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Old 02-17-2013   #1
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Default Mel Kiper 2013 Mock Drafts

Kiper Mock 2.0 top 10 plus Texans.

No QBs in first round?
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Mel Kiper Mock 2.0
1 Luke Joecke lKansas City Chiefs (2-14)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M AGE: 21 HT: 6-6 WT: 310 POS: OT
Analysis: At this point the Chiefs could be weighing at least a handful of players for this spot, if they stay here. As of now, at No. 1, a quarterback shouldn't be in the mix. So I think fans needs to consider that K.C. could be looking to secure the best available player here, period. From there, they either consider a QB with their first pick in Round 2, or perhaps the option of trading into the late first to mazimize value. As for Joeckel, at this time he probably represents the best guaranteed production on the pick value. A gifted technician at left tackle, he is already capable of handling good NFL pass-rushers, and could hold down the position for 10 years. Regardless, the Chiefs will be thinking about total draft value and strategy, not just a single pick here.

2 Damontre Moore *Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M AGE: 20 HT: 6-4 WT: 250 POS: DE
Analysis: I'm staying with this selection. The Jaguars were again arguably among the worst pass-rushing teams in the NFL in 2012, and need a guaranteed difference-maker. Moore is that kind of player. I've had a pass-rusher as a top need for this franchise going on four years, and Moore checks that off the list. He's an exceptionally productive defensive end prospect with very good quickness, long arms and elite closing burst as a rusher. He will get to the quarterback, period. The Jags should be a better team in 2013, but it's not just based on whether they get better at quarterback.

3 Star Lotulelei Oakland Raiders (4-12)
COLLEGE: Utah AGE: 23 HT: 6-4 WT: 320 POS: DT
Analysis: The Raiders are really compelled to take the best player available. They're desperate for immediate impact, and Lotulelei is one of those players that makes everybody around him better. He demands multiple blockers or he'll collapse the pocket, and his instincts, vision, bust and power effect both the pass and the run. Oakland also has needs at linebacker, wide receiver and cornerback, but outside of maybe Dee Milliner, I don't think the Raiders can match the value of this pick, much less improve on it.

4 Dee Milliner *Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)
COLLEGE: Alabama AGE: 21 HT: 6-1 WT: 199 POS: CB
Analysis: I noted in the previous mock that on a per-play basis, rookie Brandon Boykin might have been the best player in the Eagles secondary toward the end of the season. The Eagles could see a number of personnel changes with the new regime, but they can't afford to fall off significantly in the secondary in a division with Eli Manning, Robert Griffin III and Tony Romo. You might expect Chip Kelly to score points, but he's always put a great emphasis on his defense too. Milliner has elite grades in terms of awareness and ball skills, and he's a physical corner who can push wideouts off routes. And he can flat-out tackle.

5 Jarvis Jones *Detroit Lions (4-12)
COLLEGE: Georgia AGE: 23 HT: 6-3 WT: 241 POS: LB
Analysis: On Tuesday, Detroit cut veteran Kyle Vanden Bosch to clear more cap space. Jones isn't the pure 4-3 defensive end to fill that void, but he'll certainly upgrade the pass rush. No, he's not a perfect fit in the current system, but Gunther Cunningham will be thrilled to scheme with Jones in mind. Roll the tape, and regardless of the how teams tried to stop Jones, you see them fail. He led the nation in sacks even though he was a blocking target, used great leverage to hold up as a run defender and in every case, was simply relentless. Sure, Detroit could also use Milliner if available, but a great pass defense starts with pressure.

6 Bjoern Werner *Cleveland Browns (5-11)
COLLEGE: Florida St.AGE: 22 HT: 6-4 WT: 255 POS: DE
Analysis: The Browns regressed on defense in 2012, and the pass rush was a culprit. This was, by every standard, a bottom-10 unit, and they simply need to add talent. If they want the best player available at this spot, and a guy who fills a void, it might be Werner by the time we get to April. In fact, by then he could be expected to go higher. A late arrival to football, he has a high ceiling, but already has a decent portfolio of pass-rush skills. What's great about Werner isn't just the explosiveness as a pass-rusher, it's also his awareness. He keeps his eyes up and disrupts passing lanes. He's a good fit for the Browns.

7Eric FisherArizona Cardinals (5-11)
COLLEGE: Central Michigan AGE: 22 HT: 6-8 WT: 305 POS: OT
Analysis: This is one of the spots where you could see a QB come off the board, but at this stage a QB taken at No. 7 would be a significant reach. Until we see major strides by one of the QB options, Arizona is better off adding a key piece it can start right away and looking for a QB in Round 2, or trading up into the late first. And remember, the Cardinals may have moved on a QB in free agency or via a trade by April. Fisher isn't a big name, but he's as a good as any tackle in this class outside of Joeckel. Arizona was a train wreck at tackle for much of 2012, and even with some young guys on the roster, they need to consider a better option if available.

8 Alec Ogletree *Buffalo Bills (6-10)
COLLEGE: Georgia AGE: 21 HT: 6-3 WT: 237 POS: LB
Analysis: Sticking with a linebacker here, but going with the higher ceiling. The Bills really need help at interior linebacker, where Kelvin Sheppard is merely adequate. Ogletree was at one time a safety, and you see those kinds of instincts when he plays, because he simply flies to the ball. He's a great pursuit player and a guy who will shoot gaps and make stops in the backfield, but that's also because he has really good instincts. A big key with Ogletree is versatility. There's no reason he can't work on the edge, or inside. He has the ceiling of a player who can do it all.

9 Dion Jordan New York Jets (6-10)
COLLEGE: Oregon AGE: 22 HT: 6-7 WT: 243 POS: OLB
Analysis: Yes, they really need skill position upgrades, with wide receiver, tight end and running back all areas of need. But the value is an issue, so if the Jets don't trade down, they're better served going with the best player available at another position of need. I'm a big fan of the interior, with Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples in place, but the Jets could really use an edge rusher. Jordan is light, but he has long arms, great athleticism and I think can be a guy they don't need to shuttle in and out depending on downs and matchups. He has star potential, and the pass rush gets some help.

10 Barkevious Mingo *Tennessee Titans (6-10)
COLLEGE: LSU AGE: 22 HT: 6-5 WT: 242 POS: DE
Analysis: Mingo sits on that fine line you can find in this range of the draft. He has the natural skills and athleticism of a devastating pass-rusher in the mold of an Aldon Smith -- those guys don't last into the teens. But there's a small bust potential too if his technique doesn't get better. The guy is long, fast, has a great burst and can flat-out turn the corner. But he also needs to play with better leverage, take on blockers more effectively and find ways to simply be more productive. When you watch Mingo at his best, closing on a QB, he looks too good to pass up. Tennessee needs the pass-rush help, and Mingo could develop into a star.
Quote:
27 Quinton Patton Houston Texans (12-4)
COLLEGE: Louisiana Tech AGE: 22 HT: 6-2 WT: 198 POS: WR
Analysis: Houston needs to find another weapon for Matt Schaub. Andre Johnson will be 32 this summer, and if he's out of the lineup, the drop-off is significant. If you're a fan that hasn't seen anything from Patton, roll the tape from his game against Texas A&M. All he did to the Aggies was 21 catches, 233 yards and 4 TD catches. Simply put, Patton was really, really hard to cover in 2012, and when he went to the Senior Bowl against some of the top competition in the draft, he didn't get any easier to cover. Love the way he release from pressure, can set defenders up and work the sides or the middle of the field, using long arms to snatch the ball away from his body. A rising player meets a good fit.
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Old 02-17-2013   #2
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Default Re: Mel Kiper 2013 Mock Drafts

I can live with Patton in the 1st. I disagree though, their will be several QB's taken in the 1st round. QB's are always in need and get over drafted based on that need.
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Old 02-17-2013   #3
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Default Re: Mel Kiper 2013 Mock Drafts

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Originally Posted by Wolf6151 View Post
I disagree though, their will be several QB's taken in the 1st round. QB's are always in need and get over drafted based on that need.
I agree, and hope we see 2,3.4 QBs drafted early to push the better talent options down to us.

Kiper intentionally left QB out of the 1st round just so he & McShay will have more to argue about.
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Old 02-17-2013   #4
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Default Re: Mel Kiper 2013 Mock Drafts

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I can live with Patton in the 1st. I disagree though, their will be several QB's taken in the 1st round. QB's are always in need and get over drafted based on that need.
This is classic Kipper statement. Let draft season officially begin even though you, me & many others have been mocking & analyzing prospects since beginning of last season. I personally like it when he drums up other positions besides QB position which is constantly overdrafted with few exceptions (Aaron Rodgers @ Russel Wilson come to mind).

Really like Patton pick. If texans come up empty in free agency to address WR position I'm on board. Maybe his draft grade is not first round now but he would be the impact player they're looking for. I wouldn't stop there either, grab a mid to late round burner too to really stretch the field. Schaub/Kubiak are under scrutiny to perform so adding weapons must be their priortiy.
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Old 02-17-2013   #5
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Default Re: Mel Kiper 2013 Mock Drafts

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Originally Posted by beerlover View Post
This is classic Kipper statement. Let draft season officially begin even though you, me & many others have been mocking & analyzing prospects since beginning of last season. I personally like it when he drums up other positions besides QB position which is constantly overdrafted with few exceptions (Aaron Rodgers @ Russel Wilson come to mind).

Really like Patton pick. If texans come up empty in free agency to address WR position I'm on board. Maybe his draft grade is not first round now but he would be the impact player they're looking for. I wouldn't stop there either, grab a mid to late round burner too to really stretch the field. Schaub/Kubiak are under scrutiny to perform so adding weapons must be their priortiy.
You wouldn't want to see how K Mart, Posey, and Jean develop with added reps? Throwing 2 more young guys into the rotation really thins out the reps to go around.
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Old 02-17-2013   #6
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Default Re: Mel Kiper 2013 Mock Drafts

Agree on Patton..would like to see KC trade up with us to use #27 for a QB. We could still get great player @ top of second plus a fourth. Lots of interesting players projected to second round. We could pull in two and imo trade up into second round if right player there. Three seconds and a third = gravy for de chicken. We could land a NT, ILB, WR and?
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Old 02-17-2013   #7
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Default Re: Mel Kiper 2013 Mock Drafts

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You wouldn't want to see how K Mart, Posey, and Jean develop with added reps? Throwing 2 more young guys into the rotation really thins out the reps to go around.
I think many of are leery of those three doing much next season. Two may not be able to get on field much and Martin better hope his returns improve. Neither of those three have given any hope they will have a better season. If I am going to cross my fingers on a position, I do not want it to be WR.
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Old 02-17-2013   #8
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Default Re: Mel Kiper 2013 Mock Drafts

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You wouldn't want to see how K Mart, Posey, and Jean develop with added reps? Throwing 2 more young guys into the rotation really thins out the reps to go around.
No, I wouldn't want to see, I've already seen.

K-Mart is a 4-5 WR/PR type guy.

Posey is hurt and will be lucky to make it back 100% ever.

Jean, will be an avg WR at best and a disappointment at worst.

So adding 2 WR's to add competition to the mix can only improve the team.
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Old 02-17-2013   #9
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Default Re: Mel Kiper 2013 Mock Drafts

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No, I wouldn't want to see, I've already seen.

K-Mart is a 4-5 WR/PR type guy.

Posey is hurt and will be lucky to make it back 100% ever.

Jean, will be an avg WR at best and a disappointment at worst.

So adding 2 WR's to add competition to the mix can only improve the team.
It's to soon to say this.
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Old 02-17-2013   #10
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Default Re: Mel Kiper 2013 Mock Drafts

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It's to soon to say this.
An avg #3 at best and I'm being kind.

Of course I have a huge aversion to Big 10 WR/DB's.
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Old 02-17-2013   #11
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Default Re: Mel Kiper 2013 Mock Drafts

I rather see us drafting D line prospect as this year is supposed to be loaded with D line talent. For WR, I wouldn't be against it to draft one of them in 2nd rd or later. Or, trading out of 1st to obtain extra picks that is if we are able to find willing trade partner. This allow us to find good DT and WR both in the 2nd rd IMO.
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Old 02-17-2013   #12
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Default Re: Mel Kiper 2013 Mock Drafts

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You wouldn't want to see how K Mart, Posey, and Jean develop with added reps? Throwing 2 more young guys into the rotation really thins out the reps to go around.
Of course I want to see our current Kmart, Jean & Posey develop & take that next step but Texans cannot afford to wait until Posey rehabs or Jean develops or Martin learning curve is self evident. Do you really feel Kubiak/Schaub can survive another repeat performance? I can't which is reason why they will inevitably succumb to dire need. All I can say is it's not a perfect world for Texans fans, I would be all in favor of building defense because that's proven to win championships, but a serious rotation is due 4 WR position.
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Old 02-17-2013   #13
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Of course I want to see our current Kmart, Jean & Posey develop & take that next step but Texans cannot afford to wait until Posey rehabs or Jean develops or Martin learning curve is self evident. Do you really feel Kubiak/Schaub can survive another repeat performance? I can't which is reason why they will inevitably succumb to dire need. All I can say is it's not a perfect world for Texans fans, I would be all in favor of building defense because that's proven to win championships, but a serious rotation is due 4 WR position.
Although I'm an it's time to fix the offense guy, if Datone Jones is there in the 1st and Brandon Williams is there in the 2nd Rick should personally run the card up to God'ell.

Find a WR in the 3rd (Tavarres King type and an OT in the 3/4th rd range. Quessenberry/Brendan Williams.)
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Old 02-17-2013   #14
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Default Re: Mel Kiper 2013 Mock Drafts

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You wouldn't want to see how K Mart, Posey, and Jean develop with added reps? Throwing 2 more young guys into the rotation really thins out the reps to go around.
K Mart will develop into a good #3/slot WR in time, the game was just to big for him last year but I see potential in him and am not that worried about him. Posey will be out all next season on IR and will be lucky to ever play NFL WR again at an average level. His career could be over. Jean has been with the team for 2 yrs. now and his ass should be on the bubble in training camp next season. He looks the part of an NFL WR but the game seems to big for him as well and we can't wait forever. I agree with BL's idea of taking 2 WR in this draft and have done so in my latest mock as well. It's a team weakness, best to double up on it with better quality talent.
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Old 02-18-2013   #15
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Default Re: Mel Kiper 2013 Mock Drafts

Martin was a slot WR in college so not sure why anyone expects he'd be more than that at the next level. And I don't say that like it's a bad thing, I'm just saying he's an added weapon but not the solution to the WR problem. Everyone needs a good slot WR but we need to upgrade Walter at the 2 and find an eventual replacement for Andre at the 1.
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Old 02-18-2013   #16
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Default Re: Mel Kiper 2013 Mock Drafts

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Posey will be out all next season on IR and will be lucky to ever play NFL WR again at an average level. His career could be over.
Could be, but I don't think it's very probable. I also don't believe there is any reason to believe he'll be on IR all year. Demayriius Thomas tore his achilles in OTAs & was still able to play opening day.

Posey tore his 4 months prior to OTAs, I think we should expect him to play opening day.

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Martin was a slot WR in college so not sure why anyone expects he'd be more than that at the next level. And I don't say that like it's a bad thing, I'm just saying he's an added weapon but not the solution to the WR problem. Everyone needs a good slot WR but we need to upgrade Walter at the 2 and find an eventual replacement for Andre at the 1.
Both Welker & Harvin are slot receivers who play big roles for their teams. I think he did a great job of being able to get open last season & if he & Matt get their timing down, he'll most likely get on the field earlier than anyone we could possibly draft.

I'm not opposed to KDub being on this team, I just don't care for the money he's making or the number of snaps he gets. There's no reason Martin can't take snaps from Walter, even though he's a slot receiver.


That said, I'd be highly disappointed if we don't draft a WR on the first day.
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Old 02-18-2013   #17
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Default Re: Mel Kiper 2013 Mock Drafts

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Could be, but I don't think it's very probable. I also don't believe there is any reason to believe he'll be on IR all year. Demayriius Thomas tore his achilles in OTAs & was still able to play opening day.

Posey tore his 4 months prior to OTAs, I think we should expect him to play opening day.
This all depends on the severity of the torn Achilles tendon. They grade these things depending on severity and I haven't heard anything about how badly Posey's tear was. Just like a bone, hairline crack or compound fracture, both are broken bones but 2 totally different things. Let's hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
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Old 02-18-2013   #18
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Default Re: Mel Kiper 2013 Mock Drafts

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Originally Posted by thunderkyss View Post
Could be, but I don't think it's very probable. I also don't believe there is any reason to believe he'll be on IR all year. Demayriius Thomas tore his achilles in OTAs & was still able to play opening day.

Posey tore his 4 months prior to OTAs, I think we should expect him to play opening day.
I think Doc (CNNND) said something about it depends on if it was a partial tear or a complete tear. Sounds like Thomas may have had a partial tear since he was only out a short time. I don't know about Posey.
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Old 02-18-2013   #19
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Default Re: Mel Kiper 2013 Mock Drafts

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Originally Posted by Playoffs View Post
Kiper Mock 2.0 top 10 plus Texans.

No QBs in first round?
Not saying this couldn't happen, but I think it's unlikely.

If KC passes on a QB (Geno), I'm wondering if the Jags will jump at him. If they pass, well, there could be a fall of the QB's, and that doesn't help the Texans. Unless, someone does grab Geno Smith in the mid 1st which starts a run and then KC and the Jags may try to move back into the 1st by trading up! That could benefit the Texans!
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Old 02-18-2013   #20
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Default Re: Mel Kiper 2013 Mock Drafts

WRs ahead of our pick:

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12 Cordarrelle Patterson *Miami Dolphins (7-9)
COLLEGE: Tennessee AGE: 21 HT: 6-3 WT: 205 POS: WR
Analysis: This is where I projected Patterson the first time around, and I still like it. The question is whether Patterson will still be around this far down the board. The Dolphins need pass-catching help for Ryan Tannehill, mainly of the impact variety. They need a legit matchup problem. Patterson had just one year in the SEC after spending two years at the junior-college level, but he's got the skill set you want for a pick this high. Very good hands, he can beat cornerbacks with his height and strength, and he'll beat defenders for 50-50 balls. He can hurt you after the catch, and the value makes sense.
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22 Keenan Allen *St. Louis Rams (from WAS) (7-8-1)
COLLEGE: California AGE: 20 HT: 6-3 WT: 210 POS: WR
Analysis: The Rams lock down some blocking help, then get a wide receiver who can help them immediately. That would be a productive first round. It's possible I've worried too much about how well Allen will run, because aside from what should just be a pedestrian 40 time, he can do everything else well. He has a prototypical build, long enough to be taller than most corners, but lean and strong enough where his burst is very good, and quickness out of breaks isn't a question. His hands are very strong, and dependable, and he works back to the ball. A one-time safety, he has game smarts and helps his QB. Sam Bradford will benefit from his presence.
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