Schaub + Receivers vs Other QBs and their Receivers

[Texanmike02]

OK. There are a bunch of complaints about Schaub, some of them are legitimate others are just nit picking. He isn't mobile, we know that. He might not have the best arm in the league, we know that too but I don't think there is anyone here that can deny that he has demonstrated in the past that he is capable of being a top 10 QB in this league. So what is the difference?

I went back and rewatched our game. Painful. But I was specifically looking for something. I'm submitting the idea that we ask Schaub to fit throws into too tight of a window too often. Go back and look at his completions. If you have access to the tape go look at third downs. Repeatedly we don't have good separation. Schaub is having to fit the ball into tight windows over and over. Then go look at Brady. 3rd and 5? He is throwing the ball to a receiver that doesn't have anyone within 10 feet of him. Does Brady make the small window throws? Sure he does. He made 4 that I saw. He also missed a few. Sometimes the receiver makes a great catch and sometimes the throw is perfect but we ask Schaub to make that kind of throw 20 times a game. Go watch his incompletions. Other than one throw to AJ (endzone 2nd pass of the game), one to Walter and one to Graham I didn't see him miss a lot of throws. (There was the WR screen on the left side but that play was just busted. That isn't a read that is just a matter of hike and throw.) Outside of those throws I saw a total of 4 throws that were to an open receiver. We all talk about NFL open vs College open but it sure looked like Brady was throwing to a College open receiver the majority of the time. Schaub threw the ball 51 times. I rewatched every throw. Of those 51 throws a full 19 of them were covered throws. I'm talking blanketed. Did he make the wrong read? Maybe. I don't have the all22 film available to go look but our receivers don't get separation.

Think about how you have to try to defend NE, GB, NYG, NO or ATL. NE has Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Gronk, and Hernandez. Sure AJ is better than any one of them individually but combined nobody has the DBs to dover them. GB is more of the same.

Our receivers just flat out don't get open. Not at the rate that other teams do. Other elite teams have 3 or 4 receivers that are better than most nickel/dime db's, we have one. You can't tell me that between the throw to Daniels and the TD to Posey that Schaub isn't making elite throws, he is just being asked to make elite throws too often.

Mike

[TexanSam]

I agree. We have Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, and a couple of average tight ends. After that it's basically a pile of turd. I hope Posey or Martin can step up but combined they had 16 catches this year. That's pathetic.

[Playoffs]

I agree that our WRs, those we trust to catch & hold the ball, lack separation ability. I thought Schaub had some pretty impressive small window throws early on.

[WolverineFan]

Johnson is the only guy we have that can get separation. He's lost some speed but still runs great routes to create room. Same with Daniels. He's never been the fastest guy but runs great routes to get open. Problem is, because they lack the ability to separate, good coverage accounts for them.

Our faster guys (Posey and Martin) aren't as developed in their craft yet and rely on their speed. Problem is this is the NFL and the other guys are fast too. I think Martin was criminally underused this year btw because he did get open. He's further ahead in his development than Posey or Jean at this point.

[Surreal McCoy]

Aside from AJ, the only time our receivers get open is when they're schemed open. Those long passes to KW early in the season sure seemed to dry up quickly!

[Dutchrudder]

Wait wait wait wait... You think we should value speed and ability to get separation over run blocking on the outside? HERESY!!!

[WolverineFan]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

Wait wait wait wait... You think we should value speed and ability to get separation over run blocking on the outside? HERESY!!!

Well the run blocking is important because, let's be honest, we are a run first team. When he's gone we are going to miss Kevin Walter because of that. When we throw the ball though we won't be missing him too much because he's limited. It's a trade off. It's rare to find a guy like AJ who excels in both.

[2012Champs]

When we were a pass first team it wasnt our offense that kept us from winning most of the time it was the D

[Rey]

I disagree with everyone in this thread. In fact it's an awfully silly notion to think receivers are going to get some kind of great separation more often than not. This is the NFL.

If a team has wr's who are open all the time they'd be unstoppable. If you're running a route you might get separation on your corner but there might be another player sliding over the top or in front. Qb's need to expect to have to make tight throws on a regular basis. It's the NFL. This isn't college. In the NFL sometimes you gotta throw guys open. You have to put balls in spots where your guys have the best shot at it.

Schaub does this sometimes, but not often enough. I font know if that's on him or on kubiak, because we we are trailing teams and go into chuck mode he makes those throws more often.

The two point conversion to Aj was a good example. He extended the play Talib was all over Aj. Schaub threw it in a good spot where Aj had the best shot at it and he made the play.

Why don't we do that more often? Why don't we take advantage of mismatches? Why don't we take advantage of guys strengths?

Why don't we use Walter in the slot as a hands guy more often? Let him bang against lb's...catch short passes by using his size to box out defenders? Posey and Lestar would be much better as outside wr's.

Yeah Casey had one drop. But the guy has good hands mostly and he's a mismatch nightmare for some lb's. Ditto arian.

Welker was a nobody until he went to the pats. And he still drops a bunch of passes. All these rb's Brady throws to, are they better than Arian?


Also, there have been plenty times where schaub has forced balls when guys have been open for better looks.

Lots of qb's have to extend plays to give wr's more time. Lots of qb's don't find wr's running wide open and throw balls away, run for yards and take sacks.

If we need receiving targets that are getting wide open all the time then we could stick anybody back there at qb. How hard is it to throw to a bunch of wide open receivers all the time?

How about giving Matt more freedom to attack mismatches and change tempo and Matt just making more plays?

[eriadoc]

I find it curious that some teams with other QBs always manage to have good #2 and #3 WRs. Do they just hit the jackpot with every guy they draft? These teams almost always have a clear #1 guy, but then they have guys in line that look good in their role.

Hell, a rookie in Indy made TY Hilton look awesome this year. The two TEs for Indy looked awesome. We already knew that Reggie Wayne is. Eli Manning seems to have a revolving door of good backup WRs. Brady is Brady, of course, but he makes guys look great in any given game. Drew Brees has a cast of WRs that all look better than anything the Texans have. Manning has three WRs that look better than anything the Texans have, and it's only since he got there. Stokley hasn't done jack since the last time he had Manning throwing to him and now he looks like a perfect slot receiver, even at his age. Even teams that don't have one WR that takes most of the catches spread the ball around.

I'm not putting it all on Schaub, but I'm looking at him sideways, that's for sure.

[Rey]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

Wait wait wait wait... You think we should value speed and ability to get separation over run blocking on the outside? HERESY!!!

That too...

Seems like a lot of the same people using this as an excuse for schaub are the sane folks who stood up for kw...

Would need to do a cross reference.

[Texanmike02]

Originally Posted by Rey

I disagree with everyone in this thread. In fact it's an awfully silly notion to think receivers are going to get some kind of great separation more often than not. This is the NFL.

If a team has wr's who are open all the time they'd be unstoppable. If you're running a route you might get separation on your corner but there might be another player sliding over the top or in front. Qb's need to expect to have to make tight throws on a regular basis. It's the NFL. This isn't college. In the NFL sometimes you gotta throw guys open. You have to put balls in spots where your guys have the best shot at it.

Schaub does this sometimes, but not often enough. I font know if that's on him or on kubiak, because we we are trailing teams and go into chuck mode he makes those throws more often.

The two point conversion to Aj was a good example. He extended the play Talib was all over Aj. Schaub threw it in a good spot where Aj had the best shot at it and he made the play.

Why don't we do that more often? Why don't we take advantage of mismatches? Why don't we take advantage of guys strengths?

Why don't we use Walter in the slot as a hands guy more often? Let him bang against lb's...catch short passes by using his size to box out defenders? Posey and Lestar would be much better as outside wr's.

Yeah Casey had one drop. But the guy has good hands mostly and he's a mismatch nightmare for some lb's. Ditto arian.

Welker was a nobody until he went to the pats. And he still drops a bunch of passes. All these rb's Brady throws to, are they better than Arian?


Also, there have been plenty times where schaub has forced balls when guys have been open for better looks.

Lots of qb's have to extend plays to give wr's more time. Lots of qb's don't find wr's running wide open and throw balls away, run for yards and take sacks.

If we need receiving targets that are getting wide open all the time then we could stick anybody back there at qb. How hard is it to throw to a bunch of wide open receivers all the time?

How about giving Matt more freedom to attack mismatches and change tempo and Matt just making more plays?

Go watch the throws Brady made against us on 3rd down. Several of them were WIDE open. I'm not saying you need people wide open every play but it sure seems like other teams have players running wide open a lot more often. You can go to the "we need you to throw a strike on the money" well a few times but you can't do it on 60% of your passes.

Mike

[Kaiser Toro]

We have players that are a perfect fit for the playbook, but the playbook does not evolve with the half, game, season or speed of the league.

Kubiak has us right where he wants us.

The question should be posed to Rick Smith - what is the impact to rip and replace the Kubiak system? My fear is that we have invested in a dying offense, and will continue to make roster decisions that make little impact on the overall results, but puts us in cap hell for when the change occurs.

[Rey]

Originally Posted by Texanmike02

Go watch the throws Brady made against us on 3rd down. Several of them were WIDE open. I'm not saying you need people wide open every play but it sure seems like other teams have players running wide open a lot more often. You can go to the "we need you to throw a strike on the money" well a few times but you can't do it on 60% of your passes.

Mike

Go back and look at the last pats game in the reg season and plenty other games.

The play schaub threw the pick to Mccourty Arian was wide open. Probably could have scored.

What makes you think schaub just isn't missing some guys?

And a lot of those wide open pass plays are due to Brady controlling tempo and not allowing defense time to think and settle in.

I clearly made note of that in my post and several times. When you don't give your immobile qb more freedom and give him cookie cutter reads and audibles this is what happens. When you ingrain in him to take the ultra safe route when things break down you get a guy that rolls out and has time to make a play, but throws the ball away with no one around him.

This stuff sounds eerily similar to the Carr stuff before he left. Supporters unable to separate his failings from his cohorts.

Our wr's aren't perfect. They could be upgraded sure. But they are not making schaub look bad. If anything he's the one who actually has the ability to make them look a little better.

This is a schaub and kubiak offense. Kubiak can help by adjusting and schaub can help by playing better. The wr's can be upgraded as well, but they aren't making schaub look bad.

[WolverineFan]

Originally Posted by Rey

Our wr's aren't perfect. They could be upgraded sure. But they are not making schaub look bad. If anything he's the one who actually has the ability to make them look a little better.

Completely agree. Look what Brady has done with Welker. He was a nobody in Miami and now he's a perennial All-Pro in New England. Moss had his best season ever with Brady. Deion Branch won a Super Bowl MVP with Brady and then did nothing in Seattle after leaving in FA.

It would be nice to add some more weapons for the offense but the problems start with Schaub.

[Double Barrel]

Put Brady in this offense with the exact same players and coaches and we have a team in the AFC championship game next weekend.

We have to face the reality that Schaub is not elite, or even top 10, but rather a pedestrian QB who can put up some nice regular season numbers. But he's not, and never will be, in the same breadth as Brady, Rodgers, Manning, or Brees. No amount of analysis or fairy dust kisses will change this simple fact.

BTW, I'm not anti-Schaub, but I'm also a realist and refuse to ignore his obvious shortcomings. We can win with the guy at QB if we have enough playmakers around him and a defense that can consistently bend instead of break.

[Texanmike02]

Originally Posted by Rey

Go back and look at the last pats game in the reg season and plenty other games.

The play schaub threw the pick to Mccourty Arian was wide open. Probably could have scored.

No question he has made some boneheaded throws. His int% (2.2) is not quite on par with elite QBs. Brady is 1.3, Manning 1.9, Ryan 2.4%, Rodgers 1.4% but was better than some pretty good QBs (Eli) Manning 2.9%, Dalton 3.0%.

What makes you think schaub just isn't missing some guys?

I'm going to look at that when I get a chance. TV shots do you no good, you need all 22 film. Another thing is the passing lane has to be there. Its easy for us to say "he missed this guy" but a lot of times there is no passing lane to get the ball there.

And a lot of those wide open pass plays are due to Brady controlling tempo and not allowing defense time to think and settle in.

Some of that may be the case, not denynig that but it doesn't change the fact that he is being asked to throw to receivers that are not open. If the simple answer is "get to the line and run plays quicker" that is a much easier solution than "find a QB that is better than Schaub".

I clearly made note of that in my post and several times. When you don't give your immobile qb more freedom and give him cookie cutter reads and audibles this is what happens. When you ingrain in him to take the ultra safe route when things break down you get a guy that rolls out and has time to make a play, but throws the ball away with no one around him.

I wonder how many QBs don't have cookie cutter reads. Its easy for us to say "when the play breaks down" but we have no idea what the progression of reads are. "Cookie cutter reads" could also be defined as "running a play". The QB doesn't have the overhead view and ability to see what everyone is doing at once, they must look directionally. Its a wide field. You have to know what you expect to happen on the field in what order and make reads accordingly. If the safety provides help in one place then you know there should be a hole in another place on "that play".

This stuff sounds eerily similar to the Carr stuff before he left. Supporters unable to separate his failings from his cohorts.

No. This is nothing like Carr. Schaub has thrown twice as many TDs as Ints over the last four years and almost 250 ypg. Carr never did anything close to that. If you get rid of Schaub 15 teams would line up to sign him as their starting QB.

Our wr's aren't perfect. They could be upgraded sure. But they are not making schaub look bad. If anything he's the one who actually has the ability to make them look a little better.

I certainly don't think you can say that at this point. It is pretty obvious that we don't have a receiver that can get open on most teams #3 corner (other than AJ) while the top tier QBs all have 5 guys on their roster that can beat most teams #2 corner.

Mike

[Texanmike02]

duplicate post

[Texanmike02]

Originally Posted by Double Barrel

Put Brady in this offense with the exact same players and coaches and we have a team in the AFC championship game next weekend.

We have to face the reality that Schaub is not elite, or even top 10, but rather a pedestrian QB who can put up some nice regular season numbers. But he's not, and never will be, in the same breadth as Brady, Rodgers, Manning, or Brees. No amount of analysis or fairy dust kisses will change this simple fact.

BTW, I'm not anti-Schaub, but I'm also a realist and refuse to ignore his obvious shortcomings. We can win with the guy at QB if we have enough playmakers around him and a defense that can consistently bend instead of break.

I'm not saying he's in the Brady, Rodgers, Manning, Brees class. I do think he is in that next tier of QBs though. He falls between 6-10 for me. I guarantee you if we released him today at least 2/3 of the league would consider him an upgrade over their QB.

Mike

[Kaiser Toro]

Originally Posted by Texanmike02

I'm not saying he's in the Brady, Rodgers, Manning, Brees class. I do think he is in that next tier of QBs though. He falls between 6-10 for me. I guarantee you if we released him today at least 2/3 of the league would consider him an upgrade over their QB.

Mike

2/3 of the league does not make the playoffs. Why wouldn't they want a starting QB from a playoff team, if priced right? Heck I would keep Schaub if his cap hit was half of what it is the next three years. We are over invested in this QB, and we are over invested in this legacy offensive game plan, IMO.