton, Brady and Brees. There are flaws in his game but people are just making stuff up now.

Schaub does throw some very short (dink and dunk imo)passes especially to AJ from behind the LOS or within 4-5 yards. This happens several times a game; not saying that is all Matt throws or he would not have the ypa.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by badboy

Schaub does throw some very short (dink and dunk imo)passes especially to AJ from behind the LOS or within 4-5 yards. This happens several times a game; not saying that is all Matt throws or he would not have the ypa.

I think every QB does this, especially when they have a badass at WR who can take advantage of such opportunities.

[Surreal McCoy]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

OK this slag Schaub thing at every opportunity (not you in particular) is out of control. Schaub is not a dink and dunk QB. Alex Smith is a dink and dunk QB. Schaub's time in Houston has him with a ypa which exceeds Peyton, Brady and Brees. There are flaws in his game but people are just making stuff up now.

What do you mean by 'now'? This has been going on for quite some time. Just like the 'not allowed to audible' silliness

[Lucky]

Originally Posted by Texans_Chick

In 2011, the Texans had the 2nd most efficient offense in the NFL according to Football Outsiders.

So when you are looking at WR/TE draft targets, you cannot ignore the hands.

I'm pretty sure you meant 2010.

The ability to catch the football certainly has something to do with catch rate. But, I would suggest that the ability to create separation and/or find holes in coverage is also a major element in the catch rate equation. It's a lot easier for a QB to complete a pass when the DB is not glued to the receiver. Creating seperation is part speed, part strength, part savvy. That's why despite the attention Andre gets, his catch rate is high. That the other Texans receivers are lacking in one or more of these attributes, could indicate why their catch rate is lacking.

I'm also wondering what these stats aren't telling us. Is an 8 yard reception on 3rd and 10 really a successful play? The raws stats will say yes, but in watching the game you'll see that the defense is giving the QB and receiver the underneath route. Trying to extract meaningful data from football stats is akin to herding cats.

[Vinny]

Originally Posted by Lucky

I'm also wondering what these stats aren't telling us. Is an 8 yard reception on 3rd and 10 really a successful play? The raws stats will say yes, but in watching the game you'll see that the defense is giving the QB and receiver the underneath route. Trying to extract meaningful data from football stats is akin to heading cats.

I've always said that stats are useful for baseball but I don't tend to get fixated on raw numbers for football stuff and your example is one of many reasons why. The Texans throwing short of the first down marker is maddening, but looks good in statistical breakdowns like this.

[infantrycak]

Originally Posted by Lucky

I'm also wondering what these stats aren't telling us. Is an 8 yard reception on 3rd and 10 really a successful play? The raws stats will say yes, but in watching the game you'll see that the defense is giving the QB and receiver the underneath route. Trying to extract meaningful data from football stats is akin to heading cats.

Originally Posted by Vinny

I've always said that stats are useful for baseball but I don't tend to get fixated on raw numbers for football stuff and your example is one of many reasons why. The Texans throwing short of the first down marker is maddening, but looks good in statistical breakdowns like this.

Yes football is not baseball and you have to be careful in using them but they are not useless either. It's all well and good to come up with a scenario for an 8 yd reception on 3rd and 10 but we are talking about a body of work here with thousands of passes against multiple teams and coaches. Schaub hasn't magically been allowed to have 8 yd passes his entire career. .

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by Lucky

I'm also wondering what these stats aren't telling us. Is an 8 yard reception on 3rd and 10 really a successful play? The raws stats will say yes, but in watching the game you'll see that the defense is giving the QB and receiver the underneath route. Trying to extract meaningful data from football stats is akin to herding cats.

I don't agree with this kind of thinking. To extrapolate, it's like giving the ball to the running back 3 yards behind the LOS on 3rd & 1. We all expect that running back to pick up the 4 yards & get credit for one.

The situation is a little different in that you have your OL facilitating that one yard that is needed. But if you have Andre 1 on 1 with a 5'10" 185lb DB, don't you expect him to take that 8 yard catch & make 2 yards?

In my mind you can't say it was a failure on the QB because KDub didn't pick up 2 yards when the safety was playing 3 yards behind the LOS. Or if James Casey is run down before picking up the two yards, or if Jacoby Jones ran 8 yards laterally instead of sticking his head down & picking up 2 yards.

We've seen too many times on this team that a 3 yard slant can & often does pick up a 5 Yard First down.

[deucetx]

I can completely understand why folks feel we are a dink and dunk offense when passing the ball. Personally, I don't care what Schaub did in the past as I care about the Schaub of today after the injuries, after age and after more wear on the arm, body and mind. To me, what he did three years or ago or what not is irrelevant to present.

Breaking down the percentage of the direction of the passes among quarterbacks that had at least 800 snaps I found the information a bit telling. Only quarterback with less snaps I threw on her was Colin Kaepernick because I first began this among playoff quarterbacks then decided to go for broke. So this is of 27 quarterbacks who had 800+ snaps except for Kap. So no Titans who bounced from Timmy to Locky or the Cardinal trio of misfits, Blahbert or Henne, etc.

Matt Schaub was 26th out of 27 when it came down to percentages of passes 20+ yards. Only Christian Ponder went this direction a less percent of his passes.

Matt Schaub was 23rd out of 27 when it came down to percentages of passes 10-19 yards.

Matt Schaub was 2nd out of 27 when it came down to percentages of passes 0-9 yards (Romo was first)

Matt Schaub was 11th out of 27 when it came down to percentages of passes behind the line of scrimmage

So basically what this illustrates is that yes...Schaub did tend to dink and dunk it last year. A rather large percentage of his pass were from behind the line of scrimmage to the up to 9 yards. Course these are just numbers and some also goes on the receiver to get the YAC as Walter was horrible at this. At the same time it displays a tendency and why many say we simply don't stretch a defense enough at times.

Anyway, take from it what you will. Just found it interesting the more I put all this crap together lol.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by thunderkyss

I think every QB does this, especially when they have a badass at WR who can take advantage of such opportunities.

Probably just me but I don't want my star WR getting crunched for a 4 yard gain or less.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by badboy

Hands + average per catch. Imagine what AJ's stats could be if fewer of the dink and dunks Schaub forces on him.

I want to clarify that my post did not say we have a dink and dunk offense. I did say and do believe that he uses AJ too often for short passes with no blocking. A screen I am ok with and maybe 1-2 passes to AJ that start beyond the LOS because he can bull his way for a few yards often. We should be using AJ down the field and some over the middle passes due to his strength, speed and great hands.

[Vinny]

Originally Posted by infantrycak

Yes football is not baseball and you have to be careful in using them but they are not useless either. It's all well and good to come up with a scenario for an 8 yd reception on 3rd and 10 but we are talking about a body of work here with thousands of passes against multiple teams and coaches. Schaub hasn't magically been allowed to have 8 yd passes his entire career. .

True, when I discovered that a third of Geno Smith's passes were behind the LOS last year I turned my head like a dog.

Schaub throwing underneath is fine (conservative is better than stupid) in tight games but when we need to score late behind by two or more scores (see the 10 min, 4th quarter drive in the Patriot game)...you just have to start getting the ball upfield or you are not going to win important games like that. The Patriots were dictating where the ball was thrown and Schaub/Kubiak accommodated that.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by deucetx

Course these are just numbers and some also goes on the receiver to get the YAC as Walter was horrible at this. At the same time it displays a tendency and why many say we simply don't stretch a defense enough at times.

Anyway, take from it what you will. Just found it interesting the more I put all this crap together lol.

To be truly useful, for the purpose you stated, we need to see how these numbers compare to past seasons. We've never been a vertical offense, this is a WCO. At the same time, those runs, those short passes would set us up for the big play down the field.

There's no doubt in my mind, that 2012's offense was limited compared to our offense in the past. What I don't agree with is that Matt Schaub & Gary Kubiak were the limiting factors. Loosing Jacoby hurt us more than some want to admit.

KDub isn't going to get YAC & though he may get down the field every now & again, defenses aren't drawn away from the LOS because of it. OD & James Casey may get you some YAC, but they're not going to get the defenses to back up & spread out.

I am not saying we didn't win the Super Bowl because we didn't have Jacoby Jones. I don't think he would have had as many catches as Walter had we cut Walter & kept Jones. But he would have had as many if not more yards & he'd have had a higher ypc. There would have been more space for everyone else on the field. I never thought Jacoby was better than Walter, just different & for this offense, I prefer to have Jacoby.

[deucetx]

Originally Posted by thunderkyss

To be truly useful, for the purpose you stated, we need to see how these numbers compare to past seasons. We've never been a vertical offense, this is a WCO. At the same time, those runs, those short passes would set us up for the big play down the field.

There's no doubt in my mind, that 2012's offense was limited compared to our offense in the past. What I don't agree with is that Matt Schaub & Gary Kubiak were the limiting factors. Loosing Jacoby hurt us more than some want to admit.

KDub isn't going to get YAC & though he may get down the field every now & again, defenses aren't drawn away from the LOS because of it. OD & James Casey may get you some YAC, but they're not going to get the defenses to back up & spread out.

I am not saying we didn't win the Super Bowl because we didn't have Jacoby Jones. I don't think he would have had as many catches as Walter had we cut Walter & kept Jones. But he would have had as many if not more yards & he'd have had a higher ypc. There would have been more space for everyone else on the field. I never thought Jacoby was better than Walter, just different & for this offense, I prefer to have Jacoby.

I agree about Jacoby. For all his faults he still opened the offense more than KDub did and made more things possible. They weren't too bad together for what they brought. Just those mental lapses...ugh.

As for the WCO, I think a good coach needs to learn to evolve his offense instead of working in strict definitions. Not saying Kubiak is a bad one as this past season may bring new adjustments to his direction and I think he has done so before in the past. As he said, the Patriots game taught them a lot.

But other teams run the west coast as well yet we were one of three that were under 10% in passes 20+ yards. As some are arguing in NFL circles these days you have to attack more downfield because that's just today's NFL thanks to the crappy rules (sorry...cornerback in me talking that hates these PI calls lol). Here are a pair of good quotes I saw in an article ofr USA Today:

"I'm not sure what the West Coast offense is anymore," he says. "Everybody adjusts their system to what they do, or what they want to do, or they adjust it to their personnel." - Mike Shannahan

"I believe there is and always will be a need for elements of a West Coast offense," Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley says. "When I think West Coast, I think progression reads. It depends on the talent you have on offense. That dictates what you do as much as defense." - Todd Haley

So are we limited due to system or personnel is a good question in my opinion. While we are a WCO system I think we all see on deep throws where Schaub underthrows or that he tends to put too much air under his passes. Still I think he could be better in the 10-19 range with the personnel necessary and we don't need 70 yard bombs (though they are nice!)

Breakdowns for past years when Schaub played since it is spotty with injury issues:

20+ 10-19 0-9 Minus
2012 9.34% 20.20% 56.71% 13.75%
2011 14.29% 18.92% 53.28% 13.51%
2010 9.18% 22.75% 55.26% 12.81%
2009 9.87% 19.92% 55.03% 15.18%
2008 9.65% 23.39% 52.34% 14.62%

2011 we went deep more. Is it a coincidence it is also the season Jacoby played the most? Not saying 'Give us back Jacoby!' but saying (as Thunder pointed out) a change in personnel brought a difference to the offense and adjustments. It's one reason I really want a WR that can be a playmaker.

Now if the suspicions some folks have about Schaub and that injury playing a role is true it may mean what we see is what we get. Hopefully it isn't though.

[76Texan]

Interesting numbers, Deuce.

The numbers for 2011 include Yates'?