A Little Breakdown on Rick Smith

[tru80texan]

Originally Posted by b0ng

To add to this, when you start off your article with the hand waving the selection of two All-Pro's, you can tell it will be heavily biased. I also don't really agree with the notion that the Texans are in a dire situation salary cap wise. Some cuts will have to be made but I doubt they bring nothing in free agency.

I'm of the opinion Smith is doing a good job bringing in talent, and retaining talent on the roster. I can't imagine being upset at any recent big name signing in free agency, but I could be overlooking something.

Outside of Joseph, Manning, & Smith( although some may say they overpaid for Smith) most of their other FA signings have not panned out. Reeves, Ahman Green, & the trade for Philip Buchanon are just a few of the questionable moves. As I said earlier, those could be growing pains, but the premature resigning of Schaub, Walter, & Jacoby have been their questionable moves of late. Walter was forced to take a pay cut in the 2nd year of his latest contract or he could've easily been released similar to jacoby who requested his release 1 yr after he was signed to a new contract. Schaubs play of late have many questioning whether or not the Texans should've waited before resigning him.

You are right the Texans do have a lot of young talent, but it remains to be seen if he can retain them as many of them are playing under their rookie contracts & are not an issue just yet. The fun begins starting this season as Quin & Barwin are due up & it seems 1 of them will possibly be lost. Time will tell & let's see if Smith can earn his money.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by tru80texan

I think you are being a bit generous in your assessment of Slaton & Adibi. Better then average...they are both unemployed last I checked & it seems Slaton was just a 1 hit wonder fluke. Adibi never started & carried the " injury prone" label like no other. That hardly says "better than average" IMO.

Okoye qualifies as a bust, IMO, because he was a Top 10 pick who has been cut by 2 teams(1 team cut him twice) if I recall correctly & never really produced like a top 10 pick. If I recall correctly, he too is unemployed. Once again, I believe you are being a bit generous in your assessments of some players.

Whatever your assessments are, it's fine with me.

We've discussed about this before on this board.

An example I brought up was the Patriots, a team that a lot of people here seem to think as a model.

The only two guys remaining from those 2 years are Jerod Mayo, and a nobody named Matt Slater.

Does Matt Slater qualify to be anything to you?

[tru80texan]

Originally Posted by srrono

I am afraid that if the Texans did change the Coach and GM we could go straight to the bottom again. I mean really how many guys out there are 100% locks to be good at their job. Plain and simple an Elite QB takes you a long way in this league, but If you do not have an Elite QB then the team has to be very good at every other position.

I think that is myth. With the recent success of the 49ers, Colts, Redskins, & even the Seahawks, teams can be successful quickly. These were teams thought to be in complete rebuilding mode & are playoff teams a year or 2 later. The Texans seem to have a lot of the pieces in place, but can't get over the hump. A new GM or HC would be a fool to change out all of the players here. I believe it would simply be a philosophy change in the FO & how it is coached, not a complete overhaul by any means.

[76Texan]

The rest of their guys (the Pats) are either out of the league or barely plays (Meriweather, a first round pick).

The Texans had one still very active on another team (Jacoby) and one who had seen quite a bit of time with the Bears (Okoye).

Overall, both team still have the same number of draftees remained from those 2 years still on some team this year (5), but the guys from the Texans had been more active (playing).

And this is not even counting the two 2nd round picks traded for Schaub.

[powda]

He attacks needs with 1 incumbent, 1 mid tier free agent, and 1 mid round draft pick. Thats all you need to know.

[tru80texan]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

The rest of their guys (the Pats) are either out of the league or barely plays (Meriweather, a first round pick).

The Texans had one still very active on another team (Jacoby) and one who had seen quite a bit of time with the Bears (Okoye).

Overall, both team still have the same number of draftees remained from those 2 years still on some team this year (5), but the guys from the Texans had been more active (playing).

And this is not even counting the two 2nd round picks traded for Schaub.

I think you are comparing apples in oranges in hopes that you can prove the Texans are similar to the Pats drafting performance, but that is completely false IMO. The Texans had a pick in every round except the 2nd round in both years. That cannot be said for the Pats in 2007. They didn't have a 2nd or a 3rd & had numerous picks in the 6th & 7th rounds. That's hardly equal footing to make a comparison as we all know the talent falls in the later rounds. Despite having a bunch of 6th & 7th round picks they still managed to equal the same amount active or productive players that the Texans did w/ varying round picks. That does not necessarily help your case. IMO it hurts it, but that could just be me. Let me give you a bunch of late round picks & I get the normal assortment & let's guess who will be the odds on favorite in producing quality players.

Okoye only produced 1 year, 2011, for the Bears & was let go. He was then cut by the Bucs & Bears this season. Thats a 1 hit wonder very similar to Slaton. Hardly worth noting, but if it works for you...so be it. I politely agree to disagree.


*2008
1.10 LB *Jerod Mayo *Tennessee *from NO
2.31 DB *Terrence Wheatley *Colorado **
3.15 LB *Shawn Crable *Michigan *from NO
3.31 QB *Kevin O'Connell *San Diego State **
4.30 DB *Jonathan Wilhite *Auburn **
5.18 WR *Matt Slater *UCLA *from TB
6.31 LB *Bo Ruud *Nebraska **
*2007
1.24 DB *Brandon Meriweather *Miami *from SEA
4.28 DL *Kareem Brown *Miami **
5.34 OL *Clint Oldenburg *Colorado State *compensatory pick
6.06 LB *Justin Rogers *Southern Methodist *from ARI
6.28 DB *Mike Richardson *Notre Dame **
6.34 RB *Justise Hairston *Central Connecticut *compensatory pick
6.35 OL *Corey Hilliard *Oklahoma State *compensatory pick
7.01 LB *Oscar Lua *Southern California *from OAK
7.37 OL *Mike Elgin *Iowa *compensatory pick

[amazing80]

Thats some good info, but without comparing to other gms its useless

[b0ng]

Originally Posted by tru80texan

Outside of Joseph, Manning, & Smith( although some may say they overpaid for Smith) most of their other FA signings have not panned out. Reeves, Ahman Green, & the trade for Philip Buchanon are just a few of the questionable moves. As I said earlier, those could be growing pains, but the premature resigning of Schaub, Walter, & Jacoby have been their questionable moves of late. Walter was forced to take a pay cut in the 2nd year of his latest contract or he could've easily been released similar to jacoby who requested his release 1 yr after he was signed to a new contract. Schaubs play of late have many questioning whether or not the Texans should've waited before resigning him.

You are right the Texans do have a lot of young talent, but it remains to be seen if he can retain them as many of them are playing under their rookie contracts & are not an issue just yet. The fun begins starting this season as Quin & Barwin are due up & it seems 1 of them will possibly be lost. Time will tell & let's see if Smith can earn his money.

Buchanon was not Rick Smith, and you'll have to cite Jacoby requesting his release rather than just being outright cut because that is not how I remember it going down. And as much as you want to hand-wave away Watt and Brown's selections, you'll ignore Mike Sherman convincing people that Green was worth a contract. So which is it that Rick Smith is responsible for, just the moves you don't like?

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by tru80texan

I think you are comparing apples in oranges in hopes that you can prove the Texans are similar to the Pats drafting performance, but that is completely false IMO. The Texans had a pick in every round except the 2nd round in both years. That cannot be said for the Pats in 2007. They didn't have a 2nd or a 3rd & had numerous picks in the 6th & 7th rounds. That's hardly equal footing to make a comparison as we all know the talent falls in the later rounds. Despite having a bunch of 6th & 7th round picks they still managed to equal the same amount active or productive players that the Texans did w/ varying round picks. That does not necessarily help your case. IMO it hurts it, but that could just be me. Let me give you a bunch of late round picks & I get the normal assortment & let's guess who will be the odds on favorite in producing quality players.

Okoye only produced 1 year, 2011, for the Bears & was let go. He was then cut by the Bucs & Bears this season. Thats a 1 hit wonder very similar to Slaton. Hardly worth noting, but if it works for you...so be it. I politely agree to disagree.


*2008
1.10 LB *Jerod Mayo *Tennessee *from NO
2.31 DB *Terrence Wheatley *Colorado **
3.15 LB *Shawn Crable *Michigan *from NO
3.31 QB *Kevin O'Connell *San Diego State **
4.30 DB *Jonathan Wilhite *Auburn **
5.18 WR *Matt Slater *UCLA *from TB
6.31 LB *Bo Ruud *Nebraska **
*2007
1.24 DB *Brandon Meriweather *Miami *from SEA
4.28 DL *Kareem Brown *Miami **
5.34 OL *Clint Oldenburg *Colorado State *compensatory pick
6.06 LB *Justin Rogers *Southern Methodist *from ARI
6.28 DB *Mike Richardson *Notre Dame **
6.34 RB *Justise Hairston *Central Connecticut *compensatory pick
6.35 OL *Corey Hilliard *Oklahoma State *compensatory pick
7.01 LB *Oscar Lua *Southern California *from OAK
7.37 OL *Mike Elgin *Iowa *compensatory pick

Let's count the picks.
Both teams had one first and one fourth - same.
We had 3 thirds; they had 1 second and 2 thirds.

Should be their advantage, correct?

We had 1 more fifth, but they had a bunch more sixth and seventh.
Basically, their 3 sixth should trump our 1 fifth.

Should be another advantage to them, correct?

[steelbtexan]

Originally Posted by tru80texan

Hmmmmm...that's an interesting thought. Here's the list of players from 2007 & 2008. Please tell me what players outside of Brown & Jacoby Jones, yeah the guy we ran out of town, have turned into quality NFL players contributing on another team. I don't see anything but busts, journeymen, or players who are unemployed but still hanging on to the dream w/ an occasional tryout. I think you might be giving credit where credit isn't do.

2007 NFL Draft
Round/Pick Player Position College
1/10 (from Atlanta) Amobi Okoye Defensive tackle Louisville
3/73 Jacoby Jones Wide receiver Lane
4/123 (from New Orleans) Fred Bennett Cornerback South Carolina
5/144 Brandon Harrison Safety Stanford
5/163 (from New Orleans) Brandon Frye Offensive tackle Virginia Tech
6/183 Kasey Studdard Offensive guard Texas
7/218 Zac Diles Linebacker Kansas State

2008 NFL Draft
Round/Pick Player Position College
1/26 (from Baltimore) Duane Brown Offensive tackle Virginia Tech
3/79 Antwaun Molden Cornerback Eastern Kentucky
3/89 (from Baltimore) Steve Slaton Running back West Virginia
4/118 Xavier Adibi Linebacker Virginia Tech
5/151 Frank Okam Defensive tackle Texas
6/173 (from Baltimore) Dominique Barber Safety Minnesota
7/223 Alex Brink Quarterback Washington State

A very sad list and condeming on the part of Rick and Gary.

For all of the supposed talent on this roster, there appear to be holes at WR/OT/OG/QB and LB/S/CB/NT on defense and the ST's are a mess.

Gary/Wade better do a good job of telling Rick who to pick in this yrs draft. Rick is nothing more than a figurehead. Although his staff does a pretty good job of picking up street FA's. I expect Sonny Harris to be a big contributor to next yrs team

[steelbtexan]

Originally Posted by srrono

I am afraid that if the Texans did change the Coach and GM we could go straight to the bottom again. I mean really how many guys out there are 100% locks to be good at their job. Plain and simple an Elite QB takes you a long way in this league, but If you do not have an Elite QB then the team has to be very good at every other position.

BoB is banking on his fanbase having that fear. Fact is there are plenty of teams that have rebuilt better and quicker than the Texans since Gary has been here.

The Texans run the risk of being the early 80's Pats, Warren Moons Oilers and Phillip Rivers Chargers. All good teams, but not good enough, it's like treading water. But it's all good if they become a 10-12 reuglar season team and a soft early exit playoff team as long as fans keep the turnsisles turning and the beer flowing at Reliant.

PS, this is not about firing Gary, I think he did a great coaching job this yr. Considering the obvious lack of talent on the offensive side of the ball. That needs to be fixed in this yrs draft/FA.

Agree with you about the QB.

[Jules Winnfield]

he's been average at best.

scary he wanted to sign barwin to an extension much like schaub before seeing them play this season only to be saved by barwin's greed.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by tru80texan

http://www.stateofthetexans.com/?p=9964

Here is a little breakdown on Rick Smith's drafting tendencies by conference & state as well as how his drafts have panned out over the years.

Personally I'm not too impressed considering there is only 1 player left on the team out of 14 drafted in 2007 & 2008. Guess we can chalk that up to growing pains, but there are a few other areas of concern, IMO, such as there have only been 9 starters produced from the last 4 drafts & 2(possibly 3) could be lost after this offseason. That a spotty track record IMO. Thoughts...

I'd like to know how players that were drafted under Smith but went on to play for other teams were considered? Trindon Holliday & Jacoby Jones come to mind. If players are still in NFL even if on another team indicates the pick may have been good. Another thing, SMith drafts not coaches them. Would be interesting to also point out the draftees who no longer are with Texans that left due to injuries such as Barber, Slaton, etc. That would also have major impact. Another would be how many 6th & 7th rounders were let go which have a very small percentage of making a team anyway. For every Derek Newton starting seventh, how many last more than one season, if that?

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by badboy

I'd like to know how players that were drafted under Smith but went on to play for other teams were considered? Trindon Holliday & Jacoby Jones come to mind. If players are still in NFL even if on another team indicates the pick may have been good. Another thing, SMith drafts not coaches them. Would be interesting to also point out the draftees who no longer are with Texans that left due to injuries such as Barber, Slaton, etc. That would also have major impact. Another would be how many 6th & 7th rounders were let go which have a very small percentage of making a team anyway. For every Derek Newton starting seventh, how many last more than one season, if that?

And you have to count the UDFAs in those years, too.

That would add Mike Brisiel, Rashad Butler, and Nading to the list.

Schaub may be the piñata around here, but the cost of two second rounders should also be included.

[tru80texan]

Originally Posted by b0ng

Buchanon was not Rick Smith, and you'll have to cite Jacoby requesting his release rather than just being outright cut because that is not how I remember it going down. And as much as you want to hand-wave away Watt and Brown's selections, you'll ignore Mike Sherman convincing people that Green was worth a contract. So which is it that Rick Smith is responsible for, just the moves you don't like?

http://blog.chron.com/ultimatetexans...-jacoby-jones/

Hopefully this will suffice concerning Jones. Says it in the 1st line, Jones' agent REQUESTED a release after a trade couldn't be worked. I stand corrected on Buchanon. I remember Kubiak was the one who released him so I lost track of my years & assumed Smith acquired him. Forgive me, we all make mistakes. I think you can relate considering your take on the jacoby release.

Just for the record I never took the Brown selection away from Smith. That was another poster. I do give the Watt selection to Wade because kubiak & Smith admitted Wade had helped immensely in narrowing down the list of players. They, kubiak & smith, gave Wade credit after the draft, not me. Smith gets credit for the good & bad moves. Problem is there seems to be more bad then there are good at this time. Just saying...

[tru80texan]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

And you have to count the UDFAs in those years, too.

That would add Mike Brisiel, Rashad Butler, and Nading to the list.

Schaub may be the piñata around here, but the cost of two second rounders should also be included.

Just for the record, Rashad Butler was not a UDFA for the Texans. He was a 3rd round selection for the Panthers in 06 & was cut by them in 07. That's when he was signed by the Texans.

As far as your draft pick round evaluations, we will have to agree to disagree. I'm not a quantity over quality type of guy & that's exactly what that is when you suggest 3 6th rounders equates to a 5th rounder. So we will leave it at that. We can just refer to the production level of the 2 teams & it kinda gives away which team is doing a slightly better job.

[silentassassin]

Originally Posted by ckhouston

Would have rather extend Barwin than Schaub ...

Any particular reason? (Besides the amount of vitriol Schaub has taken in recent weeks.)

I seem to remember you starting a thread criticizing the concept of using DEs at OLB, which is inherent within the scheme.

Note: Just a genuine question. Not trying to be confrontational.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by tru80texan

Just for the record, Rashad Butler was not a UDFA for the Texans. He was a 3rd round selection for the Panthers in 06 & was cut by them in 07. That's when he was signed by the Texans.

As far as your draft pick round evaluations, we will have to agree to disagree. I'm not a quantity over quality type of guy & that's exactly what that is when you suggest 3 6th rounders equates to a 5th rounder. So we will leave it at that. We can just refer to the production level of the 2 teams & it kinda gives away which team is doing a slightly better job.

OK, so let's correct that Butler was a FA off the scrap heap.
Wasn't that a good find by the scouting department and Rick Smith?

Now concerning the 5th and 6th rounders, ProFootball Reference. Com
has a neat feature where you can query about all the drafts.

Of those two years, there are 28 sixth rounders still remain in the NFL in 2012.
There are 6 more fifth rounders (34 total).

3 sixth rounders definitely give you a better percentage of finding a contributor.
Based on those figures, 3 sixth rounders are actually better than 2 fifth rounders.

There was an article that we circulated around here a few years back.
It recorded the success percentage of players drafted in each round.

So yeah, it's not the first time we ever discussed this matter.

[tru80texan]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

OK, so let's correct that Butler was a FA off the scrap heap.
Wasn't that a good find by the scouting department and Rick Smith?

Now concerning the 5th and 6th rounders, ProFootball Reference. Com
has a neat feature where you can query about all the drafts.

Of those two years, there are 28 sixth rounders still remain in the NFL in 2012.
There are 6 more fifth rounders (34 total).

3 sixth rounders definitely give you a better percentage of finding a contributor.
Based on those figures, 3 sixth rounders are actually better than 2 fifth rounders.

There was an article that we circulated around here a few years back.
It recorded the success percentage of players drafted in each round.

So yeah, it's not the first time we ever discussed this matter.

Butler was initially a good find. Not so much the last few yrs. The "injury prone" label has been bestowed upon him & its highly unlikely he returns. For being a former 3rd rounder most would say he didn't live up to expectations similar to Caldwell, but at least he wasn't Smith's 3rd rounder & he was serviceable when Brown was suspended.

Once again, I will politely agree to disagree concerning your round selection evaluations. I'm sure its a neat little feature & all, but in the end it clearly shows more 5th rounders making it compared to 6th rounders. Which makes sense because as I stated earlier & as your little feature showed the talent level falls a bit as each round goes by & thus more 5th rounders are on rosters compared to 6th rounders. I'm not sure if that little tid bit of info helped your case much, but it was worth a try.

Just guessing, using my little feature of "common sense", that if a trade is being worked out between 2 GM's that an offer of 2 5th round picks vs an offer of 3 6th round picks...I'm pretty sure the 2 5th rounders would win out more times then not. Once again, it goes back to quality over quantity. The GM's that pick 6th round picks over 5th round picks is probably the ones that would also pick a punter in the 3rd round & we all know the eventual fate of types.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by tru80texan

Butler was initially a good find. Not so much the last few yrs. The "injury prone" label has been bestowed upon him & its highly unlikely he returns. For being a former 3rd rounder most would say he didn't live up to expectations similar to Caldwell, but at least he wasn't Smith's 3rd rounder & he was serviceable when Brown was suspended.

Once again, I will politely agree to disagree concerning your round selection evaluations. I'm sure its a neat little feature & all, but in the end it clearly shows more 5th rounders making it compared to 6th rounders. Which makes sense because as I stated earlier & as your little feature showed the talent level falls a bit as each round goes by & thus more 5th rounders are on rosters compared to 6th rounders. I'm not sure if that little tid bit of info helped your case much, but it was worth a try.

Just guessing, using my little feature of "common sense", that if a trade is being worked out between 2 GM's that an offer of 2 5th round picks vs an offer of 3 6th round picks...I'm pretty sure the 2 5th rounders would win out more times then not. Once again, it goes back to quality over quantity. The GM's that pick 6th round picks over 5th round picks is probably the ones that would also pick a punter in the 3rd round & we all know the eventual fate of types.

You have the right to form your own opinion, all I'm stating is facts.
The study showed that the success rate between a 5th and a 6th are pretty close, close enough to at least equate 3 sixths with 2 fifths, let one 1.

Heck, Brady by himself (and he doesn't count extra) as a sixth is better than ... I don't know how many fifths.