Dutch's 2013 Texans Offseason Projections and Info

[badboy]

Originally Posted by beerlover

You know guys if you must spread rep then you can always rate thread. Just gave Dutch a Five star, for his excellent work

I don't know its tough to cut players or let them walk via free agency like they did last season. Was this a trend or anomaly?

Tough part for those of us who enjoy the mock draft process is that decisions will be faced & made before the draft that can influence (don't buy into BPA because need wins out end of day) construction of their draft board. Money is obviously a huge factor in this as well as teams scramble to work within salary constraints.

To replace Cody Texans would need to spend a first round pick on a NT.
To replace Antonio Smith Texans would have to spend 1st/2nd on a 5-tech DE.
To replace Wade Smith Texans would have to spend 2nd/3rd on a OG.

OR

They could trade for younger versions still under less costly contracts either under utilized in a bad situation or stuck behind entrenched starter like Myers was in Denver. Also via free agency, with another Wade Smith who I recall was in Kansas City. Texans paid to get Antonio, he has produced so they will continue to pay him most likely.

Texans love Kevin Walter. He is the company man, already restructured contract once will probably have to do it again.

Not to hijack your thread Dutch but based on crop of prospects, team need & cap ramifications I think Texans will be almost forced to look @ taking a replacement for Cody. A big, athletic run stopping DT with work ethic & smarts to actually elevate nose position. John Jenkins, Georgia.

BL, thanks for heads up on rating thread; never done that. Also, I agree with most your post; just don't see Jenkins falling that far, but that has never stopped me from mocking a guy anyway!

Can anyone tell me why Luis Nix is not mocked anywhere? If you have watched Irish Chocolate you have be impressed to at least mock him. I am keeping him in second for now as no one else has him even that high.

[badboy]

[quote=Dutchrudder;2079612]Sorry about that, I screwed up with my original Cap Casualties sheet and made the guaranteed money look like a portion of salary. I meant to do two different things with the columns, and they just merged into one wrong one Now that I'm sober, I fixed it I updated the OP to reflect the new numbers of cap savings and hits. Dead money is also included, but the main thing is the savings is 13.5 million for cutting all three of them. Granted, that is the last thing I want the team to do, but having 20 million in free cap space next year would be incredible.



I think Antonio Smith is a prime candidate for restructuring. He's 31 now, and could add 2 years to his deal at 2 million a year. Then we could convert 5 million of his 2013 base salary into signing bonus and spread that out over the 3 years. That would make him earn 2.67 million in 2013, and 3.67 million in 2014 and 15. His 2013 cap hit would then become 5.47 million, which is much more reasonable than the 9.8. That would net us 4.33 million in 2013 cap savings, and lock him down for 2 more years while they try to groom a replacement.[/QUOTE]

This is what I have been posting on other threads. Question though, Antonio's bonus $12.5 paid '09 prorated by 5= $2.5 m. Base for (now) '13 is $6 m + 2.5 m = $8.5 m cap not $9.8 m. Also new deal his cap for 2013 would be $1 m base (6 m -5 m) + the prorated $1.67 = 2.67 CAP (not earned), right? So rather than '13 cap of 8.5 m it would be 2.67 or saving to cap $5.83 m or $6 m rounded. I think Smith would jump at this and $6 m could bring a big time FA addition. Ryan Clady OT?
Not arguing just trying get straight in my head.

Edit: Smith signed for $35.5 in Feb 2009: we know his bonus was $12.5 and base for '12 is $5.5 & '13 is $6m = $24m so I extrapolate the difference $35 - 24 = $11.5 divide by 3 (2009 season, 2010 & 2011) = $3.83 m. Don't know of any guaranteed money other than bonus.

[beerlover]

Originally Posted by badboy

BL, thanks for heads up on rating thread; never done that. Also, I agree with most your post; just don't see Jenkins falling that far, but that has never stopped me from mocking a guy anyway!

Can anyone tell me why Luis Nix is not mocked anywhere? If you have watched Irish Chocolate you have be impressed to at least mock him. I am keeping him in second for now as no one else has him even that high.

Lets see him test out against that outstanding Alabama OL. If he can win some of those battles, how can NFL advisory board not grade him 1st round? For 3-4 scheme I think he would be a better fit than Lotulelei or Hawkins. If Poe was taken #11th overall Nix is most certainly top 10 thing is this years class is loaded with top tier talent @ DT (reason why Jenkins could drop further than one might think) Still there are plenty of 3-4 teams (Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Washington Redskins) using a variation of the 3-4 always with an eye for talent @ all important NT position. This year, despite Texans possibly picking last in pecking order (does not preclude possible trade up either) to grab one of these big boys to help Watt & Co. Cody being a free agent could open that door per thread

[badboy]

Originally Posted by beerlover

Lets see him test out against that outstanding Alabama OL. If he can win some of those battles, how can NFL advisory board not grade him 1st round? For 3-4 scheme I think he would be a better fit than Lotulelei or Hawkins. If Poe was taken #11th overall Nix is most certainly top 10 thing is this years class is loaded with top tier talent @ DT (reason why Jenkins could drop further than one might think) Still there are plenty of 3-4 teams (Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Washington Redskins) using a variation of the 3-4 always with an eye for talent @ all important NT position. This year, despite Texans possibly picking last in pecking order (does not preclude possible trade up either) to grab one of these big boys to help Watt & Co. Cody being a free agent could open that door per thread

Yep. come on Jan 7th! Those two teams have a lot of talent I'll be watching. Hoping some of those teams you mention will be needing something besides a Nose!

[Dutchrudder]

Originally Posted by badboy

This is what I have been posting on other threads. Question though, Antonio's bonus $12.5 paid '09 prorated by 5= $2.5 m. Base for (now) '13 is $6 m + 2.5 m = $8.5 m cap not $9.8 m. Also new deal his cap for 2013 would be $1 m base (6 m -5 m) + the prorated $1.67 = 2.67 CAP (not earned), right? So rather than '13 cap of 8.5 m it would be 2.67 or saving to cap $5.83 m or $6 m rounded. I think Smith would jump at this and $6 m could bring a big time FA addition. Ryan Clady OT?
Not arguing just trying get straight in my head.

Edit: Smith signed for $35.5 in Feb 2009: we know his bonus was $12.5 and base for '12 is $5.5 & '13 is $6m = $24m so I extrapolate the difference $35 - 24 = $11.5 divide by 3 (2009 season, 2010 & 2011) = $3.83 m. Don't know of any guaranteed money other than bonus.

As I said in the OP, Antonio restructured his deal by converting salary in 2011 to signing bonus. That's why I say there is 3.8 million in guaranteed money coming to him in 2013, 2.5 signing bonus, 1.3 restructure. Granted, it has already been paid out and isn't new money, it still counts against the cap no matter what.

As for my restructure proposal, that 6 million in salary next year is not guaranteed. If 5 of it is converted to signing bonus over 3 years, that's 5 million he is being paid that year, plus the 1 million in salary. So he will still get 6 million in 2013, but 3.33 of it will be moved to '14/15. That's a good amount of cap relief and could net us Glover Quin.

FYI, Ryan Clady turned down 10 million a year from the Broncos to be their LT for the next 5 years. I doubt he will want to take a paycut to become our RT.

[aussie_texan]

Originally Posted by badboy

BL, thanks for heads up on rating thread; never done that. Also, I agree with most your post; just don't see Jenkins falling that far, but that has never stopped me from mocking a guy anyway!

Can anyone tell me why Luis Nix is not mocked anywhere? If you have watched Irish Chocolate you have be impressed to at least mock him. I am keeping him in second for now as no one else has him even that high.

yeah i found this very strange as well. walter football doesn't have him in any mocks and only added him to his list of prospects a week or so ago.
cbssports from memory doesn't even have him in the prospects list.

i think he ends up going in the first, hopefully to us. once sport commentators put on his game tape and watch his combine and pro day he will shoot up mock draft boards. think Kendall Reyes from Connecticut last year that start the year as a 5th round pick ended up going in the 2nd.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

As I said in the OP, Antonio restructured his deal by converting salary in 2011 to signing bonus. That's why I say there is 3.8 million in guaranteed money coming to him in 2013, 2.5 signing bonus, 1.3 restructure. Granted, it has already been paid out and isn't new money, it still counts against the cap no matter what.

As for my restructure proposal, that 6 million in salary next year is not guaranteed. If 5 of it is converted to signing bonus over 3 years, that's 5 million he is being paid that year, plus the 1 million in salary. So he will still get 6 million in 2013, but 3.33 of it will be moved to '14/15. That's a good amount of cap relief and could net us Glover Quin.

FYI, Ryan Clady turned down 10 million a year from the Broncos to be their LT for the next 5 years. I doubt he will want to take a paycut to become our RT.

I saw it in your OP but did not register. When you mention it in this last reply I went "what?" I remembered Ryans and AJ but forgot Smith. In fact googled and when I saw Smith's response it triggered. Thanks for correcting me. Funny, I was using Smith's savings for Quin also. Thanks for the back and forth!

[aussie_texan]

also just wondering where you got all the contract info from, again great work dutch!

[badboy]

Originally Posted by aussie_texan

yeah i found this very strange as well. walter football doesn't have him in any mocks and only added him to his list of prospects a week or so ago.
cbssports from memory doesn't even have him in the prospects list.

i think he ends up going in the first, hopefully to us. once sport commentators put on his game tape and watch his combine and pro day he will shoot up mock draft boards. think Kendall Reyes from Connecticut last year that start the year as a 5th round pick ended up going in the 2nd.

NT for #1 college team and has been on TV many times and no one thinks he rates a top 3 round picks? Hope 31 other team agree he isn't very good. I'd prefer to get a Nose in second or later as I really like T. Williams.

[thunderkyss]

If Antonio doesn't restructure, we're screwed. Would have been nice had Jamison not got hurt, to see if he was ready to fill the void Antonio would leave. I am not comfortable with Crick & do not want to create a need for the draft.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

If Antonio doesn't restructure, we're screwed. Would have been nice had Jamison not got hurt, to see if he was ready to fill the void Antonio would leave. I am not comfortable with Crick & do not want to create a need for the draft.

Why do you think we are screwed? Smith is under contract & IIRC we have about $6m under cap for 2013 with FAs listed above in this thread. Just have to be selective with whom we re-sign. Hopefully Crick will be ready in '14 to replace Smith and Brooks to replace Wade Smith. Selective FAs & another good draft and we will be just fine.

[Dutchrudder]

Originally Posted by aussie_texan

also just wondering where you got all the contract info from, again great work dutch!

Sporttrac and rotoworld for most of it, but its good to verify with other sources for stuff like restuctures.

[Dutchrudder]

Originally Posted by Fiddler

If Antonio doesn't restructure, we're screwed. Would have been nice had Jamison not got hurt, to see if he was ready to fill the void Antonio would leave. I am not comfortable with Crick & do not want to create a need for the draft.

I certainly wouldn't say we are screwed. 3.8 million of his caphit is guaranteed no matter what, the team has already paid it and it will hit the 2013 cap. The 6 million is flexible, meaning that it can be erased from the books, or possibly restructured. If he was willing to take an outright paycut of 2-3 million, I would do it and guarantee the rest of his salary that year. If he's not willing to budge, then cut him loose and spend the 6 million elsewhere. He's not irreplaceable at all.

Kevin Walter's deal is another option in the team's favor. 4.5 million not guaranteed is easy to work with for Rick Smith. Either Walter does what they want, or he can take a hike and try to get that money elsewhere. Good luck getting 3+ million for a guy with his resume at 31. I expect him to restructure down to 2 million this year or be cut. He's overpaid as it is right now.

Wade Smith I expect to stay put. The cap savings from him is small compared to the others, but I just don't think he's as replaceable as the others. Keep him one more year and find another guard in the meantime.

[Exascor]

Just gotta say awesome as always Dutch. Sorry I missed it earlier. Just wow... Rep incoming.

[badboy]

Originally Posted by Dutchrudder

I certainly wouldn't say we are screwed. 3.8 million of his caphit is guaranteed no matter what, the team has already paid it and it will hit the 2013 cap. The 6 million is flexible, meaning that it can be erased from the books, or possibly restructured. If he was willing to take an outright paycut of 2-3 million, I would do it and guarantee the rest of his salary that year. If he's not willing to budge, then cut him loose and spend the 6 million elsewhere. He's not irreplaceable at all.

Kevin Walter's deal is another option in the team's favor. 4.5 million not guaranteed is easy to work with for Rick Smith. Either Walter does what they want, or he can take a hike and try to get that money elsewhere. Good luck getting 3+ million for a guy with his resume at 31. I expect him to restructure down to 2 million this year or be cut. He's overpaid as it is right now.

Wade Smith I expect to stay put. The cap savings from him is small compared to the others, but I just don't think he's as replaceable as the others. Keep him one more year and find another guard in the meantime.

At the time Chris Olsen was hired, I had no idea how valuable he would be. This team is rounding out nicely and under the cap, also. Looks like we can continue to shop for reasonable FAs to add depth. Maybe a Manning type deal for a vet starter, if something great comes along.

[Dutchrudder]

Well, I did some homework and created a projected cap number spreadsheet. I think I accounted for just about everything I could possibly find, but some of it is still wishy washy. Unfortunately the lower tier contracts are simply not important enough to be reported in detail, and that adds to the mystery of NFL cap projections. I'll discuss that more below, but without further ado, here are my cap projections!







Drum roll please....

























Hooray numbers!




2012 Cap:

So the first thing that might jump out at you is the 2012 cap number being 121,905,328. You might be thinking, "Dutch, you blithering son of a biatch! How can the Texans have a higher cap number than the actual cap of 120.6 million?"

Well, in my analysis, I could not find any hard numbers on the cost of some of our IR'd vets: Kenyaron Fox, Rashon Harris, Tim Jamison, Rashad Butler and even Randy Bullock. I suspect that at least a couple of these are split contracts, but I couldn't find anything conclusive, so I'm counting them at the value that they would have otherwise been. If we were to assume a 50% split contract on each of them, their cap hits would collectively be reduced by 1,967,500, which would put the Texans just a hair under 120 million. It's also worth mentioning the fact that our current active roster is only costing the team 97.8 million. That's pretty cheap given the results, but it means we are drafting well and keeping costs down.

The next thing that might jump out at you is the 2013 cap projection of $109,206,020, or in other words, 11.394 million in cap space (assuming 120.6m cap). You might be thinking to yourself, "Dutch this is great news, I take back all the awful things I said about you and your mother!" However, there is a catch. This projection only includes the 41 contracts that will count against the cap in 2013, so there are still 12 open spaces to fill on the 53 man roster, which will use at least 405k each. Here is the current minimum salary matrix:


As you can see, everything is escalating 15k across the board (cap hit is 555k for vet minimum players). I think 500k per player is a reasonable estimate for these 12 spots, so that would be up to 6 million more taken away from the cap. That gives us a projected real cap value of 115.2 million, or about 5.4 million in extra free space, depending on how you want to look at it. You might be thinking to yourself, "Dammit Dutch, can't you let me bathe in the warmth of imagining the Texan's signing Mike Wallace and Dwight Freeney for just one minute before you come in and defenestrate my dreams!"

No, sorry, I cannot do that =P

But fear not! As mentioned in the OP, there is 13.5 million in cap cuts available to the team if needed, so it's not nearly as dire of a situation as it appears. Yes, we will be squeezed a bit next year, but we will not be in as bad of a situation as many other teams who do not have this flexibility.

Dead Money:

One of the toughest things to figure out in cap projections is dead money, the money left over from cutting players, trading them or if they retire. This is my current list of dead money projections:



I pulled a good deal of this from Sporttrac, and I searched for what I could on the big names. You might be thinking, "Dutch, you inglorious halfwit nincompoop! How on earth does Demeco cost 9 million after we traded him??" Well, I'll let Alan Burge explain it:

Ryans' dead money estimates were all over the place Tuesday evening. Adam Caplan and I were going back and forth on the subject on Twitter for a good half-hour and I finally tapped out when we got to the point that the Texans would lose cap space on the deal. Hopefully that's not true but Ryan's $7.5 million signing bonus in 2010 prorates at $1.25 million per year - and with 4 years remaining on his deal, that accelerates $5 million. Plus, Ryans had another restructure in 2011 that reduced his base pay by about $5 million. When you prorate that (on top of the original proration) you get $2.25 per year over the remaining four years or $9 million in dead money. Ryans' cap hit was somewhere around $8 million this year. You do the math.

http://www.examiner.com/article/texa...ge-trade-ryans

It appears that this is the case, but the good news is that it's a one-time cost. After this year, we will have cleared over 16 million in dead weight from the books and will use it to pay guys like Duane Brown and Matt Schaub into the future.

Other guys that may not cost as much as listed are Eric Winston and Jacoby Jones. We know that both had a few years left on their deals when they were cut, but I'm not certain that we know how the money will be spread out. Winston had 2 million left on his deal, but he could have been designated a June 1st cut (he was cut in May), and that would split his 2m between 2012 and 2013.

Personally, I'm not sold on the idea that Jacoby only had 1m guaranteed left on his deal. Another site mentions he will cost the Texans 2.5 million after his cut:

The Texans parted ways with WR/PR Jacoby Jones, releasing him on Tuesday. The move will cost the team $2.5 million.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/nf...ports/18924788
So it could be that he cost 1.25 million this year and next, or it could be wrong. I just don't have confirmation either way, so I'll roll with 1 million for now.

Practice Squad:

So, this often gets overlooked, but the Practice Squad guys can actually cost a bit. This year, it costs $5,700 per player, per week (17 regular season), plus each playoff week, and you can have up to 8 of these guys active at any time. Our current roster with cap hit projections:



You may look at this and say yourself, "Dutch, you are as sharp as a bowling ball! There are 9 people on your list and the costs are going down from year to year!" Well, given the salary structure above, I'm projecting 2 weeks of playoff pay, and that will hopefully go up. That's why the 2012 figure is higher than 13/14. Also, Phillip Supernaw was placed on the Psquad Injured list in October, so I'm projecting 11 weeks of pay for him this year. That gives us a total of 929,100 on the season, which is subject to change. These are just baseline minimum projections though, teams are allowed to pay more than the minimum to players on the practice squad, but most don't. I have no sources showing that the Texans paid more than minimum for any of these players, but if anyone else sees something please post it!

Edit: I now realize I still have Brice McCain on the active roster and not in the IR section. I'm not going to redo all those pics just for that, so whatever, but feel free to consider 1.333 million in the IR list instead of the active roster. This doesn't change the bottom line, unless he has something in his contract about going on IR.

[steelbtexan]

Originally Posted by badboy

NT for #1 college team and has been on TV many times and no one thinks he rates a top 3 round picks? Hope 31 other team agree he isn't very good. I'd prefer to get a Nose in second or later as I really like T. Williams.

Dont have a link, but Nix said he was returning to school.

[badboy]

So $5.4 clear under cap & approx $13.5 if needed for right player(s) and from that we have to decide which of our own FA to keep? I had guesstimated about 15. Thanks for the info as always!

[rmartin65]

Awesome Dutch... just awesome. Quick question- how do rookie salaries fit into the whole shebang?

[Dutchrudder]

Originally Posted by badboy

So $5.4 clear under cap & approx $13.5 if needed for right player(s) and from that we have to decide which of our own FA to keep? I had guesstimated about 15. Thanks for the info as always!

Well, it depends on how you look at it. 11.X million is my best guess as to how much we have on the books for 2013 at the moment, but that's only 41 of 53 players, and it includes 17 weeks of a full Practice Squad. I'm suggesting that we assume that those 12 spots will eat up 500k a piece, which will take the free space down to 5.x million. So if you want to add a free agent that will cost 3.5 million dollars in 2013, you need to subtract 3 million from the estimate, leaving 2.x million. I'm just trying to fend off the "we have 11 million in free space, let's spend 9 of it on Mike Wallace" type comments. It's not truly empty space. Even at the bare minimum of 405k per player, those 12 spots will cost 4.86 million.

Originally Posted by rmartin65

Awesome Dutch... just awesome. Quick question- how do rookie salaries fit into the whole shebang?

Well, I'm not really accounting for them in this. I'm just assuming those 12 spots will be filled by players that cost 500k a piece. Most of the rookies will be slightly above that, somewhere in the 500-700k range this year. So the 2nd-7th guys will cost maybe a little more than the projection has now, but not too much. Brandon Harris was 600k last year, 750k this year; Reed was 850k last year, 1.06m this year; compared to Mercilus who is 1,388,016 this year.

If we have a 1st round pick, he will likely cost about 1-2 million dollars in 2013. That's the most significant cost, and quite honestly, I think it would be wise to trade out of the 1st to save some cap money, move to the top of the 2nd and spend a lot of low picks pushing 4/5 rounders up to 2nds or 3rds. We wasted a lot of dead money on guys like Keo, McManis and others who were late picks, and I'd rather not have so many late picks that will just be cut due to numbers.