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Old 01-09-2013   #41
76Texan
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Default Re: More people noticing Kubiaks Conservative play calling...

In 2012, Schaub had 53 attempts in the red zone.

He threw for 14 TDs and 2 INTs.

14/53 = 26.42% of the attempts went into the endzone and resulted in a TD

16/53 = 30.19%, (taking account the 2 INTs) of his attempts went into the endzone.


The rest of the league had 2,125 attempts.

They had 496 TDs and 53 Ints.

496/2,125 = 23.34% of the attempts went into the endzone and resulted in a TD.

549/2,125 = 25.84% (inlcuding INTs)

As we can see here, on these two aspects, Schaub had attempted more passes into the endzone (as a percentage of pass attempts) than the average of the league (about 5% more of the time.)

This does not take into account passes thrown into the endzone that resulted in incompletions or the time a QB was sacked while attempting to do so.

We'll get to that a little later.

To say that the Texans had Schaub not throwing into the endzone is incorrect.

Yes, the Texans did run a lot in the redzone (because they can).
But when they did pass, they weren't shy about going for six points.
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Old 01-09-2013   #42
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Default Re: More people noticing Kubiaks Conservative play calling...

Quote:
Originally Posted by eriadoc View Post
It's just too bad, huh? Damn the bad luck! No skill at the QB position could have possibly resulted in a different outcome.

That IS too bad.
Each play is called with its own read progression for the QB.

They are grilled to do just that.

You don't wait until after the snap to decide where to look first.
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Old 01-09-2013   #43
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Default Re: More people noticing Kubiaks Conservative play calling...

I will have a series of posts detailing in all the pass attempts by Schaub in the redzone.

I omit some of TD passes as they have already been counted.

All the stats I had on the above post can be obtained with the "Game Play Finder" feature at ProFootball Reference .com (I had mentioned this several times already.)

I don't have time to count the sacks and the attempts into the endzone (resulting in incompletions) that other QBs took.

I can only go with Schaub; I think it's enough to show that, additionally, there were plenty of plays called for him to go for six.

(Again, as a percentage of total pass attempts.)
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Old 01-09-2013   #44
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Default Re: More people noticing Kubiaks Conservative play calling...

Dolphins

2nd quarter, 7:23
1st and 12 (after a false start) at the Dolphins 12
Matt Schaub pass incomplete short left intended for James Casey
PA pass; Dolphins end man didn't bite the PAS fake and chased after Schaub.
He couldn't wait and had to get rid of the ball.

Next play
Matt Schaub sacked by Randy Starks for -8 yards
Schaub was setting up and waiting to see if Walter can get open in the endzone;
Starks beat Wade Smith too quickly, however.


4th qtr, 12:31
3rd and 1 at Miami 1
Matt Schaub pass incomplete short left intended for Owen Daniels
Fade pass by Schaub into the endzone.
Schaub couldn't step into the throw and sailed the ball high.

(Schaub threw a 14yd TD to AJ just on 1st and 10 from the Dolphins 14 just before halftime.)
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Old 01-09-2013   #45
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Default Re: More people noticing Kubiaks Conservative play calling...

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Originally Posted by Fiddler View Post
You're feeding into the nonsense. Kubiak calls the plays, he doesn't tell Matt where to throw it. Matt has options. Matt chooses not to throw the ball over 10 yards.

Unless you have evidence that we had no receivers run past 10 yards down the field more than 3 times, this has nothing to do with Kubiak.
So do you have evidence for your point? I mean you're going to ask someone for evidence to prove a point then you have some for yours...right? Though in the end it doesn't matter who is blame because neither are going anywhere. I would just like to see it fixed. And of course it will still have something to do with Kubiak. He leads the team and is the coach with a hands-on approach to the offense. It's rarely just a one person issue.

Just like your examples for the Patriots game I can throw some that go the other direction. A 3rd and 9 where Dre is hit for 8 yards. A 3rd and long where Jean is hit for 7 yards. It goes both ways and that is the problem. We don't push the field in these situations in a consistent manner. I remember one Bengals play that frustrated me where most of the targets ran a pattern below the first down marker. Kind of makes it easy on the safety when there is only one receiver deep (intermediate really). He has little to think about so that one option will not be open.
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Old 01-09-2013   #46
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Default Re: More people noticing Kubiaks Conservative play calling...

Jaguars

1st qtr, 9:34
Matt Schaub pass incomplete short middle intended for Arian Foster
Pressure came quickly; Schaub basically threw the ball away.

You can't ask Schaub to go into the endzone here.
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Old 01-09-2013   #47
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Default Re: More people noticing Kubiaks Conservative play calling...

Broncos

2nd qtr, 11:41
Matt Schaub pass incomplete (defended by Elvis Dumervil)
Play action pass.
Schaub wanted to throw to AJ in the back of the end zone, but Dummerville came too quickly.


(Schaub threw a 3yd TD pass to Foster on 3rd and 3 from the Broncos 3 in the second qtr
and a 14yd TD to OD on 2nd and 10 from the Broncos 14 toward the end of the third.)
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Old 01-09-2013   #48
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Default Re: More people noticing Kubiaks Conservative play calling...

Titans

1st qtr, 1:36
3rd and 1 at Titans 13
Matt Schaub pass complete short right to Keshawn Martin for 2 yards (tackled by Ryan Mouton).
With two defender boring on him, Schaub completed a pass to Martin for a first down.
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Old 01-09-2013   #49
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Default Re: More people noticing Kubiaks Conservative play calling...

76Texan, man those are nice stats as I love getting the numbers and all but the truth is the issues are as of late. Not earlier in the season. Not even mid-point. The offense began wavering probably after the Patriots game.

For example, the last 3 games of the year the Texans scored 25% touchdowns in the redzone putting them in the bottom quarter of the league in this category. The team we're about to face? The Patriots scored touchdowns 81.82% in the redzone. So instead of killing yourself going all the way back to game one you should just focus on what has happened lately. Heh, then again you just may enjoy it and if so, more power to ya man.
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Old 01-09-2013   #50
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Default Re: More people noticing Kubiaks Conservative play calling...

Jets

2nd qtr 0:14
1st and 9 at Jets 9
Matt Schaub pass incomplete short left intended for Owen Daniels.
Pressure came right on top of him, Schaub got rid of the ball to save time since it's nearly the end of the half.

Next play with 9 seconds left in the half, Schaub tried to get the ball to AJ in the deep left corner, but the ball just sailed on him high.
He couldn't wait any longer because a DT was about to get to him
(It had already been 5 seconds from the snap; the ball left his hand with 4 seconds left in the half and the play was whistled over with 2 seconds left.)

If he takes a sack here, there's no FG as time would run out.

With 2 seconds left and a 7-pt lead, the Texans kicked a FG.
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Old 01-09-2013   #51
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Default Re: More people noticing Kubiaks Conservative play calling...

GB

3rd qtr, 1:50
1st and 10
Matt Schaub pass incomplete deep right intended for Andre Johnson.
Deep fade into the endzone with ball right off AJ's fingertips.
This was due to the CB playing well and physical; the ball was thrown right where it needed to be.

Next play, 2nd and 10.
Matt Schaub pass complete short middle to Keshawn Martin for 12 yards (tackle by Morgan Burnett)
Schaub led Martin very well.
Even though it was a short pass, Martin had plenty of room to run.
Only the double tackles (2 guys) swerved Martin to one side, such that his knee touched the ground just before he can surge into the end zone.
(This play doesn't count as a pass into the endzone, but it is worth mentioning.)

4th qtr, 7:33
Matt Schaub pass incomplete deep left intended for Keshawn Martin (defended by Casey Hayward).
Throw into the endzone; Hayward was able to sky and barely tipped the ball away.

4th qtr, 7:22
3rd and 10 at GB 20
Matt Schaub pass incomplete deep right intended for Keshawn Martin
is intercepted by Casey Hayward at GNB--4 and returned for 17 yards (tackle by Owen Daniels).
The pass was into the endzone about a yard or two deep.
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Old 01-09-2013   #52
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Default Re: More people noticing Kubiaks Conservative play calling...

Ravens
On third and 10 at the Ravens 23, Schaub went to OD in the endzone;
Pollard was called for unecessary roughness.
(This one was just outside RZ, I just happened to see it so I went ahead and included it.)

Schaub threw a 1yd TD pass to OD on first and goal at the 1 in this game.
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Old 01-09-2013   #53
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Default Re: More people noticing Kubiaks Conservative play calling...

Bills

2nd qtr 7:21
On 2nd and 9, Schaub was sacked right away for a 4yd loss.

Newton was then called for False Start to make it 3rd and 18.
There's not much to do on 3rd and very long as I had already mentioned some time ago,
even the Pats were a hair more conservative than the Texans on 3rd and 18 or longer.

In the fourth qtr, 11:32
On third and goal at the 5 Schaub threw a 5yd TD pass to Graham.
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Old 01-09-2013   #54
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Default Re: More people noticing Kubiaks Conservative play calling...

Jaguars

OT
3rd and 2 just outside the 20
Pass to Martin in the endzone; Jags called for PI.
This one is not on a stat sheet as a pass attempt, but it was a pass attempt into the endzone that could have resulted in a TD.

Next play, 1st and 9 at the 9,
Schaub pass to OD just out his reach in the end zone.

3rd and 7 at the Jags 7
Matt Schaub pass incomplete short right intended for Andre Johnson (defended by Derek Cox)
Back shoulder fade in the end zone, well-defended by Cox.
Actually, Cox kinda pushed off just a tad in AJ's chest.
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Old 01-09-2013   #55
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Default Re: More people noticing Kubiaks Conservative play calling...

Titans

1st qtr 1:29
2nd and 7, Schaub pass to OD in the end zone was just long.

A 5yd TD to Casey followed later in this drive.
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Old 01-09-2013   #56
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Default Re: More people noticing Kubiaks Conservative play calling...

Pats

On 3rd and goal at the 1; Schaub looked to pass but nobody was open.
He had to throw the ball away as two defenders were upon him.
He didn't take the sack here, and Foster scored on a 1yd TD run on the next play (on 4th down).
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Old 01-09-2013   #57
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Default Re: More people noticing Kubiaks Conservative play calling...

First Colts Game.

Schaub was looking to go into the endzone when both OTs got beat and Freeney was credited for the sack.
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Old 01-09-2013   #58
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Default Re: More people noticing Kubiaks Conservative play calling...

Quote:
Originally Posted by deucetx View Post
So do you have evidence for your point? I mean you're going to ask someone for evidence to prove a point then you have some for yours...right? Though in the end it doesn't matter who is blame because neither are going anywhere. I would just like to see it fixed. And of course it will still have something to do with Kubiak. He leads the team and is the coach with a hands-on approach to the offense. It's rarely just a one person issue.
The only evidence I have, are the screenshots that was being posted here, in another thread, & the reports that Walter was open down the field when Schaub threw the INT in the Bengals game.

I don't have a plethora of evidence, but the point here, is that people are blaming the game plan but pointing to Schaub checking down..... this thread was started because of an article in which the premise is that Schaub is checking down.

Checking down infers that he's opting for the short routes. If that is the case, it isn't a "gameplan" issue, but a QB issue.

This was the problem with David Carr. Forget all the other problems he had, if he would have threw the ball down the field, especially in 3rd & long situations, especially when we needed to stretch the field to keep the defenses honest, we would have worked through all that other stuff. I honestly believe that.

With Carr checking down all the time, he gave us no chance to win. When Kubiak tried to get him to throw the long ball, he threw it at the wrong time, into the wrong coverage.
Quote:
Originally Posted by deucetx View Post
Just like your examples for the Patriots game I can throw some that go the other direction. A 3rd and 9 where Dre is hit for 8 yards. A 3rd and long where Jean is hit for 7 yards. It goes both ways and that is the problem. We don't push the field in these situations in a consistent manner. I remember one Bengals play that frustrated me where most of the targets ran a pattern below the first down marker. Kind of makes it easy on the safety when there is only one receiver deep (intermediate really). He has little to think about so that one option will not be open.
As far as throwing short of the sticks, I'd prefer not to, but if we're throwing to Andre, OD, or Arian, I have no problem with it as those guys have picked up that first down plenty of times, I like our odds there. If it's to KDub..... not so much.
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Old 01-09-2013   #59
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Default Re: More people noticing Kubiaks Conservative play calling...

Vikings game

Third qtr, On 2nd and 12 at the 13, Schaub led Walter on a pass that almost went for a TD.
They called Walter's knees down inside the 1.
Even though the pass didn't go into the endzone, it was a very good play that almost went for a score.

On the next play, Schaub was flushed out of the pocket by 2 defenders;
his pass to OD in the end zone was off-target.

After a run that went nowhere, the Texans went back to pass but the pocket collapsed, Schaub was sacked.
A hair more time, and he could have connected with OD in the endzone
(OD might have been held on that play and wasn't open soon enough.)

The Texans had to settle for a FG.

There was no lack of trying here.
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Old 01-09-2013   #60
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Default Re: More people noticing Kubiaks Conservative play calling...

There you have it.

I've gone through every pass plays in the regular season.

There's no indication whatsoever that the Texans are timid with the pass in the redzone.
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