NFL Playoffs: What Seeding History Really Says About Your Team’s Chances

[srrono]

very interesting read

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com...chances/20768/

It is not talked about much, but it really does not pay to be the No. 3 seed. Only the 2006 Colts and 1987 Redskins have ever won the Super Bowl from that seed. It is difficult as you would expect to have to beat the top two seeds on the road (Colts only beat No. 2 Baltimore), which is why it was such a disaster for Houston to slip to that spot this year.


Since 1990 only one #3 seed has won a SuperBowl
XLI
#3Seed Colts 29
#1Seed Bears 17


Here's another article
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/50418693/ns/sports-nfl/

[Tailgate]

Not as relevant after the top seed went down today.

[MEGA SWATT]

Originally Posted by Tailgate

Not as relevant after the top seed went down today.

[Speedy]

The 1 seed , at least in the AFC, hasn't fared too well either. 2 SB wins since 1990 and 9 one and dones.

Though the Texans still have their work cut out for them tomorrow, it's interesting that had the Texans gone ahead and wrapped up HFA, they would have likely played the Ravens this weekend. I'm not sure they could have beaten that Ravens team out there today.


EDIT: Make that 10 one and dones now.

[Tailgate]

Would have been nice to get our "Ray Lewis" back in time like they did. Yes I know Ray>Cushing.

But our defense matches up very well wih that team, even without Cushing.

[michaelm]

Originally Posted by Tailgate

Would have been nice to get our "Ray Lewis" back in time like they did. Yes I know Ray>Cushing.

But our defense matches up very well wih that team, even without Cushing.

IMO, in 2012-13, a healthy Cushing > a healthy Ray Lewis.

[TheMatrix31]

Brian Cushing is just as important to us as Ray Lewis is to them. As far as what we do on the field anyway.

[ObsiWan]

Originally Posted by Tailgate

Not as relevant after the top seed went down today.

That second link goes into detail about how it's not all that great to be the #1 seed either.

Once upon a time the NFL’s top seed would glide through the regular season with an impressive record, gaudy team statistics, and would complete their journey with a run through the postseason to capture a Super Bowl title. From 1975 to 1996, the team with the best regular season record won 14 out of 22 Super Bowls (63.6 percent).

But that was in the past. Now the "regular season champion" is more likely to lose in their first playoff game than to get to the big game. Only one of the last 15 teams with the best record has won the Super Bowl, and that was the 2003 New England Patriots. Five of the last seven teams went one and done.

With the exit of the Denver Peytons, that stat is now six of the last eight. ...well, six of nine since Atlanta was also 13-3. We'll see how they do tomorrow.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by srrono

very interesting read

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com...chances/20768/

It is not talked about much, but it really does not pay to be the No. 3 seed. Only the 2006 Colts and 1987 Redskins have ever won the Super Bowl from that seed. It is difficult as you would expect to have to beat the top two seeds on the road (Colts only beat No. 2 Baltimore), which is why it was such a disaster for Houston to slip to that spot this year.


Since 1990 only one #3 seed has won a SuperBowl
XLI
#3Seed Colts 29
#1Seed Bears 17


Here's another article
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/50418693/ns/sports-nfl/

Very interesting.

However, are the Texans really the 3 seed? Or should they have been the 1 seed? How many times has a team gone from the 1 seed to the 3 seed in the last week of the season?

[76Texan]

So the Texans strategy was good all along?

They lose the week 17 game in the early time slot and hope for either the Broncos of the Pats to lose in the later games so they can get the second seed?

Going from 1 to 3 didn't affect the odd any so they lost nothing?!?

[Vinny]

its just tough to win in the playoffs...kinda period.

[Hookem Horns]

I don't think the Texans would have beaten the Ravens yesterday. Maybe it was because of Ray Lewis however they would have beaten everyone yesterday. Also with the Texans they would have had the revenge factor going.

If by some miracle the Texans win today ... who knows. Maybe it was for the better they didn't get the top seed.

[Vinny]

Originally Posted by Hookem Horns

I don't think the Texans would have beaten the Ravens yesterday. Maybe it was because of Ray Lewis however they would have beaten everyone yesterday. Also with the Texans they would have had the revenge factor going.

If by some miracle the Texans win today ... who knows. Maybe it was for the better they didn't get the top seed.

Tough to sweep teams in the NFL. Even in the Steel Curtain years the Oilers always split with the Steelers. Not calling an upset, but I think we have a shot if Brady doesn't make a lot of big plays.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by Hookem Horns

I don't think the Texans would have beaten the Ravens yesterday.

I don't know that the game would have gone that way.... I liked our back end last week, so I don't know about the Ravens hitting on those bombs early in the game.

But, if we had to, I don't think we could keep up with the scoring we saw yesterday. I don't think sitting at home waiting for them was a good strategy for us or Denver.

The Patriots sitting & waiting on us, that's a different story. Hopefully they're expecting more of the same. Hopefully they're thinking that Wilfork & Ninkovitch can abuse our line again. Hopefully they're thinking they've solved the Jj Watt puzzle.

Hopefully the Texans that take the field today are not the Texans that didn't show in December.