Dutch's 2013 Texans Offseason Projections and Info

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

I need some confirmation.
As I understand it, each FA we signed cancels out one that we lost.

Lost:
Mario
Allen
Brisiel
Dreessen

Signed:
James
Donnie Jones.

It looks to me like we will only get two comp pick:
A third for Mario and a sixth for Allen (due to the value of the contract they signed with the new teams.)

Did I miss something ?

Rackers' deal may also have reached a qualifying offer... it was certainly more than the two you listed.

According to anything I have seen, the Texans should qualify for 4 compensatory picks... with one being a 3rd,

The question is what they get for Briesel and Dreessen (4th-6th) and whether Allen will get them a 6th or 7th (his lack of play may knock him down).

My best guess: 3rd, 5th, 5th, 7th.

[Playoffs]

Dutch has a section on this:

http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/sho...t=compensatory

[Lucky]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

Rackers' deal may also have reached a qualifying offer... it was certainly more than the two you listed.

According to anything I have seen, the Texans should qualify for 4 compensatory picks... with one being a 3rd,

The question is what they get for Briesel and Dreessen (4th-6th) and whether Allen will get them a 6th or 7th (his lack of play may knock him down).

My best guess: 3rd, 5th, 5th, 7th.

I don't think Rackers deal, or anyone the Texans signed reached the minimum qualifying offer threshold. Based upon what I have seen and read over the years, I think the actual contract is where the round of compensation is slotted, then performance based inside that round is given credence.

Mario is an obvious third. Brisiel and Allen both signed deals that averaged $4 million, and I think that puts their compensation firmly in the 6th round. Dreessen's deal was for less than $3 million/year, but I think that will be good enough for the 6th round, as well. My guess at this point is one 3rd and 3 6th rounders. This guy adamjt13 did a great job at guessing the compensatory slots, but hasn't done them in awhile.

[76Texan]

Hey, maybe I'll get the three sixth rounders I was clamoring for.

I guess it's time to go look for a potential diamond in the rough.

[IDEXAN]

Comp pics come at the end of the round, right ? For example, if we'd get a third-round comp for Mario, we'd get the 33rd pic of the 3rd round (assuming there's no other comps in that round) ?

[Dutchrudder]

Originally Posted by IDEXAN

Comp pics come at the end of the round, right ? For example, if we'd get a third-round comp for Mario, we'd get the 33rd pic of the 3rd round (assuming there's no other comps in that round) ?

Yep, it's just that the order of those picks can vary depending on how many others there are. Usually there are quite a few 5/6/7th round comp picks, and the order of those depends on the rating given by the secret formula. The dumb thing is, if we end up with a 5th, 6th, and 7th, we won't know for certain which player generated which pick. Only way to know for sure is if they are all the same round. Seems really dumb to me that the NFL protects this formula and the results like it's the recipe for Coke. It's really not that significant, and it should be made public to GMs and fans.

[76Texan]

Well, the Raiders lost Aso and got the third rounder, so I think it's safe to say that we'll also get a third.

The Raiders also got the first comp pick in the 4th and they took my dark horse Miles Burris, LB.

He started 15 games for them, recording 2 sacks, 1 Int, and 96 tackles.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

I need some confirmation.
As I understand it, each FA we signed cancels out one that we lost.

Lost:
Mario
Allen
Brisiel
Dreessen

Signed:
James
Donnie Jones.

It looks to me like we will only get two comp pick:
A third for Mario and a sixth for Allen (due to the value of the contract they signed with the new teams.)

Did I miss something ?

IIRC the timing of when the player is signed effects it. Phillips stated in Chronicle that he told James he would sign him after cut off date so it would not cancel a comp. Not sure about Jones but may have been same.

[Dutchrudder]

Frrom the OP guys...

2012 salaries are as follows:
Shayne Graham: 2012: $925,000
Bradie James: 2012: $825,000
Donnie Jones: 2012: $825,000
Alan Ball: 6/2/2012: Signed an undisclosed contract. (June 1st is cutoff date for comp picks)
Justin Forsett: 6/2/2012: Signed a one-year contract. (June 1st is cutoff date for comp picks)
Ryan Harris: 9/1/2012: Signed a one-year, $700,000 contract.

All of the above are minimum or ineligible deals and do not affect our comp picks. If you have a specific player to ask about, let me know and I can look it up real quick.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

Frrom the OP guys...

2012 salaries are as follows:
Shayne Graham: 2012: $925,000
Bradie James: 2012: $825,000
Donnie Jones: 2012: $825,000
Alan Ball: 6/2/2012: Signed an undisclosed contract. (June 1st is cutoff date for comp picks)
Justin Forsett: 6/2/2012: Signed a one-year contract. (June 1st is cutoff date for comp picks)
Ryan Harris: 9/1/2012: Signed a one-year, $700,000 contract.

All of the above are minimum or ineligible deals and do not affect our comp picks. If you have a specific player to ask about, let me know and I can look it up real quick.

Good.

[Lucky]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

The Raiders also got the first comp pick in the 4th and they took my dark horse Miles Burris, LB.

The Raiders received that pick for losing TE Zach Miller (5 years, $34 million) to the Seahawks.

[76Texan]

Dutch, can we have an update on this.

Let's start with all the active contracts (not counting the recent future/reserve contracts for guys like Keenum).

Let's assume we don't cut any of these guys. How many do we have and what are their cap spaces for 2013?

[mussop]

What would be the savings for cutting OD.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by mussop

What would be the savings for cutting OD.

Base" $4 m; prorated signing bonus: $750 K; misc bonus $1 m; Dead money: $3.5 m; cap hit: $5. 75 m; total saving if cut $5.75 - $3.5 = $2 m

* not sure if the miscellaneous bonus is one that is based on certain criteria & could be eliminated if he is cut.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/cap-hit/

[Corrosion]

Originally Posted by mussop

What would be the savings for cutting OD.

Probably not enough to replace him with an equal or more productive player.

I think its safe to say the same thing about Walter who would only save ~$2m if cut.


The way I look at those situations is: Can you replace them with an equal or greater piece with the savings against the cap. If you cant , its probably not a wise cut.