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Old 02-01-2013   #41
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

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Originally Posted by sandman View Post
I'll say it again, KW is not the reason this offense faltered later in the season. I've always supported Schaub, but it sits on his shoulders. Well, and Dennison for the completely predictable and unimaginative play-calling.
And no one is saying Walter is at fault for the offense. That would be a bit silly. Saying that a piece needs to be upgraded does not equal the entire offense sitting on their shoulders. But plain and simple we aren't getting enough out of that position. Yeah it rest on Schaub shoulders but he isn't going anywhere. So we sit around going with status quo or do we upgrade and get better? Oh and Dennison doesn't call the plays. Kubiak does. He just has input.

Even the teams you brought up, every receiver in those equations is more talented than Walter as a receiver. There are no if's and's or but's about it. And an offense can only be executed up to the level of your personnel. If you have only one receiver capable of stretching a field or getting open without a scheme/playaction, you are hindered offensively. People seem to not think that maybe Walter isn't targetted even more because they don't find him as capable? He lost plays to Posey from week 15+ for a reason.

And if you want to hit percentages here are five quarterbacks who threw it less or more than Schaub (544):

Denver (583) - Best comparison: Stokley - 45 rec 544yds 5tds 58 targets 9.9% target (4th option tied w/Dressn) Stokley had a lower target percent to Walter (12.3 to 9.9) yet still had better production. And again, 4th option.

Oakland (565) - Heyward-Bey 41rec 606yards 5tds 80 targets 12.7% target

Tampa Bay (558) - No one to really compare. Their top two were targetted 20%+ (Jackson/Williams) and are of course better than Walter. Closes to Walter % was Martin the RB who almost had better numbers than Walter from that position which is a bit sad.

Green Bay (552) - They all out produced Walter (Nelson, Jones, Cobb) but we'll take the guy with the closes percentage in Nelson - 49 rec 745yards 7tds 73 targets 13.1 target%

St. Louis (551) TE Kendricks 42 rec 519 yards 4td's 11.5% (Top 3 receivers all better than Walter but w/ target % from 14.5 - 18.1)

NYG (536) WR Hixon 39 rec 567 yards 2tds 10.9% (again 4th option as top two receivers and TE out-produced Walter easily)

Baltimore (531) WR Jones 30 rec 409 yards 1td 9.6% (5th option. Top receivers easily better than Walter, TE and Rice almost did better than Walter too)

Cincinati (528) WR Hawkins 51 rec 533 yards 4td's 14.8% (3rd options but everyone else too low target%. Since this one is 2% more than Walter wouldn't bother)

San Diego (527) TE Gates 49 rec. 538 yards 7tds 14.8% (3rd option. Next closes is RB Ronnie Brown)

Cleveland (517) TE Watson 49 rec. 501 yards 3tds 14.5% (3rd option as receivers...once again...higher. RB Richardson closes)

Kevin Walter - 41 rec 518 yards 2tds 12.3% target percentage

Just looking at this it is almost seemingly like we are running three TE sets out there because Walter simply does not contribute as he use to. And no, this isn't just system base because under Kubiak we got more from receivers in the past including Walter in '07 and '08. In '06 our 2nd option was a receiver as well in Moulds. But this is 2013 and what can Walter contribute now?

And for the ones saying 'fanbase' this is not just the fans. Folks outside the organization say it as well. Heck, our owner said it. We need more from this position. We saw this in the playoffs and it should be apparent. Heck I took random mock drafts just for the feel how others think we should go and the breakdown was WR 5, ILB 4, Safety 2, TE 1, DT 1. But let's even look at our receiving playoff numbers:

Walter was 4th in receptions, last in yards, 2nd lowest avg. per reception (only Foster was lower by .3), and the lowest 1st down percentage. Yes, Posey did better than Walter on his few catches and less targets. It helped he can actually get down the field.

Defense simply bogged down, increased their presence in the box and began to stifle our offense. We can always go into the system with more of the same and hope it works. Or maybe we can evolve the offense by adding a playmaker at a spot most teams get more contribution for and take the offense to another level. Walter isn't faster now than he was in '08 so chances are we aren't getting that guy again. You don't get faster as you age.

And we can try to disregard stats if we wish but GM, scouts, etc. do not. PFF for example is utilized by a handful of actual NFL clubs. Two have admitted as such in the Giants and Bears. It is already illustrated Walter is not the top ten blocking WR that many seem to perceive he is. Receiving wise? He is ranked #72 among 105 receivers that got at least 25% of the snaps.

Simply put. There is no stat out there to illustrate Walter is a strong #2 receiver in this league. Nada. There are more numbers pointing to the complete opposite. Is he a bad receiver? Of course not. But he is not a #2 and this offense needs more weapons because Schaub will be the quarterback whether we like it or not (unless someone just comes in and goes lights out) and Kubiak will still call the plays. Something has to change and those two pieces aren't going to.
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Old 02-01-2013   #42
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

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Originally Posted by sandman View Post
The important thing to note that while their "Big Three" have more catches/yards than the Texans "Big Three", NE had 100+ more pass attempts than the Texans. That is why I was showing it based on percentages, to normalize the comparison.
The only problem with the "normalizing" argument I have, is that the QB will throw the ball to open receivers more than he would throw to covered receivers.

If the guy is not getting open it affects the percentage, it affects the "normalization"


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Originally Posted by sandman View Post
The ball distribution percentages between the Patriots and Texans are very similar. It's just that NE does it a hell of a lot better than the Texans.
I'm talking about more than just distribution, I'm talking about production per catch. It's not that Torry Smith caught more balls than Walter... he did more with those catches.

Imho, Baltimore & New England have a much better WR corps than we do, because they've got multiple play makers. Welker & Lloyd will hurt you in different ways. Boldin & Smith will hurt you in different ways. In 2012, we only had one WR on the field that had any chance of making a play with any regularity. That hurt us. It hurt us in the run game, it hurt us in the passing game, it hurt us in the red zone.

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The point I was trying to make is that while the Texans have a similar offense to NE, the Patriots are CLEARLY better in executing it. I want the Texans to get better in what they already do, than to go after another "stud" receiver.
Me too.... I'd like for them to get better at what they do as well, I don't want to ditch the play-book.

But the draft is coming. FA is coming. Why waste an opportunity to add talent to your offense?

Maybe you're thinking we need more help on the OL. & we might. But I liked what I saw from our young guys & they're only going to get better.

I'm worried that Posey isn't going to be the guy we need him to be (because of the injury) in 2013 & I "know" KDub isn't going to get any better.

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Originally Posted by sandman View Post
If you look at the Broncos, their "Big Three" stats from a percentage perspective is just like the Texans and Patriots.

Heck, the Ravens had FOUR receivers between 50-65 receptions (and none over 65) and yet are in the Super Bowl. In fact, in a quick check of all of the other playoff teams, only San Fran had the same percentage disparity to their "Big Three" as the Falcons did, and yet their #2 (TE) and #3 (WR) guys caught 42 passes each. And yet, despite catching 20 less balls than the Texans #2 (TE) and #3 (WR), they are in the Super Bowl as well.
Again, with the Ravens.... It's not about how many balls they caught, it's what they did with it. What's more dangerous, two 1000 yard receivers? Or one?

Two makes it more difficult for the defense to "figure you out"

Andre & Walter combine for 2000 yards, where Bolden & Torry Smith combine for 1700. If you were designing a defense to stop these two offenses, which is going to spread you out more? Which one is going to back up your defense more? LBs... deeper, DBs... deeper? Which one opens up the run game more? If I'm facing the Texans, I'm more likely to blitz, because I basically got a free DB running around out there.

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Originally Posted by sandman View Post
Again, not saying the Texans can't do what they do in the passing game a whole lot better, starting with the QB position, but there is league wide statistical evidence that the successful teams this year utilized their entire receiving corps a whole lot more than locking into a Big Three.
Then you've misunderstood me. I am not suggesting we lock onto our big three anymore than we do. I'm saying we should get more production from our big three, which will open it up for 4 thru 8, the running backs, the OL, & the QB.
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Originally Posted by sandman View Post
I'll say it again, KW is not the reason this offense faltered later in the season. I've always supported Schaub, but it sits on his shoulders. Well, and Dennison for the completely predictable and unimaginative play-calling.
I don't blame Kevin Walter for being Kevin Walter. I blame Posey & Jean for not being able to get on the field sooner. I blame Kubiak for not getting them ready sooner. & I blame Matt Schaub for not getting that chemistry going like it needed to be.

I like Walter, but he's got a place on this team that is defined by his ability & his production, just like Jacoby Jones. They are not #2 WRs, they are #3 WRs.

Show me a #2 that you'd trade KDub for that produces what KDub does. Don't bring me #3 WRs that are younger, show me a #2 that is comparable to Kevin Walter.
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Old 02-01-2013   #43
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

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Originally Posted by deucetx View Post
And no one is saying Walter is at fault for the offense. That would be a bit silly. Saying that a piece needs to be upgraded does not equal the entire offense sitting on their shoulders. But plain and simple we aren't getting enough out of that position. Yeah it rest on Schaub shoulders but he isn't going anywhere. So we sit around going with status quo or do we upgrade and get better? Oh and Dennison doesn't call the plays. Kubiak does. He just has input.

Even the teams you brought up, every receiver in those equations is more talented than Walter as a receiver. There are no if's and's or but's about it. And an offense can only be executed up to the level of your personnel. If you have only one receiver capable of stretching a field or getting open without a scheme/playaction, you are hindered offensively. People seem to not think that maybe Walter isn't targetted even more because they don't find him as capable? He lost plays to Posey from week 15+ for a reason.

And if you want to hit percentages here are five quarterbacks who threw it less or more than Schaub (544):

Denver (583) - Best comparison: Stokley - 45 rec 544yds 5tds 58 targets 9.9% target (4th option tied w/Dressn) Stokley had a lower target percent to Walter (12.3 to 9.9) yet still had better production. And again, 4th option.

Oakland (565) - Heyward-Bey 41rec 606yards 5tds 80 targets 12.7% target

Tampa Bay (558) - No one to really compare. Their top two were targetted 20%+ (Jackson/Williams) and are of course better than Walter. Closes to Walter % was Martin the RB who almost had better numbers than Walter from that position which is a bit sad.

Green Bay (552) - They all out produced Walter (Nelson, Jones, Cobb) but we'll take the guy with the closes percentage in Nelson - 49 rec 745yards 7tds 73 targets 13.1 target%

St. Louis (551) TE Kendricks 42 rec 519 yards 4td's 11.5% (Top 3 receivers all better than Walter but w/ target % from 14.5 - 18.1)

NYG (536) WR Hixon 39 rec 567 yards 2tds 10.9% (again 4th option as top two receivers and TE out-produced Walter easily)

Baltimore (531) WR Jones 30 rec 409 yards 1td 9.6% (5th option. Top receivers easily better than Walter, TE and Rice almost did better than Walter too)

Cincinati (528) WR Hawkins 51 rec 533 yards 4td's 14.8% (3rd options but everyone else too low target%. Since this one is 2% more than Walter wouldn't bother)

San Diego (527) TE Gates 49 rec. 538 yards 7tds 14.8% (3rd option. Next closes is RB Ronnie Brown)

Cleveland (517) TE Watson 49 rec. 501 yards 3tds 14.5% (3rd option as receivers...once again...higher. RB Richardson closes)

Kevin Walter - 41 rec 518 yards 2tds 12.3% target percentage

Just looking at this it is almost seemingly like we are running three TE sets out there because Walter simply does not contribute as he use to. And no, this isn't just system base because under Kubiak we got more from receivers in the past including Walter in '07 and '08. In '06 our 2nd option was a receiver as well in Moulds. But this is 2013 and what can Walter contribute now?

And for the ones saying 'fanbase' this is not just the fans. Folks outside the organization say it as well. Heck, our owner said it. We need more from this position. We saw this in the playoffs and it should be apparent. Heck I took random mock drafts just for the feel how others think we should go and the breakdown was WR 5, ILB 4, Safety 2, TE 1, DT 1. But let's even look at our receiving playoff numbers:

Walter was 4th in receptions, last in yards, 2nd lowest avg. per reception (only Foster was lower by .3), and the lowest 1st down percentage. Yes, Posey did better than Walter on his few catches and less targets. It helped he can actually get down the field.

Defense simply bogged down, increased their presence in the box and began to stifle our offense. We can always go into the system with more of the same and hope it works. Or maybe we can evolve the offense by adding a playmaker at a spot most teams get more contribution for and take the offense to another level. Walter isn't faster now than he was in '08 so chances are we aren't getting that guy again. You don't get faster as you age.

And we can try to disregard stats if we wish but GM, scouts, etc. do not. PFF for example is utilized by a handful of actual NFL clubs. Two have admitted as such in the Giants and Bears. It is already illustrated Walter is not the top ten blocking WR that many seem to perceive he is. Receiving wise? He is ranked #72 among 105 receivers that got at least 25% of the snaps.

Simply put. There is no stat out there to illustrate Walter is a strong #2 receiver in this league. Nada. There are more numbers pointing to the complete opposite. Is he a bad receiver? Of course not. But he is not a #2 and this offense needs more weapons because Schaub will be the quarterback whether we like it or not (unless someone just comes in and goes lights out) and Kubiak will still call the plays. Something has to change and those two pieces aren't going to.
Excellent points. I like looking at stats. And the intent of my posts have not been about a KW lovefest. I'm simply pointing out that the two teams in the Super Bowl did not have #2 and #3 stats that were significantly different than what the Texans #2 and #3 guys did.

It comes back to the point that I originally commented on: does this team need two 90+ receivers to be successful?

KW is 10 years in and a 40-50 reception a season kind of guy. There is a place for him on this team. I just think there are people caught up in the "#2" next to his name. And I don't think you have to go find a 90+ reception guy to be on the other side of AJ in order for this team to be successful in the passing game. I don't think that is how this offense is designed. There seems to be a fixation on "stud". Keeping KW (or at least his production) and adding a 60-70 reception guy seems like a better fit for this offense. IMHO, of course.
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Old 02-01-2013   #44
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

Walter didn't lose snaps.
Before the bye week he was in between 64-70% of the time.
After the bye week, he was normally in between 74-86% of the time.

There were a couple of exceptions (week 15, when the Texans had a comfortable 23-10 lead over the Colts, and the last regular game of the season, when Kubiak probably wanted to give him a little rest.)

His snap counts picked right back up in the play-offs.

It was Jean and Martin who lost snaps to Posey.
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Old 02-01-2013   #45
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

Advanced NFL Stats has a couple of measures (WPA/g) and (EPA/p).

Among all receivers, Walter ranked 49th in Win Probability Added per game, which signifies a middle of the road second receiver.

However, he ranked 28th in Expected Point Added per play, which puts him in the category of the #1 receiver.

And these stats don't even measure blocking, which has always been Walter's forte.

These are the stats that matter; those that help put points on the board, and to win games.
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Old 02-01-2013   #46
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
Advanced NFL Stats has a couple of measures (WPA/g) and (EPA/p).

Among all receivers, Walter ranked 49th in Win Probability Added per game, which signifies a middle of the road second receiver.

However, he ranked 28th in Expected Point Added per play, which puts him in the category of the #1 receiver.



How deep did you have to go to find these "stats" ??
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Old 02-01-2013   #47
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

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Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post



How deep did you have to go to find these "stats" ??
Not deep at all.
No matter what, I had stated several times (from the time I first joined the old TT board) that I have loved stats from a younger age. I kept stats with stacks and stacks of newspapers in highschool and by going to the library before the age of the PC.

At any rate, Walter isn't even the third option on this team.
He's been the fourth option since 2010. Foster is third with 239 targets to Walter's 219.

That's just the way the Texans run their offense.

In fact, when Jacoby was here, he had more targets than Walter in 2010 and 2012 (3 and 4 more respectively.) So if you go strictly by numbers, Walter was the fifth option in those two years.
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Old 02-01-2013   #48
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

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Originally Posted by 76Texan View Post
At any rate, Walter isn't even the third option on this team.
He's been the fourth option since 2010. Foster is third with 239 targets to Walter's 219.

That's just the way the Texans run their offense.

In fact, when Jacoby was here, he had more targets than Walter in 2010 and 2012 (3 and 4 more respectively.) So if you go strictly by numbers, Walter was the fifth option in those two years.
& you don't see a problem with that?

I don't believe, "That's just the way the Texans run their offense" I think that's the way we "have" to run our offense, until we get a better option at #2 WR.

There is no #1 target, #2 target. Schaub comes to the line, look at the defense & decides then who his #1 option is going to be. Most of the times it's supposed to be Andre, sometimes it's supposed to be Owen, or Arian, but if they don't get the defensive look that they want, it changes & there are rules for how he goes through his progression at that time.

I'm betting if we had a true #2 WR, That position would be his #1 option more often than it is now, because he would expect that WR to get open against more defenses.

If your #2 WR is so far down the list that he's the 5th option, that 4 players get more targets in the passing game.... something is wrong.
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Old 02-01-2013   #49
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

Anyone who doesn't see the need to upgrade at #2 WR is either Walter's wife or mother....
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Old 02-01-2013   #50
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

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Anyone who doesn't see the need to upgrade at #2 WR is either Walter's wife or mother....
The argument is not about whether we need a better #2. It's about the concept of what a #2 on this team, in this system, should look like.

There was a span for three years where Walter was a legit #2, averaging 60 receptions, 5 TD's and 775 yards a season. The last three seasons, he's looked like a #3 posession receiver and yet nobody has been able to take his reps/targets away.

You can blame Schaub, Kubiak or all of the WR's who couldn't step up. Your choice.
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Old 02-01-2013   #51
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

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Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post
& you don't see a problem with that?

I don't believe, "That's just the way the Texans run their offense" I think that's the way we "have" to run our offense, until we get a better option at #2 WR.

There is no #1 target, #2 target. Schaub comes to the line, look at the defense & decides then who his #1 option is going to be. Most of the times it's supposed to be Andre, sometimes it's supposed to be Owen, or Arian, but if they don't get the defensive look that they want, it changes & there are rules for how he goes through his progression at that time.

I'm betting if we had a true #2 WR, That position would be his #1 option more often than it is now, because he would expect that WR to get open against more defenses.

If your #2 WR is so far down the list that he's the 5th option, that 4 players get more targets in the passing game.... something is wrong.
But it is.
Before Jacoby, the Texans had Andre Davis; this year, they tried to replace this deep threat with Jean and Posey.

Walter normally is targeted deep on some 24.5 % of the passes thrown his way, AJ some 26%.

AD (34%), Jones (31%), Jean, and Posey are the deep threats.
(Jean and Posey combined for 11 of 26 deep targets - 4 of 14 for Posey and 7 of 12 for Jean.)

This year, due to the inexperience of Jean and Posey, Walter was targeted deep more often (32.4%) with Schaub missing some due to pressure (and a few due to inaccuracy - whether just poor throws or normal difficulty that goes along with a deeper throw.)
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Old 02-02-2013   #52
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

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Originally Posted by CloakNNNdagger View Post
This should help


I was talking to a buddy today actually about this. He doesn't want a young wr because of the break in time,but I responded with simple numbers. Owen daniels had more targets than torrey smith and josh gordon, yet those guys produced more yards by far. I mean, if you take torrey smith the last 2 yrs, he's averaging 100 targets,50 recs, 800 yds and 8tds. Josh gordon had 96 tagets,50 catches and 800 yds playing with a 0 opposite of him and a rookie qb. I don't see why the texans couldn't draft a wr to play opposite andre who couldn't get 16-18 ypc with 50 recs and 800 yds or so. This isn't new, but maybe schaub needs to stop checking down to daniels and start pressing the ball to guys who can actually do more than catch and fall down.
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Old 02-02-2013   #53
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

Quote:
Originally Posted by leebigeztx View Post
I was talking to a buddy today actually about this. He doesn't want a young wr because of the break in time,but I responded with simple numbers. Owen daniels had more targets than torrey smith and josh gordon, yet those guys produced more yards by far. I mean, if you take torrey smith the last 2 yrs, he's averaging 100 targets,50 recs, 800 yds and 8tds. Josh gordon had 96 tagets,50 catches and 800 yds playing with a 0 opposite of him and a rookie qb. I don't see why the texans couldn't draft a wr to play opposite andre who couldn't get 16-18 ypc with 50 recs and 800 yds or so. This isn't new, but maybe schaub needs to stop checking down to daniels and start pressing the ball to guys who can actually do more than catch and fall down.
Schaub simply cant make those throws into tight windows .... he lacks the zip to fit them in. That's why we see so many checkdowns ..... I'd rather he check them down that turn the ball over ...
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Old 02-02-2013   #54
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

There are things that don't show up on the stats sheet.
Gordon, for example, had quite a few long catches where the secondary simply bombed (similar to how Demps allowed a couple of plays.)

In the first half of the Dolphins game alone, Walter could have had 2 TDs.
On the first one, Schaub had a guy in his grill and threw the ball away.
On the second one, he drew a defensive PI to give the Texans first and goal at the 2, after which Foster scored on a TD run.

But no, people don't need to watch the game; all they have to do is to pull up some fantasy football numbers.

I have the screenshots and will either post them or up a link to photobucket sometimes today.
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Old 02-02-2013   #55
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

Quote:
Originally Posted by leebigeztx View Post
I was talking to a buddy today actually about this. He doesn't want a young wr because of the break in time,but I responded with simple numbers. Owen daniels had more targets than torrey smith and josh gordon, yet those guys produced more yards by far. I mean, if you take torrey smith the last 2 yrs, he's averaging 100 targets,50 recs, 800 yds and 8tds. Josh gordon had 96 tagets,50 catches and 800 yds playing with a 0 opposite of him and a rookie qb. I don't see why the texans couldn't draft a wr to play opposite andre who couldn't get 16-18 ypc with 50 recs and 800 yds or so.
With a true first round talent (whether we get him in the second or whatever) I would think it would be possible. But, with wins being such a premium, I doubt Kubiak will have the foresight to look to the future & get the youngun on the field early. If we're lucky & we can find a guy who works like Martin, maybe he can earn early playing time, then it's up to him to do better with that opportunity than LeStar, Martin, & Posey has.

But if we find ourselves too close to .500, we won't see any new faces that aren't necessary due to injury. Andre, Walter, OD, & Graham are going to have to find a way to win with Schaub.
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Originally Posted by leebigeztx View Post
This isn't new, but maybe schaub needs to stop checking down to daniels and start pressing the ball to guys who can actually do more than catch and fall down.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Corrosion View Post
Schaub simply cant make those throws into tight windows .... he lacks the zip to fit them in. That's why we see so many checkdowns ..... I'd rather he check them down that turn the ball over ...
Schaub's got some limitations. Refusal to throw it deep isn't one of them. We've consistently been among the more explosive teams in the league for at least the last 5 years.

And now his arm "simply" isn't strong enough to make throws he's regularly made over the last 6 years.... uh-huh..

Maybe some of you are afraid to be caught on the wrong side of another QB thing, like David Carr. Maybe some of you are trying so hard to convince yourselves that Schaub is as bad as Carr to give you some sliver of hope that we'll replace him. I don't know what it is but as a long time critic of Matt Schaub I know what his issues are & what they aren't, & I've seen what he's been able to do in spite of those limitations.

As a longtime NFL fan, who respects both of your NFL opinions, I fear that you've been hypnotized by all that is RG3, or Kaepernick, or Wilson. I want one too, but I'm not willing to give up on a good NFL QB for what has failed to generate any long-term success in the NFL. The new Vick, that's all I'm seeing so far.

Maybe, one of them will be the next McNabb, McNair or Cunningham...... maybe. But more time than not, they end up as the next Vick, or the next Young.

I worry most about Russell Wilson, his situation reminds me too much of Shuan Kings Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
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Old 02-02-2013   #56
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

Walter at the top of the screen; AJ in the slot.
Due to play action fake, the LBs stepped up.
The middle safety had to cut off AJ, leaving Walter wide open in the middle;
too bad, Schaub had to throw the ball away due to pressure:


[IMG][/IMG]

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Old 02-02-2013   #57
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Old 02-02-2013   #58
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One All-22 View







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Old 02-02-2013   #59
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Default Re: WR catch rate: Texans

The PI; Walter is at the bottom of the screen.
He put on a double move and beat the receiver to the corner.







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Old 02-02-2013   #60
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