Dutch's 2013 Texans Offseason Projections and Info

[ObsiWan]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

Corrosion asked me to make a thread about the Texans 2013 offseason, because the info is good for making mock drafts. So I thought I could put together a little something to help you all out when making mocks and have an easy reference for FAQs like compensatory picks, UFAs/RFAs, and some cap space guesses (yes that's what they all are).

I made an Excel spreadsheet for this and took some screenshots to make it easy to read and display. The forum software doesn't do well with Excel copy/paste data, so if changes need to be made, it might be later on in the thread. Anyways, feel free to poke holes in my arguments or offer feedback on whatever. I'm putting it in this forum specifically for Mock Draft help.

Texans 2013 Free Agents:


We have 21 total UFAs, 13 on defense, 6 on offense, and 2 special teams. As you can see, we have several starters that are not under contract next year. By my own estimations, I would list 7 of these 21 as key contributors to this season: Quin S, Barwin OLB, Dobbins ILB, McCain CB, Cody DT, Caldwell OG, Casey TE (5 defense, 2 offense). When constructing mock drafts, I think it's important to see where we are losing depth, and its clear that the defense will be losing quite a bit if these players aren't retained. Before anyone says it, I don't consider either kicker to be a key contributor because they are easily replaced.

I included their salary and cap hits for this year to show how much they cost this year, but at the moment I don't have an exact estimate of capspace for next year. At this point, I think we will have 8-10 million free after the new Brown and Schaub contracts, but I feel that is slightly optomistic. JJo also restructured this year and pushed 1.3 million into each of the next three years. I think 8 million is a solid cap space projection, assuming nothing else changes. Remember though, about 3-5 million of that will need to be retained for signing draft picks, depending on how many high picks we have. (trade ups cost more than just the draft picks and players used, you guarantee a lot more money to high picks)

Cap Casualties:

So given that we will likely be up against the cap once again, I have identified the most likely candidates to be cut or restructured. Here are the costs and savings for each.



The Guaranteed Pay for each of them is signing bonuses plus restructured money. Antonio's number is a bit higher than other sites may show because he restructured in 2011 to help us sign JJo and Manning. Wade doesn't have much left on his deal, but cutting him actually saves more money than Antonio. As far as I know, none of Walter's money is guaranteed, if anyone knows otherwise please post it.

Clearly something has to be done about Walter and Antonio. Antonio is not worth 9.8 million nor the 8.5 million that he was originally scheduled to make. Walter isn't worth 4.5 million and should take another paycut or head to Baltimore. The bottom line is that we could save 13.5 million by simply cutting these guys. That could make our cap space go up to about 20 million, which would enable us to sign retain our own free agents and possibly sign a new impact player or two.

Compensatory Picks:

In addition to the 7 picks that the Texans have in the 2013 draft, they will have 4 more compensatory picks coming their way. The Texans lost 4 qualifying free agents and signed zero. Yes, zero qualifying free agents signed.

Here is a listing of our guys, my projection for them, and some comparable comp picks that I was able to identify.



Mario is most definitely going to give us a 3rd in return. He has 10 sacks on the year and a huge contract. I couldn't find any TEs that were a good match for Dreessen, but given his salary and game time, I think a 5th is in order. Briesel is a guard who started all 13 games so far, but guards don't seem to garner high picks. I'm sure he's worth a 5th based on salary alone, but I doubt he results in a 4th. Jason Allen has barely played for the Bengals, so I doubt we get more than a 7th for him, but it's better than nothing.

Edit: Compensatory Pick Requirements:



Practice Squad 2012:

Another way to backfill depth is to call up practice squad players. Several of these guys have been with the team for a while and may be ready to step up to the 53 man roster. Currently we have these guys:


I think Pleasant may take Demps spot on the roster next year. I would love to see one of the TEs develop into a solid blocker and save us a late round draft pick. If Mondek could develop more, maybe he could become our swing tackle and we could let Newton stay at RT. Lots of options to consider.

Superb post. Excellent data presentation.

Even *I* can understand our salary cap picture with this info.
How can I pin this sucker so I can refer back to it when needed???

[Corrosion]

Can we get a stickey on this thread please ?!!!??

[Corrosion]

Thanks for the stickey!

[welsh texan]

Great read, can't help but wonder if some of that spare money will have to go on resigning Cush, and they'll surely already be looking ahead to how the hell they can keep hold of Watt as well.

Agree on the Antonio Smith stuff too. Dude is a really good cog but its a high price to pay for him and he's getting to an age where putting money in his hand now will mean more than the chance of a little more in the future. Lock him up for 2 extra years and convert to bonus, resign Cush, and work with what you have left.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by welsh texan

Great read, can't help but wonder if some of that spare money will have to go on resigning Cush, and they'll surely already be looking ahead to how the hell they can keep hold of Watt as well.

Agree on the Antonio Smith stuff too. Dude is a really good cog but its a high price to pay for him and he's getting to an age where putting money in his hand now will mean more than the chance of a little more in the future. Lock him up for 2 extra years and convert to bonus, resign Cush, and work with what you have left.

To supply money to extend Cushing in 2014 as we did with Brown and Foster, we could bonus them out in 2014. We could also bonus out Johnathan Joseph so we should also be all right with players coming up in 2015 like Watt, Derek Newton and Kareem Jackson. Chris Myers in 2014 $5 m could Ben Jones replace him then? And let's not forget the guy we all love to hate Matt Schaub $10 m in 2014 could be bonused.

O D will be 32 in 2014 $4.4m?

Danieal Manning 32 in 2014 $4.5m?

I think we should have no problem keeping the stars we want if they are willing to work with Texans. Next two off season will be very interesting.

[aussie_texan]

Originally Posted by badboy

To supply money to extend Cushing in 2014 as we did with Brown and Foster, we could bonus them out in 2014. We could also bonus out Johnathan Joseph so we should also be all right with players coming up in 2015 like Watt, Derek Newton and Kareem Jackson. Chris Myers in 2014 $5 m could Ben Jones replace him then? And let's not forget the guy we all love to hate Matt Schaub $10 m in 2014 could be bonused.

O D will be 32 in 2014 $4.4m?

Danieal Manning 32 in 2014 $4.5m?

I think we should have no problem keeping the stars we want if they are willing to work with Texans. Next two off season will be very interesting.

i know next year the cap isnt going to move much but maybe by 2015 it should see a large upward swing? yes

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by aussie_texan

i know next year the cap isnt going to move much but maybe by 2015 it should see a large upward swing? yes

Unfortunately, from what John Clayton reported, the cap will most likely remain flat through 2015.

It was supposed to be lower the first few years of the new CBA, but they struck some kind of deal; the result is a cap that hardly makes an upward move for at least a few more years.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by welsh texan

Great read, can't help but wonder if some of that spare money will have to go on resigning Cush, and they'll surely already be looking ahead to how the hell they can keep hold of Watt as well.

Agree on the Antonio Smith stuff too. Dude is a really good cog but its a high price to pay for him and he's getting to an age where putting money in his hand now will mean more than the chance of a little more in the future. Lock him up for 2 extra years and convert to bonus, resign Cush, and work with what you have left.

I think Shaun Cody will be gone, too.
That is unless he takes a paycut.

[mussop]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

I think Shaun Cody will be gone, too.
That is unless he takes a paycut.

I don't see us even making him an offer. His play is below average and he seems to be breaking down with age.

[srrono]

My thoughts on 2013 Compensatory Draft Picks for HOU. Am I forgetting anyone?

Texans lost DE Mario Williams and will receive 3rd round pick.
Texans lost G Mike Brisiel and will receive a 5th round pick.
Texans lost CB Jason Allen and will receive a 6th round pick.
Texans lost TE Joel Dreessen and will receive a 6th round pick.


Texans lost FB Lawrence Vickers who is canceled out by signing of P Donnie Jones.

[amazing80]

Originally Posted by srrono

My thoughts on 2013 Compensatory Draft Picks for Houston. Am I forgetting anyone?

The Houston Texans lost Mario Williams and will receive 3rd round pick.
The Houston Texans lost Mike Brisiel and will receive a 5th round pick.
The Houston Texans lost Jason Allen and will receive a 6th round pick.
The Houston Texans lost Joel Dreessen and will receive a 6th round pick.


The Houston Texans lost Lawrence Vickers who is canceled out by Donnie Jones.

its rumored we get a 3rd and 3 6ths

[RT22]

I think it will be more like...
3rd - Williams
5th - Dressen
6th - Briesel

[amazing80]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

Unfortunately, from what John Clayton reported, the cap will most likely remain flat through 2015.

It was supposed to be lower the first few years of the new CBA, but they struck some kind of deal; the result is a cap that hardly makes an upward move for at least a few more years.

From what I remember, it was going to increase a few percent each season or something, not just balloon in one year or 2 years

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by amazing80

From what I remember, it was going to increase a few percent each season or something, not just balloon in one year or 2 years

Unfortunately , it's more like a drop in the ocean, at least for this upcoming year.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by srrono

My thoughts on 2013 Compensatory Draft Picks for HOU. Am I forgetting anyone?

Texans lost DE Mario Williams and will receive 3rd round pick.
Texans lost G Mike Brisiel and will receive a 5th round pick.
Texans lost CB Jason Allen and will receive a 6th round pick.
Texans lost TE Joel Dreessen and will receive a 6th round pick.


Texans lost FB Lawrence Vickers who is canceled out by signing of P Donnie Jones.

More accurate to say Texans mayreceive...

I could see Dreesen bringing at least a fifth.

[Dutchrudder]

Well, I have been looking into comp picks a bit more since the topic came up again. I have to amend my initial projection to a 3,5,6,6. Here's where I'm at:




Mario is a lock for a 3rd.

I believe Brisiel will be worth a 5th due to his 16 starts, 4 million a year AAV (Contract's Average Annual Value) and because he played the majority of the Raiders snaps this year.

I'm dropping Dreesen down to a 6th because his contract value is too low, and the Broncos didn't go as far in the playoffs as I thought they would. He had average TE stats (41 rec, 356 yards, 5 TDs), and played about 75% of their snaps. Had the Broncos made the AFCC or Super Bowl, I believe he would have moved up a round.

I'm putting Jason Allen as a 6th, but he's a wild card. His contract would normally be worth a 5th on AAV alone, but his snaps played is so low, that I think he will be dinged a round or two. I originally put him as a 7th because he started zero games, and only played defense for 3 snaps, the rest was special teams. I don't know how this will work out, he could be anywhere from a 5th to a 7th, but I'll take the conservative route and say 6th.

I found some info on compensatory picks last year with AAV ranges for the picks and this was the matrix for 2012. These ranges can change, but we could have anywhere from a 3, 5,5,6 to a 3,6,7,7.

3 - $6.5/$7 million and greater
4 - $5 to $6.5/$7 million
5 - $4 to $5 million
6 - $2.5/2.75 to $4 million
7 - $1 to $2.5/2.75 million

[Dutchrudder]

Originally Posted by srrono

My thoughts on 2013 Compensatory Draft Picks for HOU. Am I forgetting anyone?

Texans lost DE Mario Williams and will receive 3rd round pick.
Texans lost G Mike Brisiel and will receive a 5th round pick.
Texans lost CB Jason Allen and will receive a 6th round pick.
Texans lost TE Joel Dreessen and will receive a 6th round pick.


Texans lost FB Lawrence Vickers who is canceled out by signing of P Donnie Jones.

Where did you get this info? Vickers was cut, and will not affect comp picks. Donnie jones was a minimum deal, and won't affect comp picks.

[76Texan]

I need some confirmation.
As I understand it, each FA we signed cancels out one that we lost.

Lost:
Mario
Allen
Brisiel
Dreessen

Signed:
James
Donnie Jones.

It looks to me like we will only get two comp pick:
A third for Mario and a sixth for Allen (due to the value of the contract they signed with the new teams.)

Did I miss something ?

[skenney_11]

I think the caliber of the FA determines if the compensatory pick gets canceled out. So for instance, I lbelieve Jones and James did not affect how many compensatory picks the Texans are awarded.

[TheIronDuke]

We signed more than those 2. Off the top of my head we signed Shayne Graham, Ball, Forsett, Harris and I'm sure I'm missing others. But I don't think players who get signed for insignificant money count against teams. Dutch projected an additional 3rd, 4th and 6th IIRC.