Originally Posted by 76Texan
Since 2007 (I used this as to refer to the time that Schaub first arrived in Houston), on 3rd or 4th and longer than 15, the league average in converting these long situations is 11.1%
The Texans converted at a clip of 10.4% with the pass (48 attempts, and 14.3% with the run (28 attempts.)
Which would rather go with?
You're either not reading my posts or not getting it. I don't have heartburn with 3rd and long running, or passing. Do whichever they want. Just mix it up. Don't do the same 3rd and long draw to the right that they almost always do. Mix in a screen, bubble screen, toss play, draw to the LEFT (Woohoo!), outlet pass over the middle to the back, slant-go route, double move ... there are plays that you can run that are sufficiently conservative that have a chance to succeed and that mix up your look on film for scouting purposes. Doing the same thing every time is effectively quitting not only on that play, but in future games when teams play your tendencies.
Also, 3rd and 15 has its own set of stats, but the Texans do it on 3rd and 9 inside their own 35. So while I appreciate your point, it's not 100% applicable.