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Old 01-11-2013   #41
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Default Re: Texans 9 1/2 Point Dogs Against Pats

In regards to Brandon Harris: There's no substitute for REAL games.

Camp, and even preseason games, are no way to get a player ready for the real bullets of a reg season game.

That's why I think Brandon Harris is just having growing pains. Kareem Jackson had an entire 1st season of growing pains in 2010. 2011 he looked better. And now he looks really good out there.

Harris has athletic ability, he plays with passion, and I think he just needs the reps (no matter how many times he screws up) so that he can be out there and learning in a reg season game.
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Old 01-11-2013   #42
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Default Re: Texans 9 1/2 Point Dogs Against Pats

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Originally Posted by GP View Post
In regards to Brandon Harris: There's no substitute for REAL games.

Camp, and even preseason games, are no way to get a player ready for the real bullets of a reg season game.

That's why I think Brandon Harris is just having growing pains. Kareem Jackson had an entire 1st season of growing pains in 2010. 2011 he looked better. And now he looks really good out there.

Harris has athletic ability, he plays with passion, and I think he just needs the reps (no matter how many times he screws up) so that he can be out there and learning in a reg season game.
Completely agree. Harris will get better and better every game he plays.

I'll keep saying "Harris is a bum" every time he makes plays on Twitter. Love trolling some of those idiots on there.
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Old 01-11-2013   #43
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Default Re: Texans 9 1/2 Point Dogs Against Pats

It looks like it has stayed around -9.5 across the board after a -10 open. 69% of the money is on the pats and giving the points but the money line is now 51/49 pats which over the last few days has move considerably from about 80/20 pats. Thats not as positive as the line moving but still people leaning for a texans win. also 79% of the money is on the over
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Old 01-11-2013   #44
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Default Re: Texans 9 1/2 Point Dogs Against Pats

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It looks like it has stayed around -9.5 across the board after a -10 open. 69% of the money is on the pats and giving the points but the money line is now 51/49 pats which over the last few days has move considerably from about 80/20 pats. Thats not as positive as the line moving but still people leaning for a texans win. also 79% of the money is on the over


The line hasn't moved but money has the money line bet has flipped 51/49 texans and side bets have moved to 65/35 pats. If this keeps up the line should start coming down
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Old 01-11-2013   #45
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Default Re: Texans 9 1/2 Point Dogs Against Pats

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Originally Posted by 2012Champs View Post
It looks like it has stayed around -9.5 across the board after a -10 open. 69% of the money is on the pats and giving the points but the money line is now 51/49 pats which over the last few days has move considerably from about 80/20 pats. Thats not as positive as the line moving but still people leaning for a texans win. also 79% of the money is on the over
I think that's people simply playing the odds. On my site the Texans are +355 and the Pats are -445. Not a ton of value in placing a $445 wager only to win $100 unless its part of a parlay. On the other hand a lot of people will take a shot betting $100 on the Texans to win and getting back $355. I never bet money on Texans games so I'm gonna continue that, but I expect the line to stay pretty much where its at or even maybe get up to 10.5 by game time.
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Old 01-11-2013   #46
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Default Re: Texans 9 1/2 Point Dogs Against Pats

After watching the 42-12 loss over, the Pats had everything go their way in this game. They blew us out mostly due to simply our lack of ability to make plays throughout the game. Those 3rd down penalties that extended Patriots drives were also killers. The Texans are not built to fall behind 21-0 like that, especially against a team like the Patriots. They aren't a quick strike offense. I honestly think that if Kareem falls on that fumble its a whole different ballgame. Bottom line - I think we can win if we do not fall behind early like the previous game.
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Old 01-11-2013   #47
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Default Re: Texans 9 1/2 Point Dogs Against Pats

Definitely agree with that fumble recovery. Believe it could have been a major turning point.
Anyway, I never gamble on sports.
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Old 01-11-2013   #48
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Default Re: Texans 9 1/2 Point Dogs Against Pats

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Originally Posted by Texn4life View Post
I think that's people simply playing the odds. On my site the Texans are +355 and the Pats are -445. Not a ton of value in placing a $445 wager only to win $100 unless its part of a parlay. On the other hand a lot of people will take a shot betting $100 on the Texans to win and getting back $355. I never bet money on Texans games so I'm gonna continue that, but I expect the line to stay pretty much where its at or even maybe get up to 10.5 by game time.


I understand the multiplier given the ml wager but you need an outright win. When I posted than before 5dimes had moved to -9 but now they are back to 9.5. There might not have been value in laying the ml -400 but that's where most of the money was until this afternoon
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Old 01-11-2013   #49
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Default Re: Texans 9 1/2 Point Dogs Against Pats

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The spread is set to attract bettors to the Texans side of the wager.

Everyone is jumping on NE.
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Patriots either KILL us by 3+ scores, or we win by less than a touchdown. I'd bet the shi* out of this if I were a gambling man...
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It looks like it has stayed around -9.5 across the board after a -10 open. 69% of the money is on the pats and giving the points but the money line is now 51/49 pats which over the last few days has move considerably from about 80/20 pats. Thats not as positive as the line moving but still people leaning for a texans win. also 79% of the money is on the over

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2012Champs View Post
The line hasn't moved but money has the money line bet has flipped 51/49 texans and side bets have moved to 65/35 pats. If this keeps up the line should start coming down



Man you guys lose a lot of money betting or you don't bet at all. -9.5 is a favorite mild lean, -10 and above is a dog lean, just how sports betting works. You make much better money by not betting a loser, than you do betting a winner, fyi. Stay away if you're not too bright. The over is the only quality bet here, and by a small percentage. If you're betting on the Texans to cover, wait. The line will move a little more, possibly up to -10.5. If you're betting NE jump now.

Stats percentage says Texans cover. I'm not convinced. If you could tease Texans over and Ravens +9 it might be an okay bet, but I'm still staying away from this game.
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Old 01-11-2013   #50
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Default Re: Texans 9 1/2 Point Dogs Against Pats

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Man you guys lose a lot of money betting or you don't bet at all. -9.5 is a favorite mild lean, -10 and above is a dog lean, just how sports betting works. You make much better money by not betting a loser, than you do betting a winner, fyi. Stay away if you're not too bright. The over is the only quality bet here, and by a small percentage. If you're betting on the Texans to cover, wait. The line will move a little more, possibly up to -10.5. If you're betting NE jump now.

Stats percentage says Texans cover. I'm not convinced. If you could tease Texans over and Ravens +9 it might be an okay bet, but I'm still staying away from this game.
I'll start out by saying I stay far away from gambling. But FYI, I've come across a couple of sites that have already moved the Pats to -10.
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Old 01-11-2013   #51
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Default Re: Texans 9 1/2 Point Dogs Against Pats

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I'll start out by saying I stay far away from gambling. But FYI, I've come across a couple of sites that have already moved the Pats to -10.
That's pretty much the tipping point in NFL betting. When you see that the PATS have only covered as a 6.5+ point fave 38% of the time over the last 33 games, that 50% of NFL games are decided by 7 points or less, and that playoff football rarely results in double digit defecits in the divisional round even with the home team winning outright 58% of the time, it's smarter money to bet anything -10 or more to the dog.
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