The All Encompassing FIRE KUBIAK thread

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by Foxboro Steve

That's a problem that Brady's gonna identify every time...LB's on Hernandez are generally a mismatch. If there's one that's suspect to begin with...he should be shadowing RB's, and put someone else out on Hernandez. That's a DC issue IMO.

Right, and the DC is Wade Phillips who still has a winning record against BB's teams.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by wolf123

This thread will be around forever...

Until we win the SB, at least.

Or maybe if we win it by one point, it will be brought back again, LOL!

[buddyboy]

Originally Posted by eriadoc

It will continue to be moved, but your reasoning is dead wrong. The reason is actually much simpler - we want a Super Bowl. When you're a 2-14 team, the target is to improve. When you're an 8-8 team, the target becomes having a winning record and maybe making the payoffs. When you've made the playoffs, the target becomes winning a Super Bowl. If you seriously think your team is a Super Bowl contender, then you expect to see certain indicators to that effect. Winning games against elite competition is one such indicator. Losing those games tends to indicate that your team will lose big games in the playoffs. Hence the frustration.

Originally Posted by Double Barrel

If you are satisfied with a great regular season team, then this is a good question.

Some of us want more than just a great regular season team. Some of us recognize that the regular season is merely a means to an end.

Great teams are forged in the playoffs against other great teams. So far, our team does not look like they are quite ready to compete at that level.

I love me some 11-2 like anyone, but the difference is that I'm not celebrating the record. Their record will be 0-0 come January, and all that regular season stuff was just jockeying for position.

These are both good posts and worth discussing. The frustration here comes from, "we're good at beating mediocre to bad teams, we can't beat elite teams".

Which, from the two games this season, seems accurate. If we take the two games against Green Bay and against New England in a vaccuum, all indications are that this team will not succeed in the playoffs against elite caliber teams.

But really, if we're judging our team for playoff success/failure, it's not fair to judge them based on regular season success/failure, is it? We've seen recent Super Bowl winners have regular season mediocrity, yet post-season dominance. How can we extrapolate this to the playoffs when we've seen a grand total of ONE playoff run with Kubiak with a backup quarterback.

If we go to the playoffs this year and lay an egg, it'll be painful. If we go to the playoffs the following year and lay another egg, it's time for change.

Until then, if our goal is the Super Bowl, do you guys really think a head coaching change is the quickest way to that end? The moaning about Kubiak confuses me sometimes about whether people want change or they're just complaining for the sake of complaining.

[eriadoc]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

...stats...

Tell you what, here's what I know, beyond the shadow of a doubt. Every single time they've run the draw play this year on 3rd and long inside their own 35, they've failed except once. I can go back and pull up game logs if I were so inclined, but I'm not. They're run it in just about every game at least once, multiple times in a couple others. They have succeeded with it ONCE. That's the stat I'm talking about. You want to take it to a more general place, but that's not where I'm going with it. I don't have a problem with Kubiak's 3rd down calls across the board. I have a problem with his play calling in very specific situations. Generally speaking, he does a great job. I've said that repeatedly in many of my posts. He's a great X's and O's guy. He just has no feel for adjustments and he goes to the "quit to fight another day" card way too fast. You can interpret the stuff you're looking up any way you want. I know what my eyes have told me, and if you want another data point, just go read the gameday threads. In the moment, when the play is being called, read what's being posted. Plenty of people are seeing the same thing I am.

[eriadoc]

Originally Posted by buddyboy

But really, if we're judging our team for playoff success/failure, it's not fair to judge them based on regular season success/failure, is it?

There's a big difference between judgment and prediction.

[utahmark]

Originally Posted by DX-TEX

He has not coached in 6 years. Does he even want to coach? does not seem like it. If he did decide to coach would he have the same fire as he used to have? Would he dedicate his life to out team? If we did get him would it take 13 years to win a superbowl? That's how long it took in pittsburgh. You really willing to wait 13 years? I think Cowher is happy where he is. I would'nt want him anyway.

Do all you guys wanting a new coach think our players on offense would be good in any other system. Our offensive line would need a complete overhaul. Our recievers would need a huge upgrade. I'm not ready to rebuild our team. I know some coaches come in and win right away but only if the right players are in place for what they want to do and unless you think Kyle Shanahan is ready to become a head coach we don't have the right players to win in any other system, At least on offense.

Unless the Harbaugh's have another brother I don't know about or this team loses the next 3 regular season games and gets knocked out in the first round of the playoff's I would rather stick to with what has gotten us here. Keep showing up in the playoff's and maybe we might just get hot at the right time. Thats really the key to winning it all anyway.

[Marcus]

Originally Posted by Double Barrel

Just one quick question: Who picked the players?

That is absolutely no reason to be excusing player performance. I've seen that response come up every single time we have this never ending proverbial players vs. coaches debate, and I think it's weak. The players need to be held just as accountable as the coaches. To only point a finger at the coaches, screams "quick fix". And quick fixes do not exist.

[utahmark]

Originally Posted by eriadoc

Tell you what, here's what I know, beyond the shadow of a doubt. Every single time they've run the draw play this year on 3rd and long inside their own 35, they've failed except once. I can go back and pull up game logs if I were so inclined, but I'm not. They're run it in just about every game at least once, multiple times in a couple others. They have succeeded with it ONCE. That's the stat I'm talking about. You want to take it to a more general place, but that's not where I'm going with it. I don't have a problem with Kubiak's 3rd down calls across the board. I have a problem with his play calling in very specific situations. Generally speaking, he does a great job. I've said that repeatedly in many of my posts. He's a great X's and O's guy. He just has no feel for adjustments and he goes to the "quit to fight another day" card way too fast. You can interpret the stuff you're looking up any way you want. I know what my eyes have told me, and if you want another data point, just go read the gameday threads. In the moment, when the play is being called, read what's being posted. Plenty of people are seeing the same thing I am.

He is not running the play to get a first down. He is running it to protect our QB from our non-pass blocking offensive line. We saw that we could'nt win in the playoff's without Schaub. I think this year he would like to see if we can win with him.

[eriadoc]

Originally Posted by buddyboy

Until then, if our goal is the Super Bowl, do you guys really think a head coaching change is the quickest way to that end? The moaning about Kubiak confuses me sometimes about whether people want change or they're just complaining for the sake of complaining.

I can't speak for anyone else, but for me, it's about pointing out the shortcomings I see in an effort to wake people up to the realization about Kubiak that I came to long ago. I don't expect Kubiak to be fired tomorrow, nor would I want that. But I do not believe that he will ever win a Super Bowl with this team and I do not trust him to win big games.

Honestly, this thread is no different than the ongoing Fire David Carr thread back in the day. Some people came to the conclusion that Carr was not the guy long before others did and tried to explain why they came to that conclusion. Other people bashed them for their opinion and argued against it. We'll see who's wrong or right about this issue, but it isn't about that, IMO. It's about identifying weaknesses in the team and analyzing it. Every single week this team goes up against a good team, the checkmark for coaching goes to the other team. That's an area that can be improved. Since I want this team to win a Super Bowl, I am going to keep pointing out that deficiency in the hopes that enough people will finally recognize the truth and sway public opinion. Plenty of people will disagree with me, and that's fine. I'm trying to be as respectful in my arguments as possible, because it's all just opinion.

[eriadoc]

Originally Posted by utahmark

He is not running the play to get a first down.

That's kind of my point all along.

[Foxboro Steve]

Originally Posted by eriadoc

Tell you what, here's what I know, beyond the shadow of a doubt. Every single time they've run the draw play this year on 3rd and long inside their own 35, they've failed except once. I can go back and pull up game logs if I were so inclined, but I'm not. They're run it in just about every game at least once, multiple times in a couple others. They have succeeded with it ONCE. That's the stat I'm talking about. You want to take it to a more general place, but that's not where I'm going with it. I don't have a problem with Kubiak's 3rd down calls across the board. I have a problem with his play calling in very specific situations. Generally speaking, he does a great job. I've said that repeatedly in many of my posts. He's a great X's and O's guy. He just has no feel for adjustments and he goes to the "quit to fight another day" card way too fast. You can interpret the stuff you're looking up any way you want. I know what my eyes have told me, and if you want another data point, just go read the gameday threads. In the moment, when the play is being called, read what's being posted. Plenty of people are seeing the same thing I am.

What's third and long? Third and 6? Third and 18? Third and 25? Many teams will run a draw on a "third and a mile" to set up the punt in that instance. They give up the offensive series for field position. In short, lose the battle (the series) win the war (field position/game). If the D goes 3 and out then you gain in field position.

Posts like yours above would get crucified on the Pats boards. Guys would expect you to site a trend, and not talk about generalities. It would help if you gave some stats beyond the Pats game. I am not saying you're wrong, I am saying show me the evidence to back up your point more than just your frustration with play calling.

[eriadoc]

Originally Posted by Marcus

That is absolutely no reason to be excusing player performance. I've seen that response come up every single time we have this never ending proverbial players vs. coaches debate, and I think it's weak. The players need to be held just as accountable as the coaches. To only point a finger at the coaches, screams "quick fix". And quick fixes do not exist.

I agree with this, with the caveat that it's the coach's job to put players in position to succeed. When a coach picks a player that has a very low chance of succeeding and then puts him in positon, and he fails, there's only so much blame you can put on the player. When I look at rookie Ben Jones getting blown up by Vince Wolfork, I recognize that Ben Jones is not getting the job done. But why was he put in that position? In part because Kubiak thought he could do without Winston and/or Brisiel. In part because the guy Kubiak really thought could do the job (Caldwell) couldn't, even when he was healthy. When Jacoby Jones dropped that punt in the Ravens game after displaying a tendency to do that for YEARS, I screamed obscenities at him through my TV set. When Kubiak put Jacoby back out there multiple times after that, I redirected my ire.

Kubiak absolutely bears a large percentage of the blame for his players not getting the job done. There are places where it's all on the player, for sure, but there are plenty of places that you can easily point to Kubiak.

[eriadoc]

Originally Posted by Foxboro Steve

Guys would expect you to site a trend, and not talk about generalities.

As I said in the post you quoted, I can go to the game logs and so can anyone else. Frankly, it's not a disputed point around here. We all know, even the people who disagree with my conclusions, what plays I'm talking about.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by eriadoc

Tell you what, here's what I know, beyond the shadow of a doubt. Every single time they've run the draw play this year on 3rd and long inside their own 35, they've failed except once. I can go back and pull up game logs if I were so inclined, but I'm not. They're run it in just about every game at least once, multiple times in a couple others. They have succeeded with it ONCE. That's the stat I'm talking about. You want to take it to a more general place, but that's not where I'm going with it. I don't have a problem with Kubiak's 3rd down calls across the board. I have a problem with his play calling in very specific situations. Generally speaking, he does a great job. I've said that repeatedly in many of my posts. He's a great X's and O's guy. He just has no feel for adjustments and he goes to the "quit to fight another day" card way too fast. You can interpret the stuff you're looking up any way you want. I know what my eyes have told me, and if you want another data point, just go read the gameday threads. In the moment, when the play is being called, read what's being posted. Plenty of people are seeing the same thing I am.

Here are the numbers for this year.

With the run:

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...order_by=yards

There have been very few true situations there.

When we have a lead in the fourth, running is not a bad choice.
When the half is about to end, running is not a bad choice.
When your team is back inside its own ten, running is not a bad choice.
When the outcome of the game is already clear, it doesn't matter what you do.

With the pass:

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...order_by=yards

Clearly we used the pass a whole more, especially when you consider where we are on the field, what the scores are, etc.

[Marcus]

Originally Posted by wolf123

This thread will be around forever...

Look on the bright side . . at least there's only ONE of them. Before someone came up with the "all encompassing" idea with that quarterback who won't be named, there was 50 fricken thousand of them.

[Porky]

Originally Posted by rmartin65

This.

Kubiak is an above-average coach. He can draw up plays with the best of them, his players love him, and he has taken us from 2-14 to 11-2. But he is terrible at deviating from his pre-determined gameplan, clock management, and all things defense (think of the DCs he hired before Wade was hired).

But until there is someone out there who is better than Kubiak, we should roll with Kubiak. There is no sense in making a change just for the hell of it.

This

[Foxboro Steve]

Originally Posted by 76Texan

Here are the numbers for this year.

With the run:

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...order_by=yards

There have been very few true situations there.

When we have a lead in the fourth, running is not a bad choice.
When the half is about to end, running is not a bad choice.
When your team is back inside its own ten, running is not a bad choice.
When the outcome of the game is already clear, it doesn't matter what you do.

With the pass:

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...order_by=yards

Clearly we used the pass a whole more, especially when you consider where we are on the field, what the scores are, etc.

I didn't know you could do that. nice job.

[76Texan]

Take the time to go through each situation from both those links.

At the end of the day, people should realize that all this third and long stuff is just smoke.

[76Texan]

Originally Posted by Foxboro Steve

I didn't know you could do that. nice job.

I stumbled on it earlier this year, it's a new feature.

[Marcus]

Originally Posted by eriadoc

I agree with this, with the caveat that it's the coach's job to put players in position to succeed. When a coach picks a player that has a very low chance of succeeding and then puts him in positon, and he fails, there's only so much blame you can put on the player. When I look at rookie Ben Jones getting blown up by Vince Wolfork, I recognize that Ben Jones is not getting the job done. But why was he put in that position? In part because Kubiak thought he could do without Winston and/or Brisiel. In part because the guy Kubiak really thought could do the job (Caldwell) couldn't, even when he was healthy. When Jacoby Jones dropped that punt in the Ravens game after displaying a tendency to do that for YEARS, I screamed obscenities at him through my TV set. When Kubiak put Jacoby back out there multiple times after that, I redirected my ire.

Kubiak absolutely bears a large percentage of the blame for his players not getting the job done. There are places where it's all on the player, for sure, but there are plenty of places that you can easily point to Kubiak.

And that falls flat when you consider what choices he had at that particular time. When Ben Jones, the rookie, wasn't getting the job done, who did he have an an alternative at the time. When he using Jacoby Jones at the time, what was his alternative, at the time? Just a little bit too much second guessing born out of hindsight, but I realize by now, this is the way it works. Monday morning quarterbacking reigning supreme.