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Old 02-02-2013   #61
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Old 02-02-2013   #62
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

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If Walter beat his man to the corner, why is that ball so poorly underthrown? We've seen Schaub throw the ball farther than that many times, with all that green in front of Walter, why not put it in front of him with a little air, let him go get it?
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Old 02-02-2013   #63
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

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If Walter beat his man to the corner, why is that ball so poorly underthrown? We've seen Schaub throw the ball farther than that many times, with all that green in front of Walter, why not put it in front of him with a little air, let him go get it?
Well, you want a back shoulder fade, you got one; what are you complaining about, LOL.

Yah, that ball should have been thrown to the outside for Walter, but Schaub threw it at the back of the CB. Either it was a poor throw or Schaub was going for the PI all the way. My guess is that it was a poor throw. It was late, too. Walter had to slow down to wait for it.

The LOS was the 27 yard line; it wasn't that deep of a throw.
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Old 02-02-2013   #64
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

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Walter didn't lose snaps.
Before the bye week he was in between 64-70% of the time.
After the bye week, he was normally in between 74-86% of the time.

There were a couple of exceptions (week 15, when the Texans had a comfortable 23-10 lead over the Colts, and the last regular game of the season, when Kubiak probably wanted to give him a little rest.)

His snap counts picked right back up in the play-offs.

It was Jean and Martin who lost snaps to Posey.
His playcount did pick up in the playoffs as Kubiak has been known to prefer experience as it is in such a position so no doubt he would for the playoffs. Well, until we were down to the Patriots and we needed to actually pass and someone to get open without playaction. But saying Walter didn't lose snaps during the end of the year? Incorrect.

After the bye Walter had usual snap count up to week 13. A span of five games he averaged 64.2 plays. After that? The next four games his playcount went down and he averaged 42.25. Last I checked a -22 differential is a drop in snaps.

And while the screenshots are nice it is mainly one game and not play after play. His issue is performing in such a manner consistently. Not to mention the missed opportunities you try to show...every receiver has them including those who already have better production than Walter.

Having someone capable of actually getting separation on a consistent basis in [b]any[b] situation. That means not needing just scheme and playaction because some times the run game will be halted and we will need to open it up, i.e. the Patriots game. Well....unless you don't wish to beat the top tier teams.

And yes, stats don't illustrate the full picture all the time. That is why I alluded to PFF which does not rely merely on stats. It was formatted for that specific purpose. To evaluate play after play and get a better understanding than just the numbers and it is why others like GM's and scouts turn to it as well.

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At any rate, Walter isn't even the third option on this team.
He's been the fourth option since 2010. Foster is third with 239 targets to Walter's 219.

That's just the way the Texans run their offense.

In fact, when Jacoby was here, he had more targets than Walter in 2010 and 2012 (3 and 4 more respectively.) So if you go strictly by numbers, Walter was the fifth option in those two years.
Umm...that is part of the problem. Your #2 should never be that far down as an option. That is a hindrance to an offense. Plus...you are a bit incorrect again.

This past season target % of the passes was:

Dre 29.6%
O.D. 18.6%
Walter 12.3%
Foster 10.5%

So Walter was the third option last year. And again this is not how the system is. Any coach will have his system go along with the personnel at his disposal unless he is one horrible coach.

2006 - #2 option was WR Eric Moulds by 28 target more than OD
2007 - #1 target (w/Dre injured WR Kevin Walter with 106. #2 was OD and then Dre
2008 - It went Dre (170), O.D. (101) and Walter (95) A 6 point differential and the last season Walter was very contributing to pass game
2009 - It went Dre (170), Walter (70) and O.D. (57 - injured year)
2010 - It went Dre (138), Foster (84) and Walter (80)
2011 - It went O.D. (84), Foster (71), Jacoby (64) and Walter (59)

What this illustrates is one, you are wrong about him being a 5th option. Not sure where you even got that one. Two, this system isn't circled in concrete about getting the ball to just Dre then TE's or RB's. It's about getting the ball to the playmakers. Walter was one in '07-'08 so he saw the ball more. O.D. then became more than Walter, Foster and as much as we moan about Jacoby he had more playmaking abilities than our current Walter as well. This system is the same by Shanny and is part of the west coast which is about getting the ball to playmakers hence why we could use one.

There's a reason why Jacoby and Walter combined had so many targets. You want to get the ball to those who can make plays in a short-medium passing game. Walter was that but now, he is not. A decent third or fourth receiver maybe (but not at his current contract) but a #2? Hardly.
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Old 02-02-2013   #65
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

Deuce, I'm on my IPhone, so I can't elaborate.

On the snap counts, don't go by the actual number of plays, go by the percentage of the time he was in on offense. Check it and you will see that the numbers that I gave are correct.
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Old 02-02-2013   #66
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

On the pass target numbers, I used KFFL target chart, and combined the two years 2010-2011.

Even with several games missing, AJ, OD, and Foster had more targets.
Jacoby also had more targets, about 6 or 7 (including the two play-off games.)

In 2012, I also count the play-off games; Foster and Walter tied for third at 75 each (somehow I missed it by a little.)
However, Foster was also out for a bit due to his heart condition, saying that Walter was a close 4th option isn't wrong. In fact, since I combined the 3 years together, Foster definitely had more targets than Walter.

If Jacoby was still here, he would probably have more targets too.
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Old 02-02-2013   #67
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

As far as system goes, yes, the HC and the offensive coordinator game plan around the weapons they have.

In the Broncos days, they still had a number 1; then the number 1 was replaced when he got too old; McCaffrey became the number 2.
Their TE was still very valuable but was also at the end of his career.

The Broncos didn't even had a decent third receiver, so the pass distribution was to the #1, #2, TEs, then the backs (because they didn't have good backs that can catch the balls out of the backfield.
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Old 02-02-2013   #68
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

Here, Kubiak used AJ, Moulds, OD, Lundy, then the young Walter in 06.
The addition of both Moulds and Walter tell us that they wanted a third receiver.

The following year, we added Andre Davis as the speed guy, and started working in Dreessen a little bit as the second TE.
With AJ missing a ton of game and Davis being the new guy, they worked the ball to Walter more; that's really normal, wouldn't you say?
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Old 02-02-2013   #69
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

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As far as system goes, yes, the HC and the offensive coordinator game plan around the weapons they have.
But they're only guessing at what the defense is going to do. They can't make decisions like that until they get to the Line. That's got to be Schaub's decision when he gets to the line. Then it's going to change again, once the ball is snapped.
The play comes in, it's a two man route designed to get the safety to bite on the crosser, opening the deep route. This becomse #1 on your progression.

But you come to the line & they're in Qtrs. So now you've got to be thinking the crossing route will be open. This becomes #1 on your progression.

You hike the ball & the safeties stay flat opening the deep route again. They take away your #1, you go on to #2.
I'm not an offensive coordinator, but the targets would be determined by routes, not positions. If I think my TE gets down the field & separation better than my #2 WR, then he'll be the one running that crossing route. I'll split him out wide more often than other teams do, because I know I'm talented limited at the WR position.

My TEs & my RBs are better receiving threats than my #2 WR.

I can't understand why you don't see that as a problem.
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Old 02-02-2013   #70
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

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But they're only guessing at what the defense is going to do. They can't make decisions like that until they get to the Line. That's got to be Schaub's decision when he gets to the line. Then it's going to change again, once the ball is snapped.
The play comes in, it's a two man route designed to get the safety to bite on the crosser, opening the deep route. This becomse #1 on your progression.

But you come to the line & they're in Qtrs. So now you've got to be thinking the crossing route will be open. This becomes #1 on your progression.

You hike the ball & the safeties stay flat opening the deep route again. They take away your #1, you go on to #2.
I'm not an offensive coordinator, but the targets would be determined by routes, not positions. If I think my TE gets down the field & separation better than my #2 WR, then he'll be the one running that crossing route. I'll split him out wide more often than other teams do, because I know I'm talented limited at the WR position.

My TEs & my RBs are better receiving threats than my #2 WR.

I can't understand why you don't see that as a problem.
Well, to really understand what's going on, we need to look at each pass pattern and see how the defense set up on each of those plays.

Now, I haven't done much of it this year, but I did plenty last year, and the years before.

You're talking about a guy who had watched each of the games from 07 to 11 in the upward of a hundred hours each. What do think I spent all that time for?
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Old 02-02-2013   #71
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

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Well, to really understand what's going on, we need to look at each pass pattern and see how the defense set up on each of those plays.

Now, I haven't done much of it this year, but I did plenty last year, and the years before.

You're talking about a guy who had watched each of the games from 07 to 11 in the upward of a hundred hours each. What do think I spent all that time for?
I know you've watched a lot of tape I know you've broken a bunch of them down, studied play-books, and dissected routes & coverages, which is why I know you already know that what I implied is correct.
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Old 02-02-2013   #72
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

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Schaub's got some limitations. Refusal to throw it deep isn't one of them. We've consistently been among the more explosive teams in the league for at least the last 5 years.

And now his arm "simply" isn't strong enough to make throws he's regularly made over the last 6 years.... uh-huh..
I think you have to look at how they made those big plays - They get Schaub out of the pocket and allow him to put a lot of air under the ball allowing the reciever to run under (adjust to) the ball .... These arent throws that require a lot of accuracy or zip on them with a flat trajectory. Those are the throws Schaub cant make and hasnt made or been asked to make.
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Old 02-02-2013   #73
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

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I know you've watched a lot of tape I know you've broken a bunch of them down, studied play-books, and dissected routes & coverages, which is why I know you already know that what I implied is correct.
Yes and No.
Walter is not to be confused with a very good number 2 like Julio Jones seems to be on the way to become (if not already), but Walter is no cup cake either.

Yes, it's true that we have a pretty good TE in OD and a very good back out of the backfield in Foster; that was why they got the big money.

But OD isn't as good in blocking as a TE should be while Walter has been among the top at his position in blocking.
The play action often benefits the TEs more than it does Walter.
At times he and/or AJ would take away the safety (or safeties) for the TEs or the RB. How often do you see these guys being double-teamed?

I was wanting to watch a little more of Walter so I pulled up another game.
I chose the Packers game because it was a loss and also because Walter didn't have good numbers.

And guess what? More of the same with him being open but not getting the ball for a number of reasons.

Then there's that PI call again, taking another TD from him.
About the same distance in yardage (some 26 yards).
I believe it was Sam Shield who committed the penalty.
This one set up another TD by Foster.
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Old 02-02-2013   #74
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

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Yes and No.
Walter is not to be confused with a very good number 2 like Julio Jones seems to be on the way to become (if not already), but Walter is no cup cake either.

Yes, it's true that we have a pretty good TE in OD and a very good back out of the backfield in Foster; that was why they got the big money.

But OD isn't as good in blocking as a TE should be while Walter has been among the top at his position in blocking.
The play action often benefits the TEs more than it does Walter.
At times he and/or AJ would take away the safety (or safeties) for the TEs or the RB. How often do you see these guys being double-teamed?

I was wanting to watch a little more of Walter so I pulled up another game.
I chose the Packers game because it was a loss and also because Walter didn't have good numbers.

And guess what? More of the same with him being open but not getting the ball for a number of reasons.

Then there's that PI call again, taking another TD from him.
About the same distance in yardage (some 26 yards).
I believe it was Sam Shield who committed the penalty.
This one set up another TD by Foster.
While all of your post may be correct. IDK

Facts are defenses dont fear another WR on the roster not named AJ.

It's time to fix the offense and drafting a QB/WR/RT would be good places to start.
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Old 02-02-2013   #75
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

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While all of your post may be correct. IDK

Facts are defenses dont fear another WR on the roster not named AJ.

It's time to fix the offense and drafting a QB/WR/RT would be good places to start.
Oh yeah?

The only other long pass play in the Packers game was an underneath crossing route by O.D.
And guess what? Walter was the one who took the double-team with him.
The single deep safety stayed deep instead of jumping down on the crosser.

However, I'm all for drafting another WR; I was on board since last year, you know that.
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Old 02-03-2013   #76
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

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Oh yeah?

The only other long pass play in the Packers game was an underneath crossing route by O.D.
And guess what? Walter was the one who took the double-team with him.
The single deep safety stayed deep instead of jumping down on the crosser.

However, I'm all for drafting another WR; I was on board since last year, you know that.
Yep,

If a Wr like Williams,Hunter,Rodgers is there at 27 that would be my pick.

A vertical threat would open up things for AJ,Foster,OD etc....

Rodgers is a deep threat even though I expect him to run in the 4.5 range. What do you think it will take to solve the Texans red zone woes? A big TE like Lucas Reed sure would be helpful.
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Old 02-21-2013   #77
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

How about being able to run the ball in for a TD within 10 yards?
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Old 02-23-2013   #78
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

well at least we are throwing to the right guy andre needs his touches i say keep on throwing to #80 till they can stop it
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Old 02-25-2013   #79
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

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Yep,

If a Wr like Williams,Hunter,Rodgers is there at 27 that would be my pick.

A vertical threat would open up things for AJ,Foster,OD etc....

Rodgers is a deep threat even though I expect him to run in the 4.5 range. What do you think it will take to solve the Texans red zone woes? A big TE like Lucas Reed sure would be helpful.
I blame the Redzone woes on Schaub and the coaching staff. How often do you see plays designed for AJ in the Redzone, fade routes, quick slants. AJ is a beast and is way bigger than most CBs who cover him, how often do you see us throw it up and let AJ go and get it ???
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Old 02-25-2013   #80
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

Quote:
Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger View Post
This should help

Very interesting. What's it all mean?
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