WR catch rate: Texans

[badboy]

Originally Posted by deucetx

Even going on about the other receivers...how much opportunity were they given for them to be labelled 'failure'? Receiver is one of the hardest developed positions in the league per GM's, scouts, coaches and mere facts. So two rookies and a one year player are failures even when you add they got little time actually on the field or opportunity? That's a bit of a reach. Not all come out the gate like AJ Green or Julio Jones. Those are rare breeds.

Plus I would hardly say Posey was a failure. From week 15 forward he began taking away time from Walter to the point it was almost 50-50 in some games in amount of plays in the game and overly from that stretch and through the playoffs it fell below a 2:1 ratio. That means he progressed and did something at practices and on film that the coaches liked. That is taking the next step forward. Hardly a failure for a kid who didn't even play football the previous season.

That was something positive for the kid. The injury of course may have thrown that out of whack now but the fact we actually saw progress makes that case not a failure. The other two are incomplete so I wouldn't label them failures at this point. Could they turn out to be? Course. But it is too early to judge them to the point of success and failure. A big fat INC grade seems more correct and unfortunately for them, we're a contender now. So they may lose some because we need production today which means another body coming in that may take from their own progress.

I think you are seeing incremental improvement and calling that success. Going from a 3 to a 4 is success but hardly what should be expected. I expected more and reasonably so imo.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by badboy

I think you are seeing incremental improvement and calling that success. Going from a 3 to a 4 is success but hardly what should be expected. I expected more and reasonably so imo.

I was hoping Devier Posey was going to have a Victor Cruz type year.

[tru80texan]

Originally Posted by badboy

Not saying either should be starters but come on Jean has two years learning system & should have had more than 12 catches from 24 attempts in '12? Sure, I'm willing to give Posey another year but 14 catches at 43% of targets? Then add on to this his penalties = failure. Both could be pro bowlers next season but as for last year...boo. I am grading them on this year as I did with KJ on his first. Does not mean career failure but both get "F" imo for 2012.

I also disagree on your man love comment for Walter blocking; Kevin has history of holding onto the ball. It has been noted on this MB that Kubiak let Posey on field as he had approved in blocking.

Of course you disagree concerning the man love for Walters overrated blocking. I would not expect anything less considring you, & many others, try to excuse his ineffectiveness as a wr by justifying it w/ the "great blocker" defense. As I mentioned earlier, NONE of the wr's have ever been criticised by anyone for having glaring deficiencies at run blocking. It just seems that those that choose to defend Walter have to resort to that to glorify him. As far as his "sure" hands or holding on to the ball, that obviously regressed this season based on CnD's chart. Even though others had more opportunities & thus more opportunities to fail he still was outperformed by Andre & right in line w/ Owen. Nothing spectacular by any means, which pretty much describes Walter in a nut shell imo.

You do realize Jean was placed on the IR for the 2011 season & had a knee injury that caused him to miss some time in 2012? Learning a playbook & being on the field to execute it are 2 totally different things. 2011 didn't do much for his development due to being limited on what, if any, team activities he could participate in due to his IR designation. So holding that year against him hardly seems fair when judging him imo. 2012 was basically his rookie season & the knee injury did hamper that as well. Ignoring both of those factors would be foolish when judging him imo. Concerning his production, once again PRODUCTION can only be achieved if given an OPPORTUNITY. The latter is NOT something that Jean, Martin, or Posey got much of until late in the season & even then it was fairly limited.

Comparing all of their rookie seasons to Walter is a bit skewed considering their experience levels & opportunities, but I do understand the desperation in trying raise Walter above the rest w/out giving them a fair chance because it does seem the writing is on the wall for Walter. When the owner speaks, the employees should listen & the owner wants a WR w/ playmaking ability....thank goodness!

[76Texan]

Once again, looking at a few individual numbers, especially at WR, is for fantasy football owners.

If you want to look at number of catches, at least you have to know many pass attempts a team has. A #2 receiver on a team that throws more "should have" more opportunities to catch the ball.
A team with a great #1 receiver normally target those guys more.

Then you have to look at the philosophy of teams; some look for their TEs more than others; some like to take more shots downfield (at the risk of a lower completion rate and more INTs.)

If you look at Yd per Route Ran, don't forget that Fitzgerald's number is really close to Walter; that doesn't mean that he suck, especially for a #1 receiver.

You may not care for Walter's blocking ability, but other guys on the team do.
They know it gives them the chance to go long.

A number that people seems to ignore is the percentage of deep targets; Walter actually had a higher percentage than AJ last year.

If you look at the pass distribution since Kubiak has been here, Walter's role has been very steady. He plays his role very well. He would get more targets if AJ or OD goes out, things like that.

The dollar value the Texans put on him may look "out of whack" to us fans.
Personally, I had stated before the season started that I hope to see Jean and Posey get involved, but neither showed up consistently. Martin, as the slot guy, was also inconsistent.

None of these guys have done anything remotely close to push Walter down the depth chart.

It's up to Jean and Posey to up their game, but with the setback to Posey, it's not going to be easy.

The good thing is that this upcoming draft class is quite deep at receivers.
With the recent run at the position the last few years (it's going to be less of a need overall in the league), it might be the time for the Texans to look for a receiver or two in the next few drafts.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by ckhouston

Didn't say he was a #2, just that he was the Texans second best.

That leads me to believe that even if we could pick up a legitimate #2, he is still valuable.

It's just that each fan has a different "definition" of a #2 receiver.

Then, we look back and recall at the time when Kubiak called Walter and Jacoby 2a and 2b; he was really honest there. That is what he looks for in his system: Two guys to complement AJ: One who can stretch the field, and aother to do all the yeoman's work.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

It's just that each fan has a different "definition" of a #2 receiver.

Then, we look back and recall at the time when Kubiak called Walter and Jacoby 2a and 2b; he was really honest there. That is what he looks for in his system: Two guys to complement AJ: One who can stretch the field, and aother to do all the yeoman's work.

I don't know about that. People thought Kubiak & Shanahan "wanted" a RBbC thing in the backfield, but both have shown that when they get a guy who can run, break tackles, catch, & block, they have no problem relying on him as a "feature" back.

Walter is our #2, he & Jacoby were 2a & 2b...... because we didn't have a #2.

I don't think that is what Kubiak wants, I think that's just what he's been able to get with the priority he's been able to put on WR considering all the other issues we've had on the team.

I agree with ckhouston & Rey. Walter isn't worthless, I have no problem if he ended up being the #3 WR on this team.... which is what he is.

I also have no problem with him being the #2 if no one can beat him out. That at least shows us that we don't hand out starting positions just because & they need to be earned.

But I think we need to step up the competition by throwing some elite talent at the position. A 1st or 2nd round WR in the upcoming draft, or a pseudo elite FA.

[tru80texan]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

Once again, looking at a few individual numbers, especially at WR, is for fantasy football owners.

If you want to look at number of catches, at least you have to know many pass attempts a team has. A #2 receiver on a team that throws more "should have" more opportunities to catch the ball.
A team with a great #1 receiver normally target those guys more.

Then you have to look at the philosophy of teams; some look for their TEs more than others; some like to take more shots downfield (at the risk of a lower completion rate and more INTs.)

If you look at Yd per Route Ran, don't forget that Fitzgerald's number is really close to Walter; that doesn't mean that he suck, especially for a #1 receiver.

You may not care for Walter's blocking ability, but other guys on the team do.
They know it gives them the chance to go long.

A number that people seems to ignore is the percentage of deep targets; Walter actually had a higher percentage than AJ last year.

If you look at the pass distribution since Kubiak has been here, Walter's role has been very steady. He plays his role very well. He would get more targets if AJ or OD goes out, things like that.

The dollar value the Texans put on him may look "out of whack" to us fans.
Personally, I had stated before the season started that I hope to see Jean and Posey get involved, but neither showed up consistently. Martin, as the slot guy, was also inconsistent.

None of these guys have done anything remotely close to push Walter down the depth chart.

It's up to Jean and Posey to up their game, but with the setback to Posey, it's not going to be easy.

The good thing is that this upcoming draft class is quite deep at receivers.
With the recent run at the position the last few years (it's going to be less of a need overall in the league), it might be the time for the Texans to look for a receiver or two in the next few drafts.

Individual stats primarily for fantasy football. Now that is laughable to say the least because I'm sure stats are something that is evaluated by many when evaluating players & their worth for contract purposes & so forth. Ignoring stats would be foolish because they do tend to paint the picture of an individuals production even when its the production or lack thereof of another individual on the team.

Which leads me into your gross comparison of Fitzgerald & Walter. It disgusts me that you even suggested that the 2 are even close to each other to be honest, but once again I understand the desperation in the defense of Walter. While Fitzgerald's stats have not been anything spectacular of late we can all reference the multiple QB's STATS that have started for the Cardinals & easily see where the problem lies. So your comparison is skewed to say the least. A wr w/ no legitimate QB vs a wr w/ no legitimate seperation skills who's play has REGRESSED compared to when he 1st arrived, not maintained as you falsely claimed, is far from being accurately portrayed.

Blaming the scheme is just another weak attempt at trying to mask the issue. Walter is a WR. They are expected to make plays. He cannot based on his physical attributes or lack thereof. The reason the TE's are involved are because they are finding openings that Walter simply cannot. When a QB looks at the #1 wr & then the 2 TE's to make plays then there is a problem. I truly doubt the offense is geared to look over the #2 wr as often as it happens. That can easily be proven because when Kubiak was the OC in Denver they had Ed McCafferey & Rod Smith who were very active in the offense. Which proves his system Feb & has incorporated the #2 wr as a receiving option & not only as a blocking option. So its not the system that is limiting Walter, it is Walter limiting the system imo.


Its not that I don't care that Walter can block, its that I don't overly glorify his blocking as many others do in hopes of increasing his value in others eyes. I appreciate that they ALL seem to be able to block fairly adequately because none have been criticised for not being able to block. In other words, its nothing special when they all can do it & I'm sure the teammates appreciate all of them for that.

We can at least agree that there are some decent prospects at wr in the draft. Let's just hope they address it w/ a player who is somewhat prepared to play day 1 as opposed to waiting nearly the full regular season before getting them in there to help this team.

[tru80texan]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

I don't know about that. People thought Kubiak & Shanahan "wanted" a RBbC thing in the backfield, but both have shown that when they get a guy who can run, break tackles, catch, & block, they have no problem relying on him as a "feature" back.

Walter is our #2, he & Jacoby were 2a & 2b...... because we didn't have a #2.

I don't think that is what Kubiak wants, I think that's just what he's been able to get with the priority he's been able to put on WR considering all the other issues we've had on the team.

I agree with ckhouston & Rey. Walter isn't worthless, I have no problem if he ended up being the #3 WR on this team.... which is what he is.

I also have no problem with him being the #2 if no one can beat him out. That at least shows us that we don't hand out starting positions just because & they need to be earned.

But I think we need to step up the competition by throwing some elite talent at the position. A 1st or 2nd round WR in the upcoming draft, or a pseudo elite FA.

I would have no problem with this IF the position was adequately addressed & there was some note worthy competition brought in to compete. Outside of Jacoby & Andre Davis there hasn't been one legitimate FA or rookie brought in to compete. Jacoby was a project just as Posey, Martin, & Jean are. How is that a true competition? An UDFA coming off of a season on the IR & 2 rookies to compete against a vet whom by most accounts is looked upon favorably in the HC's eyes despite his lack of production. Sounds like true competition to me. Bring in a young vet FA w/ potential or a high draft pick who is highly regarded & lets see a true competition & battle. That simply has not happened by Kubiak & Rick Smith's doing & there is nothing about Walter's poor performance at the #2 that suggest that grass is not greener on the other side.

[76Texan]

I'm on my IPhone so it's hard for me to cut and paste; let's take things one at a time.

Let's first look at production.

Why don't you (whoever wants to replace Walter) give me the production of the rest in the league (including how many pass attempts those teams had); let's find out where Walter's production in numbers looks like.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by tru80texan

I would have no problem with this IF the position was adequately addressed & there was some note worthy competition brought in to compete. Outside of Jacoby & Andre Davis there hasn't been one legitimate FA or rookie brought in to compete. Jacoby was a project just as Posey, Martin, & Jean are. How is that a true competition? An UDFA coming off of a season on the IR & 2 rookies to compete against a vet whom by most accounts is looked upon favorably in the HC's eyes despite his lack of production. Sounds like true competition to me. Bring in a young vet FA w/ potential or a high draft pick who is highly regarded & lets see a true competition & battle. That simply has not happened by Kubiak & Rick Smith's doing & there is nothing about Walter's poor performance at the #2 that suggest that grass is not greener on the other side.

Now, you're talking about Madden.
Let's talk about FA the last couple of years, which guys were on your list?
Then we can talk about the draft, which guys?

You can talk with hindsight all you want; we'll take if from there, giving you all the benefits of most doubts.

[tru80texan]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

I'm on my IPhone so it's hard for me to cut and paste; let's take things one at a time.

Let's first look at production.

Why don't you (whoever wants to replace Walter) give me the production of the rest in the league (including how many pass attempts those teams had); let's find out where Walter's production in numbers looks like.

I'm on my phone as well, which is why I have some mistakes in my typing. I apologize for that. So your request is not going to happen from me & to be honest I'm not going to break down every single aspect of every teams offense in your attempt to justify one players worth. It's a waste of time & foolish because there are multiple NFL analysts/media, local media outlets, fans, & now even the TEXANS owner himself who say the #2 WR position is an issue that NEEDS to be addressed & the reason for that is simple...because it lacks production in its current state. And the player that is lacking....Kevin Walter. Pretty simple regardless of how complicated & indepth that you may try to get in hope of justifying his worth. It simply won't happen & because sometimes the truth is just painfully obvious.

With that being said, I politely agree to disagree because I obviously intend to side w/ the Texans owner on this matter.

[tru80texan]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

Now, you're talking about Madden.
Let's talk about FA the last couple of years, which guys were on your list?
Then we can talk about the draft, which guys?

You can talk with hindsight all you want; we'll take if from there, giving you all the benefits of most doubts.

Madden...you are killing me. I'm well aware of the fact that a salary cap exist & not every position can have an All Pro. You are the one talking Madden if you falsely assumed that only the big name FA can replace Walter. I have mentioned names of the players in other threads that I believe fall in the price range that Walter falls in & have the potential to replace him. Deverey Henderson, Jerome Simpson, Josh Cribbs, Danario Alexander, & Ramadan Barden are just a few that I would consider real competition. Broaden your horizons. Assuming the likes of Bowe & Jennings are the only true options to replace Walter is falling into your Madden & fantasy football stereotype which not something that I have done.

Dang it! I said I was finished & got sucked back in. LOL!

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by tru80texan

I'm on my phone as well, which is why I have some mistakes in my typing. I apologize for that. So your request is not going to happen from me & to be honest I'm not going to break down every single aspect of every teams offense in your attempt to justify one players worth. It's a waste of time & foolish because there are multiple NFL analysts/media, local media outlets, fans, & now even the TEXANS owner himself who say the #2 WR position is an issue that NEEDS to be addressed & the reason for that is simple...because it lacks production in its current state. And the player that is lacking....Kevin Walter. Pretty simple regardless of how complicated & indepth that you may try to get in hope of justifying his worth. It simply won't happen & because sometimes the truth is just painfully obvious.

With that being said, I politely agree to disagree because I obviously intend to side w/ the Texans owner on this matter.

There's nothing new there.
I've already mentioned Jacoby as the speed guy; that the system needs a speed guy.
They used Andre Davis before Jacoby; then they drafted Posey after Jacoby.
(In the draft forum; I wanted an even faster guy, but I can't really fault their draft strategy.)

It's easy to just point at something we don't like after a season; it's another matter to build a roster before the season starts.

At any rate, the off-season is long; you have plenty of time to quantify your concern.
It won't have to be whining just for the sake of whining.
If your time is not worth it, I will understand.

Many of us will still be here, no matter that we disagree on certain thing.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by tru80texan

Madden...you are killing me. I'm well aware of the fact that a salary cap exist & not every position can have an All Pro. You are the one talking Madden if you falsely assumed that only the big name FA can replace Walter. I have mentioned names of the players in other threads that I believe fall in the price range that Walter falls in & have the potential to replace him. Deverey Henderson, Jerome Simpson, Josh Cribbs, Danario Alexander, & Ramadan Barden are just a few that I would consider real competition. Broaden your horizons. Assuming the likes of Bowe & Jennings are the only true options to replace Walter is falling into your Madden & fantasy football stereotype which not something that I have done.

Dang it! I said I was finished & got sucked back in. LOL!

In the days ahead, we will visit these names.

[sandman]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, & Kevin Walter accounted for 215 catches, 2,832 yards, & 12 TDs

Roddy White, Tony Gonzales, and Julio Jones accounted for 264 catches, 3,479 yards, & 25 TDs

Comparing Walter to our receivers doesn't really put KDub's production in perspective to real #2 WR production.

Might need to pick a different team for a reasonable comparison.

Foster had more yards rushing this year than the entire Falcons team.

The Texans rushed over 500 times, almost 125 more times than Atlanta. So OF COURSE their top 3 receivers are going to have more catches, because they passed the ball more.

That being said, here are a few interesting TEAM stats between the two:

1. The average yard per catch for the Big Three on BOTH teams was 13.2
2. The aveage yard per catch for all other players was higher for the Texans by a full yard
3. The Falcons had 65% of their attempts go to their Big Three, while the Texans only had 60%
4. The Falcons had 75% of their total receiving yards gained by their Big Three, while the Texans had 70%

What does all that mean? That the Texans did a better job of utilizing their entire receiving, tight end and running back corps in their passing game.

Now let's talk about the Patriots, who kicked Texan ass twice this season. Their Big Three were targeted at the same rate at the Texans Big Three, had fewer yards per catch and fewer of their total team receiving yards.

And yet, all of their other receivers averaged almost the same yards per catch as their Big Three. In other words, they killed everyone with a multitude of smaller weapons.

And in all honesty, if you are asking me to choose between a Big Three like Atlanta or the Patriot Receiver by Committee, I'll take the proven success of New England.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by tru80texan

That simply has not happened by Kubiak & Rick Smith's doing & there is nothing about Walter's poor performance at the #2 that suggest that grass is not greener on the other side.

Because the defense sucked & Kubiak has been able to put together a top 10 offense, for the most part, with the likes of KDub.

We spent a 6th to get Myers. Two 2nds to get Schaub, a 3rd on Spencer (injured his rookie season), a 3rd on Winston (cap casualty), a 2nd on Tate (year 4 coming up), & some FA dollars on Wade Smith.

Other than that, we invested most of our capital on the defensive side of the ball...... because it was needed.

Now that we've got the well respected Wade Phillips, hopefully we'll see more second/third day picks (is there a third day anymore?) significantly contribute to the success of this team & we can spend some of our assets on offense.

I still think Posey was a good shot..... not for this season, but for the future, & I don't think Jacoby was a waste. I think he progressed well & the Texans chose wrong in keeping Walter... but both are #3s.... you can only get away with paying #3 WRs $1M+ for so long.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

I'm on my IPhone so it's hard for me to cut and paste; let's take things one at a time.

Let's first look at production.

Why don't you (whoever wants to replace Walter) give me the production of the rest in the league (including how many pass attempts those teams had); let's find out where Walter's production in numbers looks like.

Because bad WRs don't get the ball thrown at them.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by sandman

And in all honesty, if you are asking me to choose between a Big Three like Atlanta or the Patriot Receiver by Committee, I'll take the proven success of New England.

You make a good argument.

Different strokes & all that. Their star WR is their slot WR. He's the Yac guy. Our Yac guy is Andre. Their other big play maker is Gronk. We got OD, a step down, but OD is better than your avg TE. Their speed guy is Lloyd. Who is our speed guy? Oh, that's Andre again.

So what function does Walter play? He's not stretching the field. He's not a play maker. He's not a mismatch for anyone on the defensive side of the ball. He's our "possession" guy..... but Andre is a better possession WR than Walter & he's more likely to get thrown to on 3rd down... so what is Walter's purpose again?

Our #1 receiver vs their #1 receiver;
--Andre 1598 yards 4TDs
--Welker 1354 yards 6 TDs

comparable I think.

Our TE vs their TE
--Owen 716 yards, 6 TDs
--Gronk 790 yards, 11 TDs

Comparable... sorta

Our #2 WR vs their #2
--KDub 518 yards, 2 TDs
--Lloyd 911 yards, 4 TDs





By the way, New England had more rushing attempts than we did.


New England also had a guy, 51 catches, 483 yards, 5 TDs..... pretty comparable to Walter

They've got another guy, 40 catches, 446 yards, 3 TDs... pretty comparable to Walter.

That's Aaron Hernandez their 2nd TE & Danny Woodhead their 3rd down back.

[sandman]

Originally Posted by thunderkyss

You make a good argument.

Different strokes & all that. Their star WR is their slot WR. He's the Yac guy. Our Yac guy is Andre. Their other big play maker is Gronk. We got OD, a step down, but OD is better than your avg TE. Their speed guy is Lloyd. Who is our speed guy? Oh, that's Andre again.

So what function does Walter play? He's not stretching the field. He's not a play maker. He's not a mismatch for anyone on the defensive side of the ball. He's our "possession" guy..... but Andre is a better possession WR than Walter & he's more likely to get thrown to on 3rd down... so what is Walter's purpose again?

Our #1 receiver vs their #1 receiver;
--Andre 1598 yards 4TDs
--Welker 1354 yards 6 TDs

comparable I think.

Our TE vs their TE
--Owen 716 yards, 6 TDs
--Gronk 790 yards, 11 TDs

Comparable... sorta

Our #2 WR vs their #2
--KDub 518 yards, 2 TDs
--Lloyd 911 yards, 4 TDs





By the way, New England had more rushing attempts than we did.


New England also had a guy, 51 catches, 483 yards, 5 TDs..... pretty comparable to Walter

They've got another guy, 40 catches, 446 yards, 3 TDs... pretty comparable to Walter.

That's Aaron Hernandez their 2nd TE & Danny Woodhead their 3rd down back.

The important thing to note that while their "Big Three" have more catches/yards than the Texans "Big Three", NE had 100+ more pass attempts than the Texans. That is why I was showing it based on percentages, to normalize the comparison.

The ball distribution percentages between the Patriots and Texans are very similar. It's just that NE does it a hell of a lot better than the Texans.

It's their ability to trot out #4 through #8 and have them get the same average YPC that their starters do that make them so dangerous. I don't have an issue with the Texans having a cadre of 40-60 reception WR/TE.

And yes, NE was just as good as the Texans with rushing this year. The point I was trying to make is that while the Texans have a similar offense to NE, the Patriots are CLEARLY better in executing it. I want the Texans to get better in what they already do, than to go after another "stud" receiver.

If you look at the Broncos, their "Big Three" stats from a percentage perspective is just like the Texans and Patriots.

Heck, the Ravens had FOUR receivers between 50-65 receptions (and none over 65) and yet are in the Super Bowl. In fact, in a quick check of all of the other playoff teams, only San Fran had the same percentage disparity to their "Big Three" as the Falcons did, and yet their #2 (TE) and #3 (WR) guys caught 42 passes each. And yet, despite catching 20 less balls than the Texans #2 (TE) and #3 (WR), they are in the Super Bowl as well.

Again, not saying the Texans can't do what they do in the passing game a whole lot better, starting with the QB position, but there is league wide statistical evidence that the successful teams this year utilized their entire receiving corps a whole lot more than locking into a Big Three.

And I think with the rules heavily favoring the offenses and QB's, you've got to be able to put out multiple receiver sets and take advantage of it.

I'll say it again, KW is not the reason this offense faltered later in the season. I've always supported Schaub, but it sits on his shoulders. Well, and Dennison for the completely predictable and unimaginative play-calling.

[76Texan]

Don't forget their offensive line, whether they truly ranked second as per PFF or not, that is a very very good unit.

Ours might be ranked tenth, but I think the scheme, help them out some with the flow going one way and the roll out to the opposite direction, taking some stress off the Olinemen.