Game Planning for the Patriots

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by El Tejano

3 runs all to the left side to start the game. Foster is pissed and we need to get him going.

I think people will be surprised with how many yards Foster picked up running to the right. In fact, when we needed a first down to seal the win, they ran to the right.

[Tailgate]

Originally Posted by HOU-TEX

Pray that Brady and Wilfork get food poisoning?

I don't really expect us to win this game, but I can't wait to see how B. Brooks handles Wilfork. I thought he played a very good game against the Bengals and we all know what Vince did to Jones. Hopefully they line up head to head for, what I think would be, an epic battle in the trenches.

Interesting. So I ventured over to PFF, just curious and I know its all subjective.

Vs NE, Brooks played 26 snaps to Jones 50. Brooks graded out at 0.2 while Jones was the worst of any offensive player in the game at -3.6.

Vs Cincy, Brooks and Jones both played 40 snaps. Brooks was graded out as the worst offensive player at -2.9 while Jones graded out at -.03.

In other words, that was a waste of time lol.

Not that PFF really matters but for the year Brooks 172 snaps at -1.2 overall, with Jones 742 snaps at -6.1 overall.

[Premier]

we lost sharpton too, we are on empty at ILB.. gronkowski is the glaring mismatch, he would have been trouble for cush.. im not too thrilled about trying to contain this guy..

[deucetx]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

I think people will be surprised with how many yards Foster picked up running to the right. In fact, when we needed a first down to seal the win, they ran to the right.

Heh, my man, you are being overly positive. We didn't do as good to the right as the left. Not even close.

right side for Foster = 14 carries 34 yards 2.4 avg.

left side for Foster = 18 carries 106 yards 5.9

So yeah...the left side was much stronger. The difference was even Owen Daniels was blocking pretty good along with Graham. But the usual suspects still played servicable or slightly below average.

[Tailgate]

Originally Posted by deucetx

Heh, my man, you are being overly positive. We didn't do as good to the left as the right. Not even close.

right side for Foster = 14 carries 34 yards 2.4 avg.

left side for Foster = 18 carries 106 yards 5.9

So yeah...the left side was much stronger. The difference was even Owen Daniels was blocking pretty good along with Graham. But the usual suspects still played servicable or slightly below average.

Graham is big in the running game and will be an interesting additon this time around, especially with our disguises. Daniels two worst games this year came against GB and NE. We need both TEs to put in big games this week.

[infantrycak]

Originally Posted by El Tejano

Foster is pissed and we need to get him going.

Trivia from 610 am - Foster just became the 1st RB in NFL history to gain 100+ yds in each of his first three playoff games.

[Tailgate]

So where are the Patriots weaknesses? It would have to be the lack of pass rush right? Not much else, other than secondary possibly?

Why after typing that do I get reminded that this will ultimately be on Schaub and Kubiaks playcalling? And despite this past games showing, we are not going to be able to run the ball on NE? Do we force force force, and rely on the run game no matter? We all heard the talk after Sat of us getting back to us playing OUR game again and doing what we do and I am sure they expect? Or is the timing perfect for Kubiak to trick them and go all out air attack... Foster out of backfield, hitting AJ and the TEs early and often? Would that soften up the D enough to slip Foster through as a result of the passing game?

[TexansLucky13]

Originally Posted by Tailgate

We really need to score 7 on our opening drive no matter how we do it. Getting behind early IS NOT an option.

Getting Gronk back is HUGE for them. Ultimately our offense is going to have to play defense with long sustaining drives that end in TDs (FG's, and we are toast). We must eat the clock. Schaub will need more quick throws to ALL our TEs (Casey as well), we must get Foster to the second level of the D when we run the ball on first down, and we will need to get Foster involved in the passing game this time... The int play, and overthrown ball to Foster in space says that play was there for us when we needed it. If we can run for 4+ yards on first down, involve our TEs now out of the 2 and 3 TE sets (supposedly a weakness for the Pats D), and use Foster out of backfield, it will allow AJ and our WRs to get more open for first down strikes and the deep ball.

You just described Kubiak's entire philosophy. Keep their defense off balance and keep their offense on the bench. If we do this, we win.

[Tailgate]

Originally Posted by TexansLucky13

You just described Kubiak's entire philosophy. Keep their defense off balance and keep their offense on the bench. If we do this, we win.

The Pats game plan will be to neutrilize Foster. Thats their entire focus. They know we have to control the clock to have a chance. They will in essence be inviting the pass and expecting the run. And why wouldnt they? They are not scared of Schaub in the least. So becoming a passing team first is not typically on Kubiaks list of things to do. But maybe now is the right time to gamble? The good news is with Graham now back we can still go with the type of passing game we may need disguised with the same sets as our usual running game.

[patfanken]

Just stopping by to possibly offer some insights from a Pats fan's point of view, in exchange for some answers to some question I'm having about the Texans.

As far as the defense goes, its a very interesting comparison of styles I've gotten to see 3 Texan games in the last month (Pats, Colts, Cinci) and it seems to me that the Texans play defense with one basic style. An aggressive attacking front 7, supported by a secondary playing tough man to man coverage. It looked like you brought 5 men about 50% of the time.

In contrast the Pats front 7 plays 2 gap, even when in a 4-3. They blitz only about 20% of the time, and the secondary is generally in some kind of zone. I will mention however that recently (as its VERY YOUNG defense got more experienced, and Talib joined the team) they've played more man coverage and blitzed a bit more.

My first question is: Will Wade Phillips continue to "go with what got him here", or can he channel his inner Rex Ryan and pull a 180 and go against his basic philosophy and try to duplicate what the Jets did in the 2010 playoffs?

The Texans are likely to see the Pats at their season long healthiest. The Pats did lose 3 starters to the IR, which by the way, is a very good year for them (LB Dane Fletcher, CB Ras-I Dowling, and WR/PR Julian Edelman). But the OL which has been banged up all year has had a run of 4 games straight where all the starters have played. I think that's the longest stretch of the season.

Gronk has been out as you know and played about 20 snaps in the season ender, so some of the rust got knocked off. But he did favor the broken arm in the game when he blocked. I don't know if the additional 2 weeks rest has improved it. It didn't affect his receiving, but normally Gronk is the best blocking TE in the league. He wasn't against Miami. If he is again on Sunday, then the Pats running game will be improved.

My second question is this: After the Pats scored on its first 3 drives, the Texans for all purposes shut the Pats down for about 2 quarters, with exception of the Hail Mary-like TD pass to Stallworth. Was the Texan success during that stretch the result of an adjustment Wade made, better execution by the Texans, or poor execution by the Pats? I'm wondering if any of you Texan fans who get the "all 22" from NFL.com have broken that down.

Don't sleep on the Pats defense. It IS getting better, even though we are starting 3 rookies (Jones, Hightower, and Dennard) and have 2 more playing certain defensive packages (Wilson and Francis). I shouldn't have to remind you that the vaunted Texan Defense and the much maligned Pats defense allow exactly the same number of points to the opposition.

My Third question - On the opening drive of the first game, the Texans and Arian Foster ripped the Pats D for 3 runs of over 15 yds (one called back on a penalty), forcing the Pats to call a TO. It didn't look good. My question is what happened after that? Foster wound up with only 46 yds, the entire Texan running attack was limited to about 100 yds and 40 of those came on 2 runs.

The Texan running attack looked awesome against the Bengals. Foster was literally breaking the ankles of every Bengal LB out there. What happened in NE last time, and what's changed with the Texans that makes you think that it will be any different this time?

Finally, I can't tell you how impressed, I and most Pats fans were with JJ Watt. He was a big favorite with Pats draftniks when he came out....and there was a time where it looked like he might fall to us, I was both surprised and disappoint when the Texans took him at 11. And what looked like a reach at the time, turned out to be the steal of the draft.

What impressed me most was this. Statistically it would have seemed like the Pats shut him down. This was the ONLY game of the year where Watt didn't have a sack, deflection, or tackle for a loss this season. YET for anyone who watched that game, JJ Watt was the single most impactful defensive player that we have seen this year. (though ASmith was a close 2nd). That's hard to believe given he didn't record a single significant defensive stat.....and STILL stood out from the rest.

BTW- Nate Solder our LT was a nice consolation prize, who eventually will see a lot of Pro bowls, before he's done, but.....

Thanks for you patience, I look forward to your feedback

[michaelm]

IIRC, Foster has been much less involved in the pass game for some reason I cannot understand. This might be an opportunity to get him 6-8 passes, hopefully some of them out in space.
Also, Kubiak seriously needs to have a plan for Wilfork. I'll flip my lid if I see him in our backfield as much as he was in the last game.

[Foxboro Steve]

Brady > Shaub
Belichick > Kubiak

That is about as succinct as I can make it. You guys have some real studs on your team (Watt, Foster, Johnson), but in the end , I suspect the two "math problems" above will prove to be the difference.

[thunderkyss]

Originally Posted by Foxboro Steve

Brady > Shaub
Belichick > Kubiak

That is about as succinct as I can make it. You guys have some real studs on your team (Watt, Foster, Johnson), but in the end , I suspect the two "math problems" above will prove to be the difference.

eh..... How much better is Brady than our defense? How much better is Schaub than your defense? Add those two, take the square root, multiply by pi & that's how bad we're going to kick yer a55

[Tailgate]

Originally Posted by Foxboro Steve

Brady > Shaub
Belichick > Kubiak

That is about as succinct as I can make it. You guys have some real studs on your team (Watt, Foster, Johnson), but in the end , I suspect the two "math problems" above will prove to be the difference.

Well the good news for us as I am sure you will agree, is that you have never faced a team with a superior QB or coach... Like never ever.

[Scooter]

get wilfork on the ground and pressure from only 4 or 5 against brady. this is a game to keep to our strengths, but execute a whole lot better.

we're going to get in trouble if we fall behind early so we need to come out running - literally. obviously we're not going to win a shootout, so frustrate brady on the sidelines and keep it a closer low scoring game. the goal has to be removing wilfork on offense, run traps at him and increase backside blocking on stretch plays to take advantage of wilfork leading the front. if he lines up on the weakside of a stretch, he HAS to be put on the ground and we need big gains off tackle.

on defense, our linebackers have read their keys and drop into zone instead of blitzing if their man stays in to block. if our LB's rush, they will effectively be removing themselves from the play because they wont have time to get to the quarterback. our single deep safety needs to play a whole lot smarter and keep the play in front of him, but otherwise clog the middle of the field because this isnt a homerun offense, it's a 5-15 yard catch and run.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by Texn4life

We still played a lot of man coverage though and that's what Brady eats up. 76 is good at finding film on games so maybe he can find the 2010 season divisional matchup with the Pats and Jets. Rex went against everything he believes in in that game and did not blitz hardly any and played zone a good majority of the time which he doesn't do often. Just saying I wouldn't be surprised if we went with a similar strategy.

I will say though that Shaun Ellis played the game of his life that game. He was able to get pressure on Brady even when they were only rushing 3. One of the best performances I've seen from a 3-4 DE in a playoff game in a long time.

I found that game.
I will take a look at it tonight, hopefully, and wil try to report back.

[76Texan]

Patfanken, I read some of your posts on the pats board yesterday, just as I did for a couple of weeks around the last meeting of the two teams.

Top notch!

I think I'm about ready to look into the matchup tonight.

I do have the all-22.

But even without it, We can already see that the Texans lacked in preparation and execution so often.

For example, we also send our TEs, FB, and RB out wide or into the slots for years now; to see the team not ready for it was just mind-blowing.

I did break down all the plays, but did not take any written notes; it was pointless.

[Fico]

Originally Posted by Foxboro Steve

Brady > Shaub
Belichick > Kubiak

brady and Bilichick have been > than everybody you have played and the Pats still haven't won a ring since 2004.

If we play our game, aggressive defense, run and play action offense, this will be a different game than before. In game 1 we gave to much respect to the Pats in the sense that we got away from what we do best by letting them dictate our play calling on both sides.

[76Texan]

Pats fans, if you like to review the game, I'd like to hear your opinions on our third string right guard, Brandon Brooks. He alternated in every third and fourth series or so.

He's a big guy.
Wilkork didn't line up over up him a whole lot, and he did get some help.
But overall, he did pretty well, I think.

I'm hoping to see more of him in the next matchup, but I think we will alternate him with Ben Jones again (two rookies).

Our veteran RG was already down a long time ago.

[Texans_Chick]

Originally Posted by patfanken

Just stopping by to possibly offer some insights from a Pats fan's point of view, in exchange for some answers to some question I'm having about the Texans.

As far as the defense goes, its a very interesting comparison of styles I've gotten to see 3 Texan games in the last month (Pats, Colts, Cinci) and it seems to me that the Texans play defense with one basic style. An aggressive attacking front 7, supported by a secondary playing tough man to man coverage. It looked like you brought 5 men about 50% of the time.

In contrast the Pats front 7 plays 2 gap, even when in a 4-3. They blitz only about 20% of the time, and the secondary is generally in some kind of zone. I will mention however that recently (as its VERY YOUNG defense got more experienced, and Talib joined the team) they've played more man coverage and blitzed a bit more.

My first question is: Will Wade Phillips continue to "go with what got him here", or can he channel his inner Rex Ryan and pull a 180 and go against his basic philosophy and try to duplicate what the Jets did in the 2010 playoffs?

The Texans are likely to see the Pats at their season long healthiest. The Pats did lose 3 starters to the IR, which by the way, is a very good year for them (LB Dane Fletcher, CB Ras-I Dowling, and WR/PR Julian Edelman). But the OL which has been banged up all year has had a run of 4 games straight where all the starters have played. I think that's the longest stretch of the season.

Gronk has been out as you know and played about 20 snaps in the season ender, so some of the rust got knocked off. But he did favor the broken arm in the game when he blocked. I don't know if the additional 2 weeks rest has improved it. It didn't affect his receiving, but normally Gronk is the best blocking TE in the league. He wasn't against Miami. If he is again on Sunday, then the Pats running game will be improved.

My second question is this: After the Pats scored on its first 3 drives, the Texans for all purposes shut the Pats down for about 2 quarters, with exception of the Hail Mary-like TD pass to Stallworth. Was the Texan success during that stretch the result of an adjustment Wade made, better execution by the Texans, or poor execution by the Pats? I'm wondering if any of you Texan fans who get the "all 22" from NFL.com have broken that down.

Don't sleep on the Pats defense. It IS getting better, even though we are starting 3 rookies (Jones, Hightower, and Dennard) and have 2 more playing certain defensive packages (Wilson and Francis). I shouldn't have to remind you that the vaunted Texan Defense and the much maligned Pats defense allow exactly the same number of points to the opposition.

My Third question - On the opening drive of the first game, the Texans and Arian Foster ripped the Pats D for 3 runs of over 15 yds (one called back on a penalty), forcing the Pats to call a TO. It didn't look good. My question is what happened after that? Foster wound up with only 46 yds, the entire Texan running attack was limited to about 100 yds and 40 of those came on 2 runs.

The Texan running attack looked awesome against the Bengals. Foster was literally breaking the ankles of every Bengal LB out there. What happened in NE last time, and what's changed with the Texans that makes you think that it will be any different this time?

Finally, I can't tell you how impressed, I and most Pats fans were with JJ Watt. He was a big favorite with Pats draftniks when he came out....and there was a time where it looked like he might fall to us, I was both surprised and disappoint when the Texans took him at 11. And what looked like a reach at the time, turned out to be the steal of the draft.

What impressed me most was this. Statistically it would have seemed like the Pats shut him down. This was the ONLY game of the year where Watt didn't have a sack, deflection, or tackle for a loss this season. YET for anyone who watched that game, JJ Watt was the single most impactful defensive player that we have seen this year. (though ASmith was a close 2nd). That's hard to believe given he didn't record a single significant defensive stat.....and STILL stood out from the rest.

BTW- Nate Solder our LT was a nice consolation prize, who eventually will see a lot of Pro bowls, before he's done, but.....

Thanks for you patience, I look forward to your feedback

These are good questions. Thanks for your respectful contribution to this forum. Here's a quick attempt at an answer:

1. Though the Texans blitz a ton, they tend to blitz less against more experienced QBs. So because they faced a lot of less experienced QBs, those numbers tend to be high, but IIRC, the numbers were less against Manning/Brady than their normal.

2. Haven't broken down the all-22 from that game because it was hard enough to watch the first time. I don't think there was a big adjustment from the first half to the second other than (just a feel here) settling down a little bit from the first half and getting adjusted to the pace of play. Patriots are a challenge in a lot of respects, but their pace of play is hard to replicate and get used to.

I think on both sides of the ball, the Texans did not look like themselves, looked like they were pressing some. I thought going into that game it was going to be difficult for them to hit the sweet spot between aggression and flat--where you are just doing what you can do without pressing or playing too cautious. Many more mental errors than had been typical before that. Some of that could be transitional with some issues on defense, some of it is just that the Patriots are a hard matchup for most.

(As an aside, on offense the Texans did not have Garrett Graham for that game due to a concussion. He's a key part of the offense in a year of inexperience at the 3-5 WR position. Unfortunately, he got hit in the head hard against the Bengals. He finished the game (optimism) but when his name came up in today's presser, Kubiak said that all injury issues would be discussed on Wednesday when it is required (pessimism). He is very handy to have in goalline formations, and the Texans use a ton of 2+ TE formations. But they only have 3 TEs on the active roster, and not likely to activate another one if Graham is out).

3. As for the running game, I think two things were of issue. There's been a lack of consistency with it the entire year, and many more run stuffs than is typical of the group. In addition, when the Texans got too far down, at some point you have to say screw it with the run and just pass.

It will be key for the Texans defense not to give up the big play. It can be hard to get your offense on track on the road, and if the Texans get too far behind, there goes the running game.

The good news is that the Texans were able to run against a very physical Bengals defense that is probably even a little underrated because they've had very little help from their offense. Don't know if that means Foster is back, but at least his playoff performances so far have been outstanding. First back in NFL history to get 100+ in first three playoff starts. His game against the Ravens in a loss was impressive given that Andre wasn't quite Andre, and the Texans were starting TJ Yates at QB. Everybody knew the Texans were running. The Ravens defense was good last year. And he was able to be very effective with both the run and receptions.

Texans would like to run on the Patriots. When they can put together good time of possession games, it keeps good QBs on the bench. Going back to their normal average in the red zone would help, but Patriots have a sick red zone percentage this year so there's that.

Difficulty is that few teams have good matchups against the Patriots, and losing Cushing made Wade Phillips task even harder because it reduced his flexibility. The Patriots run defense may be statistically artificially better than it really is because teams have to give up on the run. The flip side is that good offenses sometimes have better pass defenses than the stats say because they get tested so much with teams garbage timing from behind.

Anyway, I wanted to respond to your comment because I thought it was of the sort that is actual football talk and not neener neener talk, and I want to encourage that sort of thing.