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Old 02-27-2013   #1
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Default Overpaid/Underpaid Texans according to PFF

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...ouston-texans/

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1. J.J. Watt, Defensive End

This should surprise no one that is a regular reader at Pro Football Focus. Watt had possibly the greatest ever season by a 3-4 defensive end. He had at least two pressures in every single game this year, and 12 games with four or more stops. His 16 batted passes were by far the most, and he missed only four tackles. Things will get really interesting once the Watt contract negotiations start, as the sky is the limit to how much he could get paid.

2012 Cap Hit: $2.6m
2012 Performance Based Value: $18.3m
Value Differential: +$15.7m
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Old 02-27-2013   #2
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Default Re: Overpaid/Underpaid Texans according to PFF

Reminds me of Foster before new contract. These are the players that allow teams to pay others the big bucks. How about Newton a 7th rounder starting?
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Old 02-27-2013   #3
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Default Re: Overpaid/Underpaid Texans according to PFF

They said Kareem was our third most under paid player, behind DBrown76 & Watt
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3. Kareem Jackson, Cornerback

It took a few years but Kareem Jackson has finally lived up to being a first-round draft pick. Any possible number you look at will tell you Jackson was much improved in 2012 compared to 2011. His 46.8% catch rate allowed was fourth-lowest in the league for those with 50 or more targets, while his 14 combined interceptions/passes defended was among the best. Whenever you get someone in their rookie contract among the better players in the league, he will be under paid. Even if he is near the end of the rookie contract and is a first-round pick.

2012 Cap Hit: $2.0m
2012 Performance Based Value: $7.4m
Value Differential: +$5.4m
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Old 02-27-2013   #4
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Default Re: Overpaid/Underpaid Texans according to PFF

Bradie James is undervalued according to them. Bahaha. Maybe if Bradie could run faster than my grandma and was able to cover a 350 lb nose tackle, converted to play WR...then yes, he is undervalued.
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Old 02-27-2013   #5
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Default Re: Overpaid/Underpaid Texans according to PFF

I guess we're gonna offer Quin the same amount he's getting now???
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Old 02-28-2013   #6
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Default Re: Overpaid/Underpaid Texans according to PFF

They have Arian Foster, Daniel Manning, and Johnathan Joseph as 3 of the top 4 OVERPAID Texans. LOL
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Old 02-28-2013   #7
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Default Re: Overpaid/Underpaid Texans according to PFF

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They have Arian Foster, Daniel Manning, and Johnathan Joseph as 3 of the top 4 OVERPAID Texans. LOL
They're basing it off of production. I think we can all agree Jj didn't perform up to his contract. After the first three games, I had enough & mentioned it here. Most people got onto me about it, but sure enough, it came out that he was trying to play through some injury. At no time prior to week 17 did he perform like the pro bowler he is getting paid to be.

I think Danieal's play also suffered quite a bit from his 2011 performance. I'm not opposed to cutting him after 2013 to save a mere $4.5M dollars unless he shows us something. I'd like to draft a future replacement for him this draft.

Arian..... I do wonder how they see Arian as overpaid. I know his ypc is down, but he's still a top 10 running back in the league. He's ranked 6 in yards & lead the league in rushing TDs. I have to imagine his production compared to the cost of other top runningbacks. When you've got rookies like Doug Martin, Steven Riddley, & CJ Spiller right there... maybe. But you've also got Petterson, Marshawn Lynch, & Chris Johnson up there as well.
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Old 02-28-2013   #8
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Default Re: Overpaid/Underpaid Texans according to PFF

I'm listening to Seth Payne (Mad Radio) on 610 & he doesn't agree with this article saying Connor Barwin & Shaun Cody are overpaid.
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Old 02-28-2013   #9
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Default Re: Overpaid/Underpaid Texans according to PFF

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Originally Posted by Thorn View Post
They have Arian Foster, Daniel Manning, and Johnathan Joseph as 3 of the top 4 OVERPAID Texans. LOL
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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
They're basing it off of production.
The way I understand PFF to work is that they evaluate each player on every play. Some of it has to be guestimation because they don't know exact assignments on every single play. Still, I think a tremendous amount of work goes into this each game, and what PFF scores I heard for Texans players that the Texans themselves commented on were pretty close to the Texans evaluation.

So, I wouldn't just laugh it off as stupid, dumb, etc just because it doesn't pass someones eyeball test.

What hurt Arian in their valuation is his number of snaps and ypc. He's one of the best backs, but he's also one of the highest paid with a ypc asterisk.
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Old 02-28-2013   #10
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Default Re: Overpaid/Underpaid Texans according to PFF

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Originally Posted by paycheck71 View Post
What hurt Arian in their valuation is his number of snaps and ypc. He's one of the best backs, but he's also one of the highest paid with a ypc asterisk.
Understood, but like I said, ypc is down. Total yards is up, TDs is up.... I would have thought they evened out & kept him out of the overpaid column.
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Old 02-28-2013   #11
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Default Re: Overpaid/Underpaid Texans according to PFF

Well I think they made a good point about his yards after contact. Didn't we all complain a lot about him slipping and sliding down all the time? I don't think I ever saw someone slip so much last year. On the plus side I think he ran hard in the playoffs. If we could get back to involving Tate again or even Forsett it would help keep him fresh too.

....And get him some new cleats! lol
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Old 02-28-2013   #12
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Default Re: Overpaid/Underpaid Texans according to PFF

I agree with Arian Foster being overpaid. AF was not the same runner as he was before the big contract. Yeah, I know the line wasn't as good, but AF didn't put his head down and hit the hole anywhere near as hard as he did the previous year. I also have to wonder if the number of carries has caught up with him.

Cushing was surprising to me, but he was out for a lot of the year. I wonder if that had any effect on the numbers.

As far as Jonathan Joseph and Daniel Manner are concerned, we did get beat a lot deep. I think a true free safety would cure this problem.
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Old 03-01-2013   #13
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Default Re: Overpaid/Underpaid Texans according to PFF

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I agree with Arian Foster being overpaid. AF was not the same runner as he was before the big contract. Yeah, I know the line wasn't as good, but AF didn't put his head down and hit the hole anywhere near as hard as he did the previous year. I also have to wonder if the number of carries has caught up with him.

Cushing was surprising to me, but he was out for a lot of the year. I wonder if that had any effect on the numbers.

As far as Jonathan Joseph and Daniel Manner are concerned, we did get beat a lot deep. I think a true free safety would cure this problem.
It's one things to lower your head and run through the hole vs a LB and a completely different thing to do the same thing against a 300 lb DLineman. The line play this year fell off quite a bit from 11.
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Old 03-01-2013   #14
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Default Re: Overpaid/Underpaid Texans according to PFF

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It's one things to lower your head and run through the hole vs a LB and a completely different thing to do the same thing against a 300 lb DLineman. The line play this year fell off quite a bit from 11.
You make an excellent point, because the parameters were not the same between 2011 and 2012.

In 2011, with a healthy Tate and starting the season injured and missing a few games, Foster STILL had 1200+ yards and a 4.4 YPC while only getting 50% of the total carries. That is 1500+ yards for a full season.

In 2012, with a revamped line and an unhealthy Tate, Foster had to take 70% of the total carries to get 200 more yards than the previous year.

Interestingly enough, he has averaged 20.4, 21.4 and 21.9 carries over his three full years in the league, so his touches per game are fairly consistent. But his percentage of touches has been 79%, 50% and 67%, with the teams most successful season being 2011 when he had 50%. His production last season, or perceived lack of, was more indicative to me of a combination of line play AND not having the other backs step up for some quality carries.
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Old 03-01-2013   #15
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Default Re: Overpaid/Underpaid Texans according to PFF

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They have Arian Foster, Daniel Manning, and Johnathan Joseph as 3 of the top 4 OVERPAID Texans. LOL
Even the best RB will struggle with a shaky O-line
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Old 03-01-2013   #16
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Default Re: Overpaid/Underpaid Texans according to PFF

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They have Arian Foster, Daniel Manning, and Johnathan Joseph as 3 of the top 4 OVERPAID Texans. LOL
I love all of three of these players so don't kill me on this but when compared to last year (2011), they under performed when put on the stat sheet.

I think they will bounce back just fine but I continuously saw j-Jo burned time and time again. Arian was sluggish and his YPC was much lower than before and if you sneezed within fifty yards of him he fell down. The only thing I can say about manning is he was very invisible. Not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing as a safety. Either way, that's my perception.
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Old 03-02-2013   #17
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Default Re: Overpaid/Underpaid Texans according to PFF

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They have Arian Foster, Daniel Manning, and Johnathan Joseph as 3 of the top 4 OVERPAID Texans. LOL

I think Foster should get the injury astrick next to his name due to the injuries to Tate that forced Arian to carry more of the load than he would have otherwise.

An injury astrick should also go next to Joseph's name. I think he only missed 2 games all year due to injury but he played injured in many others and it was obvious to anyone watching that JJo's injury was affecting his productivity.
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Old 03-04-2013   #18
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Default Re: Overpaid/Underpaid Texans according to PFF

Flacco just got paid http://bleacherreport.com/tb/d9RrJ?u...m_campaign=nfl 120 mil.

Texans can combine Matt Schaubs contract http://bleacherreport.com/tb/d9RrJ?u...m_campaign=nfl

with Duane Brown, ranked as one of the premier LT's https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...ook-week-12-2/ also inked to contract extension http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap100...t-on-extension.

Despite all post season negativity (how could Texans extend Schaub before last season) Texans felt they needed to cover TWO key positions for cap savings. Now roughly in the same ballpark with Flacco. There is also a common link between Flacco & Brown, Texans having traded with Ravens in 2008. Texans traded back, Flacco on the board (18th) & traded with Baltimore for 26th (Brown) & mid 3rd #89 (Steve Slaton). Very ironic history.

My Question is, if the money is similar which would you prefer - Joe Flacco or Matt Schaub & Duane Brown?
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Old 03-04-2013   #19
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Default Re: Overpaid/Underpaid Texans according to PFF

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My Question is, if the money is similar which would you prefer - Joe Flacco or Matt Schaub & Duane Brown?
If Schaub & Brown only counted $6.8M towards the 2013 cap..... hellz yeah.
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Old 03-04-2013   #20
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Default Re: Overpaid/Underpaid Texans according to PFF

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If Schaub & Brown only counted $6.8M towards the 2013 cap..... hellz yeah.
All bills eventually come due. Flacco's contract won't last past year 3.
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