The Film Room: Why The Patriots Should Be So Very, Very Afraid Of The Texans

[mridge01]

Originally Posted by TexanSam

To be fair, Ridley did have a better year than Foster did. He had 290 carries for 1263 yards for a 5.1 ypc. Foster had 351 carries for 1424 yards and a 4.1 ypc. Add 60 more carries to Ridley and he probably has more yards than Foster. Foster's body of work over the last 3 seasons makes him the better player however. His weak sauce comment than the Texans lack talent though is ridiculous though.

Ridley had 12 TDs, Foster had 17 total. Easy decision.

[fiasco west]

Originally Posted by Pats

Daniels is the 23rd ranked TE in the NFL. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/te Hernandez is comparable to him and Hernandez has been playing injured most of the season.

Ridley is ranked higher than Foster who was stuffed for 46 yards last game. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb2012

Where is all this talent?

Same Rankings Put Decker over Roddy White so have fun with that. The fact that Foster is having a 'bad' year with 1500 yards is really all you need to know about the two.

Where is all the talent? You have the Center, LG, and LT as pro-bowl players. You have a top 5 RB, a really good TE that must be covered.

On defense you have the BEST defensive player in the NFL in J.J. Watt, Antonio Smith, Joseph, Manning, Quinn are all good players. You all are just lucky that Cushing is not playing and I mean extremely lucky that he's not playing or your team is probably playing in Reliant this weekend.

With all that said, I don't have to make a case that this team has talent. They went 12-4 so obviously they have talent.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by Pats

Daniels is the 23rd ranked TE in the NFL. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/te Hernandez is comparable to him and Hernandez has been playing injured most of the season.

Ridley is ranked higher than Foster who was stuffed for 46 yards last game. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb2012

Where is all this talent?

O. D. Has been playing hurt for awhile.
And we don't know how effective the Gronk will be after a long lay-off.
Maybe he's fresher; maybe he has some rust; maybe the Texans knock him out again.

[Vinny]

The thing that gives me a glimpse of hope is that it is very tough to win twice against anyone in this league. The Texans slow, plodding offense will likely be shut down this weekend since it seems to have been exposed by late November (nobody is falling for the tricky stuff this late in the season) but if they can play great defense they have a shot. I wish we were playing the Ratbirds like we should be playing...too bad we didn't let Denver v NE cancel one of themselves out....but that hash is just re-hash at this point.

[DX-TEX]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

O. D. Has been playing hurt for awhile.
And we don't know how effective the Gronk will be after a long lay-off.
Maybe he's fresher; maybe he has some rust; maybe the Texans knock him out again.

Numerous articles I have read have stated that gronkowski was favoring the broken arm in the final game against the Dolphins.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by Vinny

The thing that gives me a glimpse of hope is that it is very tough to win twice against anyone in this league. The Texans slow, plodding offense will likely be shut down this weekend since it seems to have been exposed by late November (nobody is falling for the tricky stuff this late in the season) but if they can play great defense they have a shot. I wish we were playing the Ratbirds like we should be playing...too bad we didn't let Denver v NE cancel one of themselves out....but that hash is just re-hash at this point.

The Pats fell for their own tricky play when. Patrick Cbung fumbled the direct snap on a fake punt against the Jets in their last play-off game.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by DX-TEX

Numerous articles I have read have stated that gronkowski was favoring the broken arm in the final game against the Dolphins.

He will have two more weeks to nurse it by game time.

Heck, he might have been faking it!

[Vinny]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

The Pats fell for their own tricky play when. Patrick Cbung fumbled the direct snap on a fake punt against the Jets in their last play-off game.

nothing to do with what I was talking about...but hey, you go boie

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by Vinny

nothing to do with what I was talking about...but hey, you go boie

What I said was that trick play came back and bit the trickster in the rear end.

[Vinny]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

What I said was that trick play came back and bit the trickster in the rear end.

I can read...it still had nothing to do with my point.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by Vinny

I can read...it still had nothing to do with my point.

Only the portion in parentheses.

[Goodwrench3]

Originally Posted by Pats

Daniels is the 23rd ranked TE in the NFL. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/te Hernandez is comparable to him and Hernandez has been playing injured most of the season.

Ridley is ranked higher than Foster who was stuffed for 46 yards last game. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb2012

Where is all this talent?

Retarded comment....

[Double Barrel]

Originally Posted by Vinny

The thing that gives me a glimpse of hope is that it is very tough to win twice against anyone in this league. The Texans slow, plodding offense will likely be shut down this weekend since it seems to have been exposed by late November (nobody is falling for the tricky stuff this late in the season) but if they can play great defense they have a shot. I wish we were playing the Ratbirds like we should be playing...too bad we didn't let Denver v NE cancel one of themselves out....but that hash is just re-hash at this point.

I heard an interesting stat about Tom Brady on the radio this morning.

When he's pressured by a blitz and only has up to 3 seconds to pass, he's something around 70% completion.

But, when he's given longer to pass - i.e. a cover 2 defense - his completions drop to around 40%.

I think Wade's aggressive style is something that plays into one of Brady's strengths. Do you think there is any chance that Wade dials it back and tries to force the Patriots to run more?

I agree with you about beating a team twice in a season. Kubiak acts like they do not remember that game, but I do not believe it. Of course they remember a game that started their tailspin, a game in which they tried to strut up to Foxboro and got manhandled and dominated. I'm hoping this is the incentive for them in some way. It would be for most people.

[C Madd]

Originally Posted by Vinny

The thing that gives me a glimpse of hope is that it is very tough to win twice against anyone in this league. The Texans slow, plodding offense will likely be shut down this weekend since it seems to have been exposed by late November (nobody is falling for the tricky stuff this late in the season) but if they can play great defense they have a shot. I wish we were playing the Ratbirds like we should be playing...too bad we didn't let Denver v NE cancel one of themselves out....but that hash is just re-hash at this point.

I think that, despite what most would say, the offense showed signs of life against the Bengals. Do I think we would win a shoot-out with NE? No. But, I don't think it is a certainty that our offense gets shut down. The slump in the last part of the season seemed more about lack of execution than defenses exposing it.

[C Madd]

Originally Posted by Double Barrel

I heard an interesting stat about Tom Brady on the radio this morning.

When he's pressured by a blitz and only has up to 3 seconds to pass, he's something around 70% completion.

But, when he's given longer to pass - i.e. a cover 2 defense - his completions drop to around 40%.

I think Wade's aggressive style is something that plays into one of Brady's strengths. Do you think there is any chance that Wade dials it back and tries to force the Patriots to run more?

I agree with you about beating a team twice in a season. Kubiak acts like they do not remember that game, but I do not believe it. Of course they remember a game that started their tailspin, a game in which they tried to strut up to Foxboro and got manhandled and dominated. I'm hoping this is the incentive for them in some way. It would be for most people.

Hopefully, Wade will change it up similar to how Rex Ryan changed up the defense in the Jets' playoff rematch versus the Pats in 2010.

[Tailgate]

Originally Posted by C Madd

Hopefully, Wade will change it up similar to how Rex Ryan changed up the defense in the Jets' playoff rematch versus the Pats in 2010.

In theory, its the way to go... In reality can we be efficient enough against this offense when we hardly ever played the zone? Or are we so committed to man, that there is no turning back? Honest question.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by Double Barrel

I heard an interesting stat about Tom Brady on the radio this morning.

When he's pressured by a blitz and only has up to 3 seconds to pass, he's something around 70% completion.

But, when he's given longer to pass - i.e. a cover 2 defense - his completions drop to around 40%.

I think Wade's aggressive style is something that plays into one of Brady's strengths. Do you think there is any chance that Wade dials it back and tries to force the Patriots to run more?

I agree with you about beating a team twice in a season. Kubiak acts like they do not remember that game, but I do not believe it. Of course they remember a game that started their tailspin, a game in which they tried to strut up to Foxboro and got manhandled and dominated. I'm hoping this is the incentive for them in some way. It would be for most people.

40%?

I found it hard to believe.

I rewatched the Jets Patriots 2010 play-off game a couple days ago when the Jets rushed mostly 3 or 4 (actually, it's more complicate than that), Brady was still doing well.

29-45 (64.44%) for 299 yards and 2 TDs.

The one INT he threw was just a weird play where he threw over the head of the RB into the hands of a LB (he wasn't pressured).

And his TE dropped a TD (Crumpler I think) in the end zone.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by C Madd

Hopefully, Wade will change it up similar to how Rex Ryan changed up the defense in the Jets' playoff rematch versus the Pats in 2010.

Originally Posted by Tailgate

In theory, its the way to go... In reality can we be efficient enough against this offense when we hardly ever played the zone? Or are we so committed to man, that there is no turning back? Honest question.

It's quite a bit more involved than that.
I want to rewatch that Jets game one more time to really get into it.
I did watch each play quite carefully, but didn't take a whole lot of notes for the second half.

[Tailgate]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

40%?

I found it hard to believe.

I rewatched the Jets Patriots 2010 play-off game a couple days ago when the Jets rushed mostly 3 or 4 (actually, it's more complicate than that), Brady was still doing well.

29-45 (64.44%) for 299 yards and 2 TDs.

The one INT he threw was just a weird play where he threw over the head of the RB into the hands of a LB (he wasn't pressured).

And his TE dropped a TD (Crumpler I think) in the end zone.

41% if he takes longer than 3 secs to get rid of the ball.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-e...dy-at-his-best

There is precedent for a heavy-blitzing 3-4 defense playing aggressively in the regular season against Brady and losing, then meeting again in the postseason and winning. The 2009 Ravens and 2010 Jets both lost regular-season meetings and gained redemption in the playoffs, but they had to adjust their strategy:

2009 Ravens
* Baltimore sent at least five rushers on 21 of 37 dropbacks (56.8 percent) in a Week 4 loss. Brady finished 14 of 20 for 167 yards and the game-winning touchdown against added pressure, and was sacked only once.


Comparing Tom Brady vs. 5+ rushers - facing
'09 Ravens/'10 Jets in reg. season & playoffs:

Pct of Tot Dropbacks:

Reg - 48%
Playoffs - 17%

Dropbacks per Sack:

Reg - 17.0
Playoffs - 8.0

TD-Int:

Reg - 4-0
Playoffs - 0-0

Total QBR:

77.3
13.2

Reg - 2-1 record
Playoffs - 0-2 record

* In their playoff rematch, the Ravens sent extra rushers on 10 of 45 dropbacks (22.2 percent), and Brady’s overall numbers in Baltimore’s playoff win were 23 of 42, 154 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. Brady also was sacked three times and fumbled on New England’s opening drive, setting up the Ravens at the NE 17-yard line.

2010 Jets
* New York sent at least five rushers in their two regular-season meetings on 30 of 69 dropbacks (43.5 percent), with Brady finishing 18 of 28 for 335 yards and three touchdowns. Though the Jets won their first meeting of the season in Week 2, New England won 45-3 in Week 13 on Monday Night Football, highlighted by Brady’s 8-of-13, 199-yard, 3-TD performance against added pressure.

* In the playoffs, the Jets sent extra pressure on 6 of 50 dropbacks (12.0 percent), and Brady was sacked five times in New York’s win, finishing 29 of 45 for 299 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.

If history holds, committing extra pass rushers on Sunday would not be wise for Wade Phillips and the Texans’ defense. Those defenders would be better served dropping into coverage and taking away quick-to-develop routes, like the 2009 Ravens and 2010 Jets did in previous playoff victories.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by Tailgate

41% if he takes longer than 3 secs to get rid of the ball.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-e...dy-at-his-best

Did they really have somebody time every single of his passes?

And they referred to the Jets play-off game (but his completion percentage didn't suffer in that game); the Pats lost for various reasons, and not simply because of more men in coverage (it's more involved than tha.)