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Old 12-17-2012   #1
gtexan02
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Default Playoff advice needed

I'm in the finals of my league. My team is as follows:

QB - Eli Manning
HB1 - Adrian Peterson
HB2 - Trent Richardson
Flex - Reggie Bush or Mikel Lesure or Jeremy Maclin
WR1 - Vincent Jackson
WR2 - Reggie Wayne
TE - Tony Gonzalez
Def - Texans
K - Whoever has been doing well and is playing in a dome (I usually switch this weekly)

We are only allowed 2 bench spots, which is why I only have 2 backups.

So here's my question:
I won last week, barely, because of Adrian Peterson. Eli almost killed me single handedly. Do I replace him? Here are my options:

1. Andy Dalton (averaging 21.4 points a game this season, last 2 games scored 11.5 and 14.5. Playing away at Pittsburgh. Scored 7.4 points against Pittsburgh, at home, in the last game they played each other this season)

2. Joe Flacco (averaging 19.0 points a game this season, last 2 games scored 19.8 and 17.2. Playing home against the Giants. Giants have been giving up big games recently)

3. Russell Wilson (averaging 17.9 points a game this season, last 2 games scored 12.5 and 43.5. At home against SF. Last time they played the 49ers was on the road and he scored 3.8 fantasy points)

4. Sam Bradford (averaging 16.7 points a game this season, last 2 games scored 17.9 and 33.4. Playing on the road against TB. TB has the 2nd most points given up to opposing qbs in my league this season)

5. Jay Cutler (averaging 14.5 points a game, last 2 games scored 14.5 and 8.9. Playing on the road against Arizona)


For comparison, here are Eli's stats:
Averaging 19.7 points per game. Last 2 scores were 30.1 and 3.1. Playing on the road against Baltimore. Baltimore ranks 8th in least points given up to opposing QBs. The last home games they've given up 16 to Peyton (below his average is 25.2), 17.8 to Pitt, 23.2 to Oakland, 20.3 to Dallas, 13.3 to Cleveland, 21.5 to NE, 6.6 to Cincinatti
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Old 12-17-2012   #2
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Default Re: Playoff advice needed

I would stick with Eli, he's the one that got you here. I couldn't live with myself if I replaced my QB week 16 and it cost me a championship.

For example, I didn't make the playoffs in my money league but if I had I was considering benching Rodgers for Freeman. Freeman had been hot and had a great matchup against NO defense. Rodgers on the other hand had 4 lackluster weeks in a row and a matchup in Chicago. Rodgers scored 25 points and Freeman had -5. Had that cost me a playoff game I think I would have quit fantasy football forever.

You gotta dance with the one who brung ya!
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Old 12-17-2012   #3
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Default Re: Playoff advice needed

I would stick with Eli after seeing what the other Manning did to the Ravens this week. The Ravens are just too hurt to take down the Giants right now. If you are deadset on switching him out, I would go with Sam Bradford. Tampa sucks at pass defense, but is "good" against the run. STL can't seem to run very well anyways, and with Amendola back, he should put up some good numbers.

As for your flex, I would go troll the waiver wire for a better selection. There has to be someone good available with only 2 bench spots per team.
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Old 12-18-2012   #4
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Default Re: Playoff advice needed

Good advice all around, thanks guys.
Bradford and Eli are both 'projected' by ESPN to score around the same number of points, so I will probably just stick with Eli

Couple of other tough choices this week to make if anyone is feeling in the mood to suggest alternatives for me:

Eli is in

Adrian Peterson is a lock

Trent Richardson is going against the #2 defense in terms of fewest run points allowed (Denver). He hasn't been getting yards, but he has been getting TDs. Play or sit?

Reggie Bush is going against the 30th ranked defense, and is projected to score 19.7 points. He got me 11.5 last week (anything over 10 is good in our league) Play or sit?

VJax and Reggie Wayne both have tough matchups according to ESPN. VJax is going against STL, who is the 5th toughest matchup while Wayne is going against KC, 17th toughest. I picked up Maclin specifically because he plays Washington this week (31st in points), but now Im hesitating on starting him. With Jackson on IR he's their only pass catcher, but at the same time, he has Nick Foles throwing to him....

Only guy worth picking up in FA is Brandon Loyd (going against a terrible team, but the guy Im playing has Brady)
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Old 12-18-2012   #5
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Default Re: Playoff advice needed

Lloyd has had 25 targets in the last 2 weeks, pick him up ASAP. He's a much better play than Maclin at this point. The Pats lost Stallworth in the game against us, and Welker hasn't looked like himself recently. No Gronk means Hernendez and LLoyd are the top options against the Jags this week.
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Old 12-19-2012   #6
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Default Re: Playoff advice needed

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dutchrudder View Post
Lloyd has had 25 targets in the last 2 weeks, pick him up ASAP. He's a much better play than Maclin at this point. The Pats lost Stallworth in the game against us, and Welker hasn't looked like himself recently. No Gronk means Hernendez and LLoyd are the top options against the Jags this week.
Who do you replace?
Reggie Bush is going against Buffalo and is projected to score 19 for me -- thats higher than Adrian Peterson's projected score. I doubt he gets there, but even 10-12 would be great

I'm not sitting Peterson

Trent Richardson is going against a very tough Denver defense, but he's scored in 4 or 5 straight games and hasn't scored less than 10 points in weeks. Cleveland could get behind Denver early and be forced to throw a lot I suppose. He is projected to score the fewest points of any of my starters, but he has averaged 13.8 points a game in my league -- one of the tops

VJax is getting a ton of targets in Tampa but they're playing a tough Rams defense. Reggie Wayne is in a must win game against a mediocre opponent
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Old 12-19-2012   #7
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Default Re: Playoff advice needed

I think you have to go: AP, Richardson, Bush, Wayne.

VJax & Lloyd is a bit of a tossup, although I lean VJax just because I think NE can win vs. Jags with any number of combinations of RBs, WRs, or TE.

QB is the tougher call for me, although I'd have to start Eli and hope his and the Giants pride after putting up a goose-egg results in them opening up a can of whoop-ass this week.
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Old 12-24-2012   #8
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Default Re: Playoff advice needed

Lost by 1 point. Bradford, Wilson and flacco all would have resulted in a win. $250 to 1st. Ugh, this hurts

F you Eli Manning. I now hate your entire family
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